Kulkarni Glacier August27 Revised
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Transcript of Kulkarni Glacier August27 Revised
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MONITORING OF HIMALAYAN GLACIERSAND SNOW COVER
ANIL V. KULKARNI
PROJECT COORDINATORSNOW AND GLACIER PROJECT
SPACE APPLICATIONS CENTRE INDIAN SPACE RESEARCH ORGANISATION
AHMEDABAD-380015, INDIA
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• Himalayas has one of the largest concentration of glacier-stored water out side the Polar Regions. Himalayas has approx. 33,000 sq km area under glaciers.
• During winter large areas of Himalayas covered by seasonal snow.
• Basic information about snow and glaciers is difficult to obtain due to inaccessible terrain and extreme weather conditions. Satellite remote sensing with high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution can provide vital information about various aspects of snow and glaciers.
IMPORTANCE OF SNOW AND GLACIERS
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GLACIATION HISTORY OF THE EARTH
The Earth has experienced three major and four inter glacier periods in last 350 Thousand years.
During interglacial period the atmospheric temperature was higher and it was well synchronized with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.
However, during peak of paleo interglacial period, concentration of carbon dioxide was lower than 300 ppm and present concentration is around 380 ppm.
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GEOMORPHOLOGY OF HIMALAYAN GLACIERS: SAMUDRA TAPU GLACIER, H.P., INDIA
Tributaryglacier
Ablation area
Accumulation area
Moraine
Moraine-dammedlake
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IRS LISS IV26 Aug. 2008Zanskar basin(J & K)
lake
Ablationarea
Accumulationarea
Lateral moraine
Snow line
Glacier boundary
Tributaryglacier
Snout
GLACIER FEATURES
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SPECTRAL REFLECTANCE OF SNOW, ICE AND OTHER FEATURES
(Kulkarni et. al. 2007)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
350 850 1350 1850wavelength (nm)
Re
fle
cta
nce
snow
cont. snow
soil
ice
vegetation
water
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DISRIBUTION OF GLACIERS IN THE HIMALAYA(FROM: Kulkarni et. al., 1991, 1996, 2005)
Basin Year ofData
Number of glaciers,glacieretssnowfield
Arealextent (sq km)
Satluj (H.P.) 1993 2322 2697
Tista (Sikkim) 1997 284 692
Dhauli Ganga(Uttarakhand)
1996 108 229
Chenab (H.P.) 2001 1186 1420
Total ----- 3900 5038
Basin Scale Year ofData
Glaciernumber
Arealextent (sq km)
IndianHimalaya
250000 1988 1702 23,300
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RETREAT OF PARBATI GLACIER
Dead ice zone
LISS-III and PAN1998
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Cumulative percent area
Alt
itu
de
(m)Dead ice zone
LISS-IV: 2004
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Cumulative percent area
Alt
itu
de
(m)
AREA ALTITUDE DISTRIBUTION
Year Area (sq. km)
Loss in area(sq. km)
Cumulative loss in length (m)
Rate m/yr.
1990 40.14 ----- ----
1998 38.21 1.93 459 57
2000 37.73 0.48 22 11
2001 36.87 0.84 97 97
2004 130 43
2006 76 38
Loss 1990-2006 784 49
Snow line altitude at the end of ablation seasonSnow line altitude at the end of ablation season
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RETREAT OF GLACIERS IN INDIAN HIMALAYA
Parbati (1990-06)
Sara Umaga (1989-2004)
Gangotri (1976-1996)
Dokriani Bamak (1991-2007)
Hamta (1961-2005)
Samudra Tapu (1993-2000)
Pindari (1966-2007)
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SAMUDRA TAPU GLACIER, HIMACHAL PRADESH IRS LISS IV IMAGERY
SEPTEMBER 16, 2006
Year Area of Glacier (sq. km.)
Cumulative Loss in Area (ha)
Annual loss in area (ha/y)
1976 72.41 --- ---- 1989 72.17 24 1.8 2000 71.93 48 2.1 2006 71.83 58 1.6
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
ANNUAL LOSS OF GLACIER AREA IN INDIAN HIMALAYA1962 - 2001/4
116
111
253
189166
9019
126187
6057
Mean rate of area loss 0.39 % per year
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MOUNTAIN GLACIER RETREAT IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE WORLD
From: Racoviteanu et al. 2008
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FRAGMENTATION OF GLACIER: CHENAB
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FRAGMENTATION OF GLACIERS CHENAB BASIN
(Kulkarni et al 2007)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.2 0.32 0.86 1.4 3.5 5.6 14.3 23 57 91 360area (km^2)
No.
of G
laci
ers
1962
2001
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CAUSES OF FRAGMENTATION
Ice melt near Gomukh, Gangotri glacier. Less melt near Gomukh. (Source: Maruthi et.al., 2003)
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
Melt in cm
Hei
gh
t
Glacier mass balance for 228 glaciers distributed through out the globe, Cumulative mean ice loss is 20 m w.e. out of 100 m. Disintegrating many glaciers (Zemp et al., 2009)
Fragmentation will have profound impact on glacial retreat. It effectively reduces depth, response time and accelerates retreat.
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GLACIERS IN PARBATI BASIN
EFFECT OF FRAGMENTATION ON RETREAT: CHENAB
1962
2004
52H12003
52H12004Glacial ice
Fragmentation will have profound impact on glacial retreat. It effectively reduces depth, response time and accelerates retreat.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
<1 1 to 5 5 to 10 > 10
Glacier area (sq km)
Are
a lo
ss fr
om 1
962-
2001
(%)
Influence of glacier size on retreat
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Glacier Area (sq km)
Lo
ss in
are
a in
% P
er y
ear
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Chandra
Sept. 6, 5
Sept. 6, 5
GLACIERS ZERO AAR: BHAGA: 18 CHANDRA: 4 BASPA 4
MEAN SP. MASS BALANCE: 19 GLACIRS BASPA BASIN2001: - 40 cm 2002: -78 cm 2004: -57 cm
Loss of glacial ice: 0.11735 cu km/year
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Accumulation area ratio
Ma
ss
ba
lan
ce
(c
m)
R = 0.89
DEVELOPMENT OF MODEL TO ESTIMATE MASS BALANCE: BASPA BASIN
(KULKARNI 1992, 2004)
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CHANGES IN MASS BALANCE IN HIMALAYA
BASPA: Snowline shift 4900- 5200 m between 1976 TO 2006 AAR FROM 0.7 TO 0.3.
In the Himalaya no systematic record is available. Maximum alt. of snow line is shifted from 4800 m to 5200 m from mid 1980 to 2008. This is significantly affecting mass balance
Snow line altitude at the end of summer on Chhotha Shigri glacier
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
5300
5400
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year of observation
sno
w l
ine
alti
tud
e m
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Warwan: 340 glaciers
1975-90
2000-06
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Warwan: 340 glaciers
1975-90
2000-06
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CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECEPITATION IN WESTERN HIMALAYA
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04 2006-07
Year
Pre
cip
itati
on
(cm
)
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
From: Shekhar et. al., 2009
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MODELING GLACIAL CHANGES PARBATI GLACIER
OBSERVATIONS
Arial extent of glacier in 2001 23.7 km2
Accumulation area in 2001 3.56 km2
Accumulation Area Ratio in 2001 0.138
Estimated glacial mass balance 2001 -86 cm
Estimated depth of glacier in 2001 126 m
Measured rate of melting at snout -6 m/year
Measured glacier length in 2001 10120 m
PREDICTIONS
Estimated response time from 2001 21 years
Estimated loss in glacial length from 2001 to 2022 1461 m (69 m/y)
VALIDATION
Measured loss in glacial length from 2001 to 2006 206 m (41 m/y)
Kulkarni et al., Current Science 88(11), 2005
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SNOW STUDIES
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SNOW COVER MONITORING USING NDSI METHOD
DISCRIMINATION of SNOW and CLOUDs, SNOW UNDER MOUNTAIN SHADOW
FCCFCC NDSI
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Snow accumulation and ablation pattern in basins located in different parts of Himalaya
Ravi basin (10 Daily)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun
Date
% A
real exte
nt
of
Sn
ow
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Bhaga basin (10 Daily)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun
Date
% A
real exte
nt
of
Sn
ow
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
0
20
40
60
80
100
1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun
Date
% A
real
exte
nt
of
sn
ow
year 04-05 year05-06 year 06-07
Alaknanda basin (10 Daily)
TISTA BASIN (COMPOSITE) 2004-2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
O N D J F M A M J
MONTHS
% A
RE
AL
EX
TE
NT
OF
SN
OW
2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008
OCT DEC FEB APR JUN
Mean snow fall Western Himalaya: 2004-5: 739 cm; 2005-6: 606 cm; 2006-7: 596 cm
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SNOW DEPLETION CURVE:BEAS BASIN ALTITUDE 3000-3600 m
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 85 88 90 92
Year of observations
Dis
char
ge
(cu
mec
s)
5-yr running average December
INCREASE IN STREAM RUNOFF OF BASPA BASIN FOR DECEMBER BETWEEN 1966 TO 1993 IS FROM 8 TO 14 CUMECS
(Kulkarni et. al. 2002 and 2003)
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DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AND GLACIER MELT RUNOFF
MODEL FOR MICRO AND MINI RIVER BASINS
(Kulkarni et. al. 2002)
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SEASONAL SNOW AND GLACIER MELT RUNOFF MODELING(Pre-feasibility investigation, Autumn, winter, summer, Monsoon )
Q=c{a(T*G)}+c{S*W)-(M*Sw)} + (c*P*B) Where,
Q = Average seasonal runoff (cu m/s)
C = Runoff coefficient
a = Melt factor (cm/degree C.d)
T = Average seasonal degree-day (degree.day)
G = Area of snow and glaciers (sq km)
S = Area of seasonal snow (sq km)
W = Water equivalent of winter snow fall (m)
M = Winter snow melt (m)
Sw= Snow cover in winter
P = Average seasonal rainfall (m)
B = Basin area without snow/glacier (sq m)
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Validation of snow and glacier melt runoff model: Wangar Gad basin(Rathore and Kulkarni, 2009 in press)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Autumn Winter Monsoon Summer
Err
or
(%) 3.4 %
4.7 %
4.1 %
4.9 %
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Estimated seasonal runoff (cumecs) in Wangar Gad basin due to rise in temperature by 1oC
(Rathore and Kulkarni, 2009 in press)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4
Season
Ru
no
ff (
Cu
mec)
Autumn Winter Summer Monsoon
-20 %
-18 %
-8 %-28 %
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SALIENT OBSERVATIONS
• Retreat of 1317 glaciers 11 basins suggest 16 % loss in area from 1962.
• Mean of glacial extent reduced from 1.4 to 0.32 sq km. Number of glaciers increased due to fragmentation but extent is reduced.
• Snow line at the end of summer changed from 4900 m to 5300 m from 1970. Many glaciers are without accumulation area and may experience terminal retreat due to lack of formation of new ice.
• Large scale melting and retreat of seasonal snow was observed in basins like Ravi throughout the winter. In high altitude basins like Baspa and Bhaga, large scale retreat was observed in beginning of winter. Snow depletion curve in Beas basin suggest early and rapid melting of snow cover.
• Average stream runoff of Baspa river in December was increased by 75 per cent from 1970.
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THANKS
TERMINUS OF PARBATI GLACIER