10TOP

R E F E R E N C E G U I D EBy Dr. Steven Goldman

BC/DR TRENDS

2014

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10There has been an overall worldwide increase in the number of natural disasters. As a trend, the incidence of natural disasters worldwide has

steadily increased, especially since the 1970’s, according to

reports from the New England Journal of Medicine and from

global insurer Munich Re.

Climate-related disasters include hydrological events such as

floods, storm surge, and coastal flooding, while meteorological

events include storms, tropical cyclones, local storms, heat/cold

waves, drought,

and wildfires.

There were three

times as many

natural disasters

between 2000

to 2009 as

compared to the

amount between

1980 and 1989.

The NEJM article

notes that a vast

majority (80%) of this growth is due to climate-related events.

As a result, the amount of economic damage due to these

natural disasters has seen a steady upturn. This in turn means

that companies and organizations need to be prepared for

natural disasters.

The number of geophysical disasters has remained fairly stable

since the 1970’s. Geophysical disasters include earthquakes,

volcanoes, dry rock falls, landslides, and avalanches.

What does this mean to you? The conventional wisdom

is that if you fight Mother Nature, she always wins. However,

this does not mean you surrender! It means that companies

and organizations need to be prepared for whatever Mother

Nature can dish out. Remember Hurricane Sandy? Many

companies in the northeast were battered, but several not

only survived but also continued operations. How? Planning,

preparation, and execution.

09The rise in malicious cyber attacks will continue. The McAfee® Labs Threats Report, Third Quarter 2013,

states that it has seen several familiar trends but reports a

few new ones:

• Steady growth in mobile and overall malware

• A sharp upturn in worldwide spam

• The shutdown of the online market Silk Road, which sold

drugs and other illegal products

• The emergence of the “Deep Web”, an online supply for

cybercriminals

• An increase in the use of digital currencies by

cybercriminals to maintain anonymity for their illegal

activities

Here’s an interesting event. The Swansea MA Police

Department computer system was hacked; their files were

maliciously encrypted. The Police Dept. had to pay $750 in

an untraceable online currency to get the decryption key.

Our industry deals with unexpected events all the time. What with business impact analyses, recovery time objectives, response plans, communications protocols, cloud backup, etc etc etc, one might say that we are obsessed

with unexpected events. But these unexpected events do make our lives – professional and personal – more exciting.

So, in order to make your year a little, ah . . . , less exciting, let’s look at a few possible Business Continuity/Disaster Recovery trends for 2014.

There were three times as many natural disasters between 2000 to 2009 as compared to the amount between 1980 and 1989.

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In the third quarter of 2013 alone, McAfee reported its

count of mobile malware rose by 33 percent. New malware

of all types exceeded 20 million this period, pushing their

all-time tally to more than 172 million binaries. New rootkits,

which tunnel into systems and remain hidden, doubled in

number this quarter. AutoRun threats, often spread via USB

drives, remain numerous. Signed malware, which poses as

approved legitimate software, continues to set records,

increasing by almost 50 percent.

Consider this: The recent cyber attacks on Adobe, Target,

and Neiman-Marcus, exposing the credit-card information

of millions of customers.

And consider this: Former Vice President Dick Cheney

recently disclosed that in 2007 his heart doctor disconnected

his heart defibrillator from the internet (actually disabled

the wireless feature) for fear that a malicious hacker could

shock the Vice President’s heart into cardiac arrest.

And also consider this: Fox News recently asked that as cars

become more like PCs on wheels, what’s to stop a hacker

from taking over yours? It turns out they can. Hackers have

shown they can slam a car’s brakes at freeway speeds, jerk

the steering wheel, and even shut down the engine – all from

their laptop computers. According to the Fox News report, all

cars and trucks contain anywhere from 20 to 70 computers.

They control everything from the brakes to acceleration to

the windows, and are connected to an internal network. A few

hackers have recently managed to find their way into these

intricate networks.

What does this mean to you? The impact of a cyber attack

is compounded by the fact that more and more corporate

assets and operations are online; thus an attack has a broad

impact. The meaning of this trend should be obvious. Your

organization must have a cyber attack prevention program

as well as a response and recovery strategy. And you need

to think outside the box your cell phone came in. Can you

survive an attack on your mobile communications assets?

That recovery strategy might be something as retro (and

simple) as land lines and call trees. Do you have these in

place? Have you properly tested them?

08Some disruptions are becoming more predictable. With more and more massive amounts of technology and

data available, we are more adept at better predicting

weather patterns, natural disasters, system breakdowns, even

human threats. For example, according to National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration, “Forecasters at NOAA’s

Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are expecting G3

(strong) geomagnetic

storm conditions to

occur on Earth Jan. 9

and 10. . . Economies

around the world have

become increasingly

vulnerable to the ever-

changing nature of

the sun. Solar flares

can disrupt power

grids, interfere with

high-frequency airline and military communications, disrupt

Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, interrupt civilian

communications, and blanket the Earth’s upper atmosphere

with hazardous radiation.”

What does this mean to you? Business Continuity/Disaster

Recovery professionals need to have strategies and plans

that become more preventative than reactive. Recall the old

adage about an ounce of prevention being worth a pound of

cure, or in our case, a pound of response. Are you vulnerable

to loss of electricity? Get a backup generator. Will staffing

be a concern? Start a cross-training program, have available

Dick Cheney recently disclosed that in 2007 his heart doctor disconnected his heart defibrillator from the internet for fear that a malicious hacker could shock the Vice President’s heart into cardiac arrest.

Economies around the world have become increasingly vulnerable to the ever-changing nature of the sun.

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contract staff, bring in staff from other offices, or do more

with less. Your business impact analysis should help identify

vulnerabilities and consequences.

The week of January 5, 2014 across most of the US, snow,

thunderstorms, and frigid temperatures were predicted.

Businesses and governments were able to take action days in

advance with full confidence that weather predictions were

accurate. This included, for example, all schools in Minnesota

being cancelled on Thursday January 2 for the following

Monday. Many businesses were able to plan accordingly

in advance. Some businesses implemented work-at-home

procedures; others changed work hours in advance of the

bad weather; some just closed for the duration.

So if a hurricane is predicted, you don’t have to wait until it hits

to begin implementing response plans. But once an unexpected

disruption hits, BC/DR efforts must move forward rapidly.

07Disruptions should be considered the norm. Business interruptions – whether acts of nature, man-made

or technical glitches – are no longer outlying anomalies, but

are becoming the norm. Consider the potential for business

disruption like bad weather – you don’t like it, but it’s part of

business life; be prepared to deal with it.

What does this mean to you? Organizations need to

embrace interruption as part of expected “day to day”

processes and plan accordingly. To continue with the bad

weather analogy, most days are relatively nice; but be

prepared for the occasional thunderstorm.

06Cloud-to-cloud continuity will get serious with Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). According to Forrester Research, disaster recovery (DR) is a

leading driver for public cloud use, but mostly by enterprises

looking to improve the resiliency of mid-to low-end apps

and for smaller companies putting their entire recovery

strategy in the cloud. But in 2014, Forrester believes cloud-

based DR will go cloud-to-cloud. The first phase will unfurl in

the next year with cloud-to-cloud backups for mainstream

SaaS offerings. In the SaaS market, enterprises struggle to

restore data with steep recovery fees (or in some cases,

total lack of service) by their SaaS vendors.

What does this mean to you? Forrester reports that

a new market of backup solutions is rising to meet this

need with early solutions from companies. These offerings

automate the protection of critical data that is stored with

SaaS providers so organizations can recover this data if it is

accidentally, or maliciously, deleted.

05The role of the Business Continuity/Disaster Recovery professional is changing for the better. In the earlier days of business continuity, there used to be

a joke: What’s the difference between a highly paid, highly

recognized BCP Manager and a unicorn? The answer: they

are both imaginary creatures!

With every disaster made public, the role of the BC/DR

practitioner is enhanced at enlightened organizations. More

and more, companies are realizing the need for a BC and

DR professionals on their staff.

According to Business Continuity Management’s Cheyene

Marling, “One of our studies has shown that since 2009,

respondents have indicated that IT/Disaster Recovery and

Business Continuity strategies have increasingly supported

organizational needs.” This, of course, helps justify BC

and DR efforts as well as attracts the attention of senior

management–all good things.

Business interruptions – whether acts of nature, man-made or technical glitches – are no longer outlying anomalies, but are becoming the norm.

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In her 2012 industry surveys, Ms. Marling also finds:

• Increased awareness seems to be evident at the chief

officer level as more respondents indicated a shift in

program sponsor from mid management/ management

to the chief officer level/ board committee.

• The chief level program sponsors are stepping up

their level of engagement with the business continuity

management program.

• Adding more full-time, permanent personnel dedicated

to the program and a decrease in downsizing of

personnel in the next year.

• A shift to an enterprise-wide resiliency focus with

increased executive support.

• Acknowledgement of increased standards that will more

than likely continue to evolve the profession in the future.

What does this mean to you? Life is good.

We are becoming recognized more and more, and we are

being taken seriously.

In addition to having an interesting, high-profile job that your

peers certainly must envy, you can rest assured that BC/

DR professionals for probably the first time have an actual

career path–at some companies, anyway. There are now

position listings for Vice President, Business Continuity. BC/

DR has even reached the C-Suite – Chief Resiliency Officer!

With consistent increase in cause and cases for disruption,

the industry is only growing and with that the need for BC/

DR professionals should keep growing as well.

04Communications expectations are increasing: The speed of information is faster than the speed of light. While not literally true, information can travel around the

world in seconds. And as Hamlet said, there’s the rub.

Today people are carrying several communications devices

and systems. How many of you have at least a cell phone,

iPad or equivalent, plus a laptop? Does your briefcase or

pocketbook look like the discount bin at Radio Shack?

A full disclosure moment: xMatters is a mass notification

services vendor and is sponsoring this paper Regardless,

I would offer this trend/observation even if this document

were sponsored by Dunkin Donuts.

What does this mean to you? First of all, understand the

fast pace of technological change. It took 52 years for the

basic telephone to reach 70% of US households. To reach

the same household penetration for the cell phone, it took

only 17 years. Apple launched the App Store in 2008 with

about 500 apps. Today, five years later, there are over one

million apps available on the App Store. Facebook went

from zero users to over 1.1 billion users – that’s Billion – in

only 9 years. You need to keep up.

On the one hand, this technology allows your employees,

customers, suppliers, etc., to communicate quickly and freely;

this is truly amazing. On the other hand, this technology raises

the expectation that your employees, customers, suppliers,

etc., will be contacted quickly when necessary–like in an

emergency. This is over and above your critical responders.

Communication plans need to factor in these expectations.

Consider this: On a fine Sunday evening last August, the

cable service in Fairfield Connecticut failed due to a power

loss. This occurred during a Yankees-Red Sox baseball game

on ESPN, the continuing saga of AMC’s Breaking Bad, and the

season finale of HBO’s True Blood. People were so distraught

that the local 911 emergency lines were overwhelmed with

calls from citizens trying to find out what was going on. The

Fairfield Police Department was not amused: the FPD used

its Facebook page to remind residents that missing a favorite

TV show does not necessitate a call to 911. It also pointed out

that “Misuse of the 911 system may result in an arrest.”

During the Boston Marathon bombings, people all over

the world were watching Twitter, Facebook, etc, expecting

On a fine Sunday evening last August, the cable service in Fairfield Connecticut failed due to a power loss. Guess what happened?

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the latest information. After shutting down an entire city,

Boston Police announced the capture of Boston Marathon

terror suspects. This single tweet eliminated the tense

atmosphere in the city.

Today, people expect to be proactively communicated to

about ‘what is going on’ in a situation as minor as a cableTV

outage. Five years ago we would have shut the TV off and

worked on a puzzle. Now people are immediately checking

texts, phones, etc. expecting, nay demanding, to be informed.

What does this also mean to you? Fast initial

communications are more important today than ever. You

have to get in front of an event before it swallows you up.

Incredibly, some emergency Public Relations manuals are

still advising that companies have as much as 48 hours to

gather information, develop a message, and respond to an

event. The exact guidance of one such manual is “Assess

severity, length of issue and media life. If you believe this

is a very small ‘flash in the pan’ it may be best to not make

public statements for 24-48 hours and see how quickly the

issue goes away.” Realistically, it’s more like 24 minutes!

03Social Media will continue to drive BC/DR response. Like it or not, social media is here to stay. The format, apps,

and technology may evolve, but it’s not going away anytime

soon. Used properly, social media are a powerful tool for

crisis leaders to notify and communicate before, during,

and after an event. However, because of its immediacy,

spontaneity, ease of use, and general lack of protocols,

the social media can also be a burden to crisis responders.

Incorrect information and rumors can intermingle with

facts; this requires social media response strategies.

What does this mean to you? Organizations must know

how to leverage social media and harness its power rather

than let it control your response.

Also–companies/agencies need policies on what information

(non-emergency response) employees can give out to the

public, the media, and even their family & friends. Employees

need to know and understand your communication policies

and protocols, especially during a disaster.

Make sure you have emergency communications policies such as:

• “Statements to the public and news media concerning

an emergency at {Organization} are to be made only

with the knowledge and guidance of the Emergency

Communications Team.”

• “Information requests made to individual {Organization}

employees and contractors by the public, media, and

government officials must be referred to the Emergency

Communications Team.”

What about the social media? You should have a policy such as:

• “Employees shall not use social media to discuss,

describe, or inform anyone about any aspect of an

emergency at {Organization}”

But wait!! Is this policy legal??

I am not a lawyer, but Julie Meadows-Keefe of the law firm

Grossman, Furlow & Bayó, is. “It’s a thorny issue. That policy

could raise some First Amendment and other issues. If an

employee is trapped in a building with an active shooter

and is trying to communicate with friends and family about

whether they are alive or injured–a life or death issue –

the policy interferes with their ability to do that; I don’t

believe an organization will discipline an employee for that.

However, if an employee is tweeting about the event on his/

her personal account, the employee is violating company

policy but is within his/her First Amendment protections.”

What should an organization do? Ms. Meadows-Keefe

says, “I know this sounds lawyerly, but the organization policy

should be a ‘strong recommendation’ not to discuss the event

on social media; but if you do, make sure it is clear that the

message is identified as a personal opinion. This policy is not

Today, people expect to be proactively communicated to about ‘what is going on’ in a situation as minor as a cable TV outage.

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easy to implement or enforce; policy violation discipline would

probably be on a case-by-case basis. It’s frustrating; but the

bottom line is that organizations should train all employees

on the policy and assume employee common sense.”

02Twitiots will continueI thought I invented the word twitiot – a tweeting idiot.

However, a brief Internet search already found several

references and uses of the word. Oh well . . .

So here’s an easy prediction. Several people will become

famous – or infamous – by tweeting/blogging something

stupid.

Remember the alleged Public Relations expert who made

stupid statements about visiting South Africa? How many

politicians or movie stars have caused themselves crises by

being a twitiot?

Who can forget “Carlos Danger,” aka New York Congressman

Anthony Weiner? He became the center of a media firestorm

in 2011 when he briefly posted on Twitter a lewd self-portrait

for all of his constituents to see. After saying it was a prank,

he admitted it was intended as a direct message to a Seattle

woman as “a joke.” Now painfully aware of the power of

Twitter, Weiner no longer holds elected office.

Karine Vanasse was well known for playing the role of

stewardess Colette Valois in the US television series, Pan

Am. In December of the show’s first season, she sent out

the following tweet:

“Well, we received THE call, #PanAm is only coming back

for one more episode after Christmas. But up to the end,

we’ll give it our all!”

The problem? The series star broke the news of the show’s

impending cancellation before the network was ready

to announce it. Now Ms. Vanasse is not an idiot, but she

essentially released company confidential information

before management was ready. Could this happen to your

organization? As I stated previously, do you have policy

that covers social media?

What does this mean to you? Everyone with an internet

connection/e-mail/twitter account – essentially all your

employees – must understand that by pressing the “Send”

button, you are sending your “personal” message to

potentially over 2.4 Billion people. That’s over one third of

the world’s population, bunkie, and there are no take-backs.

Again, what is your social media policy during an emergency?

01Be prepared for the Matrix, the Robot Uprising, or Skynet! Yes, each of these science fiction threats centers on “The

Machines” taking over. But when The Machines do take over,

that means YOUR machines too! Forrester’s Rachel Dines

and I advise those firms that have not yet updated their BIA’s

or continuity plans to include these science fiction risks, here

are three tips that can get you started on the right path:

A. Store data in offline forms and/or on local devices. Whether you choose tapes (outside of a Machine-

accessible tape library), punch cards, paper, or

optical media, you must keep current copies of

critical data in a format that can’t be sabotaged by

the Matrix, robots, or Skynet.

B. Keep continuity plans on paper and/or on local devices. You’ll want to have your plans for specifically

dealing with The Machines’ uprising in a format that

is hard for them to assimilate so they can’t devise

countermeasures to your plans. Additionally, you

should store key elements of your BC and DR plans

(e.g., contact lists, notification instructions, pre-

scripted employee/media statements, basic response

strategies, etc) on paper, on local mobile devices that

would not be impacted, and/or in a separate cloud.

These technologies should be able to provide the

required information without a network connection.

C. Have emergency shutdown protocols for your data center. To prevent The Machines from taking over

your data center and using it for their own nefarious

purposes, you need a data center emergency

disconnect and emergency shutdown plan.

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DR. STEVEN B. GOLDMAN is an internationally recognized expert and consultant in Business Continuity, Crisis Management, Disaster Recovery, and Crisis Communications. He has over 30 years experience in the various aspects of these disciplines, including program management, plan development, training, exercises, and response

strategies. His background is comprehensive yet unique in that he has been a professional engineer, corporate spokesperson, manager of media relations, business continuity planner, crisis

responder, consultant, and a Fortune 500 Company’s Global Business Continuity Program Manager. Dr. Goldman is a co-founder and Lecturer at MIT’s “Crisis Management & Business Continuity” Professional Education summer course.

CONTACT INFOMATION:Dr. Steve GoldmanWeb site: www. SteveGoldmanAssociates.com

E-mail: Steve@SteveGoldmanAssociates.com

The MIT BCP Course: http://shortprograms.mit.edu/cm

About the Author

What does this mean to you? Interestingly, these three

strategies can and should be applied to more mundane–

and more likely–disasters such as loss of power to your data

center, evacuation of the data center, and loss of access to

the building containing the data center. For example, if you

have a building evacuation, can you quickly and orderly

shutdown (and transfer) your data center? How do you

access plans and data that are stored online?

Something else to consider: When I run loss-of-power BC

or DR drills for my clients, several responders say that when

power is lost, the response strategy is simple: employees

will work from home and they can VPN in to the network.

However, some VPN’s are structured such that employees

at home or in other offices have to remotely log onto their

desktops to access the company network.

Imagine their surprise when home responders realize

that even with a time-limited UPS–or when The Machines

take over – power will be lost to the desktops! How will

the workers at home be able to access the network? The

answer is: they won’t! Thus this alleged business-saving

work-at-home strategy will not work.

As a results of these exercises, my clients preventatively

fixed the problem. You should too.

BONUS TREND: Your company/agency/organization will be impacted by a disaster in 2014.

This is a no brainer. You–yes, you – will be either directly

impacted (á la Hurricane Sandy) or indirectly (how many

retailers had to check their systems following the recent

Target data breach problems?). Also to consider: a crisis

that affects your neighbor or your industry will also most

likely affect you.

What does this mean to you? So–are you prepared for an

event that directly affects your organization? You know–

management support, BIA, plans, procedures, staffing,

equipment, facilities, training, drills, exercises, lessons

learned, etc? In addition to being prepared for an event

that directly affects you, are you prepared for the collateral

damage from someone else’s crisis? You most likely will

not want to comment on someone else’s crisis. However,

you will probably want to raise awareness in your own

organization and perhaps be prepared to take inquiries

from clients, suppliers, government agencies, the media,

social media etc. Can you do this quickly and reliably? Is

management aware of this?

To wrap up, I note that predicting trends for an upcoming

year is always a risk.

Last year at this time no one could have predicted for 2013

the Boston Marathon tragedy or the Boston Red Sox World

Series victory. But in our business, the one thing we can

expect is the unexpected, requiring us to be prepared. No

fortune cookie need tell us this; it’s what we do.

Copyright 2014 xMatters. All rights reserved. All other products and brand names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.

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TOP 10 TRENDS

References Guide

INFORMATION SOURCE

10 http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra1109877?query=featured_home http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/2014_01_07_press_release.aspx

09

http://www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2013.pdfhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/11/18/swansea-police-pay-ransom-after-computer-system-was-hacked/http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/56b4382c-5ea7-11e3-8621-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2q6R7apxdhttp://blogs.adobe.com/conversations/2013/10/important-customer-security-announcement.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/target-says-70-million-customers-were-hit-by-dec-data-breach-more-than-first-reported/2014/01/10/0ada1026-79fe-11e3-8963-b4b654bcc9b2_story.html http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57617075-83/credit-card-hackers-hit-neiman-marcus/http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dick-cheneys-heart/2/http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2013/09/04/hackers-find-weaknesses-in-car-computer-systems/

08 http://www.noaa.gov/features/01_economic/spaceweather_3.htmlhttp://www.npr.org/2012/10/31/164046039/high-def-storm-models-yielded-accurate-predictions

07 None

06 Rachel Dines, Forrester Research, for her contribution to http://blogs.forrester.com/james_staten/13-12-04-cloud_computing_predictions_for_2014_cloud_joins_the_formal_it_portfolio

05“Contingency Management Trends; What are the most “successful” programs doing right?” presentation by Cheyene Marling, October 9, 2013Trending in Business Continuity – An Assessment of Data Collected Between 2009 – 2011; Prepared by BC Management, Inc. – June 2012

04

http://visualizingeconomics.com/2008/02/18/adoption-of-new-technology-since-1900Boston MA Globe, January 8, 2014: “Apple says $10b spent in app store”, Associated Press storyFacebook Reports First Quarter 2013 Results – Facebook. Investor.fb.com (May 1, 2013). Retrieved on July 21, 2013http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2396909/Police-inundated-calls-cable-outage-Breaking-Bad-began.htmlhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/markfidelman/2013/12/14/twitter-these-are-the-most-popular-tweets-of-2013/http://www.mvma.org/MediaResources/3-Crisis%20Communications.pdf

03 Julie Meadows-Keefe of the law firm Grossman, Furlow & Bayó; personal conversations, January 9, 2014

02

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2013/12/23/justine-sacco-and-the-self-inflicted-perils-of-twitter/http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2527330/Blonde-female-PR-executive-tweets-Going-Africa-Hope-I-dont-AIDS-Just-kidding-Im-white-causes-international-outrage-likely-fired.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/16/anthony-weiner-resigns-scandal_n_878161.htmlhttp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/pan-am-karine-vanasse-canceled-twitter-bridget-279433http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/twitter-gaffes-2011-alec-baldwin-ashton-kutcher-276424#4-anthony-weinerhttp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/twitter-gaffes-2011-alec-baldwin-ashton-kutcher-276424#6-karine-vanasse

01 Another tip of the hat to Rachel Dines: http://blogs.forrester.com/rachel_dines/13-04-01-continuity_planning_for_the_robot_uprising

TREND