Kot bond market booklet q2 fy2015
description
Transcript of Kot bond market booklet q2 fy2015
Q2/FY2015
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
KINGDOM OF THAILAND BOND MARKET FINANCING THAILAND’S FUTURE
& CONNECTING ASEAN
Highlight Special Savings Bond “Suk Gun Ter Rao” Thailand’s Inaugural Bond Switching The Gateway for CLMV Countries Financing
Progress Update » Funding Needs FY2015
» Greenshoe Option: Privilege for MOF Outright PDs
» Savings Bond FY2015
» GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q2/FY2015
» PDMO Bond Calendar FY2015
- D R A F T -
Basic & Essentials » Public Debt Outstanding and Its Composition
» Bond Market Capitalization and Its Composition
» Government Bond Auction Result
» Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
Funding Needs & Benchmark Bond Supply FY2015
Greenshoe Option : Privilege for MOF Outright PDs
Savings Bond FY2015
GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q2/FY2015
PDMO Bond Calendar FY2015
technology consulting
MONTHLY
JOURNAL OF
INFORMATIO
N
TECHNOLOG
Y
TechTime
s
Solutions For a
New Economy
Sit amet, consec tetuer
adipiscing elit, sed diam
nonummy nibh euismod
tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna
aliquam . Ut wisi enim ad minim
veniam, quis nostrud exerci
tation ullamcorper. Et iusto odio
dignissim qui blandit
praeseptatum zzril delenit augue
duis dolore te feugait nulla
adipiscing elit, sed diam
nonummy nibh .
PERSONAL COMPUTING
Tincidunt ut laoreet dolore
magna aliquam erat volut pat. Ut
wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis
exerci tation ullamcorper cipit
lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex
it amet, consec tetuer
adipiscing elit, sed diam
nonummy nibh euismod
tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna
aliquam . Ut
wisi enim ad minim veniam,
quis nostrud exerci tation
ullamcorper. Et iusto odio
dignissim qui blandit
praeseptatum.
Exploring open source software opportunities. Volutpat mos at neque nulla lobortis
dignissim conventio, torqueo, acsi roto modo.
Feugait in obruo quae ingenium tristique elit
vel natu meus. Molior torqueo capio velit
loquor aptent ut lorem erat feugiat pneum
commodo vel obruo mara genitus. Suscipit,
vicis praesent erat feugait epulae, validus
indoles duis enim consequat genitus at. Sed,
conventio, aliquip accumsan adipiscing augue
blandit minim abbas oppeto commoveo.
Enim neo velit adsum odio, multo, in commoveo quibus
premo tamen erat huic. Occuro uxor dolore, ut at praemitto
opto si sudo, opes feugiat iriure validus. Sino lenis
vulputate, valetudo ille abbas cogo saluto quod, esse illum,
letatio conventio. Letalis nibh iustum transverbero bene,
erat vulputate enim dolore modo. Loquor, vulputate meus
indoles iaceo, ne secundum, dolus demoveo interdico
proprius. In consequat os quae nulla magna. Delenit abdo
esse quia, te huic. Ratis neque ymo, venio illum pala
damnum pneum. Aptent nulla aliquip camur ut consequat
aptent nisl in voco. Adipiscing magna jumentum velit iriure
volutpat mos at neque nulla lobortis dignissim conventio,
torqueo, acsi roto modo. Feugait in obruo quae
vel natu meus. Molior torqueo capio velit loquor aptent ut
erat feugiat pneum commodo vel obruo mara
genitus. Suscipit, vicis praesent erat feugait epulae,
validus indoles duis enim consequat genitus at lerpo
ipsum. Enim neo velit adsum odio, multo, in
commoveo quibus premo tamen erat huic. Occuro uxor
dolore, ut at praemitto opto si sudo, opes feugiat iriure
validus. Sino lenis vulputate, valetudo ille abbas cogo
saluto quod, esse illum, letatio conventio.
Letalis nibh iustum transverbero bene, erat vulputate enim
dolore modo. Molior torqueo capio velit loquor aptent ut
erat feugiat pneum commodo vel obruo mara genitus.
Suscipit, vicis praesent erat feugait epulae, validus indoles
duis enim consequat genitus at lerpo ipsum. Enim neo velit
adsum odio, multo, in
commoveo quibus premo tamen erat huic. Occuro
uxor dolore, ut at praemitto opto si sudo.
Suscipit, vicis praesent erat feugait epulae, validus indoles
duis enim consequat genitus at lerpo ipsum. Enim neo velit
adsum odio, multo, in commoveo quibus premo tamen erat
huic.
this issue
Open Source Revolution P.1
IT Management Tips P.2
Non-Profit Solutions P.3
Trends & New Software P.4
ISSUE
MONTH YEAR
0
0
Thai GOVT Bond Market Overview
B a s i c & E s s e n t i a l s
P r o g r e s s U p d a t e
21
23 24
26
25
30
34
35
38
PDMO Bond Calendar FY2015
Q1/FY2015 GOVT Bond Auction Schedule
Roadshow Bond Switching : Announce Destination Bonds
Greenshoe Option : Privilege for MOF Outright PDs
The Relaxation on Eligible Thai-denominated Bonds and
Debentures Applicants for CLMV Countries
Savings Bond Q1/FY2015
Public Debt Outstanding (as of August 2014) 5,662,574 THB Mil. (46.85% of GDP) Bond Market Capitalization (as of Sep 2014) 9,158,539 THB Mil. (77% of GDP) Total GOVT Debt (Direct + FIDF) (as of Sep 2014) 3,459,087 THB Mil. (43 Bond Series)
» Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) 8yrs 3mths » Average Cost 4.1%
» Fixed : Floating Ratio 88 : 12
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOVT Direct Debt Profile Dramatically (as of Sep 2014)
» Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) 9yrs 8mths » Average Cost 4.1%
» Well-Balanced Fixed : Floating Ratio 89 : 11 » Well-Distributed Maturity Profile 41:26:33 (<5 : 6-10 : >10yrs)
FY2015 Total Fund Raising Plan (as of Sep 2014) 705,XXX THB Mil.
» Benchmark Bond (5-10-15-30-50 Tenors) 350,XXX THB Mil. » Innovative Bond (ILB and LBA) 95,XXX THB Mil. » Savings Bond ,Promissory Note and Others 260,XXX THB Mil.
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond (as of Sep 2014)
» NR Holding in THB Bond 731,861 THB Mil. (7.97% of Thai Bond Market Cap.) GOVT Bond : 603,493 THB Mil. (17.5% of GOVT Bond Outs.) BOT Bond : 127,636 THB Mil. (4.6% of BOT Bond Outs.) Others : 732 THB Mil.
» Annual Capital Flow +24,501 THB Mil. GOVT Bond : +7,651 THB Mil. BOT Bond : +16,850 THB Mil.
Thai GOVT Bond Market Overview
1 4 M O F O u t r i g h t P D s
• Bangkok Bank PCL. • BNP Paribas, Bangkok Branch • Citibank N.A., Bangkok Branch • Deutsche Bank AG., Bangkok Branch • The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking
Corporation Limited • JPMorgan Chase Bank, Bangkok Branch • Kasikornbank PCL. • Krung Thai Bank PCL. • Siam Commercial Bank PCL. • Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) PCL. • TMB Bank PCL. • KGI Securities (Thailand) PCL. • CIMB Thai Bank Public Company Limited • Bank of America N.A., Bangkok Branch new
FY
20
15
Bo
nd
Ma
rk
et
P r o g r e s s U p d a t e
8
10 11
13
12
15
18
21
22
25
14
H i g h l i g ht
31
Special Savings Bond “Suk Gun Ter Rao” Thailand’s Inaugural Bond Switching
Baht Bond : The Gateway for CLMV Countries Financing
Public Debt Outstanding (as of Oct 2014) 5,640,578 THB Mil. (46.50% of GDP) Bond Market Capitalization (as of Dec 2014) 9,303,626 THB Mil. (78% of GDP) Total GOVT Debt (Direct + FIDF) (as of Nov 2014) 3,372,107 THB Mil. (41 Bond Series) Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOVT Direct Debt Profile Dramatically (as of Oct 2014)
» Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) 10yrs 9mths » Average Cost 4.0%
» Well-Balanced Fixed : Floating Ratio 88 : 12 » Well-Distributed Maturity Profile 46:17:37 (<5 : 6-10 : >10yrs)
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond (as of Dec 2014)
» NR Holding in THB Bond 683,215 THB Mil. (7.36% of Thai Bond Market Cap.) GOVT Bond : 625,483 THB Mil. (18.1% of GOVT Bond Outstanding) BOT Bond : 56,980 THB Mil. (2.1% of BOT Bond Outstanding) Others : 752 THB Mil.
» Annual Capital Flow (YTD) -24,165 THB Mil.
GOVT Bond : +29,642 THB Mil. BOT Bond : -53,807 THB Mil.
Total Issuance : 100,000 THB mil.
Ministry of Finance Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives
Issue Size 50,000 THB mil. 50,000 THB mil.
Tenor 10-Years 5-Years
Coupon Rate (p.a.)
1yr - 3yr 3%
4yr - 7yr 4%
8yr - 10yr 5%
3.80%
Sale Amount 1,000 – 2,000,000 THB mil.
Eligible Customers
Only for retail and non-profit organization such as foundations, Thai Red Cross Society, and the National Council on Social Welfare of Thailand
Sale Period
January 12th – 23rd , 2015
- 1st Period : January 12th – 18th, 2015 : Maximum purchasing limit at 2 THB mil./person/bank
- 2nd Period : January 19th – 23rd, 2015 : No maximum purchasing limit
- 1st Period : January 12th – 16th, 2015 : Maximum purchasing limit at 2 THB mil./person/bank
- 2nd Period : January 19th – 23rd, 2015 : No maximum purchasing limit
Distribution Channels
4 Appointed banks : - Bangkok Bank - Krung Thai Bank - Kasikorn Bank - Siam Commercial Bank
● 4 Appointed banks : - Bangkok Bank - Krung Thai Bank - Kasikorn Bank - Siam Commercial Bank ● Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural
Co-operatives
Ministry of Finance Bank for Agriculture and
Agricultural Co-operatives
Ministry of Finance Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives
Issue Size 50,000 THB mil. 50,000 THB mil.
Tenor 10-Year 5-Year
Coupon Rate Will be announced by the Minister of Finance on January 5th, 2015
Sale Amount
1,000 – 2,000,000 THB mil.
Eligible Customers
Only for household and non-profit organization such as foundations, Thai Red Cross Society, and the National Council on Social Welfare of Thailand
Sale Period
January 12th – 23rd , 2015 - 1st Period : January 12th – 18th, 2015 : Maximum purchasing limit
at 2 THB mil./person/bank
- 2nd Period : January 19th – 23rd, 2015 : No maximum purchasing limit
January 12th – 23rd , 2015 - 1st Period : January 12th – 16th, 2015 : Maximum purchasing limit at 2 THB mil./person/bank
- 2nd Period : January 19th – 23rd, 2015 : No maximum purchasing limit
Distribution Channels
4 Appointed banks - Bangkok Bank - Krung Thai Bank - Kasikorn Bank - Siam Commercial Bank
● Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives ● 4 Appointed banks - Bangkok Bank - Krung Thai Bank - Kasikorn Bank - Siam Commercial Bank
Special Savings Bond “Suk Gun Ter Rao”
1
Ministry of Finance
Prime Minister Savings is the foundation for future growth and investments. The issuance of this Savings bond will help propel Thailand into a true Savings society.
Deputy Prime Minister Amidst fluctuating economic and financial conditions, Savings bond is a safe haven that can provide consistent returns.
Minister Finance Savings bond is the opportunity for ordinary citizens to take part in the country’s investment for the future of our country and future generations.
Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance This issue of Savings bond allows quality and safe investment to be within reach of Thai citizens. It is an opportunity for Thai people to join hands with the government, not only learn more about the Thai bond market but also to support the country’s development.
BAAC General-Manager “Suk Gun Ter Rao” is the first BAAC Savings bond issued to the general public. The bond is the safest investment of its kind since it is backed by a government guarantee and budget allocation for the repayment of both interest and principle. This issue underscore’s BAAC’s role in the development of the domestic bond market and is a potential financing instrument in future.
Mr. Sommai Phasee Minister of Finance
“Medical advancement and improved health care have lengthened longevity of people around the world, Thailand included. As we are moving toward “aging society”, ‘Suk Gun Ter Rao’ savings bond with a long tenor of 10 years becomes an excellent investment opportunity for the senior citizens.
Mr. Rungson Sriworasat Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance
“This special issue of savings bond allows quality and safe investment to be within reach of Thai citizens. It is an opportunity for Thai people to join hands with the government
to support the country’s economic development.”
Mr. Kritsda Udyanin Director-General of Public Debt Management Office “ The general public can now invest in savings bond starting at only 1,000 Baht. This allows the government to expand our Investors’ base, which support our effort to meet our financing needs. More importantly, it is an easy first step for each one of us to move towards financial discipline.”
2
Bank of Thailand & Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives
Mr. Luck Wajananawat President
Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives
“Suk Gun Ter Rao” is the first BAAC savings bond issued to the general public. The bond is the safest investment of its kind since it is backed by a government guarantee and budget allocation
for the repayment of both interest and principle. This special issue reaffirms BAAC’s role in
the development of the domestic bond market and is a potential financing instrument in future.
Mr. Prasarn Trairatvorakul Governor Bank of Thailand “Savings and responsible spending ensures financial discipline and security”
3
Mr. Vorapak Tanyawong President Krung Thai Bank
“Krung Thai Bank has long been one of the distributors of government savings bond. Savings bond is an investment that retail investors have shown a lot of interest in, as there is low risk. Recently, the Ministry of Finance has amended some features to promote the ease of access to savings bond for a wider range of investors with different level of income by specifying minimum investment of only 1,000 Baht. Therefore, savings bond provides investors with a low risk investment option, while ensuring consistent returns.”
Mrs. Kannikar Chalitaporn President
Siam Commercial Bank
“Siam Commercial Bank is delighted to take part in this special savings bond ‘Suk Gun Ter Rao’ as it is an
opportunity for us to play our part in promoting savings in our society. This savings bond that our bank is acting
as one of the distributors is low risk with appropriate returns. SCB’s readiness in terms of coverage of ATM
outlets and branches allows all retail investors to conveniently access savings bond. This is one of the
main factors what will help ensure success of ‘Suk Gun Ter Rao’ savings bond.”
Special Savings Bond “Suk Gun Ter Rao”
4
Mr. Predee Daochai President
KASIKORN BANK
“KASIKORNBANK is pleased to be one of the distributors of savings bond as it is a low-risk
investment with consistent returns. We are also proud to be a part of initiatives to lay the foundation to promote Thailand into a savings society. Apart from distributing ‘Suk Gun Ter Rao’ savings bond to interested investors
through branches and ATMs as usual, KASIKORN BANK also provide investors an opportunity to give savings bond as a
present for others. This is to deliver happiness to our acquaintances as an aspiration of this
‘Suk Gun Ter Rao’ savings bond.”
Mr. Chartsiri Sophonpanich President Bangkok Bank
“Ensuring financial stability is of great importance to of all families, in particular during times of financial and capital market uncertainties. A well-planned financial management through careful selection of assets and risk assessment is crucial each family members financial
security and happiness. Savings bond can provide investors with an opportunity to invest in a bond that is extremely low risk but will also provide long term and consistent returns. It is a safe option as it is issued by public sector entities including the Ministry of Finance and/or the Bank of Thailand.”
5
Special Savings Bond
Mr. Wirat Sudsawatkeattikul “ I was always invested in Savings Bond as it is a risk-free investment with sufficient interest payments in comparison to returns from the market”
6
Wat Rajabopit Sathitmahasimaram Rajaworavihara “Savings bond generate payments every six months with no risk. The proceeds will be used to renovate facilities in the temple compound.”
Mrs. Jariyaporn Klansuwan
National Institute of Development Administration Savings Co-Operative Ltd.
“Our investment guidelines allow us to invest in a wide range of products, when designing our portfolio we carefully decide on products that is in the
best interest of the COOP. Our investment objective is primarily concerned with generating good returns, but capital preservation is also very important to us.
That is why savings bond has always been an integral part of our investment strategy as savings bond is virtually free from principle and interest repayment
risks. In addition, we can also use savings bond as collateral in cash management operations with other financial institutions, therefore, it matches
our needs in more ways than one.”
“An important part of my job is to connect and to deliver government's economic policy
to business sectors who can help materialize its potential
growth.” Minister of Finance
From L to R : Mr. Sun Vithespongse, Mr. Prasit Suebdhana, Mr. Amnuay Preemonwong, Mr. Chakkrit Parapuntakul
From L to R : Mrs. Pannee Sathavarodom, Mr. Wisudhi Srisuphan, Mr. Manas Jamveha
"The big 4 banks are like rivers of capital providing finance for our economy to prosper.“
Mr. Sommai Phasee Minister of Finance
From L to R : Mrs. Kannikar Chalitaporn, Mr. Predee Daochai, Mr. Chartsiri Sophonpanich,
Mr. Vorapak Tanyawong with Minister of Finance.
From L to R : Mr. Rungson Sriworasat, Mr. Paiboon Kittisrikangwan
“Suk Gun Ter Rao” means “happy together”, my new year wish to you all.
Mr. Sommai Phasee Minister of Finance
8
The MOU signing ceremony between 4 appointed banks, BAAC and BOT witnessed by Minister of Finance and PDMO’s DG.
1. Mr. Sommai Phasee Minister of Finance (Ex PDMO’s Executive)
2. Mr. Wisudhi Srisuphan Deputy Minister of Finance 3. Mrs. Pannee Sathavarodom Advisor to the Minister of Finance (Ex PDMO’s Director-General)
4. Mr. Sun Vithespongse Secretary to the Minister of Finance (Ex PDMO’s Executive)
5. Mr. Rungson Sriworasat Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance 6. Mr. Chakkrit Parapuntakul Deputy Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance (Ex PDMO’s Director-General)
7. Mr. Amnuay Preemonwong Deputy Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance 8. Mr. Prasit Suebdhana Deputy Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance 9. Mr. Manas Jamveha Director-General, The Comptroller General’s Department 10. Mr. Kritsda Udyanin Director-General, Public Debt Management Office 11. Mr. Ace Viboolcharern Deputy Director-General, Public Debt Management Office 12. Mr. Paiboon Kittisrikangwan Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand 13. Mr. Bordin Unakul Executive Vice President, The Stock Exchange of Thailand 14. Mr. Tada Phutthitada President, The Thai Bond Market Association (Ex PDMO’s Executive)
15. Mr. Luck Wajananawat President, Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives 16. Mr. Vorapak Tanyawong President, Krung Thai Bank 17. Mrs. Kannikar Chalitaporn President, Siam Commercial Bank 18. Mr. Chartsiri Sophonpanich President, Bangkok Bank 19. Mr. Preedee Daochai President, Kasikorn Bank 20. Mr. Thiti Tantikulanan Head of Capital Market Business Division, Kasikorn Bank
18 1 2 3 6 4 10 17 14 8 7 20 11 15 5 9 13 12 16 19
9
1
6 5 4
3
2
7
Mr. Nattakarn Boonsri, Director of Government Bond Market Division (L) Mr. Ace Viboolcharern, Deputy Director-General of Public Debt Management Office (R) 1
Dr. Pimpen Ladpli, Acting Executive Director of Bond Market Development Bureau (L) Ms. Pannee Sathavarodom, Advisor to the Minister of Finance (R)
Mr. Luck Wajananawat, President of Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives (L) Mr. Kritsda Udyanin, Director-General of Public Debt Management Office (R)
Mr. Teeralak Sangsnit, Executive Director of Debt Management Bureau 2
Mr. Theeraj Athanavanich, Executive Director of the Public Infrastructure Project Financing Bureau (L) Mr. Wisut Chanmanee, Executive Director of Debt Management Bureau 1 (R)
Mr. Paroche Hutachareon, Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division (R)
Ms. Laksika Tengpratip, Fiscal Analyst (far R)
Mr. Nakarin Prompat, Acting Director of the International Bond Market Policy Division
5
6
4
7
2
3
10 10
The launch of Thailand’s First Bond switching was extremely successful. Can you please give us some background on why Bond Switching was introduced? Over the past decade, the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) has played a leading role in the development of the domestic bond market, which has enabled the domestic bond market to become one of the major source to raise funds for both the private sector and for the government to finance infrastructure projects. Such significant progress in bond market development required the issuance of Benchmark bonds that is sufficiently large enough (over 100,000 billion baht) to establish the yield curve and enhance liquidity. Given the significant increase in the size of bond issuance, debt refinancing instrument will be the most crucial part to smooth out our debt portfolio. In the past, to refinance or restructure the debt, we have relied on Back to Back financing on the day of the maturity of the bond and Pre-funding within one year prior to the maturity date. These transactions have proved to be adequate but we needed various tools that can help further support
future bond market development initiative. We then explored the possibility of using bond switching and found it to be as effective as current tools in reducing refinancing risk and to avoid bunching of debt. But the main difference is that bond switching can prevent refinancing risks while at the same time enhance liquidity in the secondary market. In addition, we also believe that it is beneficial to investors in terms of providing another option for portfolio management. This is why we felt that it can become a very effective and useful tool.
Thailand’s Inaugural Bond Switching
Mr. Nattakarn Boonsri, Director of Government Bond Market Development Division
“…It was the largest single debt transaction in the history of the government and Thai bond market”
12
How does Bond switching work?
In order to understand the mechanism of bond switching, allow me to explain some key terms;
1) “Source Bond” is a Bond that has been identified by PDMO to be restructured and 2) “Destination Bond” is bond with longer maturities that can be either an “on the run” existing benchmark or a newly issued bond. Bond switching allows the bond holder of the source bond to exchange for the destination bond. This therefore, allows the PDMO to achieve both of objectives of supporting bond market development while at the same time prevent refinancing risks.
What were the steps taken to ensure the right bonds were selected?
When we introduce new instruments, either new product issuance or debt management tools, we always undertake thorough impact assessment and careful steps to ensure successful execution and limit any significant impact on the market. Prior to the launch, our team went through the following steps 1) Assess country examples from those with successful bond switching transactions including UK, Sweden, Germany and Australia. 2) Exchange ideas on concepts and methods with domestic investors to find the right features for the Thai market.
3) To facilitate the transaction, an understanding between all agencies involved needed to be reached on concept, accounting, pricing and operation of the exchange on bonds. 4) Finally, we identify the appropriate Source bond and Destination bond. For Thailand’s first bond switching on the 28 November 2014, we chose the LB155A with remaining maturities of 6 months as the Source bond and identified four maturities (3-24 years) for the Destination Bond (Table 1). The wide ranging maturities ensure that all types of investors are covered including financial instrument, mutual funds, long term investors and Non-Residents. Table 1 : Bond Switching Amount Classified By Destination Bond
Bond Maturity Date New Issued Amount (THB Mil PercentageLB176A 2 Yrs. months 22,683 32LB191A 4 Yrs. month 20,883 30LB21DA 7 Yrs. 9,436 13LBA37DA 23 Yrs. 18,015 25
Total 71,017 100
13
Are you pleased with the results of the transaction?
Yes, we are really pleased that it was very well received by the investors as that was one of our main objectives. The transaction in an amount of 76,235 billion THB is the largest single debt transaction in the history of the government and Thai bond market. The transaction reduced the outstanding amount of LB155A by around 50%, extended the maturity from 6 months to 8 years and 9 months. The transaction also helped enhanced liquidity of the destination bonds and more importantly, the transaction did not have any negative impact on the market (Figure 1). In addition, we are also pleased to see that it has covered all types of investors as initially intended during our selection process (Figure 2). Figure 1: Thailand’s inaugural bond switching results Figure 2: Bond Switching Amount classified by investors’ type
LB176A Yrs. months
LB191A Yrs. month
LB21DA Yrs.
LBA37DA Yrs.
Foreign Investor 5%
Financial Institution
63%
Long-term Investor
32%
Investor Amount THB Mil. Percentage
Financial Institution 47,366 63%
Long-term Investor 24,737 32%
Foreign Investor 4,132 5%
Total 76,232 100%
Bond Switching Participated amount classified by Investor
Investor Segmentation in Bond Switching classified by Destination Bond
Financial Institution
Long-termInvestor
ForeignInvestor
FinancialInstitution
Long-termInvestor
ForeignInvestor
FinancialInstitution
Long-termInvestor
ForeignInvestor
FinancialInstitution
Long-termInvestor
ForeignInvestor
19,636 mil.84%
2,015 mil 9% 1,758 mil
7%
18,589 mil 79%
4,020 mil 17% 1,014 mil
4%
5,416 mil 54% 3,914 mil.
39% 734 mil 7%
3,725 mil.20%
14,788 mil.77%
626 mil 3%
14
76,3
37
218,
683
66,8
83
210,
546
133,
015
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
LBF1
4NA
LB14
DA
LB15
5ALB
157A
LB15
DA
LBF1
65A
LB16
7A
LB16
NA
LB17
1ALB
175A
LB17
6A
LB17
OA
LB18
3ALB
183B
LB19
1ALB
193A
LB19
6ALB
198A
LB19
DA
LB21
3ALB
214A
ILB2
17A
LB21
DA
LB22
NA
LB23
3ALB
236A
LB24
4A
LB24
DA
LB25
DA
LB26
7A
LB27
DA
ILB2
83A
LB28
3A
LB29
6A
LB31
6A
LB32
6A
LBA3
7DA
LB38
3A
LB39
6A
LB40
6A
LB41
6A
LB44
6A
LB61
6A
LB155A-76,235 MB
THB Mil.
76,3
37
66,8
83
218,
683
210,
546
133,
015
Destination Bond
Source Bond
Switched Amount
What is in the pipeline for future bond switching transactions? Given the success of the inaugural bond switching transaction, bond switching will have an important role to play in PDMO’s future debt management plans in terms of reducing refinancing risks. We believe that it will be frequently used as our portfolio contains a lot of bonds with maturities more than 50,000 billion THB. In fact, the next bond switching transaction will be LB15DA with outstanding amount of 132,000 billion THB during the first half of 2015. We very much hope that the upcoming transaction will be just as successful and well received by the investors. In the meantime, we are in process of reviewing the feedbacks and relevant details to add any possible improvement for future transactions (Figure 3). Figure 3: Potential bonds for future bond switching transaction
Government Bond
Potential Source Bond for Bond Switching (Outstanding size ≥ 50,000 million baht)
Potential Source Bond for Bond Switching (Outstanding size ≥ 100,000 million baht)
13
2,0
00
21
8,6
83
30
1,9
94
10
0,8
72
21
0,5
46
19
7,8
50
10
2,5
34
12
9,1
42
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
LBF1
4N
ALB
14
DA
LB1
55
ALB
15
7A
LB1
5D
ALB
F16
5A
LB1
67
A
LB1
6N
ALB
17
1A
LB1
75
ALB
17
6A
LB1
7O
ALB
18
3A
LB1
83
B
LB1
91
ALB
19
3A
LB1
96
ALB
19
8A
LB1
9D
A
LB2
13
ALB
21
4A
ILB
21
7A
LB2
1D
A
LB2
2N
ALB
23
3A
LB2
36
A
LB2
44
A
LB2
4D
A
LB2
5D
ALB
26
7A
LB2
7D
AIL
B2
83
ALB
28
3A
LB2
96
A
LB3
16
A
LB3
26
A
LBA
37
DA
LB3
83
A
LB3
96
A
LB4
06
A
LB4
16
A
LB4
46
A
LB6
16
A
2559 2560 2561 2562 2564 2565 2566 2571 2572 2575 2584 2587 2604
LB15DAFY 2016
132,000
THB Mil.
LB176AFY 2017
218,683
LB196AFY 2019
301,994
LB21DAFY 2022
210,546
LB236AFY 2023
197,850
ILB217AFY 2021
100,872
LB296AFY 2029
102,534
LBA37DA
133,015
LB616AFY 2061
129,142
50,000
52
,00
0
55
,00
0
75
,00
0
86
,63
2
66
,88
3
69
,00
0
54
,80
0
69
,00
0
50
,70
0
70
,78
0
77
,73
0
61
,95
0
68
,58
1
95
,93
6
52
,00
0
15
How important is Baht Bond to the PDMO’s Bond Market Development Initiative? The PDMO has always been committed to developing the domestic bond market and the initiatives to promote financial market integration remains high on our priority list, in particular, at a time when ASEAN will become a single market at the end of year 2015. We believe that Baht Bond will not only add diversity and scope to support domestic bond market development but more importantly, it offers our ASEAN neighbors to tap into our domestic for project financing it their own countries. Cross border funds mobilization can open up new opportunities for infrastructure investment which is critical to enhancing connectivity and play a part in promoting “inclusive” growth for ASEAN. In order to efficiently implement Baht Bond initiative, the Baht Bond committee (the Committee) chaired by Director-General of Public Debt Management Office (PDMO), with representatives from PDMO, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as committee members, has been established. Although, the initiatives started more than 10 years ago in 2004, in the early days, progress have been very gradual, but thanks to the commitment from all parties involved the Bath Bond initiatives have progressed significantly in the last few years.
Baht Bond : The Gateway for CLMV Countries Financing
Mr. Nakarin Prompat, Acting Director of International Bond Market Policy Division
“…Cross border funds mobilization can open up new opportunities for infrastructure investment which is critical to enhancing connectivity and play a part in promoting inclusive growth for ASEAN”
16
Can you please elaborate on the progress made? In particular on issues regarding which entities are now able to issue Baht Bond in Thailand?
Initially, Baht Bond issuers were limited to International Financial Institutions such as International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). However, in order to become one of the regional financing centers, the Committee revised and gradually expanded the scope of qualifications of Baht Bond applicants for up to 6 times within the last ten years (2004-2014). Since then the committee has allowed foreign entities with a minimum of an accredited international credit rating of A- to submit applications, increasing supply of high quality bonds in the Thai market. Furthermore, to support the issuance of debt instruments under Asian bond framework, the committee has eased credit rating requirements to foreign government or agency issuers with debt guaranteed by the foreign government or Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility (CGIF), or a combination of a guarantee by CGIF and domestic credit rating of issuer’s country.
What about CLMV countries?
Recently the Baht Bond committee has facilitated the issuance of Baht Bond by entities from Cambodia, Laos PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV). As I mentioned earlier, and I would like to stress here again that, allowing CLMV to tap into our market not only critical to promoting ASEAN financial markets integration but it also play a part in supporting inclusive growth for ASEAN countries, especially in CLMV. Applicants for Baht bond with a minimum domestic credit rating of investment grade (BBB-) of a credit rating agency approved by SEC are now eligible to apply. In order to manage adverse effects and balance of bond quality and funding cost in the local market, the Committee maintains a limit of total issuance by CLMV countries that will be revised from time to time. We are pleased that our efforts has led to EDL-Generation Public Company, a state agency from Laos PDR, successfully issued 6,500 million baht debenture with a local credit rating at BBB+, in 12 Dec 2014.
17
IFIs
Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility(CGIF)
Issuer’s Government Guarantee
Special Purpose Vehicle(SPV)
InternationalCreditRating(S&P’s, Moody’s, Fitch)
Local Credit Rating[Investment Grade]
2004
2006
2011
2012
2013
1
2
3
4
The beginning of Baht Bond
Relaxation
Total9,590 mil.
Proportion Guarantee : Guarantor/Issuer Rating 2014 5
Relaxation
Relaxation
Relaxation
Relaxation
CLMV :2014 6Relaxation
(i) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)
(ii) Asian Development Bank (ADB)
(iii) Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC)
CITI CABEI CARGILL CBA DB
EBI HANA IBK ING KDB
KEXIM KfW SEK WOORI
No issuance
LAO PDR (3 times)(MOF)
3Y (1,2,3) 3,728 mil 5Y (2,3) 4,396 mil.
7Y (3) 1,466 mil.
Noble (Hong Kong) 3Y 2,850 mil.
Permit granted but No issuance
EDL-Gen 5Y 1,500 mil.7Y 2,000 mil.
10Y 3,000 mil.
What is the current size of Baht Bond and who has issued baht bonds? At the end of December, 2014, outstanding of Baht Bond is 91,374 million baht. Even though, it accounts for only 1% of total domestic bond market but it is a growing component with continued commitment for further enhancement from all relevant parties. More than half of Baht Bond outstanding was issued by Korean issuers, however in the past 2 years after relaxing requirements of Baht Bond applicants, there was a significant increase in Baht Bond outstanding issued by entities from CLMV counties. The government of Lao PDR has issued Baht Bond at 9,590 million baht by using the waiver of credit rating requirements to foreign government as well as the recent issuance of EDL-Generation Pubic Company. We expect more issuance in years to come as entities from CLMV countries have expressed strong interest in financing by Baht Bond issuance in Thailand.
THB mil.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
(27,900)
31%
(22,409)25%
(5,668)6%
(9,066)
10%
(6,330)7%
(5,000)
5%
(1,500)
2% (2,800)3%
(2,000)
2%
(5,701)
6%
IBK
Woori
CA-CIB
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Lao PDR
Lao PDR Lao PDR Lao PDR Lao PDR
KEXIM
KEXIMKEXIM KEXIM
KEXIM
KEXIM
KEXIM
KEXIM
HanaWoori
Woori Woori
Woori
Hana
ADB
CBA
ING
NOBLE
CABEI
AFD
CABEI
CITI CABEI
Year
EDL-Gen EDL-GenEDL-Gen
(3,000)3%
Korean Issuers IFIs OthersLaotian Issuers
59%(54,300 THB Mil.)
22%(19,984 THB Mil.)
18%(16,090 THB Mil.)
(1,000 THB Mil.)
Korean Issuers
IFIs
Laotian Issuers
Others
Source: PDMO at the end of December, 2014
18
Guidelines for Considerations of Applicant's qualifications
The Committee has divided the evaluation criterions into two dimensions; Bond market impact (merit base) and Qualifications of applicants (qualification base). Factors of market impact that are considered include; impact to market participants, market liquidity, SWAP, baht currency fluctuation, the possibility of fund mobilization for investment in Thailand. As for qualifications, applicants must comply with MOF’s policy and regulations as well as SEC’s registration and disclosure requirements.
What is the application process (Rounds of consideration) for interest issuers?
After some changes since the beginning of Baht Bond, considerations of Baht Bond applications are now scheduled into 3 rounds per year. Applications must be submitted within March, July or November and the permitted applicants will be allowed to issue Baht Bond within 9 months period. Any permitted applicants that were unable to issue Baht Bond within the specific period will not be eligible to re-submit their application in the following round of the granted period.
What’s next for Baht Bond?
The Ministry of Finance is planning to modify Baht Bond regulations and procedure to be consistent with global standards. It will focus on the adjustment of rounds of consideration, improvement of regulations, steps in the issuance process of Baht Bond, qualifications of countries who willing to apply for Baht Bond permission, together with the possibility of the allocation of partial fund for entities in ASEAN to be in line with entry into AEC by the end of 2015. We are the process of considering feedbacks from previous Baht Bond arrangers, so that we can make the right improvements in terms of rules & conditions amendments to suit all relevant parties and support the year of ASEAN Economic Community.
19
20
Progress Update
Funding Needs FY2015
Greenshoe Option on LB21DA : Privilege for MOF Outright PDs
Saving Bond FY2015
GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q2/FY2015
PDMO Bond Calendar FY2015
Ne
wB
orr
ow
ing
Ro
ll O
ver
39
0,X
XX
MB
3
15
,XX
X M
B
RolloverGovt Debt
RolloverFIDF Debt
209,XXX
86,XXX
On-Lending 29,XXX
Loan Bond5-10-15-30–50-yrs
Savings Bond Promissory Notes
and Others
Total Fund Raising Plan 705,XXX THB Mil.FY 2015Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
By Bills By Instruments
-Tentative-
Inflation-Linked Bond
Amortized Bond
350,XXX
55,XXX
40,XXX
445,XXXTHB Mil.
Benchmark Bond
Refinance (Pre-Fund) 66,XXX
On-Lending 59,XXX
230,XXXTHB Mil.
250,XXXDeficit
2,XXXNational Catastrophe Insurance Fund
4,XXXSubstitution for foreign currency loan
* Include Infrastructure Investment
113,014 340,122 191,095 129,124 85,545 104,607 271,599 100,000 101,800 109,000
52,000 149,209 231,000 304,181 181,506 127,830 118,209 208,994 6,300 102,255 182,493
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015F FY2016F FY2017F FY2018F FY2019F FY2020F FY2021F FY2022F
113,014 340,122 191,095 129,124 85,545 104,607 271,599 100,000 101,800 109,000
52,000 149,209 231,000 304,181 181,506 127,830 118,209 208,994 6,300 102,255 182,493
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015F FY2016F FY2017F FY2018F FY2019F FY2020F FY2021F FY2022F
86MB
2,400,000MB
Government Funding Needs 560,000 THB Mil. per Year
Ne
wB
orr
ow
ing
Ro
ll O
ver
-0- -0-
-0-
-0- -0-
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
FIDF
GOVT
Infrastructure Investment B u d g e t B a l a n c e
Deficit Bill
6,300
Insurance Decree
2015 - 2022
NewBorrowing
300,000MB
Per year(2015-2022)
Rollover
260,000MB
Per year(2015-2022)
37,900
-0- -0-
2,XXXMB
Substitution for foreign currency bond4,XXXMB
-0-
47,414MB
100,000
59,XXXMB
On-Lending
To be announced on 13 Jan 2015
21
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
LBF
14
NA
LB1
4D
ALB
15
5A
LB1
57
AS
B1
5N
ALB
15
DA
SB
16
5A
LBF
16
5A
SB
ST
16
6A
LB1
67
ALB
16
NA
SB
16
DA
LB1
71
ALB
17
5A
LB1
76
ALB
17
OA
LB1
83
ALB
18
3B
SB
18
9A
LB1
91
A
LB1
93
ALB
19
6A
LB1
98
ALB
19
DA
LB2
13
ALB
21
4A
LB2
1D
AIL
B2
17
A
LB2
2N
ALB
23
3A
LB2
36
A
LB2
44
ALB
24
DA
LB2
5D
A
LB2
67
ALB
27
DA
ILB
28
3A
LB2
83
ALB
29
6A
LB3
16
ALB
32
6A
LBA
37
DA
LB3
83
A
LB3
96
ALB
40
6A
LB4
16
A
LB4
46
A
LB6
16
A
15
30
50
ALL FY2015 Government BondBenchmark Bonds : 5-10-15-30-50-yrsInflation-Linked Bonds : ILB 15-yrsAmortized Bond : LBA 25-yrs
Million Baht
-Tentative-
5
LB2
1D
A
Top
-up
Top
-up
ILB
21
7A
Top
-up
Budget Deficit 250,000
Rollover BD 273,xxx
On-lending 19,xxx
Benchmark+Others
SB/PN/others FY2015 628,xxx MB
New
ILB
45X
X
New
Rollover FIDF 86,xxx
10
Top
-up
15-yrInflation-Linked Bond
25-yrAmortized Bond
LB2
5D
A
ILB
28
3A
Top
-up
Top
-up
Top
-up
Top
-up
Top
-up
Benchmark Bonds Auction Size Total
5-yrs (LB21DA) 18,000-20,000
350,xxxMB
10-yrs (LB25DA) 12,000-16,000
15-yrs (LB296A) 8,000-10,000
30-yrs (LB446A) 8,000-10,000
50-yrs (LB616A) 8,000-10,000
ILB (ILB283A) 4,000-5,000 95,xxxMB
LBA (LBA37DA) 8,000-10,000
15
25
LB2
96
A
LBA
37
DA
LB4
46
A
LB6
16
A
Total Benchmark Bonds 445,xxx MB
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
10,0
00 M
B
10,0
00 M
B
1.46
0.5
0.28
-0.56
-1.1
-1.42-1.34
-0.78-0.9
-1.1
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
-15,000
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
T-Bills Plan Q2/2015FY 2015Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4THB Mil. Basis Points
1 month
1) 23 Feb 20152) 3 Mar 2015
3 months
22
Greenshoe Option Privilege for MOF Outright PDsIn FY2015
Allocated(Classified by number of PDs and
their % share of total allocated size)
Submit on
“T+1” by
9.30 a.m.
Greenshoe Option will begin in January 2015 regarding to the readiness of the BOT’s add-on electronic auction system
+20%
at AAY
Series LB21DA (5-Yr Benchmark Bond .. Exclusivity)
Accepted Rate Average Accepted Yield (AAY)
Maximum Amount Additional 20% of the allocated amount
Exercise Period T (After Auction Period between 11.00-11.30 a.m.)
Settlement Date T+2
- -
LB21DA
2nd auction
20,000 MB.14 Jan 15
Auction + Greenshoe = 100,000 - 116,000 MB.
LB21DA
1st auction
20,000 MB.
21 Oct 14
LB21DA
3rd auction
20,000 MB.
25 Feb 15
LB21DA
4th auction
20,000 MB.
LB21DA
5th auction
20,000 MB.
Greenshoe 0 - 4,000 MB.
Greenshoe 0 - 4,000 MB.
Greenshoe 0 - 4,000 MB.
Greenshoe 0 - 4,000 MB.
LB21DA
6th auction4,000 – 20,000 MB.
2014
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
2015
23
FY2016 Expiration of 3 SB 89,597 THB Mil. (55%)
FY2017 Expiration of 2 SB 8,000 THB Mil. (5%)
FY2018 Expiration of 2 SB 35,577 THB Mil. (21%)
FY2021 Expiration of 1 SB 11,836 THB Mil. (8%) FY2024 Expiration of 1 SB 18,164 THB Mil. (11%)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
3. SBST166A
1. SB15NA
7. SB189A
82,230 MB
3,367 MB
31,577 MB
A
No more Saving Bond Issued … No more Saving Bond Remaining
The Last SB will be expiredin next 10 years
Savings Bond : Safe Haven for Retail Investors
Bond Tenors
4. SB16DA4,000 MB
2. SB165A
4,000 MB
2016
5. SB175A
2017 2018
4,000 MB
C
2024
8. SB217A
9. SB247A
A
E
F
2021
11,836 MB
18,164 MB
Savings Bond Outstanding at the end of December 2014
163,174 MB
As of December 30th, 2014
(9 Series)
B
D
C
B
D
6. SB17DA 4,000 MB
E
24
25,000 MB
366,490 MB
424,311 MB 381,796 MB
483,839 MB
0%
35%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
Proportion of Household and Non-profit in Government Debt Securities
Structure Shift … Savings Bond was a Main Instrumentfor Government funding under the economic crisis
MB
29%
4%Savings Bond Outstanding
% o
f In
vest
ors
in G
ove
rnm
ent
Deb
t Se
curi
ties
73,577 MB
30,000 MB
-0-
163,174 MB
Savings Bond outstanding in Thai bond market
163,174 MB
(at the end of December 2014)
65,577 MB
18,000 MB
4%
Government Debt Securities(Classified by Types of Investors)
Today
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 17 2018 2021 2014FY
Insurance and
Other Corporation
Depository Corporation
NR
BOT
Householdand Non-profit 40%
33%
4%
18%
5%
Go
vern
me
nt
Bo
nd
Au
ctio
n S
che
du
le f
or
Q2
/FY
20
15
L
B21D
A =
Re-o
pen
L
B25D
A =
Re
-ope
n
I
LB28
3A =
R
e-op
en
LB2
96A
=
Re
-ope
n
LBA
37DA
=
R
e-op
en
L
B446
A =
Re-
open
L
B616
A =
Re-o
pen
Excl
usi
vity
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D O
NLY
Infl
atio
n-L
inke
d B
on
dA
mo
rtiz
ed
Bo
nd
Au
ctio
n D
ate
LB2
1D
A5
-yrs
Excl
usi
vity
LB2
5D
A1
0-y
rsIL
B2
83
A1
5-y
rsIn
fla
tio
n-L
inke
d
Bo
nd
LB2
96
A1
5-y
rsLB
A3
7D
A2
5-y
rsA
mo
rtiz
ed
Bo
nd
LB4
46
A3
0-y
rsLB
61
6A
50
-yrs
Tota
l
7 J
an 2
01
59
,00
09
,00
0
14
Jan
20
15
20
,00
02
0,0
00
21
Jan
20
15
16
,00
05
,00
02
1,0
00
28 J
an 2
015
4 F
eb2
01
59
,00
09
,00
0
11
Feb
20
15
5,0
00
6,0
00
11
,00
0
18
Feb
20
15
10
,00
01
0,0
00
25
Feb
20
15
20
,00
02
0,0
00
3 M
ar 2
01
51
0,0
00
10
,00
0
11
Mar
20
15
18
Mar
20
15
5,0
00
5,0
00
25
Mar
20
15
14
,00
01
4,0
00
Tota
l4
0,0
00
30
,00
01
5,0
00
10
,00
09
,00
01
9,0
00
6,0
00
12
9,0
00
Co
up
on
3.6
5%
3.8
5%
1.2
5%
4.8
75
%4
.26
%4
.67
5%
4.8
5%
Mat
uri
tyD
ate
17
-Dec
-20
21
12
-Dec
-20
25
12
-Mar
-20
28
22
-Ju
n-2
02
91
2-D
ec-2
03
72
9-J
un
-20
44
17
-Ju
n-2
06
1
25
16
Sa
tS
un
12
34
5
6A
uct
ion
T-b
ill7
89
10
11
12
13
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
21
Au
ctio
n L
B2
1D
A (
5y)
: 2
0,0
00
MB
IL
B2
83
A (
15
y) :
4,0
00
MB
22
23
Ch
ula
lon
gko
rn D
ay2
42
52
6
27
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
28
Ro
adsh
ow
De
bt
Swit
ch :
An
no
un
ce D
est
inat
ion
Bo
nd
s
29
Au
ctio
n L
B2
96
A (
15
y) :
8,0
00
MB
L
B6
16
A (
50
y) :
9,0
00
MB
30
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D C
om
mit
tee
:
An
nu
al P
D's
Eva
luti
on
31
Qu
arte
rly
Mac
roe
con
om
ics
Re
po
rt
(FP
O)
12
3Fi
rst
day
of
sub
mis
sio
n f
or
Bah
t B
on
d A
pp
licat
ion
(1
/20
15
)
45
67
89
10
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
11
12
Au
ctio
n IL
B2
83
A (
15
y) :
4,0
00
MB
13
14
15
16
17
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
18
19
Au
ctio
n L
BA
37
DA
(2
5y)
: 1
0,0
00
MB
20
21
22
23
24
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
25
26
Au
ctio
n L
B4
46
(3
0y)
: 9
,00
0 M
B2
72
8La
st d
ay o
f su
bm
issi
on
fo
r
Bah
t B
on
d A
pp
licat
ion
(1
/20
15
)
29
30
1Is
sue
Re
gula
r Sa
vin
g B
on
d 2
/20
15
(3y)
:
4,0
00
MB
(1
De
c 1
4 -
31
Mar
15
)
23
Au
ctio
n L
B2
5D
A (
10
y) :
12
,00
0 M
B
IL
B2
83
A (
15
y) :
4,0
00
MB
45
H.M
. th
e K
ing'
s B
irth
day
67
8A
uct
ion
T-b
ill9
Au
ctio
n L
B2
96
A (
15
y) :
9,0
00
MB
10
Co
nst
itu
tio
n D
ay1
11
2B
aht
Bo
nd
1/F
Y20
15
13
14
15
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
16
17
Au
ctio
n L
B6
16
A (
50
y) :
9,0
00
MB
18
Qu
arte
rly
PD
Ma
rke
t D
ialo
gue
19
20
21
22
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
30
31
New
Yea
r's
Eve
1N
ew Y
ear'
s D
ay2
Pu
blic
Ho
liday
34
5A
uct
ion
T-b
ill6
7A
uct
ion
LB
44
6A
(3
0y)
: 1
0,0
00
MB
89
10
11
12
Firs
t d
ay I
ssu
e S
pe
cial
Sav
ing
Bo
nd
(5y
and
10
y) :
10
0,0
00
MB
13
14
Au
ctio
n L
B2
1D
A (
5y)
: 2
0,0
00
MB
15
16
17
18
19
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
20
21
Au
ctio
n L
B2
5D
A (
10
y) :
16
,00
0 M
B
IL
B2
83
A (
15
y) :
5,0
00
MB
22
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D C
om
mit
tee
:
Qu
art
erly
PD
's E
valu
tio
n
23
Last
day
Iss
ue
Sp
eci
al S
avin
g B
on
d
(5y
and
10
y) :
10
0,0
00
MB
24
25
26
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
27
28
29
30
Qu
arte
rly
Mac
roe
con
om
ics
Re
po
rt
(FP
O)
31
1
2A
uct
ion
T-b
ill3
4A
uct
ion
LB
A3
7D
A (
25
y) :
9,0
00
MB
56
78
9A
uct
ion
T-b
ill1
01
1A
uct
ion
LB
61
6A
(5
0y)
: 6
,00
0 M
B
IL
B2
83
A (
15
y) :
5,0
00
MB
12
13
14
15
16
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
17
18
Au
ctio
n L
B2
96
A (
15
y) :
10
,00
0 M
B1
92
02
12
2
23
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
24
25
Au
ctio
n L
B2
1D
A (
5y)
: 2
0,0
00
MB
26
27
28
1
2Fi
rst
day
of
sub
mis
sio
n f
or
Bah
t B
on
d A
pp
licat
ion
(2
/20
15
)
3A
uct
ion
LB
44
6A
(3
0y)
: 1
0,0
00
MB
4M
akh
a B
uch
a D
ay5
67
8
9Fi
rst
day
of
sub
mis
sio
n f
or
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D's
Ap
plic
atio
n
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
17
18
Au
ctio
n IL
B2
83
A (
15
y) :
5,0
00
MB
19
Qu
arte
rly
PD
Ma
rke
t D
ialo
gue
20
21
22
23
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
24
25
Au
ctio
n L
B2
5D
A (
10
y) :
14
,00
0 M
B2
62
7La
st d
ay o
f su
bm
issi
on
fo
r
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D's
Ap
plic
atio
n
28
29
Mar
20
15
Th
u
No
v 2
01
4
De
c 2
01
4
Jan
20
15
Feb
20
15
Q1
Q2
PD
MO
Bo
nd
Ca
len
da
r FY
20
15
Fri
Oct
20
14
Mo
nT
ue
We
d
MP
C
MP
C
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
MP
C
MP
C
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
Re
tail
O
nly Re
tail
O
nly
Re
tail
O
nly
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
Au
ctio
n T
-bill
26
17
30
31
Last
day
of
sub
mis
sio
n f
or
Bah
t B
on
d A
pp
licat
ion
(2
/20
15
)
12
34
5
6C
hak
ri D
ay7
89
10
Bah
t B
on
d 2
/FY2
01
51
11
2
13
Son
gkra
n F
esti
val D
ay1
4So
ngk
ran
Fes
tiva
l Day
15
Son
gkra
n F
esti
val D
ay1
61
71
81
9
20
21
22
23
Lon
g-te
rm In
vest
or
Me
etin
g2
42
52
6
27
28
29
30
Qu
arte
rly
Mac
roe
con
om
ics
Re
po
rt
(FP
O)
1N
atio
nal
Lab
ou
r D
ay
(On
ly B
ank
clo
ses)
23
4Is
sue
Re
gula
r Sa
vin
g B
on
d 2
/20
15
(3y)
:
4,0
00
MB
(4
May
- 3
1 A
ug
15
)
5C
oro
nat
ion
Day
67
89
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D C
om
mit
tee
:
Firs
t A
pp
lica
tio
n's
Rev
iew
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
CG
IF M
OC
Me
etin
g2
93
03
1
1V
isak
ha
Bu
cha
Day
23
45
67
89
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
Qu
arte
rly
PD
Ma
rke
t D
ialo
gue
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
1M
id-y
ear
Ban
k H
olid
ay
2Fi
rst
day
of
sub
mis
sio
n f
or
Bah
t B
on
d A
pp
licat
ion
(3
/20
15
)
34
5
67
89
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Last
day
of
sub
mis
sio
n f
or
Bah
t B
on
d A
pp
licat
ion
(3
/20
15
)
30
Asa
rnh
a B
uch
a D
ay3
1B
ud
dh
ist
Len
t D
ay1
2
3Q
uar
terl
y M
acro
eco
no
mic
s R
ep
ort
(FP
O)
45
67
89
10
11
12
H.M
. Th
e Q
uee
n's
Bir
thd
ay1
31
4B
aht
Bo
nd
3/F
Y20
15
15
16
17
18
19
20
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D C
om
mit
tee
:
Fin
al R
evie
w
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
12
34
56
78
91
01
11
21
3
14
15
16
17
An
nu
al P
DM
O-M
ark
et
Dia
logu
e1
81
92
0
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D L
ice
nse
gran
ted
to
a n
ew
me
mb
er
Q3
Q4
May
20
15
Jun
20
15
Jul 2
01
5
Au
g 2
01
5
Sep
20
15
Ap
r 2
01
5
Rem
ark
: R
oya
l Plo
ughin
g C
ere
mony
Day-
waitin
g f
or
an a
nnouce
ment
This
sch
edule
is
subje
ct t
o c
hange w
ithout
prior
notice
.
MP
C
MP
C
MP
C
MP
C
Re
tail
O
nly
27
28
Basic & Essentials
Public Debt Outstanding (as of Oct 2014) 5,640,578 THB Mil. (46.50% of GDP) Bond Market Capitalization (as of Dec 2014) 9,303,626 THB Mil. (78% of GDP)
Total GOVT Debt (Direct + FIDF) (as of Nov 2014) 3,372,107 THB Mil. (41 Bond Series)
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOVT Direct Debt Profile Dramatically (as of Oct 2014) » Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) 10yrs 9mths» Average Cost 4.0%
» Well-Balanced Fixed : Floating Ratio 88 : 12» Well-Distributed Maturity Profile 46:17:37 (<5 : 6-10 : >10yrs)
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond (as of Dec 2014) » NR Holding in THB Bond 683,215THB Mil. (7.36% of Thai Bond Market Cap.)
GOVT Bond : 625,483 THB Mil. (18.1% of GOVT Bond Outstanding.) BOT Bond : 56,980 THB Mil. (2.1% of BOT Bond Outstanding.) Others : 752 THB Mil.
» Annual Capital Flow (YTD) GOVT Bond : +29,642 THB Mil. BOT Bond : -53,807THB Mil.
Inaugural 10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (10-yr)
Long-term Fixed Promissory Notes (25-35-45-yr)
Electronic Retail Savings Bond (3-5-yr) STRIPS Transaction
Scripless Retail Savings Bond Liquidity
Re-open ILB 7 yr or Launch ILB 30yr
Super- Size Inaugural 25-yr Back-End Amortized Bond
Domestic Bond Market in Transition
Building Yield Curve /Enhancing Liquidity
Regional Connectivity / AEC
Market Infrastructure
Innovation /Product Development
Debt FolioEnhancement
SustainableSource of Fund
Activated Public Debt Management Fund
Appointed 14 MOF-Outright PDStrengthening PD system
(Exclusivity, League Table, Greenshoes Option)
Bond Switching (1st execution: 28 Nov 14)
Baht Bond (Foreign Issuers Bond)
ATM Lengthened
Thai Khem Khang (350,000 THB Mil.)
2,000,000 THB Mil. Long-Term Infrastructure Inv’tWater Decree (350,000 THB Mil.)
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile / Bond Switching
Well-Balanced Fixed-Floating Ratio Cost Lowered
FIDF Decree Passed = 70,000 THB Mil. Fiscal Space
Market Deepening Oriented(2010 - 2012)
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN
(2013 - 2016)
Well-Distributed Investor Base
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN
8 Tenors ofBenchmark Bonds
35
7
1015
2030 50
2,400,000 THB Mil. Long-Term Infrastructure Inv’t
10 15 20 30 50
150,000 MB
Liquidity-Oriented
Outstanding Amount 3 5 7
300,000 MB
Full Funding Capacity : 1,150,000 THB MB.
Market ConsultationAnnual PDMO Market Dialogue
Quarter PDMO one-on-one PD Dialogue
STRIPS Bond
Baht Bond (CLMV)
Foreign Currency Bond
Credit Guarantee Investment Facility (CGIF)
Bond Day
Quarter PDMO one-on-group “MoF Outright PD” Dialogue
Annual PDMO Market Dialogue
Ongoing Project
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
29
Forecast Public Debt to GDP
Source: Policy and Planning Bureau, December 2014 , Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
(Approved by the Public Debt Policy and Supervision Committee)
Public debt projection will be in line with fiscal sustainability framework and less than 50% of GDP
Sustainability Framework
Public Debt to GDP < 60%
7.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
% to GDP
Public Debt to GDP Repayment Budget/Budget Expenditure
Balance Budget
Sustainability FrameworkPublic Debt/GDP < 60%
Repayment Budget/Budget Expenditure < 15%
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
47.18%
47.5%
47.1%
46.3%
45.3%
43.9%
42.0%
7.4%
7.1%
9.3%
9.5%
9.3%
9.1%
8.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
20
15
f
20
16
f
20
17
f
20
18
f
20
19
f
20
20
f
% to GDP
Public Debt to GDP Repayment Budget/Budget Expenditure
Balance Budget
Sustainability FrameworkPublic Debt/GDP < 60%
Repayment Budget/Budget Expenditure < 15%
Public debt Outstanding (as of October 2014) = 5.64 THB Trillion (46.50% of GDP)
Source : Information Technology Centre, PDMO
GOVT Debt51.06%
2.88 THB Trillion
GOVT Debt(for FIDF)
19.22%
1.07 THB Trillion
Non-Financial
Sate Enterprise Debt
19.04%
1.08 THB Trillion
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
10.50%
0.59 THB Trillion
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.19%
0.015 THB Trillion
Components of Public Debt Units : THB Mil.
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF) 2,879,968
2. Government Debt (for FIDF) 1,073,848
3. Non-Financial Sate Enterprise Debt 1,083,994
4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 592,320
5. Autonomous Agency Debt 10,448
Public Debt Outstanding 5,640,578
*including 75,476.40 THB Mil. of External Debt
*
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
30
9.4%
**Source: BOT Exchange rate (End of June 2014)
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
3 5 7 10 15 20 30 50
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
LB 3 yrs 150,000 THB Mil.
LB 5 yrs 120,000 THB Mil.LB 7 yrs 80,000 THB Mil.LB 10 yrs 80,000 THB Mil.LB 15 yrs 60,000 THB Mil.LB 20 yrs 60,000 THB Mil.LB 30 yrs 30,000 THB Mil.LB 50 yrs 20,000 THB Mil.
Benchmark Bond
($4.6 Bil.)
($2.4 Bil.)
($3.6 Bil.)
($1.8 Bil.)
($1.8 Bil.)($0.9 Bil.)($0.6 Bil.)
($2.4 Bil.)
**
107
%
($35 Bil.)**
Last Update : June 2014
50
iBoxx Asia ex JapanMarkit
7.8% 7.6%
Thailand’s Loan Bonds (LBs) weighting in international indicesGBI-EM Global
JP Morgan
7.0%
The “Missing Composition” of Leader role in the Bond Market
20
15
30
3
Source: ThaiBMA Government Bond Yield Curve (End of Dec 2014)
5
Government Funding Instruments
Benchmark Bond ~600,000THB Mil. (52%)
Savings Bond ~100,000THB Mil. (8%)
Amortized Bond ~100,000THB Mil (8%)
Inflation-Linked Bond ~80,000THB Mil. (7%)
Promissory Note ~40,000THB Mil. (4%)
Floating Rate Bond ~30,000THB Mil. (3%)
Bank Loan ~200,000THB Mil. (18%)
Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
($18.2 Bil.)
($1.2 Bil.)
($3.0 Bil.)
($0.9 Bil.)
($34.8 Bil.)
($3.0 Bil.)
($2.4 Bil.)
($6.1 Bil.)Benchmark
Bond
Infrastructure
liquidity
**Source: BOT Exchange rate (End of December 2014)
TTM
1,150,000 THB Mil. per Year
Asian Local MarketsHSBC
31
≤ 1<yr≤3 3<yr≤5 5<yr≤10 10<yr≤50
71%29%
10%
18%
20% 22% 30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Dec
emb
er20
14
Bank Loan /GDP Equity/GDP Bond Market / GDP
Bond Market Cap. = 9.3 THB Trillion GOVT Bond = 3.5 THB Trillion
119%
75%
Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer% Share of GDP
Maturity Profile
BOT vs GOVT Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
106%
Asian Fin. Crisis
12%
24%
128%
($307 Bil.)* ($116 Bil.)*
BOT ATM = 5mths GOVT ATM = 5yrs 2mth
*Source: BOT Exchange rate as End of Mar 2014 End of December 2014
*End of Dec 2014
• Allow both issuer and investors to improve their portfolio
• Larger outstanding size + Less bond series Enhance liquidity in the secondary market
• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP • Pay back the bond principal by installments Promote the government’s fiscal discipline
FY2007 – FY2015 Innovation of GOVT Debt SecuritiesFY
20
07
-10
FY 2
01
1
• Broaden investor base – Retail investors• Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond
• Increase floating debt ratio of Total Government Debt Portfolio • Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)
• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity of Total Government Debt Portfolio• Meet Long-term investors’ demand
FY 2
01
2-2
01
5
PDDF Activated(Public Debt Restructuring
and Domestic Bond Market Development Fund)
UpgradePD Privileges
Baht Bond
CGIF Activated(Credit Guarantee and
Investment Facility)
Step-up Savings Bond
Floating Rate Bond
30-yr Benchmark Bond
• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase / Offer throughout the year• Develop the retail bond into an electronic form Scripless System• Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches
• Strong anti-inflationary signal• Deepen the Development of the Bond market
• 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies
• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity
• 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)50-yr Benchmark Bond
Electronic Retail Savings Bond
10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)
• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors• Non-Benchmark tenorsFixed Rate Promissory Note
Bond Switching & Consolidation
Amortized Bond
15-yr ILB
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
32
CGIF 0.03%
Corp Bond
23%
Government
38%SOEs
8%
• 75 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are issued by Government, Bank of Thailand and State-Owned EnterprisesIssuers
• 97 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment GradeCredit Rating
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor typesInvestors
Domestic Bond Market(Classified by Issuers)
Equilibrium of Domestic Bond Market
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
Total of 3.4 THB Trillion
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
BOT 6%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
36%
DepositoryCorporation
33%
NR17%
Source : ThaiBMA (End of December 2014) Source : BOT (End of November 2014)
BOT 6%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
39%
DepositoryCorporation
32%
NR18%
Domestic Bond Market(Classified by Credit Rating)
Total of 9.2 THB Trillion
BOT
30%
AA 5%
A 8%
Government
38%
SOEs8%
Source : ThaiBMA (End of December 2014)
Baht Bond 1%
CGIF 0.03%
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Total of 9.3 THB Trillion
BOT
30%
SOEs
8%
Corp Bond
24% Government
37%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
33%
DepositoryCorporation
45%
NR10%
BOT 8%
DepositoryCorporation
40%
BOT 5%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
33%
NR18%
4%
Household and Non-profit
SOEs8%
BOT
30%
Government
37%
AA 5%
A 11%
BBB
3%
Non-rated2%
1. Trading Volume 2. Turnover Ratio3. Demand Concentration 4. Auction Price
FY2008-FY2014 Key Success Indicators
Benchmark Bond 5 yrs and Below : Highest secondary trading volume in every year
Top 10 GOVT Bond Series : Accounted for 90% of all GOVT bond trading volume in secondary market
Well-Developed Benchmark Bond Pays Off : Even with greater size of issuance, the cost of funding is still at market rate
Unit: % Share of Market Trading Volume
Unit: % Share of Secondary Trading Volume
5-yr Benchmark Bond’s Higher Turnover Ratio : Even the higher outstanding size, turnover ratio is still more than 2 times
Unit: Times
To be Updated
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
27%
20%
28%
20%9
29%
21%
7%
26%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
75%
84%
76%77%
80%
90% 90%92%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
LB15DA
LB155A
LB145B
LB133A
LB176A
1.5
3.12.4
4.2
2.8
4.2
2.9
LB196A
LB133A
LB196A
3.2
7.5
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
223363+1.2 bps
-0.4 bps -0.2 bps
Unit: USD Bil.
14.713.712.8
+1.4 bps +3.2 bps 16.5 15.9
+0.9 bps
7.5
14.6
-2.7 bps
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
33
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
LB19
6A
LB17
6A
LB21
DA
LB23
6A
LBA
37D
A
LB61
6A
LB15
DA
LB29
6A
ILB
217A
LB41
6A
LB18
3B
ILB
283A
LB15
5A
LB17
OA
LB27
DA
LB19
3A
LB21
3A
LB32
6A
LB19
1A
LB28
3A
LB44
6A
LB16
NA
LB19
8A
LB16
7A
LB23
3A
LB26
7A
LB24
DA
LB14
DA
LB17
5A
LB25
DA
LB31
6A
LB17
1A
LB21
4A
LB19
DA
LB15
7A
LB24
4A
LB22
NA
LB18
3A
LB40
6A
LB39
6A
LB38
3A
Ou
tsta
nd
ing
size
(TH
B M
il.)
Tier 1: >100,000MB(9 Series)
Tier 2: 50,000 – 100,000MB(16 Series)
5
10
15
LB
27
DA
LB
21
DA
LB
21
DA
ILB
28
3A
LB
17
6A
LB
44
6A
LB
19
3A
LB
61
6A
LB
A3
7D
A
15
ILB
Tier 1 > 100,000 THB Mil. in Size (83% of Trading Volume)
LB
29
6A
Tier 2 > 50,000 THB Mil. in Size (16% of Trading Volume)
50
Total GOVT Bond = 41 Series(3,372,107 THB Mil.)
(End of November 2014)
LB
19
6A
30
25
LBA
THB Mil.
Source : ThaiBMA
FY2015 Q1 Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market
Tier 2Tier 1
100,000
91% 1%8%
LB
25
DA
FY 2015 on-the-run Innovative Bond
FY 2015 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
LB
15
5A
BS
Bond Switching : Source Bond
0 50 100
83% 16%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
LB14
DA
LB15
5A
LB15
7A
LB15
DA
LB16
7A
LB16
NA
LB17
1A
LB17
5A
LB17
6A
LB17
OA
LB18
3A
LB18
3B
LB19
1A
LB19
3A
LB19
6A
LB19
8A
LB19
DA
LB21
3A
LB21
4A
ILB
217A
LB21
DA
LB22
NA
LB23
3A
LB23
6A
LB24
4A
LB24
DA
LB25
DA
LB26
7A
LB27
DA
ILB
283A
LB28
3A
LB29
6A
LB31
6A
LB32
6A
LBA
37D
ALB
383
ALB
396
ALB
406
ALB
416
ALB
446
A
LB61
6A
TTM
Source : ThaiBMA
Well-Distributed Bond Maturity Profile(End of November 2014)
LB
27
DA
LB
21
DA
LB
17
6A
1 2 543
LB
25
DA
ILB
28
3A
LB
44
6A
LB
61
6A
LB
A3
7D
A
LB
29
6A
LB
21
DA
6 – 10 years 11 – 50 years
10
50
Current Outstanding ≤ THB 50 Bil.
FY 2014 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Current Outstanding ≥ THB 100 Bil.
Current Outstanding = THB 50-100 Bil.
5
FY 2014 on-the-run Innovative Bond
THB Mil.
100,000
15
15
ILB
25LBA
30
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
The outstanding size of loan bond maturing in the next 5 years
is 1,377,109 THB Mil. (43% of Total GOVT Bond)
LB
15
5A
BS
Bond Switching : Source Bond
34
35
(1) ATM Lengthened(2) Cost Lowered(3) Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio(4) Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved
GOV’T Direct Debt Profile Dramatically
Well-Balanced Fixed/Floating Ratio(Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile(Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs is less than 50% of Total Debt)
Floating 12%Floating 10%
ATM
5yrs 3mths
ATM
10yrs 9mths
Avg. cost
4.5%
As of Dec 2007 As of October 2014
Avg. cost
4.0%
Fixed
90%
Note : Government Direct Debt = 2.80 THB Million (exclude FIDF)
Fixed
88%
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 50 bps.(While ATM Lengthened by 5 yrs)
Average-Time-to-Maturity
LENGTHENED by 5 yrs
next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10yrs +
54%28% 18%
next 5 yrs year 6 -10 10 yrs +
54%
28%18%
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
next 5 yrs year 6 -10 10 yrs +
46%
17%37%
268,
022
164,
297
135,
665
136,
739
360,
484
4,75
0
11,8
36
184,
110
79,8
50
50,6
64
47,0
00
212,
360
101,
512
2,20
0
41,9
00
33,5
81
6,50
0
107,
000
5,50
0
20,0
00
95,9
36
40,0
00
29,8
00
27,8
00
135,
114
86,6
30
16,0
00
22,0
00
18,9
00
43,0
00
24,7
00
35,0
00
13,0
00
939
24,7
57
20,0
00
10,0
00
12,6
93
60,0
00
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
5844
0
3983
6
1419
62.5
1
2500
0
25,0
00
3790
0
4000
0
0
7100
0
0
0 3500
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2710
4.62
6753
7.23
1280
00
9041
8.11
1018
00
0
6900
0
1268
50
1400
0
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Next 5 yrs 6-10 yrs 10 yrs +
44%
25%31%
Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) = 9.1 yrs
Average Cost = 4.00%
Fixed : Floating = 87 : 13Total Domestic GOVT Debt = 3.88* THB Trillion
Assumptions : 6 months BIBOR = 2.29%, 6 months Fixed Deposit Rate = 1.41%, Inflation = 1.48%
As of Oct 2014
**Excluding 76,048 THB Mil. of Foreign Debt
* Excluding 75,476 THB Mil. of Foreign Debt
GOVT Debt (for FIDF) = 1,073,848 THB Mil.
GOVT Direct Debt (exclude FIDF) = 2,804,492** THB Mil.
TTM Fiscal Year
Budget Deficit T-Bill TKK On-lending Loan Water Decree
Maturity Profile
ATM = 10yrs 9mths Avg. Cost = 4.00%
Fixed : Floating = 88: 12
Callable = 7%
34% 28%38%
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
FIDF 1 FIDF 3
TTM Fiscal Year
Maturity Profile
Next 5 yrs 6-10 yrs 10 yrs +
63%
32%5%
ATM = 4yrs 6mths Avg. Cost = 3.97%
Fixed : Floating = 83: 17
Callable = 15%
46%
17%37%
20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 13,000 12,000 16,000 16,000 15,000 10,000 7,000
10,000 10,000 6,534 10,000 9,000 5,000 9,000 9,000
9,000 12,000 8,000 5,000
8,000 9,000 9,000 8,691 7,246
10,080 13,982
14,110
34,42231,275
37,490
57,619
48,515
42,320
16,942
27,554
39,017
32,126
21,070
15,89717,885
3,466
15,052
10,286
18,43521,05322,425
20,119 18,525
12,473
19,540
3,7543092.7
-0.4-1.2
-2.4
1.8
3.23.9
2.9
-0.2-0.8
0.2-0.2
-6.1
3.2
-7.0
-2.2
-4.1
2.3
-15.0
-7.8
-8.9
-3.7-3.2
-2.8
-8.3
-9.6
-8.1
-11.4
-3.4
-2.3
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-100,000
-50,000
-
50,000
100,000Benchmark Bond 15 – 50yr
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
FY 2014 GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Tenor
A
B
Basis Points
B
5yr(Exclusivity)
10yr 15yr 30yr 50yr
T-1= 0
A u c t i o n R e s u l t s B e l o w T h e M a r k e t P r i c e
5.0
2.5
7.5
10.0
12.5
-10.0
-12.5
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
Million Baht Bps
ALL Benchmark Bond : Fully Allocated
30-to-50-yr Benchmark Bond : Avg.Accepted LOWER than Market Price
B
A
F u l l y A l l o c a t e d
T-1= 0
Benchmark Bond 5 – 10yr
Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs)Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
Not Fully Allocated or SubscribedAverage Accepted Yield
Million Baht
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
T-Bill Auction Result
Basis Points
T-1= 0
T-bill (Allocated Amount)R-Bill (Allocated Amount)Participated Amount (Excess Demand)Not Fully Allocated Spread [AAY-Yield(T-1)]
FY2014 Low Cost of Funding High Volume of Short-term Demand
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
36
37
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
Plan: Announced Government’s funding need at PDMO’s Annual Market Dialogues in SeptemberActual: Actual fund raising at the end of fiscal year (calculated from announced auction)
-------------- The difference between ‘’the announced’’ and ‘’the actual’’ supply of benchmark bond (% share)
Benchmark Instruments are Benchmark Bonds : Standard Loan Bond (LB) tenors 5-10-15-30-50yr (in FY 2014) + Innovative Products : Inflation-linked Bond (ILB) + Amortized Bond (LBA) Regular issuance/ Consultation with PDs/ Pre-announced auction table
Other Instruments : Saving Bond, Floating Rate Bond, Promissory Notes, Bills and Bank Loan
Unit : Million Baht
Keep our word… to get investors confidence for the plan
A
Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan
Stimulus package to ease:US financial crisis
0%
Economic Recovery
Higher-than-expected revenue collection
Lower-than-expected disbursement
of Water DecreeLower-than-expected
disbursement of Water Decree
756,xxx MB
-6%
-3%
+5%
+2%
Actual
99%
(end of Sep,14)
Delay of Infrastructure Investment Plan
38
+23,433
+80,152
-36,164
-57,427
-100,000
-75,000
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
WK
1
WK
2
WK
3
WK
4
WK
5
WK
6
WK
7
WK
8
WK
9
WK
10
WK
11
WK
12
WK
13
WK
14
WK
15
WK
16
WK
17
WK
18
WK
19
WK
20
WK
21
WK
22
WK
23
WK
24
WK
25
WK
26
WK
27
WK
28
WK
29
WK
30
WK
31
WK
32
WK
33
WK
34
WK
35
WK
36
WK
37
WK
38
WK
39
WK
40
WK
41
WK
42
WK
43
WK
44
WK
45
WK
46
WK
47
WK
48
WK
49
WK
50
WK
51
WK
52
WK
53
Ver
bal
Inte
rven
tio
n4
Me
asu
res
of
Cap
ital
Co
ntr
ol
Net Change in Non-resident Holding BOT Bond vs GOVT Bond
2014Weekly Accumulate
Tapering QE3-to-dateTotal Outflow = 83,437 Mil.
(BOT = 52,050 Mil.)(GOVT = 31,387 Mil.)
As of Jan 31 2014
THB Mil.
- 53,807THB Mil.
(30th Dec 2014)
BOT Bond
(30th Dec 2014)
+29,642THB Mil.
GOVT Bond
January 2014
As of 30th Dec ,2014
0
-22,494
+30,216 -1,598
+129,454+117,144
+196,463
+96,738
+29,642
-27,157
-2,793-7,506
+84,003
+23,052
+93,249
-100,506
-53,807
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GOVT Bond
2007-09 : Net outflow = 43,xxxMB
GOVT
BOT
THB Mil.
2010-13 : Net inflow = 650,xxxMB
0
To be Updated
BOT : Net Sell -10,394 MB. Buy +58,791 MB. Sell -69,185 MB.
GOVT : Net Sell -57,427 MB. Buy +31,053 MB. Sell -88,480 MB.
2013 YTD(27 Dec 2013)
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in BOT Bond
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in GOVT Bond
2013 : Net outflow= -3,7xxMB
GOVT Bond +29,642 THB Mil. (2014YTD)
Annual Net Capital Flows indicates strong confidence in GOVT Bonds
.
THB Mil.
As of 30th Dec, 2014
THB Mil.
BOT
GOVT
39
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Mar-51
Jun-51
Sep-51
Dec-51
Mar-52
Jun-52
Sep-52
Dec-52
Mar-53
Jun-53
Sep-53
Dec-53
Mar-54
Jun-54
Sep-54
Dec-54
Mar-55
Jun-55
Sep-55
Dec-55
Mar-56
Jun-56
Sep-56
Dec-56
Mar-57
Jun-57
Non-Resident Holding in Thai GOVT Bond is 683,215 THB Mil.
or 18.1% of Total GOVT Bond Outstanding
PeersComparison
Percentage share of Non-resident Holding in Local Government Bond (Mar 2008 - Present)
1%
(27,424 THB Mil.)
Source : AsianBondsOnline, ThaiBMA
As of Aug 30th 2013
Relatively “moderate” share of NR holding by region average
To be Updated
Total of 3.4 THB Trillion
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
Malaysia32.03%
Jun’ 14
Japan8.54%Jun’ 14
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1.5%
(27,474 THB Mil.)
Indonesia
37.3%Sep’ 14
Korea10.55%
Jun’14
Thailand18.1%
As of 30th Dec,14
Peak @ 19.1%(Apr’ 13)
As of 30th Dec, 2014
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
IssuerNon-Res ident Holding
(THB Mi l l ion)% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap.
(9,202,573 THB Million)
GOVT Bond 574,063 6.24%1.390%
BOT Bond 118,177 1.28%1.28
SOE Bond 0 0.00%0.01
Corp Bond 666 0.01%
TOTAL 692,906 7.53%
IssuerNon-Resident Holding
(THB Million)% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap.
GOVT Bond 625,483 6.74%
BOT Bond 56,980 0.61%
SOE Bond - -
Corp Bond 752 0.01%
TOTAL 683,215 7.36%
Non-Resident Holding in THB Bond = 683,215 THB Mil.
Thai Bond Market Cap. =9,287,288 THB Mil.
GOVT Bond Outstanding3,452,687 THB Mil.
BOT Bond Outstanding2,742,756 THB Mil.
Baht Bond(Foreign Issuers Bond)
Corp Bond
SOEs Bond
BOT Bond
GOVT Bond
1%
24%
9%
30%
36%
2,742,756 THB Mil.
3,452,687 THB Mil.
Non-Resident56,980 THB Mil.
Non-Resident625,483 THB Mil.
2014 Outstanding
CGIF 0.03%(For Asian Bond Market Initiative)
As of Aug 23rd 2013
Domestic Investors
81.9%
2,827,204 THB Mil.
%
% %
2,685,776 THB Mil.
97.9%
Domestic Investors
As of 30th Dec, 2014
11
Pro
-act
ive
De
bt
Ma
na
ge
me
nt
De
ve
lop
Do
me
stic
Bo
nd
Ma
rke
t to
be
a S
ust
ain
ab
le S
ou
rce
of
Fun
din
g f
or
the
Sta
bil
ity
of
Th
ail
an
d’s
Fin
an
cia
l Sy
ste
m
Fost
er
Str
on
g a
nd
E
ffe
ctiv
e
Org
an
iza
tio
n
3P
DM
O’s
Str
ate
gie
s
Sou
rce
: P
ub
lic S
ect
or
De
velo
pm
en
t G
rou
p,
PD
MO
Vis
ion
Pro
fessio
na
l in
pu
bli
c d
eb
t m
an
ag
em
en
t fo
r su
sta
ina
ble
de
ve
lop
me
nt
Valu
es
Tra
nsp
are
nc
y, D
isc
ipli
ne
, T
rustw
ort
hin
ess, D
riv
ing
So
cia
l a
nd
Ec
on
om
ic D
ev
elo
pm
en
t
Mis
sio
nF
orm
ula
te s
ou
nd
pu
bli
c d
eb
t m
an
ag
em
en
t p
oli
cie
s a
nd
str
ate
gie
s a
s w
ell
as c
on
du
ct,
mo
nit
or
an
d e
va
lua
te p
ub
lic
de
bt
ma
na
ge
me
nt
op
era
tio
ns u
nd
er
the
re
lev
an
t le
ga
l fr
am
ew
ork
an
d g
uid
eli
ne
s
36
Kritsda Udyanin Director-General, Public Debt Management Office
http://www.pdmo.go.th Tel. +66 2271 7999 , +66 2265 8050
For Further Information :
Pimpen Ladpli [email protected] Senior Expert on Bond Market Development Acting Executive Director of Bond Market Development Bureau
Nattakarn Boonsri [email protected] Director of Government Bond Market Development Division
Sophida Sritomya [email protected] Director of Financial Product Development Division
Paroche Hutachareon [email protected] Acting Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Nakarin Prompat [email protected] Acting Director of International Bond Market Policy Division