KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE
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Transcript of KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE
KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTEKOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE
Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies
in the APEC Region
Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies
in the APEC Region
• CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT
• NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES
• OBJECTIVES
• METHODOLOGY
• SCHEDULE AND BUDGET
• CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT
• NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES
• OBJECTIVES
• METHODOLOGY
• SCHEDULE AND BUDGET
CONTENTSCONTENTS
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
GLOBALIZATIONGLOBALIZATION GLOBALIZATIONGLOBALIZATION
TRADE VOLUME INCREASETRADE VOLUME INCREASETRADE VOLUME INCREASETRADE VOLUME INCREASE
Changes in Global EconomyChanges in Global Economy Changes in Global EconomyChanges in Global Economy
WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM)WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM) WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM)WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM)
ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA)ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA) ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA)ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA)
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUTCONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUTCONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
0
50
100
150
200
250(Mil. TEU)
'81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00
Scource: Containerization Int'l Yearbook
CHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENTCHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT CHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENTCHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT
CHANGE CLIENT DEMANDS
ALLIANCE, M&A
INCREASING CONCENTRATION
EMERGENCE OF BIG SHIP
CHANGE CLIENT DEMANDS
ALLIANCE, M&A
INCREASING CONCENTRATION
EMERGENCE OF BIG SHIP
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
CHANGES IN CONTAINER PORTCHANGES IN CONTAINER PORT CHANGES IN CONTAINER PORTCHANGES IN CONTAINER PORT
CARRIER DIRVEN PORT DEVELOPMENT
PRIVATIZATION
MEGA HUB PORT
INTERNATIONAL PORT OPERATOR
ENVRONMENTAL PRESSURE
CARRIER DIRVEN PORT DEVELOPMENT
PRIVATIZATION
MEGA HUB PORT
INTERNATIONAL PORT OPERATOR
ENVRONMENTAL PRESSURE
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGIONECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGION ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGIONECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGION
POPULATION: 2.5 billion (42.2% OF WORLD)
GDP: US$ 18 trillion (in 2000)
TRADE: 46.76% OF GLOBAL TRADE (in 2000)
TOP 5 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS (IN 2001)
: HK, SINGAPORE, BUSAN, KAOHSIUNG, SHANGHAI
CONT. PORT THRUPUT: 139 m TEU (in 2000)
: 61.5% of WORLD TOTAL
POPULATION: 2.5 billion (42.2% OF WORLD)
GDP: US$ 18 trillion (in 2000)
TRADE: 46.76% OF GLOBAL TRADE (in 2000)
TOP 5 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS (IN 2001)
: HK, SINGAPORE, BUSAN, KAOHSIUNG, SHANGHAI
CONT. PORT THRUPUT: 139 m TEU (in 2000)
: 61.5% of WORLD TOTAL
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT AND SHIPPING NETWORKAND SHIPPING NETWORK
NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT AND SHIPPING NETWORKAND SHIPPING NETWORK
PORT DEVELOPMENT
: HUGE AND LONG-TERM INVESTMENT
CARGO FORECATING
- DEVELOPING COUNTIRES: NO FORECATING
- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: OVER FORECATING
SHIPPING REQUIREMENT IN THE REGION
PORT DEVELOPMENT
: HUGE AND LONG-TERM INVESTMENT
CARGO FORECATING
- DEVELOPING COUNTIRES: NO FORECATING
- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: OVER FORECATING
SHIPPING REQUIREMENT IN THE REGION
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OBJECTIVES OF STUDYOBJECTIVES OF STUDY OBJECTIVES OF STUDYOBJECTIVES OF STUDY
PROVIDING MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT
FORMULATING POLICY GUIDELINES FOR REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING
ACCESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGES IN MARITITME ENVIRONMENT
PROVIDING MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT
FORMULATING POLICY GUIDELINES FOR REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING
ACCESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGES IN MARITITME ENVIRONMENT
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY
COLLECTING BASE DATA
- CIY DATA
- SURVEY TO PORT AUTHORITIES
TOOL: UPGARDED MPPM
COUTRY LEVEL SEMINARS
COLLECTING BASE DATA
- CIY DATA
- SURVEY TO PORT AUTHORITIES
TOOL: UPGARDED MPPM
COUTRY LEVEL SEMINARS
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UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM)UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM) UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM)UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM)
DEVELOPED IN 1992
3 SUB-REGION STUDIES
: ASEAN(1992), SOUTH ASIA(1993), EAST ASIA(1994)
1 INTRA REGIONAL STUDY (1997)
REGIONAL SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT STUDY (2001)
DEVELOPED IN 1992
3 SUB-REGION STUDIES
: ASEAN(1992), SOUTH ASIA(1993), EAST ASIA(1994)
1 INTRA REGIONAL STUDY (1997)
REGIONAL SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT STUDY (2001)
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
MODULES OF MPPMMODULES OF MPPM MODULES OF MPPMMODULES OF MPPM
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
TRADE MODULEFORECAST TRADE FLOW
ON COUNTY TO COUNTRY BASE
PORT ASSIGNMENTMODULE
COUNTY TO COUNTRY TRADE FLOW TO PORT TO PORT FLOW
LINER SHIPPINGNETWORK MODULE
ALLOCATE TRADE FLOW TO SHIPPING ROUTE
UPGRADE MPPMUPGRADE MPPM UPGRADE MPPMUPGRADE MPPM
ORIGINAL MPPM
- BASED ON DOS SYSTEM
- RESTRICTED NUMBER OF PORT AND T/S HUB
- DIFFICULT TO USE
UPGRADED MPPM
- WINDOW VERSION
- USER FRIENDLINESS
- POSSIBLE INLAND TRASPORTATION SYSTEM EXPANSION
KOREAN GOV’T FINANCES MODEL UPGRADE
ORIGINAL MPPM
- BASED ON DOS SYSTEM
- RESTRICTED NUMBER OF PORT AND T/S HUB
- DIFFICULT TO USE
UPGRADED MPPM
- WINDOW VERSION
- USER FRIENDLINESS
- POSSIBLE INLAND TRASPORTATION SYSTEM EXPANSION
KOREAN GOV’T FINANCES MODEL UPGRADE
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIESPOSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIESPOSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES
PORT PLANNER/GOVERNMENT
FOMULATING REALISTIC STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING PORT FACILITIES AND HUB-PORT
SHIPOWNER
SHIPPING ROUTE DECISION, SHIPPING CAPACITY INVESTMENT
SHIPPER
EFFICIENT SHIPPING NETWORK
PORT PLANNER/GOVERNMENT
FOMULATING REALISTIC STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING PORT FACILITIES AND HUB-PORT
SHIPOWNER
SHIPPING ROUTE DECISION, SHIPPING CAPACITY INVESTMENT
SHIPPER
EFFICIENT SHIPPING NETWORK
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STUDY OUTPUTSTUDY OUTPUT STUDY OUTPUTSTUDY OUTPUT
REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING PUBLICATION INCLUDING CONTAINER FLOW PROJECTIONS, INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT AND POLICY ACTION GUIDELINES
REPORT OF STUDY FINDINGS AND PROCEDINGS OF THE COUNTRY-LEVEL SEMINARS
REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING PUBLICATION INCLUDING CONTAINER FLOW PROJECTIONS, INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT AND POLICY ACTION GUIDELINES
REPORT OF STUDY FINDINGS AND PROCEDINGS OF THE COUNTRY-LEVEL SEMINARS
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
PROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULEPROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULE PROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULEPROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULE
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
STAGES2003 2004
M J J A S O N D J F M A
DATA
SURVEY
SCENARIO EVALUATION
ANALYTICAL
REPORT
COUNTY LEVEL SEMINAR
FIANL REPORT
PROJECT BUDGETPROJECT BUDGET PROJECT BUDGETPROJECT BUDGET
Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute
ITEMS APEC FUNDING SELF FINANCING
DIRECT LABOUR 30,000 30,000
TRAVEL 29,000 -
PRINTING 4,000 -
COMMUNICATIONS 2,000 -
TOTAL 65,000 30,000
(IN US$)
UN/ESCAP WILL PROVIDE THE SOURCE OF MPPM AND THE GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF KOREA WILL UPGARDE THE MPPM AT THE COST OF US$100,000 THIS YEAR.
THANK YOU VERY MUCHTHANK YOU VERY MUCH
KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTEKOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE