Knowledge, networks and nations

Knowledge, networks and nationsGlobal scientific collaboration in the 21st century

The Royal Society

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Knowledge, netw

orks and nations

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ISBN: 978-0-85403-890-9 Issued: March 2011 Report 03/11 DES2096

Founded in 1660, the Royal Society is the independent scientific academy of the UK, dedicated to promoting excellence in science

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ISBN 978-0-85403-890-9

The Royal Society

Science Policy Centre report 03/11

March 2011

Cover photo: Strain in graphene opens up a pseudomagnetic gap. Generated by the Condensed Matter Physics Group at the University of Manchester, this image is a representation of the work at Manchester lead by Professor Andre Geim FRS, a Royal Society Research Professor, and Professor Konstantin Novoselov, a Royal Society University Research Fellow. Professors Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics in 2010 for their groundbreaking experiments regarding graphene, a form of carbon, which is the thinnest and strongest material ever isolated. Both men have been cited since their award as global scientists; both were born and studied in Russia, spent time in the Netherlands, and are now based here in the UK, attracting funding and accolades from UK, European, and international sources. Paco Guinea 2010.

Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century

RS Policy document 03/11Issued: March 2011 DES2096

ISBN: 978-0-85403-890-9 The Royal Society, 2011

Requests to reproduce all or part of this document should be submitted to:The Royal Society69 Carlton House TerraceLondon SW1Y 5AGT +44 (0)20 7451 2500F +44 (0)20 7930 2170E [email protected] royalsociety.org

Knowledge, networks and nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century 3

Executive summary .................................... 5

Recommendations ...................................... 8

The Advisory Group .................................. 10

Conduct of the study .................................11

Introduction: going global ........................ 14

Part 1: Scientific landscape in 2011 ......... 151.1Trendsanddevelopmentsinglobalscience...16 1.1.1 Emergingscientificnations.........................19 1.1.2 Assessingresearchqualityandimpact.....24 1.1.3 Globalscientists...........................................26 1.1.4 Braingain,drainandcirculation.................26 1.1.5 Disciplinaryshifts?........................................28 1.1.6 Readingtheresearch...................................29 1.1.7 Openingaccess............................................301.2Applyingscience................................................31 1.2.1BusinessR&D...............................................31 Is business R&D recession proof?...............32 Location of business R&D............................32 1.2.2Patentgrowth...............................................331.3Driversofresearch.............................................34 1.3.1Securingprosperityand stayingcompetitive......................................35 1.3.2Addressingglobalchallenges.....................36 1.3.3Nationalscienceinaglobalage.................361.4Centresforscience............................................37 1.4.1Centresofresearchandinfrastructure......391.5Anewworldorder?........................................... 411.6Theworldbeyond2011.....................................42

Part 2: International collaboration ............ 452.1Patternsofcollaboration....................................46 2.1.1 Collaborationinanationalcontext.............47 2.1.2Whoiscollaboratingwithwhom?.............492.2Regionalcollaboration.......................................54 2.2.1SouthSouthcollaboration: agrowingtrend............................................542.3Whycollaborate?...............................................57 2.3.1Seekingexcellence......................................57 2.3.2Thebenefitsofjointauthorship..................59 2.3.3Capacitybuildingthroughcollaboration....61 2.3.4Thegeopoliticalpotentialof scientificcollaboration.................................622.4Underlyingnetworks.........................................62 2.4.1Tappingintotheglobalnetworks ofscience......................................................632.5Enablingcollaborationtopromote excellentscience................................................64 2.5.1Technology....................................................64 2.5.2Fundingmechanisms..................................672.6Harnessingcollaboration...................................70

Contents

DesignsofvasesandteapotsthatwouldbefoundinahouseofamerchantinCanton,fromDesigns of Chinese buildings,byWilliamChambers,1757.FromtheRoyalSocietylibraryandarchive.

4 Knowledge, networks and nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century

Part 3: Global approaches to global problems .................................... 713.1Scientificsolutions.............................................733.2Globalresearchgovernance............................. 74 3.2.1Challenge-ledresearchinitiatives...............75 3.2.2Integratingchallengesand maximisingresources..................................77 3.2.3Buildingcapacityandresilience.................783.3Casestudies.......................................................79 3.3.1Theworldslargestwarningsystem: theIntergovernmentalPanelon ClimateChange(IPCC)................................80 3.3.2Centresofexcellenceinagriculture: theConsultativeGrouponInternational AgriculturalResearch(CGIAR)....................83 3.3.3Atransformativeimpactonglobalhealth: theBillandMelindaGatesFoundation......86 3.3.4Towardssustainableenergy: theInternationalTokamak ExperimentalReactor(ITER).......................90 3.3.5CapturingtheinitiativeonCO2: theglobaleffortstodeploycarbon captureandstorage(CCS)technology......933.4Co-ordinatedeffortstotackle globalproblems..................................................97

Conclusions and recommendations: Cultivating the global scientific landscape................................. 103

Glossary of acronyms ............................. 108

Acknowledgments ...................................110

MapofChina,fromAn embassy from the East-India Company of the United Provinces to the Grand Tartar Cham,byJohnNieuhoff,1669.FromtheRoyalSocietylibraryandarchive.


Scienceisaglobalenterprise.Todaythereareover7millionresearchersaroundtheworld,drawingonacombinedinternationalR&DspendofoverUS$1000billion(a45%increasesince2002),andreadingandpublishinginaround25,000separatescientificjournalsperyear.Theseresearcherscollaboratewitheachother,motivatedbywishingtoworkwiththeverybestpeopleandfacilitiesintheworld,andbycuriosity,seekingnewknowledgetoadvancetheirfieldortotacklespecificproblems.

Knowledge, Networks and Nationsreviews,basedonavailabledata,thechangingpatternsofscience,andscientificcollaboration,inordertoprovideabasisforunderstandingsuchongoingchanges.Itaimstoidentifytheopportunitiesandbenefitsofinternationalcollaboration,toconsiderhowtheycanbestberealised,andtoinitiateadebateonhowinternationalscientificcollaborationcanbeharnessedtotackleglobalproblemsmoreeffectively.

FromSingaporetoSouthAfrica,newresearchersandresearchcommunitiesarereshapingthelandscapeforscienceandinnovation,solongdominatedbytheUSA,JapanandEurope.Thisreportexploresthischanginggeographyofscienceandinnovation.InPart1,itmapsandinvestigateswhereandhowscienceisbeingcarriedoutaroundtheworldandthewaysinwhichthispictureischanging. Science in 2011 is increasingly global,

occurringinmoreandmoreplacesthaneverbefore.Scienceisaddressingquestionsofglobalsignificance.Itissupportedbygovernments,business,philanthropistsandcharities.

Thereareparticularcountrieswherethisincreasedactivityisespeciallystriking,withinvestmentandscientificproductivityoutstrippinggeneraltrendsofgrowth.TheriseofChinahasbeenespeciallynotable,overtakingJapanandEuropeintermsofitspublicationoutputinrecentyears.BeyondChina,rapiddevelopmentshavealsotakenplaceinIndia, Brazilandnew emergent scientific nationsintheMiddleEast,South-EastAsiaandNorthAfrica,aswellasastrengtheningofthesmallerEuropeannations.

However,the traditional scientific superpowers still lead the field.TheUSA,WesternEuropeandJapanallinvestheavilyinresearchandreceiveasubstantialreturnintermsofperformance,withlargenumbersofresearcharticles,thelionsshareofcitationsonthosearticles,andsuccessfultranslation,asseenthroughtheratesofpatentregistration.

Thecontinuedstrengthofthetraditionalcentresofscientificexcellenceandtheemergenceofnewplayersandleaderspointtowardsanincreasingly multipolar scientific world,inwhichthedistributionofscientificactivityisconcentratedinanumberofwidelydispersedhubs.

Beyond these hubs, science is also flourishing.Therecognitionoftherolethatsciencecanplayindrivingeconomicdevelopment,andinaddressinglocalandglobalissuesofsustainability,hasledtoincreasedresearchactivityandtheapplicationofscientificmethodandresultswithinlessdevelopedcountries.

Executive summary


Part2revealstheshiftingpatternsofinternationalcollaboration.Internationalscienceislargelyconductedthroughbottom-up,informalconnections,asscientistsbecomemoremobileandaslargeandoftencomplexdataaresharedattheclickofabutton.Buttop-down,solutions-orientedinitiativesarealsohelpingtoshapetheresearchlandscape,asscientistsorganisethemselves,orarebeingorganised,totacklesharedconcerns. The scientific world is becoming increasingly

interconnected, with international collaboration on the rise.Todayover35%ofarticlespublishedininternationaljournalsareinternationallycollaborative,upfrom25%15yearsago.

Collaboration is growing for a variety of reasons.Developmentsincommunicationtechnologiesandcheapertravelmakeiteasierthaneverbeforeforresearcherstoworktogether;thescaleofresearchquestions,andtheequipmentrequiredtostudydemandsthatresearchersaremobileandresponsive.Collaborationenhances the qualityofscientificresearch,improves the efficiency and effectivenessofthatresearch,andisincreasingly necessary,asthescaleofbothbudgetsandresearchchallengesgrow.

However,the primary driver of most collaboration is the scientists themselves.Indevelopingtheirresearchandfindinganswers,scientistsareseekingtoworkwiththebestpeople,institutionsandequipmentwhichcomplementtheirresearch,wherevertheymaybe.

Theconnectionsofpeople,throughformalandinformalchannels,diasporacommunities,virtualglobalnetworksandprofessionalcommunitiesofsharedinterestsareimportantdriversofinternationalcollaboration.These networks span the globe. Motivated by the bottom-up exchange of scientific insight, knowledge and skills, they are changing the focus of science from the national to the global level.Yetlittleisunderstoodaboutthedynamicsofnetworkingandthemobilityofscientists,howtheseaffectglobalscienceandhowbesttoharnessthesenetworkstocatalyseinternationalcollaboration.

Collaboration brings significant benefits,bothmeasurable(suchasincreasedcitationimpactandaccesstonewmarkets),andlesseasilyquantifiableoutputs,suchasbroadeningresearchhorizons.Thefacilitationofcollaboration,therefore,hasapositiveimpactnotonlyonthescienceconducted,butonthebroaderobjectivesforanysciencesystem(bethatenhancingdomesticprosperityoraddressingspecificchallenges).


Part3ofthisreportexplorestheroleof

internationalscientificcollaborationinaddressingsomeofthemostpressingglobalchallengesofourtime.Thereportconcentratesonfivecasestudies,andconsidersthestrengthsandshortcomingsofexistingmechanismswhichbringscientificcommunitiestogethertoaddressglobalchallenges.IPCC, CGIAR, the Gates Foundation, ITER and efforts to deploy carbon capture and storage technologydemonstratehowscienceisalreadybeingusedtorespondtothesechallenges,andprovidemodelsandlessonsforhowitmightbebetterdeployedinthefuture. Theglobalscientificcommunityisincreasingly

chargedwithordrivenbytheneedtofindsolutionstoarangeofissuesthatthreatensustainability.These global challenges have received much attention in recent years, and are now a key component of national and multinational science strategies and many funding mechanisms.

Global challenges are interdependent and interrelated:climatechange,water,foodandenergysecurity,populationchange,andlossofbiodiversityareallinterconnected.Thedynamicbetweentheseissuesiscomplex,yetmanyglobalassessmentandresearchprogrammesaremanagedseparately,oftenreflectingalackofco-ordinationinthepolicysphere.Governments,civilsocietyandtheprivatesectorneedtotakeabroaderperspectiveonglobalchallengesinordertoappreciatehowtheyareinterrelated.

Globalchallengesarebeingaddressedviaanumberofdifferentorganisationalmechanisms:throughintergovernmentalorinternationalbodies,throughnationalsystems,andbyprivateindividualsandcorporations.Thesemechanismsoftendeploynovelandinnovativeformsofpartnership,someofwhichworkwell,otherslessso.Valuable lessons can be drawn from existing models in designing, participating in and benefiting from global challenge research.

Science is essential for addressing global challenges, but it cannot do so in isolation.Awiderangeofapproacheswillberequired,includingtheappropriateuseoffinancialincentives,incorporatingnon-traditionalformsofknowledge,andworkingwiththesocialsciencesandwiderdisciplines.Scienceiscrucialbutitisunlikelytoproducealltheanswersbyitself:thescienceinfrastructureworksbestwhenitissupportedby,andenables,othersystems.

All countries have a role in the global effort to tackle these challenges,bothindefiningandprioritisingthemandinusingglobalresearchoutputtoinformlocal,nationalandregionalresponses.Thisneedisincreasinglybeingacknowledgedforinclusivityandcapacitybuildingacrossregionsandcontinents,inhelpingtomeet(national)needs,andindevelopingaglobalinfrastructurethatisresilienttonewchallenges.


Knowledge, Networks and Nations concludes with a set of recommendations to further strengthen global science.Thisreportcallsformorecreative,flexibleandbetter-resourcedmechanismstoco-ordinateresearchacrossinternationalnetworksandtoensurethatscientistsandsciencecanfulfiltheirpotential.Italsocallsformorecomprehensiveandinclusivewaysofmeasuringandevaluatingthesciencewhichisdeliveredandappliedinallitsformsaroundtheworld.Finally,thereporthighlightstheimportanceofscienceandthewiderevidencebaseinunderpinningrobustpolicymaking,especiallyaroundsharedglobalchallenges.

Understandingglobalsciencesystems,theirmechanismsandmotivations,isessentialifwearetoharnesstheverybestsciencetoaddressglobalchallengesandtosecurethefutureofourspeciesandourplanet.

Recommendations1. Support for international science should be

maintained and strengthened Evenindifficulteconomictimes,national

governments need to maintain investment in their science basetosecureeconomicprosperity,tapintonewsourcesofinnovationandgrowth,andsustainvitalconnectionsacrosstheglobalresearchlandscape.Sustainedinvestmentbuildsanationscapacitytoassimilateexcellentscience,whereveritmayhavebeenconducted,forthatcountrysbenefit.

International activities and collaboration should be embedded in national science and innovation strategiessothatthedomesticsciencebaseisbestplacedtobenefitfromtheintellectualandfinancialleverageofinternationalpartnerships.

Commitments to multinational research efforts and infrastructures should not be seen as easy targets for cuts during a period of economic turbulence.Tocutsubscriptionstojointresearchendeavours,withoutduediligenceandassessment,isafalseeconomy.Bydisengagingfromtheseefforts,countriesruntheriskofisolatingtheirnationalscienceandlosingrelevance,qualityandimpact.

2. Internationally collaborative science should be encouraged, supported and facilitated

Research funders should provide greater support for international research collaborationthroughresearchandmobilitygrants,andothermechanismsthatsupportresearchnetworks.

National border agencies should minimise barriers to the flow of talented people,ensuringthatmigrationandvisaregulationsarenottoobureaucratic,anddonotimpedeaccessforresearcherstothebestscienceandresearchacrosstheworld.

National research policies should be flexible and adaptiveinordertoensurethatinternationalcollaborationbetweentalentedscientistsisnotstifledbybureaucracy.

3. National and international strategies for science are required to address global challenges

Recognisingtheinterconnectednessofglobalchallenges,funders of global challenge programmes should devise ways to better co-ordinate their efforts, share good practice, minimise duplication and maximise impact.Wherepossible,theseshoulddrawonexistinginfrastructureorsharedtechnology.


National research funding should be

adaptive and responsive to global challenges,supportingtheinterdisciplinaryandcollaborativenatureofthesciencerequiredtoaddresstheseissues.

In devising responses to global challenges, governments worldwide need to rely on robust evidence-based policy making,andbringexcellentscientistsintothepolicyadvisoryprocess.

4. International capacity building is crucial to ensure that the impacts of scientific research are shared globally

Researchers and funders should commit to building scientific capacity in less developed countriestohelpimprovetheirabilitytoconduct,access,verifyandusethebestscience,andtoensurethattheycancontributetoglobalscientificdebatesanddeveloplocalsolutionstoglobalproblems.

Scientific capacity building must involve financial support for authors in developing countries to publish in open access journals.Openaccesspublishinghasmadeawealthofscientificliteratureavailabletothedevelopingworld,butconverselyhasmadeitharderfortheirscientiststopublishundertheauthorpaysmodel.

National academies, learned societies and other similar institutions should actively promote public and wider stakeholder dialogue to help identify, shape and respond to global challenges and their local manifestations.

5. Better indicators are required in order to properly evaluate global science

UNESCO (and other agencies such as the OECD) should investigate new ways in which trends in global science can be captured, quantified and benchmarked,inordertohelpimprovetheaccuracyofassessmentsofthequality,useandwiderimpactofscience,aswellastogaugethevitalityoftheresearchenvironment.

There is a specific lack of data on the flow and migration of talented scientists and their diaspora networks.UNESCO,OECDandothersshouldinvestigatewaysofcapturingthisinformationasapriority,whichwouldenablepolicymakerstobetterunderstand,nurtureandoverseeglobalscienceforthebenefitofsocietyasawhole.

InstructivememoireonthenewchronologicaltableofthehistoryofChina,bytheViceroyofCanton,1724.FromtheRoyalSocietylibraryandarchive.


Advisory GroupProfessorSirChrisLlewellynSmithFRS(Chair),DirectorofEnergyResearch,UniversityofOxfordProfessorSirLeszekBorysiewiczKBEFRS,ViceChancellor,UniversityofCambridgeProfessorLornaCasseltonFRS,ForeignSecretaryandVicePresident,TheRoyalSocietyProfessorSirGordonConwayKCMGDLFRSFRGS,ProfessorofInternationalDevelopment,ImperialCollegeLondonProfessorMohamedHassan,Co-Chair,InterAcademyPanel(IAP);ExecutiveDirectoroftheAcademyofSciencesfortheDevelopingWorld(TWAS)(untilMarch2011)ProfessorMelissaLeach,Director,STEPSCentre,InstituteofDevelopmentStudies,UniversityofSussexProfessorAngelaMcLeanFRS,AllSoulsSeniorResearchFellow,DepartmentofZoology,UniversityofOxfordProfessorGoverdhanMehtaFRS,CSIRBhatnagarFellowandHonoraryProfessor,DepartmentofOrganicChemistry,IndianInstituteofScienceProfessorJohnMitchellOBEFRS,DirectorofClimateScience,MetOfficeDrColinOsborne,RoyalSocietyUniversityResearchFellow,DepartmentofAnimalandPlantSciences,UniversityofSheffieldProfessorMartynPoliakoffCBEFRS,ResearchProfessorinChemistry,TheUniversityofNottinghamDrPhilRufflesCBEFREngFRS,FormerDirector,EngineeringandTechnology,RollsRoyceplcProfessorCarolineWagner,SchoolofInternationalAffairs,PennsylvaniaStateUniversity

Royal Society Science Policy CentreLukeClarke,PolicyAdviserLauraDawson,SeniorPolicyAdviserNatalieDay,SeniorPolicyAdviserDrTraceyElliott,HeadofInternationalHarrietHarden-Davies,InternTonyMcBride,HeadofStrategyJamesMeadway,SeniorPolicyAdviserSarahMee,PolicyAdviserIanThornton,PolicyAdviserDrJamesWilsdon,DirectorofSciencePolicyRapelaZaman,SeniorPolicyAdviser

Review PanelTheRoyalSocietygratefullyacknowledgesthecontributionofthereviewers.TheReviewPanelwasnotaskedtoendorsetheconclusionsorrecommendationsofthereport,nordidtheyseethefinaldraftofthereportbeforeitsrelease.

ProfessorJohnPethicaFRS(Chair),PhysicalSecretary,RoyalSocietyProfessorBruceAlbertsForMemRS,DepartmentofBiochemistryandBiophysics,UniversityofCaliforniaSanFranciscoProfessorJuanAsenjo,President,ChileanAcademyofSciencesDrMatthewFreemanFRS,Head,DivisionofCellBiology,MRCLaboratoryofMolecularBiologyProfessorSirBrianHeapCBEFRS,FormerDirector,InstituteofAnimalPhysiologyandGeneticsResearchProfessorGeoffreyOldhamCBE,HonoraryProfessor,SPRUScienceandTechnologyPolicyResearch,UniversityofSussex

The Advisory Group


ThestudyleadingtothisreportwasoverseenbyanAdvisoryGroupofFellowsoftheRoyalSocietyandotherdistinguishedexperts,supportedbythestaffoftheRoyalSocietySciencePolicyCentre.Elsevierhasprovidedfinancialsupport,andfullaccesstotheirpublicationdatabasesandanalyticalservicesthroughoutthestudy.Thedraftingofthereport,itsconclusionsandrecommendationsarethoseoftheRoyalSocietyalone.

Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st centuryhasbeenapprovedbytheCounciloftheRoyalSociety.

Advisory Group and terms of referenceTheRoyalSocietyestablishedanAdvisoryGroupmadeupofinternationallyrenownedscientistsandsciencepolicyexpertsfromaroundtheworld,chairedbySirChrisLlewellynSmithFRS.Theaimofthestudy,asoutlinedintheTermsofReference,wastoprovideananalysisoftheglobalscientificlandscapein2011foraglobalaudienceofscientists,governments,business,internationalorganisationsandNGOs.Itsspecificgoalswereto: Provideanoverviewofhow,where,whyand

bywhomscientificresearchisbeingcarriedoutacrosstheworld,andthewaysinwhichthispictureischanging.

CompilebothquantitativeandqualitativeevidencetoofferanoverviewofthesedevelopmentsthroughtheuseofElseviersandotherdatabasessuchasUNESCOandOECD,andbymakinguseoftheSocietysextensiveinternationalnetworks,includingitsglobalFellowshipofover1,400outstandingindividualsfromallareasofscience,mathematicsandengineering.

Identifyandassessillustrativeexamplesofopportunitiesandchallengesthesechangespresentforpolicymakers,scientists,intergovernmentalagenciesandbusiness.

Examineanddiscusshowinternationalscientificcollaborationcanbebetterutilisedtoaddressglobalproblemssuchasclimatechange,foodandwatersecurity,andinfectiousdiseases.

Drawconclusionsaboutthecollaborativenatureofresearchinthe21stcentury,andconsiderthepotentialimplicationsforpolicymakers.

ThestudywasformallylaunchedinJanuary2010.

Collection of evidenceEvidencegatheringfortheprojecttookplaceinfiveways: aformalprocess,throughadetailedCallfor

Evidence; aspecialdiscussionsessionformembersofthe

InterAcademyPanel,heldtocoincidewithitsGeneralAssemblyattheRoyalSocietyinJanuary2010;

face-to-faceandtelephoneinterviewswithkeyfiguresininternationalscienceandsciencepolicyfromaroundtheworld;

extensivedeskresearch; dataanalysis,includingworkwithElsevier.

Conduct of the study


Call for evidenceTheCallforEvidencewassentouton27April2010toFellowsoftheRoyalSociety,RoyalSocietyResearchFellowsandtheworldsscienceacademies,throughtheInterAcademyPanel(IAP),theAcademyofSciencesfortheDevelopingWorld(TWAS),andtheUKGovernmentsScienceandInnovationNetwork(SIN).

Wereceived80responsesfromindividuals,academies,researchinstitutions,governmentdepartmentsandotherorganisationsfromaroundtheworld.Thesearelistedattheendofthereport.

Elsevier methodologyUnlessotherwiseindicated,allofthedatarelatingtopublicationoutputandimpactinthisreporthavebeenprovidedbyElsevier.Wewouldliketoacknowledgetheanalysisandinsightsprovidedbythefollowingindividuals: DrAndrewPlume,AssociateDirector,

Scientometrics&MarketAnalysisResearch&AcademicRelations

MayurAmin,SeniorVicePresidentResearch&AcademicRelations

DrHenkMoed,SeniorScientificAdvisorAcademic&GovernmentMarkets

NielsWeertman,VicePresident,SciValAcademic&GovernmentMarketsPublicationdataarederivedfromScopus,the

worldslargestabstractandcitationdatabaseofpeer-reviewedliterature.Scopuscontainsover41millionrecordsacross18,000journalsandcoversregionalaswellasinternationalliterature.Publicationoutputsinthisreportaredefinedasarticles,reviewsandconferencepaperspublishedinthesejournals.Whereweconsideroveralltotalsofpublications,theseincludeoutputsinalldisciplines.

Defining global scienceTheRoyalSocietydefinesscienceasnaturalknowledge.Inpractice,thisincludesthenaturalsciences,mathematicsandengineering.Forthepurposesofthisreport,wherewediscussoveralltotalsofpublications,theseincludesocialsciences,theartsandhumanities(inpractice,theserepresentaverysmallproportionofpublicationoutput8.9%);thiscoverageisusedtomatchtheinputstatistics,whichallregisterresearchandresearchers,whicharedisciplineneutral.However,ourexamples,casestudiesandobservationsaredrawnfromthescientificcommunity.

Throughoutthisreport,weuseanumberofsourcestocharacteriseandquantifywhatishappeninggloballyinscience.Inthisweareconstrained,tocertainextents,bytheavailabledata.Inordertoachievethewidestinternationalcoverage,wehavemadeuseofUNESCOdataonthenumbersofresearchers,1andtheexpenditureonresearchanddevelopmentasindicatorsofexpenditureandmanpowerinscience(althoughalargeproportionofresearchanddevelopmentisspentonDratherthanRand,assuch,reachesbeyondstrictsciencespending).


ThesestatisticsareavailablethroughtheUNESCO

InstituteofStatistics,andhavebeencomprehensivelypresentedandanalysedintherecentUNESCOScienceReport,publishedinNovember2010.

Publicationandpatentdataareincompleteproxiesforscientificoutputandscientifictranslation,thefirstbeingpredominantlytheoutputofacademicscience,andtheotherrelatingtotheexploitationofideasandconceptsratherthannecessarilybeingspecificallyscientific.However,theyarethetwomainquantifiable,globallycollated,andcommonlyusedsourcesofdataontheproductionandconsumptionofscience.Byusingthesedata,wearereflectingthecurrenttermsofreferencefordiscussionsofglobalscience.Itiswidelyacceptedthattheyareinadequatetofullyexploretherichnessof21stcenturyscience.Thepaucityofrichersourcesofdataoffersachallengetonational,multilateralandglobalbodiestoexplorewaysofbettermeasuringtheinputs,outputsandimpactsoftheglobalscientificlandscape.

1 TheOECDdefinesresearchersasprofessionalsengagedintheconceptionorcreationofnewknowledge,products,processes,methodsandsystemsandalsointhemanagementoftheprojectsconcerned.SeeOECD(2002).Frascati manual: proposed standard practice for surveys on research and experimental development.OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment:Paris,France.

PagefromanotebookonscientificexpeditionstoMatoGrosso,Brazil,1967to1969,byIainBishop.FromtheRoyalSocietylibraryandarchive.


Introduction: going globalWhenHenryOldenbergfoundedtheworldsfirstscientificpublicationin1665,2itdrewonemergingideasfromGermany,Italy,Hungary,FranceandeventheBermudas.Itenjoyedawideinternationalreadership.Oldenburg,andtheotherfoundingfellowsoftheRoyalSociety,dedicatedthisfirsteditionofPhilosophicalTransactionstosharingtheHappyinventionsofobligingMenallovertheworld,totheGeneralBenefitofMankind.

ButOldenbergcouldneverhaveimaginedhowmanyobligingmenandwomenwouldbecontributingtoscientificknowledgeacrosstheworldin2011.Sciencehastransformedourlivesinwayswhichwouldhavebeeninconceivablein1665.Justhowitwillevolveoverthecomingcenturyisequallyinconceivable.Yetonethingseemscertain:scienceisinherentlyinternationalandwillonlybecomemoreso.

AsLouisPasteuronceputit,Knowledgebelongstohumanity,andthusscienceknowsnocountryandisthetorchthatilluminatestheworld.Largelyfundedatanationallevelandconductedprimarilyinnationalinstitutions,scienceisstillmoredeterminedbyplacethanPasteursdeclarationwouldsuggest.Andyet,itisaworldwideendeavour.In2008,218countriesproducedover1.5millionresearchpapers,fromTuvalusonepaper,totheUKs98,000,Chinas163,000,andtheUSAs320,000.3In2007,Swedenspentnearly3.7%ofitsgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)onresearchanddevelopment(R&D),Canadaspent2%,emergingIndiaspent0.8%,andoilrichSaudiArabia0.04%.4Researchinvestmentandoutputarefarfromevenlyspreadacrosstheworld,

buttherearefewplaceswhicharenotinsomewaypartofthescientificlandscape.

Scienceisconductedinmoreplacesthaneverbefore,butitisalsomoreinterlinked.Overone-thirdofresearchpapersarethedirectresultofinternationalcollaboration,withauthorsaddressesfrommorethanonecountry.5Thenumberofinternationallyco-authoredpapershasmorethandoubledsince1990.6Researchersareincreasinglymobile,travellinglongdistancestoworkwiththebestcolleaguesintheirfield,toaccessresourcesandshareideasandfacilities.Andtheyarebeingsupportedinternationallythroughcross-borderfundingfrominternationalorganisations(charities,philanthropicfundingandbusiness),multilateralinitiativesbetweengovernmentsandresearchcouncils,multinationalfundingbodiesandsharedscientificinfrastructure.

Thescientificcommunityisinfluencedbyglobalisation,andisalsodrivenbyitsowndynamics.Scientistshavebeenbothmotivatedandenabledtoworkacrossdisciplinaryandinternationalbordersbytechnologicaladvancesandshiftsingeopolitics.Butsciencehasalwayspushedboundaries,betheytechnologicalornationalandpolitical.Globalscienceisincreasing,butitisalsonothingnew.ThefoundingmembersoftheRoyalSociety350yearsagolookedbeyondnationalborderstoextendthefrontiersofnaturalknowledge.Todaysscientificpioneerswillneedtoknowhowtonavigatethechangingglobalscientificlandscapeiftheyaretokeepextendingthosefrontiers.Thisreportisintendedtohelpthemunderstandthedynamicsofthiscomplexandfast-evolvingphenomenon.

2 On6March1665,thefirstissueofPhilosophicalTransactionswaspublishedundertheeditorshipofHenryOldenburg,whowasalsotheSecretaryoftheSociety.

3 DatafromElseviersScopus.

4 DatafromtheUNESCOInstituteforStatisticsDataCentre,Montral,Canada.


6 LeydesdorffL&WagnerC(2005).Mapping global science using international co-authorships: a comparison of 1990 and 2000.InternationalJournalofTechnologyandGlobalization3.Foradiscussionofhowinternational

collaborationhasgrownoverallandattheregionallevel,seeWagnerC&LeydesdorffL(2005).Network structure, self-organization and the growth of international collaboration in science.ResearchPolicy34,10,16081618.


AnewmanifestationofthecelebratedMollowtriplet,oneofthefundamentalspectralshapesoflight-matterinteraction,fromDrElenadelValle,RoyalSocietyNewtonInternationalFellow,SchoolofPhysicsandAstronomy,UniversityofSouthampton.ThetripletasfoundbyMollowemergesinthelightemittedbyanatomwhenexcitedbyalaser.Thedepictedtripletisthecounterpartemissionfromanatomwhenexcitedincoherentlyinsideacavity.DrElenadelValle,2010.

PART 1

Scientific landscape in 2011


PART1

Scientificlandscapein2011

Scienceisgrowingglobally.Sincethebeginningofthe21stcentury,theglobalspendonresearchanddevelopmenthasnearlydoubled,publicationshavegrownbyathird,andthenumberofresearcherscontinuestorise(seeTable1.1).NorthAmerica,Japan,EuropeandAustralasiahaveallwitnessedgrowth,witheachincreasingspendingbyaroundone-thirdbetween2002and2007.Inthesameperiod,developingcountries,7includingtheemergingeconomiesofChina,IndiaandBrazil,morethandoubledtheirexpenditureonR&D,increasingtheircontributiontoworldR&Dspendingby7percentagepointsfrom17%to24%.8

Table1.1.Global science by numbers.9 Spend on research

and developmentNumbers of researchers

Number of publications

US$ %GDP

2007 1145.7bn 1.7 7.1m 1.58m

2002 790.3bn 1.7 5.7m 1.09m

Thearchitectureofworldscienceisalsochanging,withtheexpansionofglobalnetworks.Theseinvolvenetworksofindividuals,mostlyself-organisedbutsometimesorchestrated(asintheHumanGenomeProject).Somenetworksarebasedoncollaborationsatinternationalorganisations(suchasCERN);othersarefundedinternationally,bymultinationalbusinesses(whichfundtheirownlaboratoriesandworkinuniversitiesacrosstheglobe),bymajorfoundations(suchasGates),orbycross-nationalstructuressuchastheEU.Theseglobalnetworksincreasinglyexertasignificantinfluenceontheconductofscienceacrosstheworld.

1.1 Trends and developments in global science TheUSAleadstheworldinresearch,producing20%oftheworldsauthorshipofresearchpapers,10dominatingworlduniversityleaguetables,11andinvestingnearlyUS$400billionperyearinpublicandprivateresearchanddevelopment.12TheUK,Japan,GermanyandFranceeachalsocommandstrongpositionsinthegloballeaguetables,producinghighqualitypublicationsandattractingresearcherstotheirworldclassuniversitiesandresearchinstitutes.Thesefivecountriesaloneareresponsiblefor59%ofallspendingonscienceglobally.13

However,thesecountriesdonotcompletelydominateglobalscience.Between1996and2008theUSAlostone-fifthofitsshareoftheworldsarticleauthorship,Japanlost22%andRussia24%.TheUK,GermanyandFrancealsofellbackinrelativeterms.14Figure1.1showshowthenumberofarticleshasgrownandhowtheirdistributionacrosstheworldhaschangedinrecentyears,betweentheperiods1999to2003(Figure1.1a)and2004to2008(Figure1.1b).

Thetraditionalscientificleadershavegraduallylosttheirshareofpublishedarticles.Meanwhile,Chinahasincreaseditspublicationstotheextentthatitisnowthesecondhighestproducerofresearchoutputintheworld.IndiahasreplacedtheRussianFederationinthetopten,climbingfrom13thin1996totenthbetween2004and2008.FurtherdownthelistSouthKorea,Brazil,Turkey,SouthEastAsiannationssuchasSingapore,Thailand,andMalaysia,andEuropeannationssuchasAustria,GreeceandPortugalhaveallimprovedtheirstandingsintheglobalscientificleaguetables.15


Key

United StatesJapanUnited KingdomGermanyFranceChinaItalyCanadaRussian FederationIndiaSpainOther

26%

8%

7%

7%5%4%4%

3%3%3%

30%

21%

6%

7%

6%4%

10%

4%3%

3%2%

34%

Fig a Fig b

Changesintherankingofnationswithintheleaguetablesareshiftingatthesametimeastotaloutputisincreasing.Forexample,Italymaintainedasteadyshareofpublicationsbetween1996and2008(3.5%ofworldproductioninbothyears,fluctuatingbetween3%and4%overthewholeperiod);butinordertoholdthispositionitincreaseditsnumberofarticlesby32%.Allovertheworld,somecountriesarerunningtostandstill16whileothersarebreakingintoasprint.

Figure1.1. Proportion of global publication authorship by country17 The top ten producing countries in each period are shown. Fig a. 1999-2003. Fig b. 2004-2008

Key

United StatesJapanUnited KingdomGermanyFranceChinaItalyCanadaRussian FederationIndiaSpainOther

26%

8%

7%

7%5%4%4%

3%3%3%

30%

21%

6%

7%

6%4%

10%

4%3%

3%2%

34%

Fig a Fig b

7 BasedonthestandardUnitedNationsStatisticsDivisionclassification(compositionofmacrogeographical(continental)regions,geographicalsub-regions,andselectedeconomicandothergroupings).

8 UNESCO(2010).UNESCO science report 2010.DatafromUNESCOInstituteforStatistics,publishedinUNESCOScienceReport2010(p2,Table1).UNESCOPublishing:Paris,France.DataareprovidedinUS$peggedatcurrentprices(2007pricesin2007,2002pricesin2002)andreflectpurchasingpowerparity.

9 Spendonresearchanddevelopment:datafromUNESCOInstituteforStatistics,publishedinUNESCOScienceReport2010(p2,Table1).Numberofresearchers:datafromUNESCOInstituteforStatisticsDataCentre,UNESCOInstituteforStatistics:Montral,Canada.Numberofpublications:datafromElseviersScopus.

10 DatafromElseviersScopus.Ifanauthoronapapergivesacountryashisorheraddress,thatpaperisassignedtothatcountry.SoapaperwhichhasbeenwrittenbyauthorsintheUK,SpainandGermanywouldbeassignedasasinglepaperineachcountry(thatpaperthereforebeingaccountedforthreetimesasanationalpaper).Figure1.1showsthetotalnumberofindividualpaperswithoutanymultiplecounting.Thetotalnumberofnationalpapers(ie.withpaperscountedmultipletimesifthereareauthorsbasedinmorethanonecountry)in2007was1,580,501;in2002thiswas1,093,564.TheUSAproduced316,317nationalpapersin2008(221,707withtheUSAasthesoleauthors,and94,610incollaborationinternationally);thisrepresents19.97%ofallnationalpapersglobally.

11 TheQSrankingshavesixUSuniversitiesinthetop10

(CambridgeintheUKisrankedfirst,andtheotherthreearealsointheUK).IntheTimesHigherEducationWorldUniversityRankingstheUSAholdsthetopfivepositions,sevenofthetop10placesand27ofthetop50(theremainingthreeinthetoptenareintheUK).IntheARWURankingsthefourtoppositionsand17ofthetop20areUSuniversities(theremainingthreeinthetop20aretheUniversitiesofCambridge,OxfordandTokyo).Source:AcademicRankingofWorldUniversities(2010)availableonlineathttp://www.arwu.org/ARWU2010.jsp;QSTopUniversityRankings(2010)athttp://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/home;TimesHigherEducationWorldUniversityRankings(2010)athttp://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/index.html,accessed29September2010.

12 NationalScienceBoard(2010).Science and engineering indicators 2010.NationalScienceFoundation:Arlington,VA,USA.

13 DatafromUNESCOInstituteforStatistics,publishedinUNESCOScienceReport2010(p2,Table1).



16 RoyalSociety(2010).The scientific century: securing our future prosperity.RoyalSociety:London,UK.

17 DatafromElseviersScopus.Thesechartsshowthetop10countriesbynumberofpublications,withallothercountriesincludedintheothersegment.Thepiechartsarescaledtorepresenttheincreasedvolumeofpublicationsinthetwotimeperiods.In19992003therewere5,493,483publicationsglobally,andin20042008therewere7,330,334.

PART1



Box1.1.A note on the dataExpenditureonresearchanddevelopment(R&D)isusedthroughoutthisreportasaproxyforspendingonscience.Grossexpenditureonresearchanddevelopment(GERD),ascollatedbytheOECDandUNESCO,andusedinthisreport,includesinvestmentbygovernmentandbusinessenterprise,fundingfromoverseassources,andothersources,whichcanincludefundingbyprivatefoundationsandcharities.Inareasofthereportwedistinguishbetweentheproportionofthisgrossexpenditurespentbybusinessenterprise(BERD),andthatspentbygovernment(GOVERD).Thisisacommonlyused,yetlargelyunsatisfactoryproxyforscience(and/orresearch)spending.AlargeproportionofresearchanddevelopmentisspentonDratherthanR(withthelargestproportionspentonproductdevelopment).Assuch,thisfiguregoesbeyondtheactualamountofmoneydedicatedtofundingresearch,

inwhicheversector,butitisassumedthatthishassomerelationshiptotheupstreaminvestmentinsciencethatprecedesit.

Unlessotherwisestated,wherechangesinexpenditureovertimearediscussedinthereport,thefiguresusedarebasedoncurrentUS$prices(2004dollarsin2004,2008dollarsin2008)andpurchasingpowerparity,18ascalculatedbyeithertheOECDorUNESCO.

Whenwerefertopapersinthereport,thisreferstopeer-reviewedarticleswhichhaveappearedininternationaljournals.Thesedatahavebeendrawn,unlessotherwisenoted,fromElseviersScopusdatabase.19Wherewediscussoveralltotalsofpublications,theseincludesocialsciences,theartsandhumanities(inpractice,theserepresentaverysmallproportionofpublicationoutput8.9%);thiscoverageisusedsoastomatchtheinputstatistics,whichallregisterresearchandresearchers,whicharedisciplineneutral.

Article:CroonianLecture:Ontheanatomicalstuctureoftheeye,byEverardHome,drawingsbyFranzBauer.PTvol112,1822,pp76-85.FromtheRoyalSocietylibraryandarchive.


1.1.1EmergingscientificnationsChinasriseuptherankingshasbeenespeciallystriking.ChinahasheavilyincreaseditsinvestmentinR&D,withspendinggrowingby20%peryearsince1999toreachoverUS$100billionayeartoday(or1.44%ofGDPin2007),20inpursuitofitsgoalofspending2.5%ofGDPonR&Din2020.21Chinaisalsoturningouthugenumbersofscienceandengineeringgraduates,with1.5millionleavingitsuniversitiesin2006.22

China,India,SouthKoreaandBrazilareoftencitedasrisingpowersinscience.23Indiaproducesroughly2.5millionscienceandengineeringgraduateseachyear.24In2008,India,theworldssecondmost

populouscountry,succeededinsendingitsfirstunmannedflighttothemoon,becomingonlythefourthcountrytolandacraftonthelunarsurface.Brazil,inlinewithitsaspirationtobeanaturalknowledgeeconomy,buildingonitsnaturalandenvironmentalresources,isworkingtoincreaseresearchspendingto2.5%ofGDPby202225(fromjustover1.4%in2007).26SouthKoreahaspledgedthatR&Dspending,(3.2%ofGDPin2007),willreach5%ofGDPby2012.27

Thesecountriesarenotaloneinrapidlygrowingtheirsciencebases.Overthelast15years,eachoftheG20countrieshasbeenincreasingitsresearchproductionandmosthavescaleduptheproportion

18 Purchasingpowerparity(PPP)measurestheamountofagivencurrencyneededtobuythesamebasketofgoodsandservicesasoneunitofthereferencecurrencyinthisreport,theUSdollar.Itishelpfulwhencomparinglivingstandardsindifferentcountries,asitindicatestheappropriateexchangeratetousewhenexpressingincomesandpricesindifferentcountriesinacommoncurrency.

19 ForfurtherinformationonthemethodologyusedbyElsevier,pleaseseetheConductoftheStudyonpage11.

20 OECD(2006).China will become worlds second highest investor in R&D by end of 2006, finds OECD.Pressrelease,4December2006.OfficeforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment:Paris,France.

21 TheStateCouncilofthePeoplesRepublicofChina(2006).The national medium- and long-term program for science and technology development (20062020): an outline.Beijing,China.

22 MinistryofScienceandTechnologyofthePeoplesRepublicofChina(2007).S&T statistics data book 2007.Beijing,China.Thisistheequivalentof

0.66%oftheChinesepopulationagedbetween15and24,whichwasprojectedtobe228,663,000in2010accordingtotheUnitedNationsPopulationDivision.UNESCOstatisticsindicatethatthemostrecentfiguresoftotalscience,engineering,manufacturingandconstructiongraduates,expressedasapercentageoftheirprojectedpopulationof1524-year-oldsfor2010(aspertheUNstatisticsabove),wouldequal0.95%intheUSA(428,256graduatesinthesedisciplinesin2008againstaprojectedpopulationaged1524of44,880,000in2010),and1.73%intheUK(140,575graduatesinthesedisciplinesin2007againstaprojectedpopulationof8,147,000in2010).Thesearenotperfectcomparisons,asthemostrecentyearforwhichwehavegraduatedataavailablevariesbycountry,anditdoesnottakeintoaccountgraduatesabovethisagerange,ortheproportionofpeopleinthelowerendofthisagerangewhoareunlikelytograduateattheirage.Sources:PopulationDivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsoftheUnitedNationsSecretariat(2008).World population prospects: the 2008 revision.Availableonlineathttp://esa.un.org/unpp,accessed7

January2011;UNESCOInstituteforStatisticswebsite:http://www.uis.unesco.org/,accessed13January2011.

23 SeeBoundK(2007).India: the uneven innovator;WebbM(2007).South Korea: mass innovation comes of age;WilsdonJ&KeeleyJ.China: the next science superpower?;BoundK(2008).Brazil, the natural knowledge economy.Demos:London,UK;AdamsJ&WilsdonJ(2006).The new geography of science: UK research and international collaboration; AdamsJ&KingC(2009).Global research report: Brazil;AdamsJ,KingC&SinghV(2009).Global research report: India;AdamsJ,KingC&MaN(2009).Global research report: China.Evidence,aThomsonReutersbusiness:Leeds,UK.Battelle(2009).2010 global R&D fund-ing forecast.Battelle:Columbus,OH,USA.WilsdonJ(2008).The new geography of science.PhysicsWorld,October2008.GilmanD(2010).The new geography of global innovation.GoldmanSachsGlobalMarketsInstitute:NewYork,NY,USA.

24 BoundK(2007).India: the uneven innovator.Demos:London,UK.Indiaspopulationagedbetween

15and24wasprojectedtobejustunder234millionaccordingtotheUN.Ifallthose2.5milliongraduateswerewithinthatagerange,theywouldrepresent1.07%ofthepopulationinthatagerange.Source:UnitedNationswebsite.World population prospects: the 2008 revision.PopulationDivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsoftheUnitedNationsSecretariat.Availableonlineathttp://esa.un.org/unpp,accessed7January2011.

25 KuglerH(2011).Brazil releases science blueprint.SciDev.Net,7January2011.Availableonlineathttp://www.scidev.net/en/news/brazil-releases-science-blueprint.html,accessed17January2011.

26 PetherickA(2010).Science safe in Brazil elections.Natureonline,29September2010.Availableonlineathttp://www.nature.com/news/2010/100929/full/467511b.html,accessed17January2011.

27 StoneR(2008).South Korea aims to boost status as science and technology powerhouse. ScienceInsider,23December2008.Availableathttp://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2008/12/south-korea-aim.html.


PART1


Argen

tina

Australia

Brazil

China

India

Indonesia

Mexico

Rep

ublic of Korea

Sau

di A

rabia

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ada

Fran

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y

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Kingdom

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States

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-2%

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-4%

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India

Indonesia

Mexico

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Korea, Rep

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South Africa

Turkey

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Kingdom

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Figure1.2. Science in the G20G8 labelled in red. Fig a. Annual growth in publications 1996-2008.28 Fig b. Annual growth in GDP spending on R&D 1996-200729

Fig a Fig b


oftheirGDPspentonR&D(seeFigure1.2).Increasedinvestmentandincreasedpublicationshavetakenplaceintandem.Thegrowthofcommitmenttoscienceinanumberofthenon-G8nationsisespeciallystriking.

TurkeyhasimproveditsscientificperformanceataratealmostrivallingthatofChina.Havingdeclaredresearchapublicpriorityinthe1990s,theTurkishGovernmentincreaseditsspendingonR&Dnearlysix-foldbetween1995and2007,andnowspendsmoreannuallyincashtermsthaneitherDenmark,FinlandorNorway.30Overthisperiod,theproportionofTurkeysGDPspentonR&Drosefrom0.28%to0.72%,andthenumberofresearchersincreasedby43%.31Fourtimesasmanypaperswerepublishedin2008asin1996.32

ThenumberofpublicationsfromIranhasgrownfromjust736in1996to13,238in2008makingitthefastestgrowingcountryintermsofnumbersofscientificpublicationsintheworld.33InAugust2009,Iranannouncedacomprehensiveplanforsciencefocusedonhighereducationandstrongerlinksbetweenindustryandacademia.TheestablishmentofaUS$2.5millioncentrefornanotechnologyresearchisoneoftheproductsofthisplan.OthercommitmentsincludeboostingR&Dinvestmentto

4%ofGDP(0.59%ofGDPin2006),andincreasingeducationto7%ofGDPby2030(5.49%ofGDPin2007).34

Since1996,R&DasapercentageofGDPinTunisiahasgrownfrom0.03%to1.25%in2009.35Duringthesameperiod,asubstantialrestructuringofthenationalR&Dsystemsawthecreationof624researchunitsand139researchlaboratories,ofwhich72aredirectedtowardslifeandbiotechnologicalsciences.36Lifesciencesandpharmaceuticalsremainatoppriorityforthecountry,withthegovernmentannouncinginJanuary2010thatitwantedtoincreasepharmaceuticalsexportsfive-foldinthenextfiveyearswhilealsoaimingtohave60%oflocalmedicineneedscoveredbythecountrysownproduction.37

In1996,Singaporeinvested1.37%ofGDPinR&D.By2007thishadreached2.61%ofGDP.38Thenumberofscientificpublicationshasgrownfrom2,620in1996to8,506in2008,almosthalfofwhichwereco-authoredinternationally.39TheAgencyforScience,TechnologyandResearch(A*STAR)iscentraltothegovernmentscommitmenttoinvestmentinworldclassresearchandinfrastructure,andoverseesSingapores14researchinstitutesandassociatedcentreswithinflagshipdevelopmentssuchasBiopolisandFusionopolis.40AtacostofoverUS$370million,


29 DatafromUNESCOInstituteforStatisticsDataCentre,Montral,Canada.Notethatstatisticsforsomecountriesacrosstheperiodareincomplete.Theclosestaccountableyearsintheperiodareusedwherecompletestatisticsarenotavailable.

30 OECD(2010).Main science and technology indicators (MSTI): 2010 edition, version 1.OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment:Paris,France.

31 OECD(2009).Main science and technology indicators (MSTI): 2009

edition.OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment:Paris,France.


33 Science-Metrix,Thirty years of science.Montreal:http://www.Science-Metrix.com,accessedNovember2010.

34 SawahelW(2009).Iran: 20-year plan for knowledge-based economy.UniversityWorldNews.

35 MadikizelaM(2005).The science and technology system of the Republic of Tunisia.FromCountryStudies:ArabStates,UNESCO

website.Availableonlineathttp://portal.unesco.org/education/en/files/55545/11998913265Tunisia.pdf/Tunisia.pdf.

36 MadikizelaM(2005).The science and technology system of the Republic of Tunisia.FromCountryStudies:ArabStates,UNESCOwebsite.Availableonlineathttp://portal.unesco.org/education/en/files/55545/11998913265Tunisia.pdf/Tunisia.pdf.

37 GlobalArabNetwork(2010).Tunisia to boost pharmaceutical & biotechnological industry. GlobalArabNetwork,13January2010.

Availableonlineathttp://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/201001134357/Science-Health/tunisia-to-boost-pharmaceutical-a-biotechnological-industry.html.

38 DatafromtheUNESCOInstituteforStatisticsDataCentre.Montral,Canada.


40 Seehttp://www.a-star.edu.sg/AboutASTAR/Overview/tabid/140/Default.aspx,accessed29September2010.


PART1


Biopolisisahigh-techbiomedicalparkwhichthegovernmentlaunchedin2003.Sincethen,thecountrysbiotechexpertisehascontinuedtoexpandandisattractingsomebigplayerssuchasNovartis,GlaxoSmithKlineandRoche.41

ThepictureofscientificresearchisalsostartingtochangeacrosstheMiddleEast,wherethereareanumberofsignificantnewcommitmentstoscience.Gas-richQataraimstospend2.8%ofGDPonresearchby2015.Withapopulationofjustover1.4million(ofwhicharound85%areforeignworkers)andacurrentGDPofUS$128billion,thistarget,ifrealised,wouldcombinetogiveGERDpercapitaofUS$2,474.42Sincethemid-1990s,theQatariGovernmenthasintroducedanumberofeducationreformsandhasinvestedaroundUS$133billionininfrastructureandprojectsdesignedtocreateaknowledge-basedeconomy.43TheUnited Arab EmiratesisattemptingtocreatetheworldsfirstfullysustainablecityandinnovationhubtheMasdarInitiative.Duetoopenin2011,Masdarwilleventually

house50,000peopleand1,500businessesfocusedonrenewableenergyandsustainabletechnologies.44GE,BP,Shell,MitsubishiandRolls-Royceareamongthosewhohavejoinedasstrategicpartners.45

Elsewhere,manyoftheworldspoorestcountrieshaveplacedsciencebehindmoreimmediatepriorities,suchashealthcareandprimaryeducation.Thisisnottosaythatscienceandresearcharenothavinganimpactinthelessdevelopedworldatall,orthattherearenosignsofgrowth.Cambodiaproducedonlysevenarticlesin1996,butincreasedthisto114by2008.BothUgandaandPeru,inthesameperiod,increasedtheiroutputsfour-fold,albeitfromlowbases(Ugandafrom116to477papers,Perufrom153to600).46Inthesecountries,aselsewhere,thereisoftenalsoawealthofinformalinnovationcarriedoutbyfarmers,47localhealthpractitionersandsmallfirmsfrequentlydrawingonlocalknowledgeandlargelyunacknowledgedinformalmetrics,letalonepublishedinresearchpapers.48

TheKingofTonkinandretinueontheirwaytoaceremonialblessingoftheground.AnillustrationforSamuelBaronsA description of the kingdom of Tonqueen,1685.FromtheRoyalSocietylibraryandarchive.


Box1.2. Measuring global science through publicationsTraditionally,globalscientificoutputhasbeenmeasuredthroughtheanalysisofpublishedpapersinpeer-reviewedjournals.Peerreviewmeansthatthesciencethatispublishedhasbeensubjectedtoindependentscrutinyandapprovedbyqualifiedscientists,andtherebyassuresitsqualityandcredibility.Thevolumeofscientificliteratureinpeer-reviewedjournalsisvast.Individualarticlesareabstractedandcollectedontodatabaseswhicharethensearchablebytheirusers,usuallythroughsubscription.ThemostcomprehensiveoftheseservicesareScopus(maintainedbyElsevier)andWebofScience(maintainedbyThomsonReuters).Theseservicesprovideaccesstoinformationabouttitles,authors,abstracts,keywordsandreferencesforthousandsofjournalarticleseachyear.Thesedataareusedtoassessthequalityofresearchand,throughitsuseasmeasuredbycitations,itsimpact.

Thereare,however,notablegapsinthecoverageofthebibliometricdatabases.Insomecasesthismaymeanthattheofficialpublicationfiguresunder-representthetrueextentofscientificactivity.Forexample,therearemanypeer-reviewedjournalswhichdonotappearin

theindexingservices.Regional,nationalandlocaljournalsinthenon-English-speakingpartsoftheworldareoftennotrecognisedand,asaconsequence,journals,conferencesandscientificpapersfromsomecountriesarenotwellrepresentedbyabstractingservices.

Muchscientificliteratureisalsoproducedfornon-peer-reviewedpublications(andhencenotcoveredbyScopusorWebofScience).Oftenreferredtoasgreyliterature,thiscaninclude:technicalreportsfromgovernmentagenciesandNGOs;workingpapersfromresearchgroupsorcommittees;governmentwhitepapers;conferenceproceedingsandsymposia;andagrowinglevelofpublicationoninternetsites.Allofthesearepotentiallyvaluablecontributionstotheglobalstockofknowledge,buttheyarenotaccountedforintraditionalassessmentsofresearchoutput.

Initsanalysesofglobalsciencethroughbibliometricdata,thisreportdrawsexclusivelyonthesepeer-reviewedsourcesofresearch,andspecificallyonElsevierdata.Itisclearthatbibliometricdataalonedonotfullycapturethedynamicsofthechangingscientificlandscape.However,theypresentlyoffertheonlyrecognisedandmostrobustmethodologyfordoingso.

41 SingaporeEconomicDevelopmentBoard(2010).Pharmaceutical and biotech companies partner Singapore to accelerate innovation in Asia.Pressrelease,4May2010.SingaporeEconomicDevelopmentBoard:Singapore.

42 Authorscalculations.Qatarspopulationis1,448,446andithasaGDPofUS$128billion.Source:USStateDepartmentwebsite.

Seehttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5437.htm,accessed8February2011.2.8%of128billionis3,584million,whichwhendividedbythepopulationgivesusafigureof2,474.38.

43 Source:QatarFoundationwebsite.Seehttp://www.qstp.org.qa/output/page559.asp,accessed30September2010.

44 Source:Masdar(2008).Seehttp://www.masdar.ae/en/mediaCenter/newsDesc.aspx?News_ID=40&MenuID=0,accessed29September2010.Masdar(theAbuDhabiFutureEnergyCompany):AbuDhabi,UnitedArabEmirates.

45 EnglandA(2007).Abu Dhabi eyes renewable energy future.FinancialTimes,4April2007.


47 ScoonesI&ThompsonJ(2009).Farmer first revisited: innovation for agricultural research and development.InstituteofDevelopmentStudiesattheUniversityofSussex:Brighton,UK.

48 STEPSCentre(2010)Innovation, sustainability, development: a new manifesto.STEPSCentre:Brighton,UK.


PART1


Somegovernmentsanddevelopmentpartnersareembracingthefactthatscienceisnotaluxurywhichisthepreserveofdevelopedcountries.Theyrecognisethattechnologyandinnovationarekeytoachievinglong-termeconomicandsocialdevelopment,49andthatscienceandscientificadvicearevitalassetsingovernance.50PaulKagame,PresidentofRwanda,hasbeenastrongadvocateforsciencefordevelopment,sayingWeinAfricamusteitherbegintobuildourscientificandtechnologicaltrainingcapabilitiesorremainanimpoverishedappendagetotheglobaleconomy.51AfricanscienceministersresolvedinMarch2010that2011wouldbethestartofanAfricandecadeforscience,promisingincreasedresearchbudgetsandattemptstousescienceandtechnologytodrivedevelopment.52Althoughencouraging,politicalcommitmentstoinvestinsciencearegreetedcautiouslybymanyscientistsacrossAfricaandinotherpoorcountries.Itwasin1980thatAfricanpresidentsagreedtoincreaseresearchspendingto1%ofGDP,aspartoftheLagosPlanofAction,53butby2007Sub-SaharanAfricancountriesstillspentanaverageofjust0.5%oftheirGDPonscienceandtechnology.54Africanleadersreiteratedtheir1%target,thistimeagreeingtoreachitby2010,55butSouthAfricaistheonlysub-Saharancountrythatisclose,spending0.92%inthe2008to2009financialyear.56

1.1.2AssessingresearchqualityandimpactAsresearchoutputhasgrown,sohavethelevelsatwhichresearchersciteoneanotherswork.Citationsareoftenusedasameansofevaluatingthequalityofpublicationsrecognitionbyanauthorspeersindicatesthatthescientificcommunityvaluestheworkthathasbeenpublished.Theyare,however,alaggingindicator,aswellasasometimescrudeone.

Lookingattheglobalpictureinrecentyears,wecanseethatcitationsareincreasingatagreaterrate

thanpublicationsbetweentheperiods1999to2003and2004to2008publicationsgrewby33%andcitationsby55%(seeFigure1.3).57However,whenexaminingcitationpatterns,themovementinnationalperformancehasnotbeenasdramaticaswithpublicationnumbers.SwitzerlandandAustraliafelldowntherankings,tobereplacedbyChinaandSpaininthelatterperiod,buttheperformanceofChina,forexample,doesnotmirrorthatnationsgrowthininvestmentorpublicationoutput.Citationscontinuetobemuchmoreconcentratedthanthejournalarticlesthemselves.

Itwilltakesometimefortheabsoluteoutputofemergingnationstochallengetherateatwhichthisresearchisreferencedbytheinternationalscientificcommunity.Thereisalsodiversificationwithsomecountriesshowingleadershipinspecificfields,suchasChinainnanotechnology,58andBrazilinbiofuels,59butthescientificallyadvancednationscontinuetodominatethecitationcounts.

Citationsare,however,onlyonemeansofbenchmarkingtheexcellenceofresearchoutput.WithoverUS$1,000billioneachyearbeingspentonR&D,itisunsurprisingthatfundersandgovernmentswanttoknowwhatvaluetheyaregettingfortheirmoney.

IntheUK,theimpactandexcellenceagendahasdevelopedrapidlyinrecentyears.TheResearchAssessmentExercise,apeerreviewbasedbenchmarkingexercisewhichmeasuredtherelativeresearchstrengthsofuniversitydepartments,60isduetobereplacedwithanewResearchExcellenceFramework,whichwillbecompletedin2014.61TheUKResearchCouncilsnow(somewhatcontroversially)askallapplicantstodescribethepotentialeconomicandsocietalimpactsoftheirresearch.TheExcellenceinResearchforAustralia(ERA)initiativeassessesresearchqualitywithinAustraliashighereducationinstitutionsusinga


combinationofindicatorsandexpertreviewbycommitteescomprisingexperienced,internationallyrecognisedexperts.

Theimpactagendaisincreasinglyimportantfornationalandinternationalscience(inEurope,theCommissionerforResearch,InnovationandSciencehasspokenabouttheneedforaEurope-wideinnovationindicator).63Thechallengeofmeasuringthevalueofscienceinanumberofwaysfacesallofthescientificcommunity.Achievingthiswilloffernewinsightsintohowweappraisethequalityofscience,andtheimpactsofitsglobalisation.

ChinaSpainOther

Key

United States

Japan

United KingdomGermany

France

Australia

ItalyCanada

Netherlands

Switzerland

36%

9%8%7%

5%4%3%3%2%

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Fig a Fig b

Figure1.3. Comparative proportion of global citations by country62The top ten cited countries in each period are shown. Fig a. 1999-2003. Fig b. 2004-2008

49 ConwayG&WaageJ(2010).Science and innovation for development.UKCollaborativeonDevelopmentSciences:London,UK.

50 RoyalSociety(2010).Science: an undervalued asset in governance for development.RoyalSociety:London,UK.

51 KagameP(2006).SpeechbyRwandanPresident,PaulKagame,attheRoyalSocietyon18September2006.

52 NordlingL(2010).African nations vow to support science.Nature465,994995.

53 OrganizationofAfricanUnity(1980).Lagos plan of action for the economic development of Africa

19802000.TheOrganizationofAfricanUnitywasdisbandedin2002andreplacedbytheAfricanUnion.

54 DatafromUNESCOInstituteforStatistics,publishedinUNESCOScienceReport2010(p2,Table1).

55 AfricanUnion(2007).Assembly of the African Union, eighth ordinary session, 2930 January 2007, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: decisions and declarations.Assembly/AU/Dec.161(VIII).AfricanUnion:AddisAbaba,Ethiopia.

56 DepartmentofScienceandTechnology,South Africa (2010). South Africa maintains steady growth in R and D expenditure.Pressrelease,9September2010.DepartmentofScienceand

Technology:CapeTown,SouthAfrica.


58 RoyalSociety(2010).The scientific century: securing our future prosperity.RoyalSociety:London,UK.

59 BoundK(2008).Brazil, the natural knowledge economy.Demos:London,UK.

60 Seehttp://www.delni.gov.uk/index/further-and-higher-education/higher-education/role-structure-he-division/he-research-policy/research-assessment-exercise.htm.

61 Seehttp://www.hefce.ac.uk/research/ref/,accessed7January2011.

62 DatafromElseviersScopus.Thesechartsshowthetoptencountriesbynumberofcitations,withallothercountriesincludedintheothersegment.Thepiechartsarescaledtorepresenttheincreasedvolumeofpublicationsinthetwotimeperiods.In19992003therewere23,639,885citationsglobally,andin20042008therewere36,562,135.

63 FinneganG(2010).Geoghegan-Quinn: we must communicate our R&D.Euractiv.com(EuropeanUnionInformationWebsite),5May2010.Availableonlineathttp://www.euractiv.com/en/innovation/geoghegan-quinn-we-must-communicate-our-rd-interview-493702.


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1.1.3GlobalscientistsRecentdecadeshaveseensignificantincreasesintheglobalcompetitionfortalent,withtheworkforceinplaceslikeSiliconValleyhighlightingtherolethatskilledmigrantscanplayininnovationandwealthcreation.CountriesliketheUK,Australia,CanadaandtheUSAhavegrappledwithcontentiouspolicydecisions,aimingtostriketherightbalancebetweenencouragingthehighlyskilledontheonehand,anddiscouragingunskilledpotentialmigrantsontheother.

Withinaccuratedataandinconsistentdefinitionsofhighlyskilledacrosstheworld,itisdifficulttomeasurehighlyskilledmigration,particularlyamongscientists.Thereisnointernationallyagreeddefinitionofhighlyskilledworkers,althoughtheOECDsCanberraManualprovidesoneusefulbasisforthemeasurementofhumanresourcesinscienceandtechnology(HRST).TheirdefinitionincludesthosewhohavecompletededucationatthethirdlevelinaS&Tfieldofstudyand/orthosenotformallyqualifiedbutemployedinaS&Toccupationwheresuchqualificationswouldnormallyberequired.64AccordingtoOECDanalysistheUSA,Canada,AustraliaandtheUKattractedthelargestnumbersofhighlyskilledexpatriatesfromOECDcountriesin2001,followedbyFranceandGermany.65OftheUKs4.5millionforeign-bornadultpopulation,34.8%hadauniversity-leveleducation.Approximately19.5%ofthesemigrantshadascientificbackground,manyofwhomhailedfromemergingeconomiessuchasChinaandIndia.66However,wearefarfromunderstandingwhatfactorsinfluencetheseindividualschoiceoflocation.Howlongdotheyintendtostay?Andhowdotheyconnectbacktotheirresearchnetworksfromtheirnewhome?

ThecareerpathsofrecentNobelprizewinnersdemonstratetheinternationaloutlookofmanyoftheworldsmostsuccessfulscientists.Professor

AndreGeimFRS,alongwithKonstantinNovoselov,wasawardedtheNobelprizeforPhysicsin2010.ProfessorGeimobtainedhisPhDattheRussianAcademyofSciencesinChernogolovka,movedtotheUKforpostdoctoralpositionsatNottinghamandBath,beforethenmovingontoCopenhagenandNijmegen,andreturningtotheUKin2001totheUniversityofManchester.NowaRoyalSocietyResearchProfessor,ProfessorGeimmaintainslinkswithcolleaguesinRussia,andisstillaprofessorintheNetherlands.The2009winnerforPhysics,SirCharlesKaoFRS,wasborninChina.HeobtainedhisPhDfromtheUniversityofLondon,workedattheStandardTelecommunicationsLaboratoryintheUK,andinboththeUSAandGermany.AdaYonath(thefirstwomanfromIsraeltowinaNobelPrize,andcurrentlybasedattheWeitzmannInstituteinRehovot)heldpostdoctoralpositionsintheUSAandworkedinGermanybeforeshewonthe2009Chemistryprize.Herco-winnerVenkatramanRamakrishnanFRSwasborninTamilNadu,India,undertookgraduatedegreesintheUSA,andnowworksinCambridge,England.

1.1.4Braingain,drainandcirculationTheNobelPrizeexamplesshowtheattractiveforceofthestrongscientificnations,inparticulartheUSAandWesternEurope.Todayissuesofbraindrainareusuallyassociatedwithdevelopingcountries,buttheoriginalphrasewascoinedbytheRoyalSocietyin1963.Atthetime,theUKwasstrugglingtostemtheexodusofitstopbrainstotheUSA.TheSocietyfounditselfatthecentreofafiercedebateastohowtocounterthisphenomenon,67withthethenMinisterofScience,LordHailsham,lamentingtheparasitisingofBritishbrains.68

Today,thefocusofdiscussionhasmovedfrompreventingbraindraintomakingthemostofbraincirculation.Ithasbeenarguedthatoldpatternsof


one-wayflowsoftechnologyandcapitalfromthecoretotheperipheryareslowlybreakingdown,creatingfarmorecomplexanddecentralisedtwo-wayflowsofskills,capitalandtechnology,withscientistsfollowingthebestscienceandthebestresources.69Somegovernmentsappreciatethevalueofbraincirculationandallocateresourcesforattractingnationaltalentbackhometostartanewbusinessortakeupaseniorpositioninacademia,whilemaintainingusefullinksbacktotheUSAorEurope.

Ofthe1.06millionChinesewhostudiedabroadbetween1978and2006,over70%didnotreturn.70IthasbeenapolicypriorityfortheChineseGovernmenttoattractthisdiasporaback.TheThousandTalentsProgram,establishedin2008,hasbroughtmorethan600overseasChineseandforeignacademicsbacktoChina.LaunchingfurthermeasuresinMay2010,PremierWenJiabaoannouncedthat,Wewillincreasespendingontalentprojectsandlaunchaseriesofinitiativestooffertalent-favourablepoliciesinhouseholds,medicalcareandtheeducationofchildren.71Arangeoffacilities,bothpersonalandprofessional,isessentialtoensurethatreturninghomeisanattractiveoption.

India,meanwhile,hascreatedaspecificgovernmentministrytheMinistryofOverseas

Indianstoorganisepolicyrelatingtoremittancesandinvestmentflows,aswellasrelaxingpreviouslystringentcitizenshiprequirementstomakeiteasierforpotentialreturnees.OtherinitiativestoconnectIndiawithitsdiasporahavealsoprovenfruitful.TheIndusEntrepreneurs(TiE),forexample,wasoriginallyfoundedbyIndianentrepreneursbasedinSiliconValleyanditnowhasaglobalmembershipof12,000peoplewithin11countries,andhasassistedinthecreationofbusinessesworthoverUS$200billioninIndia.72

Elsewhere,MalaysiarecentlyestablishedanewTalentCorporationwhichwillbechargedwithconnectingwithdiasporacommunities.EcuadorsPresidentalsoannouncedaUS$1.7millionPrometheusOldWisemanplantoattractseniorscientistswhoseeEcuadorastheretirementdestinationofbrilliantminds.73

Yetattractingbackthediasporaisonlyonepartoftheequation.Findingnewwaystoconnectwithdiasporaandothercommunities,andtheirassociatedglobalnetworks,isalsocritical.Nomadicscientistsareoftenkeentomaintainscientificandinformallinkswiththeirhomecountries.Manyareeagertocontributebutareunsurewheretostart.Insupportinginternationalcollaboration,thesediasporacommunitiesareanuntappedresource.

64 OECD(1995).The measurement of scientific and technological activities: manual on the measurement of human resources devoted to S&T: Canberra manual.OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment:Paris,France.

65 OECD(2002).The global competition for talent: mobility of the highly skilled.OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment:Paris,France.

66 OECD(2008).A profile of immigrant populations in the 21st century: data from OECD countries.OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment:Paris,France.

67 RoyalSociety(1963).The emigration of scientists.TheRoyalSociety:London,UK.

68 BalmerB,GodwinM&GregoryJ(2009).The Royal Society and the brain drain: natural scientists meet

social science. Notes&RecordsoftheRoyalSociety63,4,339353.

69 SaxenianA(2006).The new Argonauts: regional advantage in a global economy.HarvardUniversityPress:Cambridge,MA,USA.

70 Source:http://www.gov.cn(ChineseGovernmentsofficialwebportal).Seehttp://www.gov.cn/english/2010-06/07/content_1622015.htm,accessed13October2010.

71 ChenJ(2010).Nation aims to increase talent pool.ChinaDaily,6June2010.

72 BoundK(2007).India: the uneven innovator.Demos:London,UK.

73 HirschfeldD(2010).Ecuador opens its doors to senior scientists.SciDev.Net,16August2010.Availableonlineathttp://www.scidev.net/en/news/ecuador-opens-its-doors-to-senior-scientists.html.


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Inreality,braindrainisstillamajorproblem.AtarecenteventattheRoyalSociety,PrincessSumayaofJordanreflectedonthesuccessofJordaniangraduatesintheregionandthewiderworld.Humancapitalisourgreatestnaturalresource,shesaid,yetithasbeenexportedformanyyears.ItissaidthattheFrenchkeepthebestchampagneforthemselves.Perhapsweshouldlearnfromthem.Dependingonthelevelofscientificcapacityathome,migratingscientistsfromdevelopingcountriesaregenerallymorelikelytostaypermanentlyintheirnewhomesthanreturntowheretherearefeweropportunitiesandpoorerinfrastructure.ThisisasignificantproblemforAfrica,acontinentwhicharguablyneedsitsskilledworkersmost,butofferstheleasttokeepthemorattractthemback.Thechallengeforgovernmentsinemergingcentresofscienceishowtorewardtalentedscientistsandenablethemtofosterglobalnetworks,whilestillusingthemtobuildnationalcapacity.

1.1.5Disciplinaryshifts?Withthegrowthinscienceglobally,itisinterestingtoaskwhetherthelargeriseinthenumberofscientificpublicationsinrecentdecadeshasvariedgreatlyacrossthedisciplines.Indeed,theuseofbibliometricdataacrossthewholeofresearchcanmaskverydifferentpatternsinpublicationactivityacrossdisciplineswith,forexample,lifescientistsdisplayingagreaterpropensitytopublishthanengineers.

Availableheadlinedatasuggestthattherehasnotbeenadramaticshiftinthebroaddisciplinarybreakdownofresearch.Between1996and2008thetotalnumberofacademicpublicationsroseby43%;lookingatthenumberofarticlesinspecificdisciplines(asdefinedbythedisciplinaryfocusofthejournal),74theoverallsharebysubjectareahasnotaltereddramaticallyoverthesameperiod.Energy

andcomputerscienceshaveseenthehighestgrowth,bothincreasingtheiroutputbyover100%,buttheshareofpapersinenergypublicationsamongscientificoutputhasgrownfromonly0.73%tojust1.03%;incomputersciencesthissharehasgrownfrom2.47%to3.42%.Thissubstantialgrowthinabsoluteoutputhasnottranslatedintodramaticleapsinmarketshare.

Lookingmorecloselyatthedatawecan,however,seesometrendsinparticularfieldswhichreflectemergingorpressingresearchareas.KeywordsearchesintheElsevierdatabaseonspecifictermshighlightsometrends.Climatechange,forexample,hasseenasix-foldincreaseinusageinresearchpublicationsbetween1996and2008.Suchanalysescanonlybepartialtheypickuponbuzzwordswhichreflecttrendsinlanguageasmuch,perhaps,astheydoscientificcontent.Thattheseareasaregrowingrapidly,though,isundeniable.

Thegeographicchangesinglobalsciencedonotthemselvesappeartohavehadadirectimpactonthetypesofresearchbeingconducted.Thedomesticconditionsofacountry,suchasgovernmentprioritiesandtheavailabilityofnatural,humanandeconomicresourceshaveadistinctbearingonscientificoutput.Consideringagainthedisciplinaryspreadofresearchasidentifiedthroughjournalclassification,thedevelopedG7countrieshavesimilarresearchprofiles,whicharebalancedbetweenbroadresearchdisciplines,Bycontrast,theBRICgroupingofmajoremergingeconomiesBrazil,Russia,IndiaandChinaareweightedtowardsspecificfields;inthecaseofChina,IndiaandRussiatowardsengineering,andinBrazil,agricultureandbiosciences.InAfrica,thefocusisonagricultureandmedicine.However,theemergenceoftheseareashasnottodatechangedtheglobalbalanceofresearch.

Researchchallengesandinterestsarechanging


asglobalsciencegrows,butthesechangesreflectmorethedifferenttypesofquestionsbeingposed,ratherthanthenationalityofthepeopleposingthequestions.

1.1.6ReadingtheresearchTheworldsresearchpapersareproducedtobereadbypeersinthescientificcommunity,andfortheideasandconclusionstobeputtouse.Sowherethescienceisbeingpickedupandexploitedisjustasimportantaswhereintheworlditisbeingwrittenup.Thespreadofaccesstoacademicjournalsacrosstheworldisakeyfactorintheglobalisationofresearch.

Publishershaveactivelypursuednewreadermarkets.NaturelauncheditsChinawebsitein2007,highlightingresearchfromtheChinesemainlandandHongKong.NatureIndiafollowedinFebruary2008.TheRoyalSocietynowhasspecificportalsforthoseinterestedinresearchfromBrazil,China,India,Malaysia,RussiaandTurkey,andprovidesinformationonthewebsiteinChinese,Farsi,Korean,Russian,Portuguese,ArabicandSpanish.75

ThepatternofdownloadsfromElseviersjournalsshowthat,unsurprisingly,thelargestconsumersoftheirpublicationsarebasedintheUSA,JapanandWesternEurope.ChinaandSouthKoreahavewitnessedasurgeinreadershipoverthe

lastdecade.76TheRoyalSocietysownjournalsfollowasimilartrend.IntheyearfromJune2009toJune2010,USandUKaudiencesaccountedfornearly51%ofthereadershipfortheSocietyssevenjournals.Chinanowaccountsforthethirdhighestnumberofdownloadsandsubscriberstothejournals;thefourBRICcountriesmakeup12%ofthetotalreadership.77

Readershiphasbeenfarfromuniversal.AWorldHealthOrganisation(WHO)studyin2000identifiedthat56%ofinstitutionsincountrieswithannualincomesofUS$1,000andlessperpersonhadnocurrentsubscriptionstointernationaljournals,therebycuttingofftheirscientistsfromrecentdevelopmentsintheirfields.78

AnumberofinitiativessuchasResearch4Life(R4L)79setupindirectresponsetothesefindingsandtheInternationalNetworkfortheAvailabilityofResearchPublicationsProgrammefortheEnhancementofResearchInformation(INASPPERii)80havebeenestablishedtoexplicitlyimproveaccesstoresearchjournalsinthedevelopingworld,allowingfreeorlow-costaccesstouniversitiesandresearchinstituteswhichhadpreviouslybeenunabletoaffordsubscriptionfees.Take-upofR4Lhasbeenimpressive.Bringingtogetherthreestrandsoneforbiomedicalandhealthliterature,asecondfor

74 Thiswillresultinduplicationacrossfields,asajournalsuchastheRoyal Society Philosophical TransactionsAwillcovereachofthemathematical,physicalandengineeringsciences.Therewillalsobefluctuationbetweenyears,asjournalsubjectareasareredefined.This,therefore,providesanimperfectindicationofthedisciplinarybreadthofpublicationoutput,butitdoesindicatethegeneralrateofoutput.AsimilaroutcomecanbeseenintheUNESCO Science Report 2010,whichusesdatafromanother

indexingserviceThomsonReuters(Scientific)Inc.WebofScience.UNESCO(2010).UNESCO Science Report 2010(pp1011).UNESCOPublishing:Paris,France.

75 Seehttp://royalsocietypublishing.org/librarians,accessed29September2010.

76 DatafromtheElsevierScienceDirectdatabase.

77 DatafromRoyalSocietypublications,July2009June2010.

78 UKNationalCommissionforUNESCO(2008).Improving access to scientific information for developing countries: UK learned societies and journal access programmes.UKNationalCommissionforUNESCOSecretariat:London,UK.

79 Research4LifeisapublicprivatepartnershipoftheWHO,FAO,UNEP,CornellandYaleUniversitiesandtheInternationalAssociationofScientific,Technical&MedicalPublishers.Workingtogetherwithtechnologypartner

Microsoft,thepartnershipsgoalistohelpattainsixoftheUNseightMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsby2015,reducingthescientificknowledgegapbetweenindustrialisedcountriesandthedevelopingworld.Seehttp://www.research4life.org/,accessed30September2010.

80 Seehttp://www.inasp.info/file/5f65fc9017860338882881402dc594e4/perii.html,accessed29September2010.


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agriculturalpublications,andathirdforenvironmentalsciencestheplatformallowsaccesstomaterialofparticularpracticalinteresttodevelopingnations.Sinceitsintroductionin2002,thebiomedicalandhealthplatformHINARIalonehasprovided2milliondownloadsperyearofElseviersoutput.Individualpublishersarealsoinstigatingtheirowninitiatives.TheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesintheUSAhasbeenfreeonlinesince1997tothedevelopingworld.In2006theUKsRoyalSocietyofChemistry(RSC)madeallofitsjournaloutputfreethroughitsArchivesforAfricaproject.

ProfessorShemO.Wadinga,DirectoroftheCentreforScienceTechnologyInnovationsinNairobi,andChairofthePanAfricaChemistryNetworkKenyahub,isakeenadvocateoftheRSCsscheme.Archives for AfricahasopenedupararewindowforAfricanresearchersandlibrariesinkeepinguptodatewiththelatestscientificinformation.IthasbecomethepointoffreeaccesstoawealthofscientificinformationforAfricanscientiststhroughtheirlibraries.81Itwilltakesomeyearstoidentifyanydirect,long-termimpactthattheseschemesmayhaveonscientificoutput.AnearlystudysuggeststhattherehasbeenasignificantincreaseinresearchoutputincountrieseligibleforR4Laccess,whichoutstripstherateofgrowthseeninnon-R4Lcountries,overtheperiodinwhichtheinitiativehasbeenintroduced.82

1.1.7OpeningaccessInthemid-1990s,theadventoftheonlineavailabilityofscientificjournalshadtwohighlysignificanteffectsonthescholarlycommunicationsprocess.Thefirstwasaresultofthedramaticfallinthecostsofdisseminationofpublishedcontent(whichnolongerreliedsolelyonphysicalshippingofprintedcopies).Thisledtothegrowthoftheso-calledbigdealwherebypublisherswereabletoofferonlineeditions

oftheirentirecataloguetoinstitutionallibrariesthatpreviouslyhadonlysubscribedtospecificjournals.Thesedealsweredoneatgreatlyreducedpricesandmostlargeinstitutionsnowhavesucharrangementsinplace,meaningthatreadershaveaccesstovastlymoreresearchoutputsthaneverbefore.Thesecondwastheenormousincreaseinthecapacitytosearchforandaccesspublishedresearch,initiallyviaspecialistsearchenginessuchasPubMed,andlaterbymoregeneraltools,mostnotablyGoogle(whichnowaccountsforalmost60%ofallreferrals).83Theabilitytosearchforarticlessimplyandrapidlyusingsubjectkeywords,authorsorabstracttexthasopenedupmuchwideraccesstotheentirebreadthofresearchoutputs.

AlsohighlysignificanthasbeenthebirthoftheOpenAccessmovement.Recognisingthatagreatdealofpublishedresearchwasfundedbythepublicpurse(viaresearchcouncilsanduniversities),demandsarosefromvariousquartersfortheresultingpublicationstobemadefreelyavailabletothepublicwhofundedthem,ratherthanbeinglimitedtosubscribers.Publishers,someinitiallyresistanttothisnotion,havenowlargelyembracedopenaccess,notleastbecausemostfundingbodiesnowmakeitarequirementfortheirgrantees.Theoverwhelmingmajorityofthetraditionalpublishersnowoperateanopenaccessoption(inexchangeforanarticleprocessingchargesecuredfromauthorsortheirinstitutions)andanumberofnewerpublishershaveemergedwhooperateanexclusivelyopenaccessmodel.

Thedemandforaccesstopublishedscientificknowledgeissettogrowasglobalsciencecontinuestoexpand.TheauthorpaysmodelofOpenAccessandthesubsidisedsubscriptionschemesofResearch4LifeandINASPcaterforthisdemandindifferentways.Thelatterhaveconsiderablyimprovedaccesstoresearchliteratureinthedevelopingworld,


butthereisnotyetacorrespondingschemeinplacetoassistauthorswithopenaccesschargesintheseverycountries.However,thedemandformoreaccessisnotonlycomingfromthedevelopingworld.Avarietyofeconomicmodelswillberequiredtoensurethataccessismaximisedacrossarangeofdifferentmarkets.

1.2 Applying scienceAwealthofeconomicliteraturedescribestheimpactofknowledgeoneconomicperformance.84Forexample,studieshaveshownthattechnologicalchangedrivesupincomelevels,85therelationshipbetweenhighlevelsofpatentingandGDPgrowth,86andthepositiveimpactofinnovationonbusinessproductivityandperformance.87Thisbodyofevidencehasunderpinnedtheeffortsofgovernmentstheworldovertostimulateeconomicperformancebyinvestinginscienceandtechnologyfromundirectedacademicsciencetoresearchofstrategicnationalimportanceconductedingovernmentlaboratories,tosupportfornear-to-markettechnologiesintheprivatesector.

1.2.1BusinessR&DScienceisnotrestrictedtoacademia,nordoesitnecessarilyresultinthepublicationofresearchpapers.Ittakesplaceinmanydifferentareasoutsideuniversitiesandresearchinstitutes,andisfundedbyarangeofdifferentsources.Theproportionofinvestmentinresearchascomparedtodevelopmentvariessignificantlyacrossthedifferentindustrialsectors.Forexample,intheUKstelecommunicationssector,companiesinvestroughlyfourandahalftimesmoremoneyinexperimentaldevelopmentthantheydoinresearch,whilecompaniesintheUKaerospacesectorspendroughlytwiceasmuchonresearchastheydoondevelopment.88

Inmostofthedevelopedworld,R&Dactivitiesareprimarilyfundedbyprivateenterprise,whereasthepublicsectorplaysamoresignificantroleinmostdevelopingcountries.89However,thebalancevariesconsiderablybetweennations.InsomecountriesbusinessinvestmentsinR&Dfaroutweighthoseofgovernment,universitiesorotherfunders.In2007theproportionoftotalR&Dwhichwasfundedbybusinesswas84%inMalaysia,70%inChina,66%in

81 InterviewwithProfessorShemO.Wadinga.QuotecourtesyoftheRoyalSocietyofChemistry.

82 Seehttp://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/authored_newsitem.cws_home/companynews05_01269,accessed13October2010.

83 FigurebasedonanalysisofaccesstoRoyalSocietyPublishingjournalcontent.SeeReesM(2010).SpeechbyLordRees,PresidentoftheRoyalSociety,atScienceOnline,BritishLibrary,3September2010.Availableonlineathttp://royalsocietypublishing.org/site/includefiles/Keynote_speech.pdf.

84 SeeRomerD(1990).Endogenous technical change.JournalofPoliticalEconomy98,5,S71102;MokyrJ(1992).The lever of riches: technological creativity and economic progress.OxfordUniversityPress:Oxford,UK;LipseyR,CarlawK&BekarC(2005).Economic transformations: general-purpose technologies and long-term growth.OxfordUniversityPress:Oxford,UK;HallB&RosenbergN(eds)(2010).Handbook of the economics of innovation.Elsevier:Amsterdam,TheNetherlands.

85 FreemanC(2002).Continental, national and sub-national innovation systemscomplementarity and

economic growth.ResearchPolicy31,2,191211.

86 SeeChenD&DahlmanC(2004).Knowledge and development: a cross-section approach.WorldBankPolicyResearchWorkingPaperNo.3366.Thispaperarguedthatbetween1960and2000,a20%annualincreaseinthenumberofpatentsgrantedintheUSAwhetherthetechnologiesoriginatedlocallyoroverseasproducedanincreaseineconomicgrowthof3.8percentagepoints.WorldBank:Washington,DC,USA.

87 NESTA(2009).The innovation index.Thisreportshowedthattwo-thirdsoftheproductivitygrowth

intheUKsprivatesectorbetween2000and2007wasattributabletoinnovationincludingtechnologicaladvances.NationalEndowmentforScience,TechnologyandtheArts:London,UK.

88 Source:UKNationalStatistics(2009).Research and development in UK businesses 2009datasets (Table5).Availableonlineathttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_commerce/berd-2009/2009-dataset-links.pdf,accessed17January2011.

89 UNESCO(2009).A global perspective on research and development.UNESCOInstituteforStatisticsFactSheetNo2,October2009(pp911).

BenjaminFranklinslettertoPeterCollinsondescribingthePhiladelphiaExperiment,3October1752.FromtheRoyalSocietylibraryandarchive.


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theUSA,and57%inAustralia.IntheUK,businessenterprisefunded47%ofallexpenditureonR&D.Bycontrast,businesswasresponsibleforonly29%oftotalR&DspendinginArgentinaandtheRussianFederation,19%inSriLankaand14%inTunisia.90

Theroleofbusinessinsciencehasgrowninrecentyears,withtheproportionofR&Dfundedbytheprivatesectorincreasingsteadily.In1981,52%oftheOECDcountriesspendingonresearchanddevelopmentwasfundedbyindustry;by2008thishadreachednearly65%.91

Is business R&D recession proof?Intheaftermathoftheglobaleconomiccrisisin2008,privatesectorR&DinvestorshavestruggledtomaintaintheirlevelsofinvestmentinR&D.Afterfouryearsof5%growthininvestmentyearonyear,in2009R&Dspendingbytheworldsleading1,400businessR&Dinvestorsfellby1.9%onthepreviousyear.92

TheEUIndustrialR&DInvestmentScoreboard2010showsthatin2009theleadingcompaniesinEuropehaddecreasedtheirR&Dinvestmentby2.6%since2008,andintheUSAthisfellby5.1%.However,therewasanincreaseof40%inChinaand27.3%inIndia.WithinEuropetherewasconsiderablefluctuationtoo:FrenchprivateR&Dinvestmentfellby4.5%,butinSpainitgrewby15.4%onthepreviousyear.Individualsectorshavealsoexperienceddifferingfortunes;pharmaceuticalcompaniesincreasedinvestmentinR&Dbyover5%,whiletheautomobileindustrysspendfellby11.6%.TheimpactofglobalrecessionhasnothadauniformeffectonthepatternsofcorporateR&Dinvestment.

RecentsurveyevidencefromtheEuropeanCommissionshowsthatleadingEU-basedinvestorsexpecttheirR&Dspendingtocontinuegrowingbetween2010and2011,albeitatlowerratesthanin

previousyears.ThesurveyedcompaniesexpectR&DinvestmenttocontinuegrowingstronglyoutsidetheEU,especiallyinIndiaandChina.93

Location of business R&DBusinessR&Dhasbecomeincreasinglymobilesincethemid-1980s,followingtheinternationalisationofmanufacturingduringthe1970s.94Therearenowmanymorelargebusinesseswithglobalresearchoperations,manyofwhomhavelocatedlaboratoriesindifferentpartsoftheworldforstrategicreasons.AcaseinpointisMicrosoftResearchwhohavesetupanumberoflaboratoriesandbusinessesnotonlyintheircoreexpertiseofsoftware,butalsoinotherfieldssuchashealthcare,energy,environmentandrobotics.Manycompanieshavefollowedsimilarmodels,suchasSanofi-Aventis(whohaveR&DoperationsinChina,Japan,SouthKorea,India,theUSA,France,UKandDenmark)andShell(whichhastechnicalcentresintheUSA,theNetherlands,UK,Canada,France,Germany,India,Norway,Oman,QatarandSingapore).Intheperiodfrom1993to2002,R&Dspendingbyforeigninvestorsgrewfrom10%to16%ofglobalbusinessR&D(fromanestimatedUS$30billiontoUS$67billion).95

DevelopedeconomiesarestillthefavouredlocationsforforeignR&Dinvestors,96butthegrowthintheamountofR&a

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