Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation February 2009
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Transcript of Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation February 2009
Klckner & Co SE
A Leading Multi Metal Distributor
February 2009
Gisbert RhlCFO
2Agenda
2.
Preliminary results FY 2008
Appendix
3.
Market update
4.
Strategy update
5.
General targets and outlook
1.
Overview
3Klckner & Co at a glanceKlckner & Co
z Leading producer-independent steel and metal distributor in the European and North American markets combined
z Network with more than 260 distribution locations in Europe and North America
z More than 10,000 employees
GB
24%
21%
14%
7%
5%
9%
20%Germany
France Spain
Nether-lands
Switzerland
Sales split by markets
As of September 2008
Steel-flat Products
Steel-long Products
Special and
Quality Steel
Aluminum
Other Products
31%
31%
10%
9%
6%
13%
Sales split by product
As of September 2008
Other
Machinery/Manufacturing
Auto-
motive*
42%
25%
6%
27%
Sales split by industry
As of December 2007
Construction USA
Tubes
*
Since
deconsolidation
of Namasco Ltd.
4Distributor in the sweet spot
Local customersGlobal suppliers
Suppliers Sourcing Products and servicesLogistics/
Distribution Customers
z Global Sourcing in competitive sizes
z Strategic partnerships
z Frame contractsz Leverage one
supplier against the other
z No speculative trading
z One-stop-shop with wide product range of high-quality products
z Value added processing services
z Quality assurance
z Efficient inventory management
z Local presencez Tailor-made
logistics including on-time delivery within 24 hours
z > 210,000 customers
z No customer with more than 1% of sales
z Average order size of 2,500
z Wide range of industries and markets
z Service more important than price
z Purchase volume p.a. of >6 million tons
z Diversified set of worldwide approx. 70 suppliers
Klckner & Cos value chain
5z Volume related increase and windfall profits result in strong EBITDA but high level of capital employed because of value and volume of stock
How the business model of Klckner & Co works in
High profitability in upturn due to windfall profits and volume increaseStrong cash flow generation in downturn due to working capital release
An upturn with price and volume increases
EBITDAStock turnover
cycle
of ~80 days
EBITDA
Windfall
profits
Volume
z Windfall losses and write-offs but strong cash flow generation to reduce net debt
A downturn with price and volume declines
Net working
capital
Stock turnover
cycle
of ~80 days
Net working
capital
Cash flow
6Longterm
financial development
1
1999 to 2005 unaudited
pro-forma
figures, Cash flow
adjusted
for
M&A-activities; 2
preliminary
results
Sales in
bn1
EBITDA in
million1
Year
FCF in
million1
201 65 211 69 112 80 147 126 86
4.5
5.3
4.2 4.0 3.8
4.85.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
151 220 150 156 140 349 197
Even in heavy
downturn
markets
with
massive price
declines
still positive EBITDA and FCF
5.5
2006
395
6.3
2007
371
6.7
20082600
7Agenda
2.
Preliminary results FY 2008
Appendix
3.
Market update
4.
Strategy update
5.
General targets and outlook
1.
Overview
8Revenue and EBITDA above 2007 but outlook unclear
Preliminary results FY 2008
z Revenues 6% up to 6.7bn
z EBITDA increased by approx. 60% to 595m
z Operating EBITDA increased by approx. 25% to 415m, negatively impacted by year-end inventory write-downs of approx. 60m
z Significant reduction of net debt to 570m, almost halved since Q2 2008
z Q4 with operating EBITDA almost balanced out before write-downs despite strong volume and price decline
z Tonnage decreased by 8% to approx. 6m tons in 2008, mainly driven by shortfall in Q4 and deconsolidation of Namasco Ltd.
z Immediate action program in response to current economic developments extended
9Agenda
2.
Preliminary results FY 2008
Appendix
3.
Market update
4.
Strategy update
5.
General targets and outlook
1.
Overview
10
z Prices could come close to bottoming out after sharp decline in Q4 2008z Significant global production cuts and destocking could leave the market short in Q2
if demand recoversz If demand stays weak falling raw material contract prices could again pressure prices
in H2z Government stimulus programs are expected to support steel demand but with
limited effect in 2009
Ongoing demand risks are dominating steel market outlook
e
EU domestic prices in EUR/t (Source: SBB)
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan 0
6Ma
r 06
May 0
6Ju
l 06
Sep 0
6No
v 06
Jan 0
7Ma
r 07
May 0
6Ju
l 07
Sep 0
7No
v 07
Jan 0
8Ma
r 08
May 0
8Ju
ly 08
Sep 0
8No
v 08
Jan 0
9
HRC Sections
NA domestic prices FOB US Midwest mill in US$/to (Source: SBB)
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
Jan 0
6Ma
r 06
May 0
6Ju
l 06
Sep 0
6No
v 06
Jan 0
7Ma
r 07
May 0
7Ju
l 07
Sep 0
7No
v 07
Jan 0
8Ma
r 08
May 0
8Ju
l 08
Sep 0
8No
v 08
Jan 0
9
WF Beams HRC
11
Government stimulus programs in major markets
USA: $790bn
z Focus on national infrastructure $500bn, i.e. $60bn over 10 years for transportation infrastructure
z 6% of national GDP*
Programs will support steel demand
China: $600bn
z End of 2008-2010z Predominantly infrastructure and social
projects
z 18% of national GDP*
European Union: 200bn
z Support of employment and infrastructure investments
z 1.5% of national GDP*
Germany: 50bn
z 2009/2010z Thereof 14-18bn in infrastructure and
reconstruction of schools and universities
z 2% of national GDP*
*based on GDP 2007Source: Reuters/ Bloomberg January
12
Agenda
2.
Preliminary results FY 2008
Appendix
3.
Market update
4.
Strategy update
5.
General targets and outlook
1.
Overview
13
Three scenarios for 2009
z On the following three slides we provide a framework of how our business can be impacted by volume and price declines in general
z Three different scenarios are shown:
z A: -8% in volumes, 2%-points gross margin contraction
z B: -12% in volumes, 2.5%-points gross margin contraction
z C: -15% in volumes, 3%-points gross margin contraction
z The scenarios do not necessarily reflect management's expectation about future development
z Scenarios are not adjusted for further necessary cost cutting initiatives to be implemented in case of scenario B and C
z Since the visibility for 2009 is limited we cannot provide guidance at this point in time
The scenarios cannot be taken as a guidance
14
Scenario A (-8% volume and 2%p gross margin contraction)*
OperationalEBITDA 2008
Windfalls expected
(20-60 M40)
OperationalEBITDA w/o
windfalls
2% margincontraction
8% volumereduction
8% volumereduction -
variable costs
AcquisitionsLTM
STAR and costreductions
EBITDAscenario A
EBITDA
415 -40 375 -120-110 +20
+50225
Leverage
Net Debt
+10
Net debt YE2008
13% NWCreduction
Total cash floww/o change
NWC
Cash out cartelpenalty
Net debtscenario A
570 -160-120
390
Leverage YE2008
Leveragescenario A
1.41.7
100
* 2008 based
on preliminary
figures, windfall
profits
estimated, all figures
in
million
15
Scenario B (-12% volume and 2.5%p gross margin contraction)*
OperationalEBITDA 2008
Windfalls expected
(20-60 M40)
OperationalEBITDA w/o
windfalls
2.5% margincontraction
12% volumereduction
12% volumereduction -
variable costs
AcquisitionsLTM
STAR and costreductions
EBITDAscenario B
EBITDA
415 -40 375 -150
-160 +30 155
+X**
Leverage
Net Debt
+10
Net debt YE2008
17% NWCreduction
Total cash floww/o change
NWC
Cash out cartelpenalty
Net debtscenario B
570 -220 -80-X**
370
-X**
Leverage YE2008
Leveragescenario B
1.4
16
Scenario C (-15% volume and 3%p gross margin contraction)*
OperationalEBITDA 2008
Windfalls expected
(20-60 M40)
OperationalEBITDA starting
point w/owindfalls
3% margincontraction
1