KITWe
-
Upload
luciano-gallon -
Category
Education
-
view
83 -
download
0
description
Transcript of KITWe
Chain
Knowledge-Invention-Technology-Wealth (KITWe)
A System Dynamics basic model
Luciano Gallón ([email protected])
Colombia Spain
Murcia, 2007.06.22
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
International Sociological Association (ISA)
7th International Conference of Sociocybernetics
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 2 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Intention
Learn by sharing
I will try to be the less subjective I can !
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 3 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Agenda
• Two Questions
• Definitions
• The Model
• Simulations
• Conclusions
• A final thought
• References
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 4 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Two Questions
• First
– Which would be
• a basic systemic and dynamic model
• of the system made up of the elements:
– Knowledge
– Invention
– Technology and
– Wealth
– (which will be denominated KITWe Chain)?
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 5 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Two Questions
• Second
– What behavior can be
• obtained from the elements of the model so that the
– Characteristics
– Relationships
– Causes and
– Consequences
• of the management decisions associated to
– the intervention of the surroundings and
– projects of knowledge or technology
• that modify the behavior of the wealth can be better
included or understood?
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 6 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Two Questions
• From another point of view
– We’re looking for a model that
• helps to understand and
• to predict
• failures and successes
• in technology projects
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 7 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Definitions
• Knowledge– Data and information useful application
• Invention– Knowledge based new data and information useful
application
• Technology– Utility (useful use) related to tools that mediate between
human activity and its environment
• Innovation– Technology improvement by invention with a reproducible
registry of it
• Wealth– A measurement of human needs’ integral satisfaction
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 8 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
The Model
• The System Dynamics tool
– Textual Description
– Causal Diagram
– Equations
– Forrester Diagram
– Simulation (with www.vensim.com)
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 9 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
The Model
• The main question– How behaves wealth depending on the relationship
between knowledge investment and technology investment?
• Suppose a context composed by– useful data and information
• Suppose (as a simplification) that– innovation exist as a parameter affecting fluxes in the same
way as will be pictured
• Dimensionless variables and constants
• 36 months behavior observation– Further model developments could be made with 60, 120 or
even 240 months observation
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 10 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
The Model
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 11 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
The Model
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 12 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
The Model
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 13 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
The Model
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 14 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
The Simulations
• Focus Factors
– Knowledge_Investment_Factor (KIF)
– Technology_Investment_Factor (TIF)
• Extreme conditions
– KIF / TIF = 0.1
– KIF / TIF = 0.9
• What happens?
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 15 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
The SimulationsConocimiento
10
9.5
9
8.5
8
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Time (Month)
Dm
nl
Conocimiento : Current
Tecnologia
4
3
2
1
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Time (Month)
Dm
nl
Tecnologia : Current
Invencion
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Time (Month)
Dm
nl
Invencion : Current
Riqueza
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Time (Month)
Dm
nl
Riqueza : Current
Tecnologia
40
30
20
10
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Time (Month)
Dm
nl
Tecnologia : Current
Conocimiento
400
300
200
100
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Time (Month)
Dm
nl
Conocimiento : Current
Riqueza
100
75
50
25
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Time (Month)
Dm
nl
Riqueza : Current
Invencion
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Time (Month)
Dm
nl
Invencion : Current
KIF / TIF = 0.1 KIF / TIF = 0.9
Invention
Knowledge
Technology
Wealth
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 16 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Conclusions
• Tendencies was defined using common sense
– no historical data or personal experiences with detailed information
– a next model version could be made with less subjectivity
• Use of dimensionless variables and constants easy the modeling work
– a next model version will need appropriate dimensions (which ones?)
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 17 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Conclusions
• These first basic model’s results confirm the hypothesis that without a careful investment balance between knowledge and technology you can end with serious consequences on wealth– It is observed that with a surcharge towards the
investment in technology a very early gold stage is had that leads finally to the catastrophe
– however, with a surcharge towards the investment in knowledge a very slow stage of growth is had that leads finally to an accelerated and virtuous growth of all the levels of the wealth
– Intermediate relations of FIC/FIT (0.3 to 0.7) show a system with better levels of balance
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 18 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
A final thought
• Every minute of this presentation (even every minute of this conference!)
– Population on developed countries added
2 more humans to planet earth
– Population on developing countries added
151 more humans to planet earth
Source www.prb.org/Articles/2006/WorldPopulationClock2006.aspx
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 19 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
References
• Gallón, L. & Robledo, J. (2004). Aumentando la inteligencia de la organización mediante el descubrimiento de conocimiento en bases de datos. Medellín: Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana.
• Martín, J. (2006). Teoría y ejercicios prácticos de dinámica de sistemas. Barcelona: Juan Martín García.
• Max-Neef, M. A., Elizalde, A., & Hopenhayn, M. (1994). Desarrollo a escala humana: Conceptos, aplicaciones y algunas reflexiones (1a. ed.). Barcelona; Montevideo: Icaria; Nordan-Comunidad.
• Ventana Systems Inc. (1996-2007). Vensim Software. Harvard, USA.
©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 20 de 20
Education
UsefulSurroundings
MotivationUsefulInformation
ProblemsIdentification
IdeasGeneration
KnowledgeInvestment
TechnologyInvestment
Health
Cultural
Financial
Environment
Policy
UsefulData
Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor
Innovation
KnowledgeDiscovery
Knowledge
Invention
Technology
Wealth
Knowledge Lost
KnowledgeApplication
KnowledgeWasteful
KnowledgeRegistry
WealthProduction
WealthDestruction
Obsolescence
Thank you !