Kitsap Regional Alternative Futures Project

May 5, 2011

KRCC Planning Directors

The SettingIn the past 50 years, Kitsap County grew from 84,000 to 251,000 people.

1960: 1 person/3 acresToday: 1 person/1 acre

In the next 50 years we are expected to grow to 450,000.

2060: 1 person/0.56 ac

QuestionHow can Kitsap County accommodate growth while maintaining the viability of the economy and the environment?

Describe Alternative FuturesDescribe Envision softwareEnvision SkagitEnvision Kitsap

Today’s Discussion

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Alternative Futures

Alternative FuturesA planning method which compares long-term effects of planning policies

Decision support toolScenarios: set of policies characterized by a particular valueIndicators

ExamplesWillametteChico WatershedSilverdale/Barker

Alternative FuturesDCD received EPA grant

2010-2012

Local PartnersILAs with Bainbridge Island, BremertonVarying involvement: Other cities, tribes

ContractorsOSU: Create Envision Kitsap modelBattelle: Integrate Envision model with nearshore assessment

Kitsap Alternative Futures ProjectPurpose as stated in EPA contract

Accommodate growth while improving priority habitat of Kitsap’s shoreline and uplands

What DCD aims to get from the projectA modeling tool to examine impacts of land use decisions (e.g., UGA expansions/ contractions, zoning)Growth in Kitsap that is economically and environmentally viable

Kitsap Alternative Futures Project

Step 1: Get organized (2010)Step 2: Create Kitsap’s model (2011)Step 3: Test model (2011/12)Step 4: Use model (2012)

Get organized

(2010)

Get organized

(2010)

Create model(2011)

Create model(2011)

Test model(2011)

Test model(2011)

Use model(2012)

Use model(2012)

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Envision Software Package

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Envision software packagePurpose: facilitate alternative futures analysisHelps users

Develop and play out alternative land use scenariosVisualize resulting growth via time series mapsCommunicate ecological, economic and social changes (maps, graphs, tables)

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Envision software packageOrganizes three-way interactions of actors, the landscape and policies.

Polic

iesActors

Landscapes

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Envision software packageActors

Have decision making authority over parcels of landAre characterized by the values they express through their behaviors, which alter land use

Landscape Summation of parcelsChanges as individual decisions are made

Policies (aka Development Rules)Guide and constrain decisions

Envision– General Structure

Policies: Fundamental Descriptors of

constraints and actions defining land use

management decision making

Landscape: Spatial

Container in which land use changes are

depicted

Landscape Evaluative Change Models: Generate landscape metrics reflecting scarcity

Autonomous Change Processes: Models of

nonhuman change

Actors: Decision makers making

landscape change by selecting policies responsive to their

objectives Actions

PolicySelection

Landscape Feedback

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Envision PoliciesEnvision’sPolicy Wizard help users create the policies that constrain actors.

Spatially explicitTemporally explicitScenario-specific

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Envision ScenariosEnvision’sScenario Wizard helps users bundle policies into coherent scenarios

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Envision LandscapeLandscape comprised of Individual Decision Units (IDUs)

Single actorBasic unit to analyze landscape changeEssentially parcelsEvery rule is applied to every IDU for every year

Envision Landscape EvaluatorsMaps and Graphs that reflect scenario’s performance with respect to indicators

Year by yearAll scenarios

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Envision Indicators Should measure/report

Things that are importantThings that decision makers care about and will inform/influence decisions

ExamplesUrban/rural splitPopulation by City/UGA, etc.Acres of commercial, residential landAcres of habitat available for key species

ENVISION SKAGITInitial Outputs

Envision Skagit 2060One year ahead of Kitsap’s effortSimilarities

EPA-grant fundedIndicatorsScenarios

Initial Envision results released in December

Zoning

Zoning

Floodplain

Existing UGAs (2010)

2060 UGAs – Plan Trend Scenario

2060 UGAs – Ecosystem Scenario

2060 UGAs – Development Scenario

New Dwelling Units – Ecosystem 2060

New Dwelling Units – Development 2060

ENVISION KITSAPCurrent Status, Next Steps

Envision Kitsap: IDUsDeveloping Individual Decision Units

140,000 Parcel IDUs36K have “Constrained Development Portion”

1,800 Road IDUs900 Shoreline IDUs16 Lake IDUs

Envision Kitsap: Priority Areas

Types of “Priority Areas”ConservationDevelopment

Tells Envision places more/less suited for Development and Conservation

Envision will track population changes within Priority AreasEnvision will nudge people towards Development Priority Areas

Priority Areas

ConservationCritical Areas Habitat qualityWater flowLand cover

DevelopmentInfrastructureServicesJurisdictions

Draft

Draft

Envision Kitsap: PopulationPopulation growth

1.13% 2010 to 2030 (PSRC)1.2% 2030 to 2060 (OFM & PSRC)

Population growth is the primary driver of land use change Envision allocates

“Plan Trend” will use CPPs’ allocation for 2010-2030Total population same for each scenario

Next Steps: ScenariosScenario = Set of development rules

Plan TrendDevelopmentEcosystemResource Harvest

Types of development rulesUrban/rural splitZoning densityBuilding in constrained areas, resource landsLot aggregationUGA contraction

Next Steps: ScenariosFirst “Plan Trend” then other “bookends”

Sufficiently different to show policy impacts Robust is helpful; timid is not

RolesDCD staff: Propose set of development rulesBoard: ReviewCity/tribal planners: Review/commentOSU: Translate the development rules into Envision code

When: Spring

QUESTIONS ?Kitsap Alternative Futures Project