Kings Fleet & Falkenham IDB Abstraction Licence Application...29/01/2016 00:00 03/02/2016 00:00...
Transcript of Kings Fleet & Falkenham IDB Abstraction Licence Application...29/01/2016 00:00 03/02/2016 00:00...
Kings Fleet & Falkenham IDB Abstraction
Licence Application Yield Assessment
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Conjunctive use or Farm
reservoir – yield Dependent
Current Constraints
• Estimated average yield 1500-2000Ml.
• 600-800 Ml demand for irrigation
• 1000Ml+ demand for P.W.S
• 188 Ml currently licenced
• Design year yield unknown
• Lack of local reliable flow data
• Currently two pumping stations Kings fleet and Falkenham
• Possible to move water from Kings Fleet to Falkenham
• Water Quality constraints
• Freshwater flow to Estuary
Assessing Yield
Hydrological models
Catchment Hydrology
• Available Methods include Low Flows Enterprise; NEAC model ; Catchment comparison; Rainfall run off modelling .
• Catchmod Rainfall runoff modelmost suited to this application .
• Catchment divided into hydrological zones.
• Water moves vertically through a series of conceptual stores in each zone
• Inputs Potential Evaporation and Rainfall 1970-2015.
• Calibrated with catchment observed flow data
Kings Fleet – Falkenham
model Build
Inputs
• Potential Evaporation MORECS weekly .
• 1970-2015 Rainfall Locally gauged for Calibration – Levington for P.O.R. (inc other gauges for infilling).
• Flows – gauged at Falkenham and kings fleet Pumps . Check with other gauges , Holesley, Brantham, Playford etc.
• Hydrological zones; superficial Aquifer 35%, Alluvium 32%, London clay 25%, Hard surface rapid 8%
• Single unit calibration
IDB Pump data
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Kings fleet hourly Discharge 01/01/2016 to 11/03/2015
Series1
168 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)
24 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)
• Significant periodicity @ 24 hour and 7 day – not hydrological – cost minimisation
• Correction required for calibration . Maximum period of 7 day selected as filter .
• Model output's reported to 7 day rolling output .
• Uncertainty regarding the more rapid response functions of the catchment .
• Local gauge and model checks indicate good accuracy of gauged data (next slide)
IDB Gauging Plausibility
checks
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run
off
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Kings Fleet & Falkenham IDB pumped cumulative runoff compared to L.F.E. Mean monthly runoff. Data shown for Time period September 2015 to March 2016 - 96 % L.T.A. Rainfall
L.F.E gauged
L.T.A. Rainfall 2015/2016 Rainfall
Series5 Poly. (L.F.E)
Poly. (L.T.A. Rainfall) Poly. (2015/2016 Rainfall)
• Early monitoring data Sep 2015 –Mar 2016 run off compared to gauge and existing steady state models .
• Sep 2015 – Mar 2016 Rainfall 96 % of L.T.A.
• Sep 2015 – Mar 2016 Measured run off 99 % L.T.A compared to L.F. E model . (95mm)
• Very encouraging checks for accurate metering .
IDB Pump Totals 2015-2016
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BIC
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Cumulative Pumped Volume
Kings fleet Falkenham 2 Falkenham 1
• Total Measured
discharge 01/08/2015 to
31/06/2016. Approx.
2800000m3
• Runoff 57 % Kings fleet: 43% Falkenham
• Area 61% king fleet: 39%
Falkenham
• Rainfall Aug to June 114
% L.T.A.
Catchmod Rainfall runoff
model Calibration
• Calibrate to individual
hydrological zones .
• Soil moisture profiles
• Flow statistics including flow
duration curves .
• Catchment yield.
• Total flow
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Rain
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cu
mecs)
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Contribution to Flows by Area (Kings fleet)
Observed Rainfall Simulated
Area 1: Gravel crag Area 2: Alluvium Area 3: London clay
Area 4: Urban 8 per. Mov. Avg. (Observed) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Simulated)
Total flow Calibration
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Rain
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Model Fit (Kings Fleet & Falkenham)
Observed Rainfall Simulated Flow 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Observed ) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Simulated Flow)
• 7 day rolling output to remove
periodicity.
• Removes probable urban
peaks- attenuated by storage
• Good calibration of observed
aquifer baseflow trends.
• Probable 10-15 %
underestimate of long term
average yield
• Underestimate associated with
run off from marsh area , too
high S.M.D. in shoulder months.
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•
Catchmod calibration ‘v’
existing models. L..F E
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Modelled Run off M3/s/km2 - L.F.E. and Catchmod
Catchmod Low Flows Enterprise
• Good calibration of seasonal
runoff with steady state
models .
• Baseflow months Consistently
10-15 % lower . Runoff
dominated months 10-15 5
higher.
• Consistent with
conceptualisation that L. f. E.
model overestimates baseflow
index @ 0.82 .
Calibration flow Duration
statistics
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Percentile
Catchmod and L.F.E. Mean Daily flow Duration curves
Modelled 1973-2015
L.F.E
model calibration 7 day
IDB gauged 7day
• Good Calibration with
observed
• Modelled and observed flow
expected to exceed L.T.A.
• Monitoring period generated
significantly more run off than
Long term 1970-2014 modelled
• Long term modelled conforms
to conceptualisation of
greater runoff and lower
baseflow relative to existing
model .
• Catchmod Modelled mean
yield believed to be 10-15 %
below actual .
Catchmod Aquifer zone
Calibration
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18/02/1982 11/08/1987 31/01/1993 24/07/1998 14/01/2004 06/07/2009 27/12/2014 18/06/2020
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Catchmod Calibration - Aquifer flows and Observed groundwater hydrographs
Gravel sim flows elm cottage levels
Mill lane Boyton
• Aquifer 35 % of total runoff. Major summer component .
• Longer term Calibration with local groundwater levels , extends calibration period beyond flow monitoring .
• Very good trend calibration with Elm Cottage Hollesley and mill Lane Boyton.
•
Catchmod Final
Calibration
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Kings Fleet modelled Total flow and Crag/gravel Baseflow
• Mean Daily flow data sets 1970-2015 ( calibrated to weekly)
• Winter run off more significant than other models B.F.I. 0.62 ‘v’ 0.85 L.F.E
• Vulnerability to dry winters
• Significant hard surface runoff component.
• Crag/gravel baseflow providing significant summer yield . Model believed to underestimate crag flows in dry years . Q(bf) mean = 0.025m3/sec . Probable 0.030m3/sec
• Calibration Mean run off - low 119mm, MORECS/HOST gridded 127mm (baseflow component)
IDB pumped Catchment
Design Year
• IDB estimated mean
yield 2000 Ml
• Modelled mean yield
1930 Ml
• Lowest 661Ml in 1990
• Highest 5141 Ml in 2000
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IDB POTENTIAL GROSS YIELD KINGS FLEET & FALKENHAM
Modelled gross yield
Catchmod Mean Gross yield
IDB Estimated Mean yield
Scheme Reliability
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Yield /Probability Curve - 1970-2015
Irrigation Only Scheme Multi use Scheme
• Assuming Resource can be
fully optimised. Unrestricted
infrastructure capability
• Multi use Scheme – 2100 Ml- 65
% chance of non-availability
in any year.
• Irrigation Scheme – 800 Ml - 4
% risk of non- availability.
• Irrigation Scheme – 600 Ml –
100 % reliable.
• Precautionary model
calibration Reasonable
assumption to increase dry
year yield by 10-15%
Further constraint
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Kings Fleet modelled Total flow and Crag/gravel Baseflow Design year 1995-1997
• Infrastructure to transfer
high flows.
• Freshwater flow to tide –
(S.P.A.) 0.6 Ml/day could
reduce deployable output
by 33%.
• Freshwater flow to tide
TRAC waterbody whole
estuary target. W.F.D.
assessment required .
• Salinity
• Access arrangements for
new point of abstraction .