Scientific update

Kim Ejlertsen- Palle Bendsen NOAH-Friends of the Earth Denmark

Energi og Klima Gruppen

11. november 2008

Global emissions

Stabilization scenarios AR4

Source: IPCC november 2007. Synthesis Report p. 67, table 5.1

AR4 estimates for cumulated emissions year 2000-2100

800 Gt CO2-eq is a key figure for the cumulated emissions of GHGs in the 21th century to keep the temperature increase

below 2 degree C

• In the period 2000-2005 we emitted 234 Gt CO2-eq

• The global emissions in 2004 amounted 49 Gt CO2-eq per year

• Including emissions in 2006 + 2007, we have less than 500 Gt CO2-eq left for the rest of the century. Including 2008 + 2009 the figure is less than 400 Gt CO2-eq

AR4 says that 2 degree C means a global 85 % reduction in GHG emissions before 2050

• A 85 % reduction with year 2000 as basis equivalent about 87,5 % with year 2005 as basis

• Assuming a global emission of about 49 Gt CO2-eq in 2005 the emissions should be reduced to about 6,2 Gt CO2-eq in 2050

• A linear reduction leads to a cumulated emission of 1240 Gt CO2-eq compared to an exponential reduction giving a cumulated emission of 930 Gt CO2-eq

• To get in the scale of cumulated 500 Gt CO2-eq or 400 Gt CO2-eq the emission reductions must be supplemented with big scale afforestation and changed land use securing a positive C-balance in forrests and (agricultural) land

What reduction pathway should we choose?

What do other institutions say?350 ppm CO2 = 445 ppm CO2-eq

• James Hansen, NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA < 350 ppm CO2

• SEI together with the Tällberg Initiative < 350 ppm CO2

• EcoEquity, USA < 400 ppm CO2-eq

• Tyndall Centre, University of Manchester refers to Meinshausen < 350 ppm CO2-eq for a 93 % probability of temperature increase to stay below 2 degree – but say it is practically unachievable – 450 ppm CO2-eq corresponds to max 858 Gt CO2-eq cumulated, peak 2015, post peak total 4% year by year reductions and energy and process 6-8% year by year reductions

The global challange2 ° C * Annex 1 – 90% * non-Annex –80% * 2050

EcoEquity

EU´s contribution to the global reductions

EU-27 GHG reductionsEnvironmental Space target curve after 2005

2060

46554073

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1000

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6000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

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em

issi

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Environmental Space Curve -20% target -30% target