Market Forecast for Biscuits

in Kazakhstan

Bay Wan Ting | Chan Li Feng Carissa |Eu Sin Yi| He Jia Ling |Cyndy Lin Xin Yi | Hena Suhail 1

INTRODUCTION ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTTARGET

Parameters Identify Target Market

Only one city: Astana Focus on Domestic Market in

Kazakhstan Analysis of Biscuit Market in

Kazakhstan Estimate Customer Demand

(Volume) based on 2013 for market entry in 2014

Sales Forecast for 2015 to 2019 to base on gross sales revenues

Competitors are considered based the same product range

Assumptions

× Entry Modes× Distribution Channels× Costs× Importing and exporting to

other neighboring countries

Stagnant Competition Same Price Range as in

Singapore Constant Exchange Rate The same taste and

preferences for all cities as indicated by the country

Constant inflation rate for 2015 to 2019

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KAZAKHSTAN

DEMAND FORECASTANALYSISINTRODUCTION TARGET

Major cities: Astana, Almaty, Karagandy, Shymkent

Consumer expenditure per capita 76.9% by 2020

36.1% in GDP (2014 – 2019)

Why Astana?1) Projected increase in population by 40.2%2) High investment growth of 14% High purchasing power3) Contributes to 10% of the nation’s GDP4) High exposure to international food brands Receptive to foreign brands and willingness to pay

a premium for quality5) Soaring consumer expenditure per household on food (88.2%) between 2007 to 2012

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DEMAND FORECASTINTRODUCTION

Positioning: International Premium Brand Aligned with our Strategic direction: revamp packaging & introducing new biscuit variants

to improve brand image Target Market: Mass market of all age group Product: All product Range Price: Competitive Pricing

ANALYSISTARGET

KHONG GUAN’S STRATEGIES

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Growing demand of biscuits products in general

Consumed biscuits as snacks with tea or coffee by all consumer age groups

Strong loyalty to domestic/home-grown products accounted for 31% of the current value sales of biscuits in 2012

CONSUMERTRENDS

INTRODUCTION ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTTARGET

Year

Source: Euromonitor International January 2013

Plain Biscuits

Savoury Biscuits

Filled Biscuits

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Sales of biscuit by category

COMPETITORSInternational Brand

International manufacturers have strong positions

Mainly represented by Russian & Turkish manufacturers which

import their products via distribution partners.

Offer standard and premium price range products,

31%

Domestic Brand

Produces biscuits products in a diverse and rich range.

Well known to consumers by their high quality& affordable prices

Wide distribution channels in various grocery retailers

Sultan Konditerskie Izdelia (21%)

Hamle (15.4%) Union Almaty Nan

(8.4%) Rakhat (6.9%)

Yildiz Holding (17% ) Lyubimy Kray (5%)

INTRODUCTION DEMAND FORECAST

Market Share Market Share

Source: Euromonitor International January 2013

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ANALYSISTARGET

INTRODUCTION

BISCUITS MARKET DEMAND (VOLUME) 2014 to 2019

DEMAND FORECAST

Years2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Volume of Biscuit (Tonnes)

46390 46946 47781 48520 49184 49889 50613 51325 52038

Source: Euromonitor International, 2013 Calculated by Regression

Table 1: Forecasted Volume of Biscuits 2014 to 2019

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201942000440004600048000500005200054000

Year

Volume of

Biscuits (Tonnes)

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ANALYSISTARGET

INTRODUCTION

TARGET MARKET SHARES 2015 to 2019

FORECASTDEMAND

YearsTarget Market

Shares (%)2014

(Given) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Best Case 1.25 2.50 5.00 9.69 9.83 10Likely Case 0.625 1.25 2.50 4.85 4.91 5Worst Case 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.94 1.97 2

Table 2: Target Market Shares 2015 to 2019

2014 (Given)

2015 2016 2017 2018 201902468

1012

Best Case

Likely Case

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Worse Case

ANALYSISTARGET

INTRODUCTION

BISCUIT MARKET SALES FORECAST 2014 to 2019

Years2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sales of Biscuits (KZT million)

28718 29014 29555 30130 30771 31442 31885 32441 32997

Growth Rate(%)

1.03 1.86 1.94 2.13 2.18 1.41 1.74 1.71

Source: Euromonitor International, 2013 Calculated by Regression

Table 3: Forecasted Sales of Biscuits 2014 to 2019

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192600027000280002900030000310003200033000

Year

Sales of Biscuits

(KZT million)

DEMAND FORECAST

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ANALYSISTARGET

INTRODUCTION

SALES FORECAST 2015 to 2019 FORECASTDEMAND

YearsSales Forecast (KTZ Million) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Best Case 769.27 1572.11 3090.39 3188.63 3299.74Likely Case 384.64 786.06 1545.19 1594.32 1649.87Worst Case 153.85 314.42 618.08 637.73 659.95

Table 4: Sales Forecast 2015 to 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

0.00500.00

1000.001500.002000.002500.003000.003500.00

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Best Case

Likely Case

Worse Case

ANALYSISTARGET

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References• Euromonitor International. (2010). Kazakhstan in 2030: The future demographic.

Euromonitor International, 1-19.• Euromonitor International. (2012). Packaged food in Kazakhstan. Euromonitor

International, 1-42.• Euromonitor International. (2013). Biscuits in Kazakhstan. Euromonitor

International, 1-10.• Euromonitor International. (2013). Consumer Expenditure by Region. Euromonitor

International, 1-10.• Edge Kazakhstan. (2011, January 01). Astana Restaurants . Retrieved Febraury 23,

2013, from Kazakhstan edge : http://www.edgekz.com/astana-restaurants-dining/blog/page-2.html

• SojuzPravoInform LLC. (2012, Janurary 01). Republic of Kazakstan. Retrieved Febraury 23, 2013, from CIS-Legislation.com: http://cis-legislation.com/kazakhstan.fwx

• SojuzPravoTnformLLC. (n.d.).

Q&A Thank You

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