Key Sectors and Key Technology Priorities for China’s Low ...
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Key Sectors and Key Technology Priorities for China’s Low Carbon Future: Role of CCS WANG Ke Programme of Energy and Climate Economics (PECE) MOST and IEA Joint Workshop on CCS in Industry Beijing 16 October ,2012 1
Transcript of Key Sectors and Key Technology Priorities for China’s Low ...
Key Sectors and Key Technology Priorities for China’s Low Carbon
Future: Role of CCS
WANG Ke
Programme of Energy and Climate Economics
(PECE)
MOST and IEA Joint Workshop on CCS in Industry Beijing 16 October ,2012
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CO2 emissions of major countries（1850-2010）
China
USA
印度
俄罗斯
日本
德国
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000 1
85
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54
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58
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62
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66
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70
1874
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78
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82
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86
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90
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94
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98
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02
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06
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10
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14
1918
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22
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30
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42
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46
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50
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54
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58
1962
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66
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70
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74
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82
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90
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各国历年
CO
2排放（单位：百万吨）
中国
美国
印度
俄罗斯
日本
德国
韩国
加拿大
沙特
巴西
印尼
墨西哥
南非
英国
意大利
澳大利亚
法国
波兰
埃及
马来西亚
阿根廷
委内瑞拉
巴基斯坦
越南
菲律宾
孟加拉国
Data Sources：CDIAC(Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center) , Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2011 2
Sectoral Structure of China’s CO2 Emissions
Industry
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Scenarios Analysis and Technology Needs Assessment: PECE model
Social Economic
Model
(PECE-SE)
Energy Service
Demand Model
PECE-ESD
Energy Technology Model (PECE-ES)
Energy System Model(PECE)
Database
based on
ACCESS:
Economy、
Resources、Technology
、Cost, etcEnergy Service
Energy Technology
Energy Use
Emisson
Low carbon
Electricity
PECE-EL
Low Carbon
Industry
PECE-IN
Low Carbon
Transport
PECE-TR
Low Carbon
Building
PECE-BU
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Description of three original scenarios
Scenarios For short Scenario description
Reference scenario
BAU
This scenario takes full account of China’s domestic development needs. During this scenario period, the Chinese Government has imposed a limited number of additional policies (such as the phasing out of outdated productivity and the adjustment of industrial structures), and has assumedly avoided countermeasures such as carbon taxes or subsidies. Planning polices, such as the four measures aimed at emissions reduction presented by President Hu Jintao on 22 September 2009, are not included in this scenario. Most current mainstream technologies (such as SC and USC) will continue to play core roles. The scenario would provide a series of comparative reference points for China's future policy options.
Emission control scenario
EC
Under this scenario, china has made great efforts to respond to climate change. It has adopted a variety of efforts to reduce energy consumption, and achieve a structural transformation of industrial and energy systems. This scenario is aimed at reaching a higher potential for emissions reduction while minimizing socioeconomic impacts. Under this scenario, China will adopt a series of advanced measures, including a large-scale deployment of renewable energies, and achieve substantial emissions reduction results. These measures will not include a large-scale application of carbon capture and sequestration, or renewable energy sources such as solar power. It will provide a range of focus for China's future negotiating positions and policy options.
Emission abatement scenario
EA Under this scenario, China’s CO2 emission would reach peak in 2030, and would reach “maximized” potential of emission reduction with even more significant incremental cost, and widely deployment of low carbon technologies in 2050.
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Description of Three CO2 Price Path
Scenario Price Units 2020 2030 2040 2050
2a $/tonne CO2, (2005 U.S. $) 10 16 27 43
2b $/tonne CO2, (2005 U.S. $) 30 49 80 130
2c $/tonne CO2, (2005 U.S. $) 50 81 133 216
Scenarios Definition in International Model Forum: AME (Asian Modelling Exercise ) and CPO (Climate Policy Outreach )
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Baseline scenarios
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PECE
PECE
PECE
CO2 Scenario
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CO2 Intensity of GDP
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Importance of technology transfer in addressing climate change
• The innovation and diffusion of environmentally sound technologies (ESTs) is critical to meet the challenges of climate change (IPCC AR4, 2007)
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Solutions
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GDP Energy COCO Population
Population GDP Energy
Renewables,
Nuclear, etc.
CCS
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Decomposition of CO2 emission driving forces in China (2001‐2008)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2040Year
2020 20502005 2030
GT CO2
CCS
Biofuels
Nuclear
Fossil fuel subsitution
Renewable Elec
Efficiency
EA5.5
7.98.8
8.2
5.6
11.4
13.9
15.316.2
Reference
Sector-wise Potential
CCS
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Technology needs
• The currently available technologies can only make limited contribution to emission reduction, but still need some financial resources;
• R&D for future technologies, e.g. CCS, are necessary and should be made at once, assuming 10 yrs for demonstration, another 10 yrs for dissemination, and full employment after 2030;
• Some clean technologies like renewables and nuclear may encounter sorts of technological constraints which limit further deployment;
• Learning curves for most of the technologies go down over time with assumed rates; and
• Key technologies are selected with considerations of emission abatement potential and costs.
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Deployment &Diffusion (Near term) Demonstration (Mid-term) R&D (long term)
Power USC;
On-shore Wind power technology;
3rd generation large-scale Advanced pressurized water
reactor;
Geothermal- Conventional;
High-efficiency natural gas fired power generation;
Coal Integrated Gasification Combined
Cycle (IGCC);
Off shore wind power;
Solar Photovoltaic;
Geothermal–Enhanced;
2nd Biomass;
Low cost CO2 capture and storage;
Nuclear fusion;
CSP; Power storage; Smart grid;
4th nuclear generation;
Solar nanotechnology photovoltaic;
Hydrogen production, storage and distribution;
Fuel Cell
Steel CDQ; CCPP; CMC;
Power, heat and fuel recovery;
Coal Injection of Blast Furnace;
Energy management center;
COREX; FINEX;
Advance EF;
Smelting reduction technology;
Waste Plastic Injection;
Direct Casting;
CO2 capture and storage;
Transport Enhance fuel economy of vehicles by improved engine/
transmission/ matching technology;
Develop advanced diesel vehicles;
Improve railway electrification;
Aviate fuel economy management;
Hybrid vehicles;
Enhance fuel economy of transport system
by information & intelligent systems
Improved road network;
Fuel cell vehicles;
Electric-motor vehicles;
Optimizing the construction and integration of
transport capacity;
Cement NSP cement kiln technology, especially the automatic
control device and the overall operation level;
Low-temperature cogeneration technology;
Eco-cement
Alternative fuels and cement clinkers;
CCS;
Chemical New type catalyst;
Large-scaled Synthetic Ammonia equipment; Optimize
structure of raw material for Ethylene;
Alternative fuels and raw materials; CCS;
Buildings Green Lighting;
Technologies and materials of heat-insulation of external
walls and roofs; Advanced efficiency electric devices ;
District energy system;
Heat pump system; supervising and
Monitoring of building energy consumption
technologies; Heat-electricity-coal gas triple
co-supply system
Energy storage technology ;
Zero-emission buildings
Building integrated photovoltaic solar power
system;
Advanced city plan;
Key Technology Needs
105
1,200
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60
Large scale ammonia by natural gas
100
Itmk3 Iron-making
PV Smelting Reduction
4th gen nuclear
IGCC+CCS Advanced EAF
Advanced gasoline vehicles Off-shore wind
Large scale ammonia by coal
Advanced NSP 2nd gen Bio
High-power electronic devices 3rd gen nuclear
Other renewable On-shore wind
(weak wind) CHP and BCHP
CDQ Advanced diesel vehicles
Efficient grinding Geothermal
Large scale alumina New building envelope Injecting Waste Plastics
CMC
CCS in the industry Large scale
ethylene CSP
Hybrid Electric LDVs
Zero-emisison building
Smart grid
Pure electric vehicle
Fuel cell
Fuel cell vehicle
Hybrid M&L sized vehicle
0 5 10
1,100
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
On-shore wind (strong) Eco-Cement
IGCC
Natural gas power Ground Heat Pump
Small Hydro Advanced air conditioning
Large Hydro
Residual heat and pressure recovery
USC/SC
High-eff electronic devices
Waste heat power
CCPP LED
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
USC+CCS
Mitigation cost ($US, 2005 price)
Mitigation potential , 10^8 t CO2
MACs in 2050 (EA scenario)
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Sector Technology Development stage
Abatement potential (100 million tons of CO2, under the EA scenario in 2050)
Incremental investment (US$100 million, under the EA scenario in 2050 )
Power
CCS technology (including pre-combustion Carbon capture technology and post-combustion carbon capture technology, and carbon storage technology)
R&D 20.1 13849
Iron and Steel
CCS technology R&D 2.6 2955
Cement CCS technology R&D 1.3 1574
Future work: further thinking about the role of CCS in China
• “Research on China’s low carbon technology strategy” under Key Program on China’s Low Carbon Macro Strategy by NDRC
• China Technology Needs Assessment Project (GEF Project and implemented by World Bank)
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