Key SEA framing issues
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Transcript of Key SEA framing issues
Key SEA framing issues
Power demand and power trade development in the LMB and GMS
SEA Team
Purpose
• This presentation aims to illustrate the changing character of the demand for power within the LMB and where the mainstream dams fit within the mix of electricity generation
LMB Selected indicators 2004Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam
Population (million) (2004)
13.8 5.8 64.2 82.1
GDP (current USD billion)
4.9 2.2 150.1 41.2
GDP per capita (current USD)
361 420 2,519 551
FDI (USD million) 131 17 1,064 1,610
FDI/capita (USD) 9.5 2.9 16.6 19.6
Electricity use per capita (kWh)
45 160 1,752 (2003) 433 (2003)
Energy use per capita (kgoe)
180.0 355.0 1,405.7 (2003) 544.3 (2003)
Fuelwood share in total primary energy
88% 67% 16% 49%
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
Regional GMS energy issues •Dependence on traditional sources of energy (e.g. fuelwood)•20 % of GMs population (74 mil.) no access to electricity•Energy consumption in GMS is only 2/3 of the world average for developing countries
Energy poverty
widespread
•1993-2005 8% annual growth in energy consumption•21% of total energy consumed in the region imported•Volatile energy prices and limited alternative energy sources mean the region is vulnerable
Energy vulnerability
high and rising
•Energy supplies low and unpredictable – overall quality low•Lack of competitive pressure on energy suppliers•Policy regimes inadequate to address emerging challenges
Energy productivity and policy
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
High economic growth in the LMB 1985-2005
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
Significant differences in electricity consumption
Country Per capita household consumption (Kwh)
Share of residential sector in total electricity consumption (%)
Cambodia 29 52.0
Lao PDR 95 53.0
Thailand 409 21.0
Vietnam 242 42.0
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
Growing demand for power
• Not consistent between countries• All projects in Cambodia and Laos, so will be
generating more than they can consume• Mainstream project – high proportion of
power generated will be exported• If projects are planned on basis of export, they
must have secure markets, • Anticipated markets are at moment are
Thailand, Vietnam, China
Uncertainty of markets in short-term
• Thailand in economic crisis and may be some years before want to import more power
• Already some projects giving anticipated unit cost prices to break even which are well above market prices e.g. Sambor and Vietnam
• Vietnam in process of multi-year power market reform over many years, e.g. competitive generation by 2005 - 2014 and competitive retail power markets by 2022
• China moving towards greater self-provision of energySO there are uncertainties in use of this capacity from
mainstream dams and when they are going to come
Significant differences in hydropower potential (MWyr/yr)
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam Regional total (GMS)
Low –cost 1,670 4,640 2,784 3,248 54,102
Medium-cost 1,114 3,944 1,856 3,712 43,802
High-cost 742 2,320 928 1,392 23,571
Small 650 1,015 406 812 5,928
Total 4,176 11,919 5,974 9,164 127,403
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
Limited power trade flows between LMB countries in 2005 (GWh)
Exports
Imports
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam RoW Total
Cambodia - 74 74
Lao PDR - 2,628
Thailand 2,033 - 3,234 5,267
Viet Nam 521 - 521
RoW -
Total 2,628 3,234 -
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
Regional power demand• Lao –700 MW generated now with 60 MW imported
from Thailand• 7,000 MW by 2020 • 90% of 2020 will come from Hydropower• 1500 MW of 2020 would come from mainstream
dams• Domestic demand is 450 MW by 2020, so only about
7% of installed capacity• But one major energy consuming project mine might
have requirement for 60 MW
Cambodia power demand• 13 MW generated now • 90% of power generated from imported fuels • Target to reduce dependence on fuel wood from 80%
of population to 52% by 2015• Target to increase domestic provision of electricity
from to 20% of population to 70% • Potential 10,000 MW from large hydropower
projects, plus 3,000 from mini-hydro• 3,580 MW of 2020 would come from mainstream
dams (Sambor and Stung Treng)• But most of this is destined for export
Projected growth in power demand in LMB 2005-2025
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (base case projection)
LMB Regional Energy Story
time
Energy Demand
Demand delayed through demand management & efficiency measures
Future • Coal/thermal?• tributaries?• nuclear?• gas?• mainstream hydropower?• Oil?• biomass• renewable?• RoW
Existing Capacity • coal/
thermal• gas• Tributaries• Oil• biomass• RoW
Projected energy demand Projected energy demand with demand management Supply
*RoW = Rest of World
Hydropower in GMS power demand to 2025
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (base case projection)
Projected power trade with integrated power markets 2025 (GWh)
Exports
Imports
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam RoW Total
Cambodia - 40 15 55
Lao PDR 22 - 50 57 129
Thailand 9,482 42,458 - 147,269* 199,209
Viet Nam 3,612 25,988 - 5,918 35,518
RoW 644 584 - 1,228
Total 13,116 69,130 649 153,244 -
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (based on IRM modeling)*Thailand is projected to import 139,385 GWh from Myanmar by 2025
What about the crisis?
Source: World Bank 2009e – expectedf - forecast
Changing economic environment?What does this mean for investment in the energy sector? And more specifically investment in hydropower?
Mainstream dams
• Provide 11.5% of installed capacity by 2020• 9.3% of power produced in the LMB by 2020• 60 GW hrs annually of the 644 GWhrs per
annum in LMB by 2020• Conditions of BOT, 25 – 30 year handover in
which government would have the capacity to manage, but there would be major maintenance and replacements costs