Key RO Advances • Observation

– Lower tropospheric penetration (open loop / demodulation)– Larger number of profiles (rising & setting) – Detailed precision analysis (collocated soundings) – Reduced latency – Ionospheric biases - effect of solar cycle on temp. retrieval

• Atmospheric science – Global maps of ABL height (seasonal variation)– Stratospheric wave detection / Gravity wave– Detailed tropopause studies / double tropopause – Initial climate trend comparisons – Detection of Atmospheric tides– New ionospheric features (caves / bays …) – Pre - seismic ionospheric anomalies ????

Limitations of RO to date

• Too few soundings (limited by # of sats / # transmitters / antenna patterns / firmware / hardware)– Limits impact on weather forecasting– Limited impact at the mesoscale – Lack of resolving power for certain atmos.

features (i.e. in the ABL maps / Water vapor maps)

– Ionosphere coverage still sparse

Limitations of RO up to date (b)

• Limitations in data latency (currently ~80% < 3 hours)– Too slow for space weather (want 10 min) – Too slow for next gen. weather prediction

update cycles (want < 1 hour)

Limitations of RO up to date (c)

• Data quality limitations– Remaining unexplained biases in lower troposphere

• observation noise related

• atmospheric propagation effects

– Biases in stratosphere• ionospheric effects

• orbit / attitude / PCV / multipath limitations

– Height range for climate monitoring is presently limited (8 -25 km)

New Science with COSMIC II• Science at CDAAC

– Improved Quality - what can be done – Increased Quantity - how to maximize– Improved Inversion Algorithms (Weather / Climate /

Ionosphere) – New Products (Level III)

• Science from other groups using these data– Weather / Storm forecasting– Climate monitoring / Model evaluation – Ionospheric forecasting and monitoring– “New phenomena”

COSMIC II Improvements - Quantity

• More satellites (~12)• More transmitters (GPS + Galileo + GLONASS +

BeiDou?)• Better antenna FoV or beam steering• Firmware + Hardware (CPU + RAM) improvements• With 12 satellites we expect: 12*600*2 = 14,400

soundings / day• OSSEs need to be conducted if this is a good number

COSMIC II Improvements - Quality (rx & ant.)

• Better antenna - Beam steering for better gain (LT bias reduction)

• Multiple correlators - maximized signal strength for lower troposphere tracking (LT bias reduction)

• USO - allows zero-differencing (noise reduction in stratosphere)

• Additional Frequencies (L5 + new Galileo bands) potential for improved iono. correction / orbit improvement

COSMIC II Improvements - Quality (s/c)

• Better attitude control & knowledge (reduce satellite velocity errors - better stratospheric data)

• Antenna PCV specification relative to s/c center of mass

• Need to avoid SNR drops observed during COSMIC - not fully understood yet - should monitor antenna temperatures

• Optimize the constellation - 800 km? 12 planes? 6 low-latitude orbit(s) ? Inclination 72 degrees ?

• Additional payloads ? Magnetometer, Langmuir probe, Laser reflector, ….

COSMIC II Improvements - Algorithms

• Weather– Reduce effect of noise and non-spherical irregularities on

retrieved profiles– Alternative initialization maybe develop bending angle

climatology – RH processing in tropopause region?

• Climate– Inverting zonal averaged bending angles– Optimize different initialization for weather and climate

processing

• Ionosphere– Horizontal gradients, localizing scintillation, tomography ..

COSMIC II Improvements - New Data Products (Level III)

• ABL (already done but different approaches + quantity will change the impact of this product)

• Characterization of moist tropospheric convection• Tropopause (Height, Temp, Structure ?) • Scintillation product (S4, lat , lon, height) ?• Dry Turbulence (not yet demonstrated)• Characterization of Gravity waves - in stratosphere and

ionosphere?• E-layer characterization

New Science that we will purse with the improved COSMIC II

observations

– Weather / Storm forecasting– Climate monitoring / Model evaluation – Ionospheric forecasting and monitoring– “New phenomena” – …….