CITY of VIRGINIA BEACHRESORT AREA STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN (RASAP)

AGENDA

City of Virginia Beach Sea Level Rise Study Brief - CJ Bodnar (20 minute presentation + 10 minute Q&A)

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Kevin is a leader in community development, economic and real estate development finance, planning, and placemaking.

Kevin’s work as Executive Director of the Walnut Hills Redevelopment Foundation (WHRF) from 2011-2018 received local honors and was featured in national publications such as The Huff-ington Post. It was there where he used his diverse background in storytelling and community planning to help a struggling organization develop a new brand and mission and grow from a staff of one contracted employee to seven full-time employees and several interns. Additionally, he grew the foundation’s budget ten-fold and developed a more sustainable and diverse revenue stream. Kevin has led teams in the creation and implementation of dozens of projects ranging from small creative placemaking activities to multi-million dollar real estate deals. These projects have included several public and private partners and a diverse set of public financing tools such as Tax Increment Financing, public loans/grants, and Historic Tax Credits.

Kevin earned a Bachelor’s degree in journalism from Missouri State University and received a Mas-ter’s Degree in Community Planning from the University of Cincinnati with a specialization in urban real estate and neighborhood development. Kevin serves locally on the Board of The Community Development Corporations Association of Greater Cincinnati, Cincinnati Neighborhood Business Districts United, is a member of the Urban Land Institute and was recently named to the 40 under 40 list by The Cincinnati Business Courier.

KEVIN WRIGHTPRINCIPAL, DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS AND STRATEGY

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

» Executive Director, WHRF Cincinnati, OH

» Five Points Alley Cincinnati, OH

» Cincinnati Street Food Festival Cincinnati, OH

» Old Kentucky Makers Market Bellevue, KY

» Trevarren Flats Cincinnati, OH

» Paramount Square Cincinnati, OH

EDUCATION

» Bachelor of Arts, Journalism Missouri State University

» Masters of Community Planning, University of Cincinnati

ACCREDITATIONS

» ULI

» CNU

» CDCA, Board Member

» CNBDU, Board Memberkevin@buildwithyard.comLinkedINTwitter

RASAP Steering Committee - working session• Review & discuss individual edits to the draft• Form consensus around edits and revisions to text and graphics

Steering Committee AgendaMonday, October 7th [2:00pm-4:30pm]

2:00

Schedule/Next Steps4:15

2:30

• RASAP Steering Committee Meeting – Thursday, 11/07/19 – 10 :00 – 12:00 @ CVB Board Room

Sea Level WiseCity of Virginia Beach Sea Level Rise Adaptation StudyCity of Virginia Beach, RASAP Steering Committee

C.J. Bodnar, P.E.Public Works, Stormwater Engineering CenterOctober 7, 2019

Moody’s Questionnaire to VB (2014)• Does the existing/future CIP include spending

for mitigation or resiliency?

• Has your governing body discussed the capital or financial implications of rising sea levels?

• Has there been an estimate on potential impacts from rising sea levels or flooding?

• Please discuss how flooding has impacted the city’s budget and how flood mitigation efforts may impact future budgets?

• Have there been any zoning /long-term planning adjustments downtown and along the waterfront to mitigate future flooding impacts?

• What is management’s current view on the potential impact/vulnerabilities in your community from rising sea levels and a heightened risk of extreme weather events?

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Ongoing Studies• Comprehensive Sea Level Rise and

Recurrent Flooding Study• Assessing existing and future flood

vulnerabilities and identifying strategies to ensure our city is resilient to future flooding events

• Master Drainage Study• Detailed inventory and performance

assessment of the City’s stormwater system

• Stormwater Master Plan• Identification and prioritization of needed

improvements to stormwater system

Project Website: http://www.vbgov.com/pwSLR

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• Higher coastal water levels diminish stormwater system performance

• Coastal Flooding

• Stormwater Conveyance

• Combined Flooding

Combined Impact on Stormwater Analysis

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Comprehensive Sea Level Rise and Recurrent Flood Study

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Study Goal and OutcomesGoal: Produce information and strategies that will enable Virginia Beach to establish long-term resilience to sea level rise and associated recurrent flooding

Outcomes: • Establish a full understanding of flood risk and anticipated changes over planning and

infrastructure time horizons• Develop risk-informed strategies, including engineered protection and policy to reduce

short and long-term impacts• Produce City-wide and watershed “action plans” for strategy implementation• Engage a fine-tuned public outreach process to advance resilience initiatives

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Top 10%

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Observed Acceleration

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Boon et al. 2018

https://www.vims.edu/research/products/slrc/index.php

VB SLR Planning Scenarios

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Sourced from: Consistent with:

Timeline of Activities

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Planning• Scenarios• Conceptual

model

Study Progression• Grant award• Hazard and risk

assessment• Essential analysis

to inform design• Stormwater

coordination• Policy menu

Strategy Focus• Structural Alternatives

• City-wide concepts• Performance• Down-selection

• Policy refinement and rankings

Synthesis• Neighborhood and

site alternatives• Full Draft

Adaptation Strategy

• Stakeholder outreach and input

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Hazard and Risk Assessment

Hazard and Risk-driven Decision-Making11

Focus Areas for Adaptation

88% of City’s Risk

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Consequences of Future Without Action

$26 $77

$329

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

Baseline Scenario 1.5 ft SLR Scenario 3 ft SLR Scenario

Annualized Losses (Millions)

3x increase 12x increaseCompared to Today: 13

Informing Design• Rainfall/surge correlation

• >50% of rainfall events occur during elevated water levels

• Joint-probability of rainfall/storm surge• Concurrent rainfall/surge design values

• Regional Precipitation Trends• Atlas 14 outdated• Heavy rainfall increasing, 20% needed over

design life cycle

• Probable maximum event precipitation• Design “check storm”

• Wind Tides • Water level response to wind tide conditions• Minimum design tailwaters

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Stormwater Design Standards

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Public Works Design Standards Manual, 2019• Major Design Standard Changes to Address Recurrent Flooding and Sea

Level Rise:• Requirement to use EPA SWMM software modelling tool for designs with Drainage Area > 20 Ac.• Updated Revised Rainfall Depths Based on Future Precipitation Analysis (20% more)• Starting Boundary Conditions• Specific Requirements Relative to Hydraulic Grade Line• Requirement to use City Models Developed of all (31) Drainage Basins• Requirement to address Sea Level Rise• Requirement to address Groundwater Base Flow in Wet Ponds

• Draft Manual Complete as of May 1st

• Public Comment Period: May 1st through August 30th

• Engineering/Development Community Public Meeting Held August 21st

Draft Document can be found at: https://www.vbgov.com/government/departments/public-works/standards-specs/Pages/default.aspx

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Adaptation Strategies

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Policy Design Protection

Integrated Solution

Adaptation Strategies• Policy Response Document

• City-wide Flood Protection Strategies

• Individual Site-Level Strategies

• Natural and Nature-based Solutions

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Policy Document

• What it represents: • Guidelines for instilling best practices to reduce

long-term flood risk• Starting place for evaluation and

implementation by City• Unique reflection of City staff perspective and

priorities

• Not a prescriptive document to be followed “to the letter”

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Stormwater Design Standard Outputs

Existing Condition 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.2 6.7 8.51.5 ft SLR 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.7 7.3 7.7 8.2 10.03.0 ft SLR 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.5 9.2 9.6 10.1 12.0

Existing Condition 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.3 6.9 7.4 9.31.5 ft SLR 4.7 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.8 8.4 8.9 10.83.0 ft SLR 6.4 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.8 9.7 10.3 10.8 12.8

Existing Condition 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.1 8.51.5 ft SLR 4.7 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.4 8.0 8.6 10.03.0 ft SLR 6.4 7.1 7.4 7.8 8.5 9.3 9.9 10.5 12.0

Existing Condition 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.3 6.8 7.3 8.71.5 ft SLR 5.1 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.8 8.3 8.8 10.23.0 ft SLR 7.2 7.7 8.2 8.6 9.2 10.1 10.7 11.2 12.8

Existing Condition - - - 1.8 2.4 3.4 4.2 4.9 6.41.5 ft SLR - - - 3.3 3.9 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.93.0 ft SLR - - - 6.7 7.6 9.0 10.1 11.1 13.2

Existing Condition - - - 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 4.21.5 ft SLR - - - 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.73.0 ft SLR - - - 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.1 8.8 10.1

Existing Condition - - - 1.3 1.6 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.91.5 ft SLR - - - 2.8 3.1 4.3 4.9 5.4 6.43.0 ft SLR - - - 4.6 5.0 6.3 6.9 7.5 8.5

Existing Condition 2.8 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.1 7.9 10.31.5 ft SLR 4.3 5.1 5.6 6.2 7.3 8.0 8.6 9.4 11.83.0 ft SLR 5.9 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.9 9.6 10.2 11.0 13.4

Table J-12Design Tidal Elevations for Virginia Beach

All Elevations in feet relative to the North American Vertical Datum (NAVD) of 1988

Location Design Level 1-YR 2-YR 3-YR 5-YR 10-YR 25-YR 50-YR

1. All elevations sourced from direct sampling and statistical analysis of the distribution of water elevations in each watershed

100-YR 500-YR

Lynnhaven Bay & River, Eastern Branch

Lynnhaven Bay & River, Incl. all areas other than Eastern

Chesapeake Bay

Atlantic Ocean & Rudee Inlet

Back Bay, North of Beggars Bridge CreekBack Bay, South of Beggars Bridge Creek

North Landing River

Elizabeth River

Notes:

2. Lynnhaven, Elizabeth River, and Atlantic Ocean elevations were sourced from the 2015 FEMA Flood Insurance Study

3. Back Bay and North Landing River elevations were sourced from CIP 7-030, PWCN-15-0014, WO2A

4. The values do not represent potential wind-driven water levels in the Back Bay and North Landing River

5. The 5-year return period should be used as a minimum elevation for design in Back Bay and North Landing River due to wind tides.

6. Conditions related to a 3-ft rise in sea level include non-linear increases derived from numerical modeling completed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program

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Flood Reduction Strategies

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Natural and Nature-based

City-wide Structural Flood Protection Strategies

• Objective: • Close coastal flood pathways into

city for maximum flood reduction benefit

• Product• Conceptual solutions• Informs direction of detailed efforts

• Metrics Assessed: • Cost• Cost-benefits• Flood reduction benefits

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Location Renders – Lynnhaven

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Location Renders – Lynnhaven

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Location Renders – Oceanfront

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Location Renders – Oceanfront

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Location Renders – Rudee Inlet

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Location Renders – Rudee Inlet

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Annualized Losses With/Without Implementation

• Losses updated for BCR • Allowable inclusion of social

impacts/benefits

• Mental stress/anxiety

• Loss of productivity

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Flood Reduction Strategies

Natural and Nature-based

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Individual Site-Level Strategies

• Objective: • Identify where beneficial,

how to compliment structural strategies, opportunities to introduce green/open space

• Product: • Map and summary of where cost

beneficial

• Metrics Assessed: • Cost and benefits• Parcel, aggregate parcel, watershed,

city-wide levels

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Natural and Nature-based Strategies

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Natural and Nature-Based Strategies• What natural and nature-based features (NNBF) could be implemented in

Virginia Beach, in combination with other measures, to reduce flood risk?

Integrated approach that employs the full array of flood risk mitigation strategies by combining NNBF with more conventional flood defense systems and nonstructural policy measures.

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Natural and Nature Based – Suite of StrategiesNon-structural methods focus on creating or enhancing the dominant natural

features already present and contributing to flood risk reduction

Beach Nourishment Marsh Restoration, Creation, or Enhancement

Forest Restoration, Creation, or Enhancement

Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Restoration Oyster Reef Restoration

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Nature Based – Suite of StrategiesNature-based (or hybrid) techniques integrate soft or 'green' natural and nature-based measures with harder materials for

added structure and stability.

Living Shorelines Living Breakwaters Ecologically-Enhanced Revetments

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Natural and Nature-basedStrategy Evaluation1. Identify potentially suitable NNBFs2. Assess suitability of NNBFs within

the City’s 4 major watersheds3. Evaluate application of strategies

based on case studies (local and regional)

4. Estimate flood risk reduction potential of NNBF strategies

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NFWF National Coastal Resilience Fund• NFWF is a non-profit organization

dedicated to:• “Sustaining, restoring, and enhancing the

nation’s fish, wildlife, plants and habitats for current and future generations”.

• The NFWF National Coastal Resilience Fund makes investments to:

• “Restore and strengthen natural systems so they can protect coastal communities from the impacts of storms, floods, and other natural hazards and enable them to recover more quickly, while also enhancing habitats for important fish and wildlife populations”.

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Project Team• City of Virginia Beach

• Dewberry

• Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries

• U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Back Bay National Wildlife Refuge

• Old Dominion University

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Proposed Project Site and Conceptual Design

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Public Engagement

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Spring 2019 Public Engagement• Meeting Dates and Locations

• May 29, 2019 – Virginia Aquarium• May 30, 2019 – Kempsville High School• July 29, 2019 – Creeds Elementary School• July 30, 2019 – Thalia Elementary School• July 31, 2019 – Kellam High School• August 3, 2019 – Cox High School

• City to promote by:• Social Media – Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Posts on

Nextdoor Communities and City web sites, News Media Alerts and E-mail “blasts”

• Flyers were posted at City Libraries and Recreation Centers

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Next Steps

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Begin Feasibility Analysis

Submit Adaptation Strategy Report to NOAA

Incorporate Public Input

City Review & Stakeholder Engagement

Draft Adaptation Strategy Report

Re-evaluate and Finalize Alternatives

Neighborhood Protection

Public Engagement

March 2020

November/December 2019

January/February 2020

July/August 2019

Natural and Nature-based

Discussion

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