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Transcript of Kevin barker citywire lake garda - l&c & formatted
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund
October 2012
Kevin Barker
Senior Equity Strategist
Strictly confidential For Professional Clients only
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
1
Key points
European economies remain challenged with further
bad news to come
Valuations attractive in Europe, with wide stock
selection opportunities
Europe boasts many strong businesses with global
franchises and access to growth
Limited shorting increases active share and ability
to generate returns
5 star European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund well
placed to perform strongly in volatile markets
1
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
2 2 2
Outlook for European Equities
Policy response has supported risk assets, but underlying
economic issues remain
Southern Europe lacks competitiveness and is heavily indebted
‘Core’ Europe growth prospects stronger
Bias to industry leaders with access to growth, wary of earnings
risk
Equities attractively valued, despite rally in 2012 YTD
Hurdles remain, but opportunity set is excellent
Valuation spreads extremely wide in Europe
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
3 3
Central banks providing unprecedented stimulus
Source: Citigroup (Index, 01.01.2007 = 100). As at August 2012.
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
ECB balance sheet
“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.
And believe me, it will be enough…” Mario Draghi, ECB President. July 2012
European intervention continues
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
4 4
(% of GDP) Targeted savings
for year Achieved Shortfall
Greece 2.1 1.7 -0.4
Portugal 3.0 0.0 -3.0
Ireland 0.7 0.9 +0.2
Spain 2.6 -0.2 -2.8
Italy 2.2 0.6 -1.6
4
Southern Europe remains extremely uncompetitive
Little progress has been made in achieving
fiscal savings
– Restructuring will take time
Southern Europe is heavily indebted, with high
labour costs and inflexible job markets
Few indications of economic recovery
– Austerity to act as a break on growth in the
medium term
Little progress has been made with fiscal savings
Source: National Financial Statistics and Stability Programmes, Commerzbank Research.
31 August 2012.
The periphery faces significant headwinds to growth
Growth outlook has worsened in Southern Europe
Source: Citigroup. September 2012.
2012 GDP growth estimates as at:
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
5
Northern Europe better placed to navigate the crisis
Growth prospects notably stronger in northern
Europe’s economies
Lower levels of debt and unemployment,
stronger budgetary positions
Favoured names include Unilever, Swedbank,
Telenor, SAP, Sampo
Stronger growth prospects, lower debt levels
‘Core’ Europe (91% of MSCI Europe)
Overweight northern Europe, significantly underweight the
periphery
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. 30 September 2012 Peripheral Europe (9% of MSCI Europe)
96.4% of your
portfolio
3.6% of your
portfolio
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
6 6
Global businesses based in Europe able to prosper
Many long-term winners with established
international franchises listed in Europe
Half of your portfolio’s sales from outside
Europe
Overseas earners benefitting from
weaker Euro
Favoured names include Prudential,
Schneider, SAP, BASF
Long-term winners trading at attractive prices
The Euro has been weak…
Source: Datastream. 30 September 2012
36 month performance against:
Your portfolio’s sales exposure 50% outside Europe
Portfolio sales exposure (%) by major region
22% 50% 25% US Europe
EM
JPY
-23.8%
USD
-11.5%
GBP
-12.7%
CNY
-18.6%
KRW
-17.1%
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. 30 September 2012
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
European dividend yield
European real bond yield
7 7
Europe’s valuation case is attractive
Compelling vs. other regions and bonds
Yield: European equities cheap vs. bonds
Source: UBS Investment Bank. Data as at 30 September 2012 Source: Datastream, IBES consensus. Data as at 30 September 2012.
P/E ratio: Europe cheap vs. US market
0
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20
30
40
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60
Nov-79 Nov-85 Nov-91 Nov-97 Nov-03 Nov-09
MSCI Europe
MSCI Europe Average (1979 - present )
S&P 500
S&P Avg (1881 - present )
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
8 8 8
Stock selection opportunities are high
Europe Composite Valuation Dispersion
Very high
Very low
Normal
Source: Bernstein. 30 September 2012. Valuation dispersion measure is based on Book/Price, Sales/Price, Cash Flow/Price and Dividend yield metrics.
Low
High
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
9
Our conclusions
Markets will see bouts of volatility as unresolved
issues flare up from time to time
Great stock selection opportunities due to poor
sentiment and good valuations
An active approach is essential to avoid problem
areas
An approach with limited shorting provides
greater flexibility to capture volatility
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007 2009 2011
Volatility Index (VIX)
Source: Datastream. Data as at 30 September 2012
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
10 10
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund
Equity SICAV with multiple share classes
Typical M ax posit ions
Individual stock weights
Longs 1.0 – 4.0% 10% over benchmark
Shorts 0.5 – 1.5% 3% (absolute)
Beta policy 0.8 – 1.2
Note: Please note that historical active risk is not a guide to the future. Active risk levels will vary according to market conditions and our views ; typical active risk data is indicative only. Active risk is an
ex-ante forecast calculated using BARRA or other suitable system based on the final valuations of the last working day of each month. Active risk levels are reported to clients on a quarterly basis.
Investment goals
Seek to outperform MSCI Europe Index by 300 – 500 basis points pa over a market cycle
How we aim to achieve this goal:
Typical active risk: Up to 15% (average 7.3% since inception)
Number of equity holdings: Approximately 50 to 100 stocks
Normal exposures: 100 – 150% long, 0 – 50% short
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
11
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund: Key facts
Actively managed equity fund invested mainly in shares of European countries
– Including stocks of small/medium sized capitalized companies
Largely unconstrained portfolio, which can fully exploit the market opportunities
– Can use investment strategies which allow us to take advantage of declining stock prices (short
selling)
– Benchmark agnostic
Typically 70 – 130% market exposure with 50 – 100 stocks
A different approach…
Aim is to have significantly better performance than equity indices over time and
not significantly correlated to core equities strategies
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
12 12
Difference between our Fund and hedge funds
Equity unconstrained strategy
Clearly part of an investor’s equity allocation
While some managers may have goal of limited
losses during major market sell-offs, the aim is
to provide better than equity index returns over
time
Investors should expect volatility that is similar
to equity indices, which will result in substantial
losses when equity markets fall
Method can include use of shorting, leverage
and use of derivatives
Hedge fund strategies
Objective is provide absolute returns with clear
goal of capital preservation and returns
uncorrelated with other major asset classes
Generally not benchmarked or may be
benchmarked to cash returns
Method can include use of shorting, leverage
and use of derivatives
The overriding aim of equity unconstrained strategies is to provide substantially
better than equity index returns over time
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
13 13
Performance of Fund since inception
Relative performance as at 30 September 2012
Source: UBS Global Asset Management
Note: Past performance is not a guide to the future.
Figures gross of fees
1 Since inception 1 June 2007
European Opportunity Unconstrained vs. MSCI Europe EUR
% return (to Sept 2012)
UBS Global Asset Management
MSCI Europe (net dividends
reinvested) Difference
3 months 12.2 7.2 +5.0
1 year 35.6 22.3 +13.3
3 years 13.9 6.4 +7.6
5 years 2.9 -3.9 +6.8
Since Inception1 2.2 -4.3 +6.6
Since inception
Active risk: 7.3%
Standard deviation:
– Fund: 17.9%
– Benchmark: 18.2%
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Data to 30 September 2012
Note: Please note that historical active risk is not a guide to the future. Active risk levels will vary
according to market conditions and our views.
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
Jun
-07
Sep
-07
Dec-
07
Mar-
08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Dec-
08
Mar-
09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Dec-
09
Mar-
10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Dec-
10
Mar-
11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec-
11
Mar-
12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Unconst rained vs. MSCI Europe
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
14 14
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund
Performance: value added on both longs and shorts
Since inception1:
+6.5% contribution from shorts (23% of total)
+21.5% contribution from longs (77% of total)
Shorts contributed more in proportion to allocation in portfolio (average 19%)
7.15.0
6.57.1
26.6
21.5
14.2
31.6
28.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1Y 3Y 5Y
Exce
ss R
etu
rn C
on
trib
uti
on
(%
)
Short Long Total
Source: Wilshire
Notes: Data to 31 May 2012. Returns not annualized. Returns relative to MSCI Europe.
1 31 May 2007
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
15 15
Strong performance in “up” and “down” markets
Protecting on the downside while keeping with benchmark in up markets
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Data to 31 May 2012
Note: Please note that historical standard deviation is not a guide to the future.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance figures are gross of fees. Please see attached disclosure information.
1 Data to 31 May 2012. Inception date European Opportunity Unconstrained 31/05/07. The returns shown above are based on currently available information and are subject to revision.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
UBS European Opportunity Unconst rained MSCI Europe (net )
+10.1% value
added in up market
+13.0% value
added in down
market
+7.2% value added
in down market
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
16
Down Market
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Data to 30 September 2012. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Down market defined as period from a relative peak to trough.1 31 May 2004. In EUR. 2 31 May 2007. In EUR
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
May-0
4Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May-0
5Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May-0
6Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May-0
7Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May-0
8Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May-0
9Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May-1
0Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May-1
1Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May-1
2Sep
-12
Pan Europe Conc. vs. MSCI Europe
Consistent track record in different environments
Product leverages off long-term success
Pan Europe Concentrated/MSCI Europe wealth relative
A strong team delivering performance for 8 years
Value added since inception1 = +4.0%pa
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
Jun
-07
Sep
-07
Dec-0
7
Mar-0
8
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Dec-0
8
Mar-0
9
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Dec-0
9
Mar-1
0
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Dec-1
0
Mar-1
1
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec-1
1
Mar-1
2
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Uncons vs. MSCI Europe
European Opp. Unconstrained/MSCI Europe wealth relative
Value added since inception2 = +6.6%pa
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
17 17
Experienced team that delivers results
The Concentrated Alpha Equities team
Team
Portfolio
Management
Equity
Strategists
Technical Support/
Execution
Leveraging UBS’s
Global resources
Legal &
Compliance Trading
Risk
Management
Distribution Company Access
Kevin Barker Max Anderl Rob Howard
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. October 2012
Alison Charles Jeremy Leung David Legg
External resources Independent
research
Financial
data sources
Individual industry
contacts
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
18 18
Concentrated Alpha: Investment Process
Idea Generation Research Portfolio Construction
Constant communication with our selected
information sources flag potential investment themes
and ideas
Potential ideas are placed
through the rigorous assessment
of the three circles
Once an idea has passed through the 3-
circle process, we compare against our
existing holdings and adjust our holdings
if there is an opportunity
Portfolio Client
100-130 stocks
(long-short)
Fundamental
Quantitative Qualitative
Portfolio
14,000 companies
covered by HOLT
1,800 internal
valuations by
analysts globally
4,500 quantitative
profiles from five
quantitative models
8,000 corporate
governance
profiles
Proven individual
contacts1
• Risk aware
• High active share
• Benchmark agnostic
Disciplined review process every
3 – 6 months for each holding
Stock ideas
• Company A
• Company B
• Company C
1 Proven individual contacts (strategists, analysts, fixed income investors, asset allocators)
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
19 19
The Concentrated Alpha investment process
Diverse range of independent
information sources including:
– Global fundamental analysis
– Global quantitative analysis
– Corporate governance
– Corporate activists
– Global strategists
Disciplined and simple approach but
not dogmatic – must be open to
admitting mistakes and to new ideas
Team based but not committee driven
Investment thesis for every decision
reviewed by “independent eye”
Aiming to protect the downside
Fundamental
research
(eg internal & external
recommendations, discounted
cash flow model, company
management visits)
Quantitative
research
(eg multi-factor
models)
Qualitative
research
(e.g. strategists,
corporate activists,
corporate governance)
Portfolio
Concentration
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
20
Long example: Sage
Source: UBS Global Asset Management
Quantitative
research
Qualitative
research
Portfolio holding
Cheap in HOLT, high alpha versus the market
Good corporate governance with share buybacks
Positive momentum and quality with
average value
Unleveraged, stable, non extended returns
High percentage of recurring revenues
Potential take over target
Expansion into EM
Fundamental research
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
21 21
“Short” Investing; adding further value
European economies will remain challenged presenting opportunities to capitalise on
weak companies with poor business models
Shorts are selected through the same proven investment process – we have shown
added value in shorting over a long period since inception
Shorts can grow in size when they go against you – we integrate into our daily checks a
stop loss provision that flags up negative contributors which are reviewed by the team
daily
Shorts have liquidity risks – we regularly monitor the market for short interest and supply
to borrow and have never been squeezed
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
22
Short example: Company A
Source: UBS Global Asset Management
Quantitative
research
Qualitative
research
Portfolio holding
Below cost of capital returns
Declining asset turnover and margin pressure
Poor momentum and quality
Above average value
High pension deficit
Increasing competition from Chinese players
Fundamental research
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
23 23
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund
Monthly net gross exposure data to end August 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sum of Long Sum of Short Sum of Gross Sum of Net
Source: UBS Global Asset Management
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
24 24
…a holistic approach
Source: UBS Global Asset Management
Note: Please note that historical active risk is not a guide to the future. Active risk levels will vary according to market conditions and our views.
1 31 May 2007
Taking risk when rewarded for it
Awareness of low volatility and leverage
Active risk of UBS European Opportunity
Unconstrained 7.3% since inception1 to 30 September
2012
Active share with index 117% as at 30 September
2012
Results
Risk parameters
Risk systems
Price paid
Corporate Governance
Leverage and industry structure
Use of uncorrelated information sources
How we deal with risk…
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
25 25
How we view your portfolio online
European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund, 30 September 2012
Major contributors to
risk using stock
level, sectoral and
risk model factors
Headline active risk:
8.2%
(key risk measure)
Risk analysis using our
internal risk model
Exposures to market cap weighted
sectors/countries/size factor portfolios
Source: UBS Global Asset Management/GEVS
Note: Please note that historical active risk is not a guide to the future. Active risk levels will vary according to market conditions and our views.
Further analysis drills deeper into the portfolio
Beta: 0.8 (sensitivity to
market)
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
26 26
Sector posit ions %
Insurance +7.8
Pharma, Bio & Life Sciences +7.4
Sof tware & Services +6.3
Household & Personal +2.9
Comms & Pro Services +2.9
Capital Goods -4.1
Materials -5.3
Energy -5.7
Ut ilit ies -6.8
Banks -8.3
European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund: Current views
Overweight strong franchises with valuation
support and financial flexibility
– Unilever, GlaxoSmithKline
Underweight compromised defensives
– Utilities
Favouring asset-light over capital-intensive
companies
– Real cost of capital to remain high
Underweight companies where profitability is
extended and expensive
– Materials, Capital Goods
Focusing on areas where capacity is
consolidating or leaving the market
30 September 2012
Stock positions
Source: UBS Global Asset Management
Posit ive (overw eight) %
GlaxoSmithKline 3.4
Qinet iq 2.9
Sampo 2.8
Sage 2.7
Legal & General 2.6
Negat ive (underw eight)
Banco Santander -2.0
Vodafone -2.1
HSBC -2.5
Ast razeneca -2.7
Nest le -3.1
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
27
Summary
Highly active portfolio, shorting helping increase active share and capitalise on volatility
Investment process (“Three Circle” approach) helps to deliver consistent returns through use of
uncorrelated sources
Successful approach that has worked in varied market conditions
27
APPENDIX
Additional information
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
29 29
Fund name: UBS (Lux) Equity SICAV – Europ. Opportunity Unconstrained (EUR) P-Acc
Fund type: SICAV, part I
Fund domicile: Luxembourg
Custodian: UBS (Luxembourg) S.A.
Currency of account: EUR
Benchmark MSCI Europe (net div. reinv.)
Accounting year ends: 31 May
Share class inception: June 14, 2012
Subscriptions / redemptions: Daily / daily
Distribution: reinvestment
Flat fee: 2.04%
Issue commission: 1%
EU savings tax: Not affected
Swing pricing: Yes
Securities no. / ISIN: 14543379 / LU0723564463
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund
Technical details
Data as of 12.06.12
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
30 30
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund
3 year performance vs. peers
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Risk % std dev
Retu
rn %
Peers UBS European Opportunity Unconst rained P-acc EUR MSCI Europe
Source: Morningstar, data as of 30 September 2012
Note: Based on Morningstar European Equity Large Blend Universe. Net of fees using P share class. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
31 31
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund
Returns in aggregate: shorts consistently underperformed
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Since inception date 31 May 2007.
Data to 31 May 2012
-4.9%
49.7%
-11.9%
-27.1%
22.4%
-34.2%
-11.0%
27.6%
-27.4%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 year 3 years 5 years (since incept ion)
Longs Shorts Universe
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
32 32
Taking opportunities across the spectrum
…but selectively weight according to the environment
Monitor all three circles…
Quantitative
research
(e.g. multi-factor
models)
Qualitative
research
(e.g. venture
capital contacts,
strategists)
Portfolio
Concentration
Less exposure 2006/2010
Valuation spreads low
Increased exposure 2008/2009
Valuation spreads wide and falling
Less exposure in 2007/2008
Leverage high, valuation spreads low
Increased exposure 2009+
Leveraged buy-outs models attractive
Private equity / strategists warn on
high leverage and low valuation spreads in 2007
Signaling capitulation in February 2009
Free cash flow yield and dividend yield versus 10y bond
yield points to M+A and stable dividend growers in
2011/2012
Fundamental research
(e.g. internal
recommendations,
corporate governance,
company management
visits)
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
33 33
Global and multi-faceted approach
…but specific targeting is key Source: UBS Global Asset Management. September 2012
Diverse information sources are necessary…
More than 14,000 companies in Holt
Selective internal & external analysts
More than 4,000 quantitative profiles of
global companies, biweekly refreshed
data
From 5 different data providers
More than 8,000 companies covered by
Governance Metrics and ISS; more than
300,000 individuals covered by Boardex
Contacts with global, US, Asian and
European specific strategists
Contacts with bond strategists and
asset allocators and corporate activists
Exchange of information with buy side investors
Fundamental
Quantitative Qualitative
Portfolio
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
34 34
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained Fund
-5.2
-1.2
7.16.1
2.5
18.6
-2.2
7.1
21.5
2.21.8 1.5
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0A
dd
ed
valu
e (
bp
s)Short Long
M ay-07 to Jun-08
M ay-08 to Jun-09
M ay-09 to Jun-10
M ay-10 to Jun-11
M ay-11 to Jun-12
Since inception1
Shorts in aggregate (100%) -14.1% -37.4% 37.0% 21.8% -27.1% -34.2%
Longs in aggregate (100%) -15.4% -30.5% 35.2% 16.6% -4.9% -11.9%
MSCI Europe -15.5% -32.7% 21.2% 18.3% -11.0% -27.4%
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Wilshire
The returns shown above are relative to MSCI Europe and based on currently available information and are subject to revision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance
figures are gross of fees. Please see attached disclosure information.
1 Inception as of May 31, 2007
1
Performance of longs and shorts: As of May 31, 2012 (in EUR)
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
35 35 35
Spain remains an area for concern
Outlook for economic growth poor due to
structural challenges
– Real GDP growth of -3.2% predicted for 2013
Spanish unemployment level at 25%
– 52% of under 25s out of work
House prices down -25% since 2008
Troubled financials sector a key issue
– Capital ratios short of regulatory requirements
– Banks have €156bn of loans at risk of not being
repaid (9% of all loans)
Unemployment has tripled since 2006
Source: Eurostat, August 2012.
Eurozone’s 4th largest economy poised for a bail out
Spanish banking sector undercapitalised
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. 30 September 2012.
Source: Citigroup, BBC. 30 September 2012. “…the battle for the Euro will be fought in Spain” Luis de Guindos, Spain’s finance minister, May 2012
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
36 36
Performance: Pan European Equity Concentrated Composite
GIPS Disclosure
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
37 37
Performance: European Opportunity Unconstrained (130/30)
GIPS Disclosure
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY
38 38
Disclaimer
UBS Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd is a subsidiary of UBS AG.
Registered in England, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority: UBS Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd, UBS Global Asset Management
Funds Ltd, UBS Global Asset Management Life Ltd.
Telephone calls may be recorded.
© UBS 2012. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved.
This document is for Professional Clients only. It is not to be distributed to or relied upon by Retail Clients under any circumstances.
This material supports the presentation(s) given. It is not intended to be read in isolation and may not provide a full explanation of all the topics that were presented
and discussed. Care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the content, but no responsibility is accepted for any errors or omissions.
Please note that past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may
not get back the original amount invested.
This document is a marketing communication. Any market or investment views expressed are not intended to be investment research. The document has not
been prepared in line with the FSA requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on
dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
The information contained in this document should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security and the opinions expressed are
those of UBS Global Asset Management and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, there can be no assurance that any trends described in this
document will continue or that forecasts will occur because economic and market conditions change frequently.
This document does not create any legal or contractual obligation with UBS Global Asset Management.
The recipient agrees that this information shall remain strictly confidential where it relates to the Investment Manager's business. The prior consent of UBS Global
Asset Management (UK) Ltd should be obtained prior to the disclosure of commercially sensitive information to a third party (excluding the professional advisors of
the recipient).
Information reasonably deemed to be commercially sensitive and obtained from UBS Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd should not be disclosed. This information
is supplied with a reasonable expectation that it will not be made public. If you receive a request under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 for information obtained
from UBS Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd we ask that you consult with us. We also request that any information obtained from UBS Global Asset Management
(UK) Ltd in your possession is destroyed as soon as it is no longer required.