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![Page 1: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Kevin AndersonResearch director
Tyndall Centre’s energy programme University of Manchester
25th July 2008
UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions and the EU ETS
Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
![Page 2: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
My position …
• Ambivalent about flying, driving, nuclear
power etc.
• Concerned about climate change… and the science is very clear here - we need an urgent & radical reduction in our carbon dioxide emissions if we are to “avoid dangerous climate change”
![Page 3: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Talk outline
The Climate Change Context
What is dangerous climate change?
Reframing the debate … from long term targets to emission pathways
“It’s energy demand stupid”
The Critical role of Aviation (& shipping …)
Aviation growth within a low carbon pathway?
Responding to the challenge … the EU ETS – too little too late?
![Page 4: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Climate Change Context
![Page 5: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What is dangerous climate change?
UK & EU define this as 2C
Links to total quantity of CO2 in atmosphere- measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv)
Currently 380ppmv (~430 CO2e) & increasing 2-3ppmv p.a. -
280ppmv before industrial revolution
Still feasible to keep below 450ppmv CO2 (~500 CO2e) - i.e. 70% chance of exceeding 2C 50% chance of exceeding 3C
![Page 6: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What are the ‘correct’ emission targets for 2C ?
UK & EU have long term reduction targets- e.g. UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050
But CO2 stays in atmosphere for approx. 100years
Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays & will be added to by tomorrows
So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading
![Page 7: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
the final % reduction in carbon has little
relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change
(e.g. 2C)
Put bluntly …
What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon
![Page 8: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
How does this scientifically-credible
way of thinking, alter the challenge
we face?
![Page 9: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
A bank-account analogy
We know:
.. how much money we have in the bank between 2000-2050 (the carbon budget)
![Page 10: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
~ 4.8 billion tonnes of carbon
between 2000-2050
the UK’s budget is
For a 30% chance of “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 11: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1. What are the emissions between 2000 & today?
2. What emissions are we locked into in the
immediate future?
From this two questions arise
![Page 12: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
… emissions between 2000-2006
were
~ 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon… i.e. we’ve used ¼ of our permitted
emissions for 50 years in around 6 years!
Answer 1
![Page 13: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Looking at this graphically …
Answer 2
![Page 14: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
Plot data from 2000 to 2006
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 15: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
Plot data from 2000 to 2006Dip due to September 11th
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 16: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
What about the next 6 years …
with more aviation & shipping
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 17: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
… emissions are likely to rise
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 18: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
4.8 billion tonnesCarbon
in the bank
But we only have
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 19: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012… locking the UK into dramatic
annual carbon reductions from
around 2012-2032
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 20: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
~ 9% p.a. reduction
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 21: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
What does this pathway say about
emission policies ?
![Page 22: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
mos
t em
issio
ns
are
relea
sed
in
next
15
yrs
2006
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 23: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
demand
supply&
demand
2006
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 24: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The Critical Role of Aviation Emissions
![Page 25: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
… how does aviation fit into this
pathway?
![Page 26: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
![Page 27: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Year
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Inde
x of
act
ivity
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
![Page 28: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Year
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Inde
x of
act
ivity
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4CAA Terminal passengers
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
![Page 29: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Year
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Inde
x of
act
ivity
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4CAA Terminal passengersCO2 emissions from aviation
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
September 11th events
impact growth
mean annual growth
7% pa
7% pa
Continuation of old trends
![Page 30: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Year
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Inde
x of
act
ivity
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4CO2 emissions from aviation
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
~11 MtC2006
Aviation CO2 is ~7% of UK emissions
over ½ that from cars
and growing much faster
![Page 31: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Looking at this growth graphically …
![Page 32: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
11 MtC
2006
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 33: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
11 MtC
2006
• if emissions grow at 5% until 2012(30% lower than historical mean)
• reducing to 3% from 2012-2050 (60% lower than historical mean)
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 34: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
15MtC2012
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 35: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
17MtC2012
25MtC2030
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 36: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
25MtC2030
over 60% of UK emissions
15MtC2012
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 37: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012Alternatively, if 7% continues until 2030…
56MtC2030
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
![Page 38: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
… and this doesn't include ‘uplift
factors’
![Page 39: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Omitting aviation negates the value
of emission targets
Many problems for aviation:
- Long lifetime of aircraft (2nd hand market)
- Kerosene lock-in for 30-60 years (bio-kerosene?)
- No rapidly penetrating step change technology
- Airport expansion stimulates unsustainable growth
- Additional climate warming effects
Interim conclusions
![Page 40: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
… and then there’s shipping
![Page 41: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Responding to the Challenge:EU ETS – too little too late?
![Page 42: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Principal mechanism proposed for Aviation
meeting its climate change challenge is the
price signal arising from EU ETS
![Page 43: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Tyndall examined the price signal for a suite of Aviation-
ETS scenarios
(“Aviation in a Low Carbon EU” - www.tyndall.ac.uk)
![Page 44: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
… used a set of ‘what if’ assumptions:
range of carbon prices
€50, €100 & €300 per tonne of CO2
applied over different time frames2012-2016; 2017-2030; 2031-2050
a range of baselines 1990, 2000 & 2005
![Page 45: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Assume all costs are passed onto passengers …
![Page 46: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Carbon price
London – Barcelona
London - Washington
London - Australia
€50-€100 €2-€15 €10-€60 €40-€120
Carbon supplement per passenger at start of ETS
![Page 47: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Carbon price
London – Barcelona
London - Washington
London - Australia
€300 €15-€40 €70-€155 €140-€310
Carbon supplement per passengerby 2017
![Page 48: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Aviation conclusions
Today’s aviation emissions are significant
Current aviation growth cannot be reconciled with the 2°C commitment
… little/no aviation growth is viable in a 450ppmv carbon budget
Moratorium on airport expansion prior to including aviation within EU ETS
Aviation is very likely to remain a ‘privileged’ sector
An order of magnitude increase in carbon price is necessary
An early baseline is essential
Indirect issues must be considered
Additional & substantial flanking instruments must be introduced
To conclude
![Page 49: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
… and finally
“We delude ourselves if our aspirations for a 2°C future
resides substantially in the current framing of the EU ETS and
the low-carbon technologies and practices that they may
engender. Whilst technology undoubtedly has an important
medium- and long-term role to play in reducing the carbon
intensity of aviation, it is negligent and irresponsible not to
engage with the sector’s short-term emissions growth. The
urgency with which the industry must make the transition to a
low carbon pathway leaves no option, but to instigate a radical
and immediate programme of demand management.”
… finally, P.40 of report states
![Page 50: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
… could high oil prices drive this change ?
![Page 51: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centres energy programme University of Manchester 25 th July 2008 UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/55150a0c55034673228b4669/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Kevin AndersonResearch director
Tyndall Centre’s energy programme University of Manchester
25th July 2008
UK Climate Change Targets:Aviation emissions and the EU ETS
Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
End