KETAHANAN EKO- SISTEM Millenium Assessment smno.psdl-ppsub.2013.

KETAHANAN

EKO-SISTEM

Millenium Assessment

smno.psdl-ppsub.2013

MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT

MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT

An international scientific assessment of the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being:–Modeled on the IPCC–Providing information requested by:

• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)• Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD)• Ramsar Convention on Wetlands• Convention on Migratory Species (CMS)• other partners including the private sector and

civil society–With the goals of:

• stimulating and guiding action to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contribution to human well-being

• building capacity to undertake integrated ecosystem assessments and to act on their information

. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen

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HUMAN CHALLENGE• Considerable progress has been made in fighting

poverty – life expectancy increasing– infant mortality decreasing– agricultural production increasing, etc.

• Major problems remain– 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day– 1 billion people do not have access to clean water– More than 2 billion people have no access to

sanitation– 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards

considered acceptable by WHO– 700 million people suffer from indoor air pollution due

to biomass burning

Source: Serageldin, 2002, Science 296:54. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen

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Why a Multi-Scale Assessment?Expect that findings at any scale of a multi-

scale assessment will be improved by information and perspectives from other

scales

Rationale– Characteristic scale of processes

– Greater resolution at smaller scales

– Independent validation of conclusions

– Response options matched to the scale where

decision-making takes place

Regional

UsersRegional Development Banks, etc.

NationalGovernment

Local Community

Global Assessment

National

Local


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First MA Product: Conceptual Framework


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Ecosystem Services: The benefits people obtain from

ecosystems

RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of

ecosystem processes

• climate regulation• disease regulation

• flood regulation• detoxification

ProvisioningGoods produced or

provided by ecosystems

• food

• fresh water

• fuel wood

• fiber

• biochemicals

• genetic resources

CulturalNon-material benefits

obtained from ecosystems

• spiritual

• recreational

• aesthetic

• inspirational

• educational

• communal

• symbolic

SupportingServices necessary for production of other ecosystem services.

• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling

• Primary production


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ECOSYSTEM CHANGES AFFECT HUMAN WELL-BEING

Security is affected both by changes in provisioning services, which affect supplies of food and other

goods and the likelihood of conflict over declining resources, and by changes in regulating services,

which could influence the frequency and magnitude of floods, droughts or other catastrophes. It can also

be affected by changes in cultural services as, for example, when their loss contributes to the

weakening of social relations in a community.These changes in turn affect material well-being,

health, freedom and choice and good social relations.Human well-being can be enhanced through

sustainable human interactions with ecosystems supported by necessary instruments, institutions, organizations, and technology. Creation of these

through participation and transparency may contribute to freedoms and choice as well as to

increased economic, social, and ecological security. By ecological security, we mean the minimum level of ecological stock needed to ensure a sustainable

flow of ecosystem services.


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Major issues related to security

Examples: • Desertification in China (sand storms)• Eutrofication in western coastal

ecosystems• Long-term droughts and rainfall

variability in the Sahel• Crop failures in rural Africa

Food and water insecurity is a second primary area of concern in changes in ecosystems

services. Multiple domains of vulnerability exist in food

security regimes and livelihood systems. Production, economic exchanges, and nutrition

are key elements as well as more structural issues associated with the political economy.


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Framework Examines Multiple Drivers as they Influence Ecosystems and Human Well-

being

Driver

Response

HumanImpact

Ecosystems

Health Economics Social

ClimateChange

Land CoverChange

BiodiversityLoss

NutrientLoading Etc.

Millennium Assessment

IPCC

Climate Change

Energy SectorBiodiversity Food

Supply Water

Health Economics Social


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Framework allows examination of trade-offs among services

Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686.

Freshwater supply and

demand

Food supply and demand

Forest product supply and demand

Biodiversityloss

Climatechange

Water availability

Water use and nutrient loss

Erosion andwater flow

Loss

and f

ragmen

tation

of ha

bitat

Redu

ced r

esilie

nce t

o cha

nge

Habit

at lo

ss

Habitat loss

Loss of crop genetic diversity

Habitat change

Change in transpiration

& albedo

N, C

H 4, N 20

em

ission

s

Hydr

ologic

CO 2 a

nd te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

s

Precipitation & temperature

Land transformation


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KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL

KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL


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KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL

PRELIMINARY FINDINGS

At a global level there have been substantial improvements in human wellbeing since the 1950s. World population has almost tripled, but the ability

to support that population expanded even more. Life expectancy increased and infant mortality rates

declined almost everywhere.


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More important, however, has been the enormous expansion in human capital.

Literacy rates are a proxy for the number of people with at least primary education.

Literacy has increased everywhere. Secondary and tertiary education rates have

also expanded greatly.


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The growth in human well-being over the last several decades has come in large part because of increases

in provisioning services from several major ecosystems.

Over the last few decades, these changes have been the largest in cultivated systems, with the biggest changes in this time period coming from increased

intensification rather than from large-scale conversion of land to agriculture, and coastal and

marine systems, from harvesting fish resources and the addition of nutrients in coastal regions as

pollutants.


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Preliminary findings

Nutrient cycling is one of the services that has been profoundly affected by human activities over long

periods of time, with a significant acceleration in the last few decades.

Most of the impact on nutrient cycling has come from the large-scale agricultural changes and its

inputs over the last decades. Therefore, most of the tradeoff of increased production against other non-provisioning services, such as nutrient cycling, can be tracked by focusing on areas where agriculture

has changed substantially.

In the same vein, biodiversity is critical to the performance of all the buffering mechanisms that

ensure an efficient use and cycling of nutrients.


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Preliminary findings of

Ecosystem changes due to trade-offs for enhancing provisioning services have played an important role in the

emergence or resurgence of infectious diseases.

Ecological processes have included: niche invasion, biodiversity loss or animal species extinction, habitat

degradation, loss of predator species, or alteration or replacement of animal

host population densities.


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It is well established that losses in biodiversity are occurring globally at all

levels, from ecosystems through species, populations and genes.

The current rate of species extinction is higher than at any time in the last 65

million years, and there is an increasing trend for conversion of naturally occurring,

species-rich ecosystems into more intensively managed habitats, with

reduced biodiversity. The extent of loss of genetic diversity is less well understood, although recorded losses in agricultural

genetic diversity are widespread.


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KETAHANAN EKO- SISTEM Millenium Assessment smno.psdl-ppsub.2013.

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