Ekonomi Internasional: Sebuah Tinjauan Teori

Kiki Verico, Ph.D

Cakupan

1. Teori Dasar Trade & Foreign Direct Investment

2. Globalisasi Ekonomi

1. Teori Dasar Perdagangan & Investasi Internasional

From Mercantilism to: • Adam Smith’s production principle (absolute advantage) • David Ricardo’s specialization (comparative advantage) • Heckscher – Ohlin, Stolper – Samuelson (Factor endowments/Intra Industry)

• Competitive advantage (Specialization of Labour, RnD & Innovation)

• Global Value Chains

• Creative Economy

Trade TheoryAbsolute Advantage(Adam Smith)

MPL=W/P Country

Singapore

Country

Indonesia

Calculator 6 2/6 1 4/1

Batik 2 6/2 4 1/4

Trade TheoryComparative Advantage(David Ricardo)

MPL=W/P Country

Singapore

Country

Indonesia

Calculator 6 5/6 1 4/1

Batik 5 6/5 4 1/4

Trade TheoryComparative Advantage: Wage Effect(David Ricardo)

MPL=W/P Country

Singapore

($30/Hour)

Country

Indonesia

($2/Hour)

Calculator 6 5 1 2

Batik 5 6 4 1/2

Comparative Advantage(David Ricardo): ER effect (If Rupiah Depreciate)

MPL

Opportunity Cost

Country

Singapore ($30)

Country

Indonesia

ER: Rp 10,000/$

(W=Rp 20,000=$2)

Depreciation to

ER:Rp 15,000/$

(W=Rp 20,000=1.3$)

Electronic 6 5 1 2 1.3

Batik 5 6 4 0.5 0.3

Big Mac Index, Economist, 2015

9

Source: “Globalization and Capital Markets,” Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor, NBER Conference Paper, May 4-5, 2001, p. 6.

Low

High

Capital Mobility

18801860 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

•

••

•1880

1900

1914

1860

Gold Standard1880-1914

Capital Mobility

••1960

1971

Bretton Woods1945-1971

•

•1980

2000

Float1971-2000

•1918

•

Interwar, 1914-1945

1929

1925

•1945

•

Source: WDI Data

Trade TheoryComparative Advantage(David Ricardo)

MPL

Opportunity Cost

Country

Singapore

Country

Indonesia

Calculator 6

6/10:100/300=

1.8

100

100/300:6/10=

0.56

Batik 4

4/10:200/300=

0.6

200

200/300:4/10=

1.67

Revealed Comparative Advantage

n

i

nt

jt

n

i

ijt

ijt

VAVA

VAVA

RCA

/

/

int

RCA>1

RCD<1

CMSA

Xit1 – Xit0 = m.Xit0-Xit0 + (mi-m).Xt0 +(Xit1-miXt0)

• Global Factor (Global Share)

• Global Sectoral Factor (Global Commodity Share)

• National Global Factor (National Commodity Share)

CMSA National: National Commodity Share (+ or -)

16

Similar in productivity (Intra Industry Trade)

MPL Country

Singapore

Country

Indonesia

Calculator 6 2

Batik 4 1

18

Vertical Integration on Tire Industry (One of major users of NR) has weakened the Cartel

Source http://www.emt-india.net/process/tyre/tyre.htm

Source: Fung Global Institute

Role of Service Sector (GVC = GPC + SS)

70% of TVA (to increase production)45% of Trade (to gain value-added from transaction)

Source: Tim GVCs LPEM based on OECD Data

TPP & Global Value Chains

Source: LPEM, GVC of Indonesia, 2016

Source: LPEM, 2014

iPod (Vertical Integration)

Source: Pyndick, 2009

25

UNCTAD Classification

Pendapatan dan Jumlah Tenaga Kerja antar Region

Region

Revenues (2013, % terhadap total pendapatan industri kreatif)

Tenaga kerja (2013, % terhadap total pekerja industri kreatif)

Asia-Pacific 33 43

Eropa 32 26

Amerika Utara 28 16

Amerika Latin 6 7

Afrika dan Timur Tengah 3 8 Sumber: Cultural times: the first global map of cultural and creative industries, EY, 2015

Pendapatan dan Jumlah Tenaga Kerja pada 11 Subsektor Industri Kreatif di Dunia

Sumber: Cultural times: the first global map of cultural and creative industries, EY, 2015

Sub Sektor Industri Kreatif Revenues

(2013, Miliar USD) Tenaga kerja

(2013, jumlah pekerja)

Televisi 477 3,527,000

Seni Rupa 391 6,732,000

Koran dan Majalah 354 2,865,000

Periklanan 285 1,953,000

Arsitektur 222 1,668,000

Buku 143 3,670,000

Seni Peran 127 3,538,000

Permainan 99 605,000

Perfilman 77 2,484,000

Musik 65 3,979,000

Radio 46 502,000

Total (sebelum penyesuaian terkait double counting)

2285 31,524,000

Total (sesudah penyesuaian terkait double counting)

2253 29,507,000

Nilai Tambah Bruto Ekonomi Kreatif Indonesia Tahun 2010- 2013 Atas Dasar Harga Belaku (Miliar

Rupiah)

No Sub Sektor (Miliar Rupiah) 2013 %

1 Periklanan 3,754.2 0.6%

2 Arsitektur 12,890.9 2.0%

3 Barang Seni 2,001.3 0.3%

4 Kerajinan 92,650.9 14.4%

5 Disain 25,042.7 3.9%

6 Fesyen 181,570.3 28.3%

7 Film, Video & Fotografi 8,401.4 1.3%

8 Permainan Interaktif 4,817.3 0.8%

9 Musik 5,237.1 0.8%

10 Seni Pertunjukan 2,595.3 0.4%

11 Penerbitan & Percetakan 52,037.6 8.1%

12 Layanan Komputer dan Piranti Lunak 10,064.8 1.6%

13 Radio & Televisi 20,340.5 3.2%

14 Riset dan Pengembangan 11,778.5 1.8%

15 Kuliner 208,632.8 32.5%

Total 641,815.6 100% Ket: *) angka sementara, **) angka sangat sementara, ***) angka sangat-sangat sementara Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik (2013)

Teori Dasar Investasi

Three types of long-run investment1. Business fixed investment :

businesses’ spending on equipment and structures for use in production.

2. Residential investment :purchases of new housing units (either by occupants or landlords).

3. Inventory investment :the value of the change in inventories of finished goods, materials and supplies, and work in progress.

Trade & FDI Relations

Before government action there were market driven factors

FDI inflows role in Regional Production Network/RPN (Flying Geese Modelof Akamatsu, 1944; Kojima, 1978; Aoki, 1992; Urata, 1993) on ASEAN-5

RPN is behind the Southeast Asia economic integration before the ECBN/guanxi (Wang, 2001) & KPN of Thailand & ASEAN-4 (Cheong, 2011)

FDI inflows stimulate knowledge & education advancement in host-countries (Hejazi & Safarian, 1999) and higher education & political economic stability stimulate FDI inflows (Aggarwal, 2008)

Endogenous relation (Hejazi & Pauly, 2003)

We hope from FDI but we have to be export oriented:Production Issues

Neraca Pembayaran (transaksi bank): Williamson&Lessard

Export Goods & Services a (c+)

Import Goods & Services b (d-)

Trade Balance C

Net Investment Income d (c+/d-)

Debt-Service Payments e (d-)

Net Remittances & transfers f (c+/d-)

Service G

Current Account H

Foreign Direct Investment i (c+/d-)

Private Foreign Loans (-Amortization) j (c+)

Government Foreign Loans (-Amortization) k (c+)

Increase in Foreign Assets of Domestic Bank l (c+)

Short Term Capital Flow m (c+/d-)

Capital Account N

BoP O

Errors/Omissions P

Delta Stock in International Reserve Q

Trade in goods includes items such as

• Manufactured goods

• Semi-finished goods and components

• Energy products

• Raw Materials

• Consumer goods

(i) Durable goods

(ii) Non-durable goods e.g. foods

• Capital goods (e.g. equipment)

Trade in services includes:

• Banking, insurance and consultancy

• Other financial services including foreign exchange and derivatives trading

• Tourism industry

• Remittance

• Transport and shipping

• Education and health services

• Research and development

• Cultural arts

The capital account Records sales to foreigners of Indonesian financial assets and Indonesian purchases of foreign financial assets.The capital account is composed of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), portfolio investments, and other investment.

Direct investment involves acquisitions of controlling interests in foreign businesses. Portfolio investment represents investment in foreign shares and bonds that do not involve acquisitions of control. Other investment includes bank deposits, currency investment, trade credit and the like.

http://www.google.co.id/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCMQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yorku.ca%2Fyildirim%2FADMS4542%2Fch3.ppt&ei=IFD9VLS9PI68ugSnzYGgBQ&usg=AFQjCNFVr-gabhSukOia4NSO6J7WKXKl1w&sig2=RrocfRpAT6LLDevZNAzZyg&bvm=bv.87611401,d.c2E

The Reserve Account The Reserve Account of BOP records changes in the amount of “official” reserve assets held by the Bank of Indonesia.

Official reserves assets include gold, foreign currencies, SDRs, reserve positions in the IMF.

If a country must make net payment to foreigners because of BOP deficit, the country could either run down its official reserve assets or borrow a new from foreigners.

http://www.google.co.id/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCMQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yorku.ca%2Fyildirim%2FADMS4542%2Fch3.ppt&ei=IFD9VLS9PI68ugSnzYGgBQ&usg=AFQjCNFVr-gabhSukOia4NSO6J7WKXKl1w&sig2=RrocfRpAT6LLDevZNAzZyg&bvm=bv.87611401,d.c2E

2. Globalisasi Ekonomi

Globalization “The process of international integration arising from the interchange of world views, products, ideas, and other aspects of culture. Advances in transportation and telecommunication infrastructure, including the rise of the telegraph and its posterity the internet, are major factors in globalization, generating further interdependence of economic and cultural activities” (Guyford, 1972)

Four waves of globalization:1. Government Led: Colonialization 2. Private (MNCs) Led: Industrial Revolution3. Individual Led: Information Communication Technology (ICT) Revolution4. Machinery Led: Virtual Domination, material less

Perbandingan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%): D.Dollar & A.Art,WB Research Paper, March 2001,p.38

Category 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s

Globalized 1.4 2.9 3.5 5.0 6.0

Non Globalized 2.4 3.3 0.8 1.4 1.5

Sumber:Author’s calculation

Protection and its impact

p

D

S

P(1+t)

PNMS

Qs0 Qs1

P

QLEMSQd1 Qd0

Government

Rent SeekerRent Seeker

Domestic Producer

How Foreign Producer

Respond?

Depends on the type of

protection

(tariff, quota, non-tariff)

Protection Effect

• Rybczynski theorem: growth in one factor intensively accelerates growth in output that intensively uses that factor and the opposite. Thus (1) growth in scarce input increases import-substitution output and (2) growth in abundance input increases export output

• In short-run condition (1) will deteriorate NX and if negative NX is higher than positive import-substitution growth then it creates net negative effect. It is called ‘immiserizing growth’ (Bhaqwati,1958)

43

Prisoner’s Dilemma on Trade retaliation

Protection DilemmaRetaliation

Developing Country(Manufacture)

Protection No Protection

Developed Country

(Agriculture)

Protection 20/10 60/5

No Protection 10/30 40/20

Empirical Evidence Intra regional trade: WTO, International Trade Statistics table III.3

% of Export

sum by row

North

America

Latin

America

Western

Europe

Africa Middle

East

Asia

North America 39.5 16.5 19 1.3 2.1 20.9

Latin America 60.8 17 12.1 1.2 1.2 6.3

Western

Europe

10.3 2.3 67.5 2.5 2.6 7.8

Africa 17.7 3.5 51.8 7.8 2.1 14.9

Middle East 16.5 1.3 16.5 3.8 7.6 47.3

Asia 25.1 2.7 16.8 1.6 3 48.2

47

Regional Economic Integration Theory

SCSMUCMCUFTA

Free Trade Area(1957-1967)Free flows of goods (output market),

Treaty of RomeTreaty of Paris, 1951: ECSC,EURATOM, EPU

Custom Union (1967-1987)Trade Diversion to Investment Creation (transition output & input market)

Economic Community

Common Market(1987-1993)Free flows of capital people (input market)

Single Market (Real Sector Convergence)

Single Monetary Union(1993-1999)Monetary policy union

Treaty of Maastricht,1992 (SGP, EMS to ECB)

Single Currency(1999-2002) Single Currency preparation and exist until now)

Monetary, Single Currency (OCA, ERM)

Source: Verico, Kiki, 2013

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