Keppel land research report 2013 July 9 Macq

7/28/2019 Keppel land research report 2013 July 9 Macq

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Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on ourwebsite www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.

SINGAPORE

KPLD SP Outperform

Price (at 06:17, 08 Jul 2013 GMT) S$3.40Valuation S$ 5.31- RNAV12-month target S$ 3.99

Upside/Downside % +17.4

12-month TSR % +20.9

Volatility Index Medium

GICS sector Real Estate

Market cap S$m 5,256

Market cap US$m 4,055Free float % 45

30-day avg turnover US$m 10.1

Number shares on issue m 1,546

Investment fundamentalsYear end 31 Dec 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Revenue m 938.9 1,103.1 1,198.7 1,024.1EBIT m 211.0 242.8 228.8 193.9EBIT growth % 12.9 15.0 -5.8 -15.3Reported profit m 838.4 325.8 284.6 320.6

Adjusted profit m 451.5 325.8 284.6 320.6EPS rep 58.1 22.7 19.6 21.7EPS rep growth % -39.4 -61.0 -13.5 10.4EPS adj 32.5 22.7 19.6 21.7EPS adj growth % 53.8 -30.2 -13.5 10.4PER rep x 5.8 15.0 17.3 15.7

Total DPS 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0Total div yield % 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5ROA % 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.6ROE % 7.7 5.2 4.4 5.0EV/EBITDA x 11.3 13.8 14.9 13.4Net debt/equity % 22.1 18.6 19.6 24.9P/BV x 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

KPLD SP rel SNGPORI performance, &rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was noMacquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2013

(all figures in SGD unless noted)

Analyst(s)Tuck Yin Soong+65 6601 0838 [email protected] Lee+65 6601 0024 [email protected]

9 July 2013Macquarie Capital Securities(Singapore) Pte. Limited

Keppel LandPatience pays offEvent

Keppel Lands share price corrected 18.2% (-17.1% versus the FSTI index) in

the past six months, reflecting concerns over an economic slowdown in

China, which accounts for 37.5% of its assets as at 1Q13. Near-term earnings

are secured, underpinned by recognition of Singapore projects (progressively)

and overseas (on completion). Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Tower 3

could be monetised, which may result in a special dividend.

Impact

China concerns overblown. Resi sales momentum is steady with 690 units

in 4Q12; 890 units in 1Q13 and 250 units in April 2013. Key projects are

almost 90% sold, with profits to be recognised on completion over the next

three years.

Growing commercial presence in overseas markets. The group has also

stepped up its commercial portfolio with projects in Beijing, Tianjin, Ho Chi

Minh City and Jakarta. Keppel Land with Alpha Partners also bought a

retail/office asset mall (GFA of 1.23m sq ft) in Jinqiao, Pudong, Shanghai.

MBFC Tower 3 substantially leased. As at May 2013, this office tower is

88% leased. We believe Keppel Land will eventually divest the asset torecycle capital. In previous asset divestments like MBFC Tower 1&2 and

Ocean Financial Centre, Keppel Land paid a special dividend to shareholders.

Earnings and target price revision

No change to EPS forecasts. TP +7.3% to S$3.99 using average 5-year

discount to RNAV of 25%.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: S$3.99 based on a RNAV methodology.

Catalyst: Divestment of MBFC Tower 3; new home sales upturn in China.

Action and recommendation The attractive 37% discount to our RNAV offers valuation support. There is a

potential 17.4% upside to our target price of S$3.99, and backed by a decent

yield of 3.6%. This yield could increase if Keppel Land divests MBFC Tower 3

and pays a special dividend. We upgrade from Neutral to Outperform.

[email protected] FIRST LAST 07/10/13 12:23:13 AM BNP Paribas (Singapore) {Asset Mgmt}


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Macquarie Research Keppel Land

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Keppel Land (KPLD SP, Outperform, Target Price: S$3.99)Interim Results 2H/12A 1H/13E 2H/13E 1H/14E Profit & Loss 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Net Property Income m 28 32 32 33 Net Property Income m 56 65 67 69Development Income m 528 380 480 427 Development Income m 724 860 954 818Other Revenue m 82 89 89 89 Other Revenue m 158 179 178 137Total Revenue m 638 502 602 549 Total Revenue m 939 1,103 1,199 1,024Management Fees m 0 0 0 0 Management Fees m 0 0 0 0Other Expenses m 0 0 0 0 Other Expenses m 0 0 0 0EBITDA m 155 102 152 95 EBITDA m 222 254 240 205Dep & Amortisation m 6 5 5 5 Dep & Amortisation m 11 11 11 11EBIT m 149 96 146 89 EBIT m 211 243 229 194Net Interest Income m 2 -24 -30 -31 Net Interest Income m -1 -55 -69 -74

Associates m 146 116 116 106 Associates m 374 233 212 296Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0Other Pre-Tax Income m 403 0 0 0 Other Pre-Tax Income m 403 0 0 0Pre-Tax Profit m 699 188 232 164 Pre-Tax Profit m 987 421 372 416Tax Expense m -75 -36 -36 -32 Tax Expense m -122 -72 -63 -71Net Profit m 624 153 197 132 Net Profit m 865 349 309 346Minority Interests m -22 -10 -14 -10 Minority Interests m -27 -24 -24 -25

Reported Earnings m 602 143 183 122 Reported Earnings m 838 326 285 321Adjusted Earnings m 215 143 183 122 Adjusted Earnings m 452 326 285 321

EPS (rep) 41.1 10.0 12.7 8.5 EPS (rep) 58.1 22.7 19.6 21.7EPS (adj) 15.5 10.0 12.7 8.5 EPS (adj) 32.5 22.7 19.6 21.7EPS Growth yoy (adj) % 19.8 -41.0 -18.3 -15.3 EPS Growth (adj) % 53.8 -30.2 -13.5 10.4

PE (rep) x 5.8 15.0 17.3 15.7PE (adj) x 10.5 15.0 17.3 15.7

EBITDA Margins % 24.3 20.3 25.2 17.3 Total DPS 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0

EBIT Margins % 23.3 19.2 24.3 16.3 Total Div Yield % 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5Earnings Split % 47.6 43.9 56.1 43.0 Weighted Average Shares m 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510Revenue Growth % 31.1 66.9 -5.8 9.5 Period End Shares m 1,544 1,544 1,544 1,544EBIT Growth % 65.7 54.3 -1.5 -7.3

Profit & Loss Ratios 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Cashflow Analysis 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Revenue Growth % -1.1 17.5 8.7 -14.6 EBITDA m 222 254 240 205EBITDA Growth % 13.4 14.3 -5.5 -14.6 Tax Paid m -46 -72 -63 -71EBIT Growth % 12.9 15.0 -5.8 -15.3 Chg in Working Capital m -831 260 190 -51EBITDA Margins % 23.6 23.0 20.0 20.0 Net Interest Paid m 11 -32 -41 -41EBIT Margins % 22.5 22.0 19.1 18.9 Other m -2 58 53 70Net Profit Margins % 92.1 31.7 25.7 33.7 Operating Cashflow m -646 468 378 112Payout Ratio % 36.9 52.9 61.1 55.3 Acquisitions m -52 -21 -27 -32EV/EBITDA x 11.3 13.8 14.9 13.4 Capex m -60 -100 -300 -300EV/EBIT x 11.5 14.1 15.2 13.7 Asset Sales m 0 0 0 0

Other m 0 0 0 0Balance Sheet Ratios Investing Cashflow m -113 -121 -327 -332ROE % 7.7 5.2 4.4 5.0 Dividend (Ordinary) m -134 -154 -154 -154ROA % 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 Equity Raised m 0 0 0 0

ROIC % 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.9 Debt Movements m -25 0 0 0Net Debt/Equity % 22.1 18.6 19.6 24.9 Other m 573 3 3 3Interest Cover x 287.1 4.4 3.3 2.6 Financing Cashflow m 414 -151 -151 -151Price/Book x 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8Book Value per Share 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 Net Chg in Cash/Debt m -344 195 -100 -371

Free Cashflow m -706 368 78 -188

Balance Sheet 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Cash m 1,597 1,792 1,692 1,322Receivables m 580 674 733 634Inventories m 4,159 3,948 3,908 3,952Investments m 1,302 1,402 1,702 1,852Fixed Assets m 289 289 289 289Intangibles m 0 0 0 0Other Assets m 3,535 3,801 3,879 3,910Total Assets m 11,461 11,906 12,203 11,959Payables m 1,459 1,714 1,863 1,612Short Term Debt m 715 184 153 153

Long Term Debt m 2,349 2,879 2,910 2,910Provisions m 292 292 292 292Other Liabilities m 0 0 0 0Total Liabilities m 4,814 5,070 5,218 4,968Shareholders' Funds m 6,169 6,341 6,472 6,467Minority Interests m 477 495 513 524Total S/H Equity m 6,646 6,836 6,985 6,991Total Liab & S/H Funds m 11,461 11,906 12,203 11,959

All figures in SGD unless noted.Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2013



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Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New ZealandOutperform return >3% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 3% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >3% below benchmark return

Benchmark return is determined by long term nominalGDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividendyield

Macquarie Asia/EuropeOutperform expected return >+10%

Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return +10%Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return 5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USAOutperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell3000 index returnNeutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 indexreturnUnderperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historicalprice movements.

Very highhighest risk Stock should beexpected to move up or down 60100% in a year

investors should be aware this stock is highlyspeculative.

High stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 4060% in a year investors shouldbe aware this stock could be speculative.

Medium stock should be expected to move upor down at least 3040% in a year.

Lowmedium stock should be expected tomove up or down at least 2530% in a year.

Low stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 1525% in a year.* Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocksonly

Recommendations 12 monthsNote: Quant recommendations may differ fromFundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the followingadjustments made:

Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision forcatastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, propertyrevals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &minority interests

EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /averagetotal assetsROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted averagenumber of shares

All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocksare modelled under IFRS (International FinancialReporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2013

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUROutperform 49.80% 57.68% 48.05% 41.13% 61.75% 47.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.12% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Neutral 39.85% 24.45% 42.86% 54.70% 34.42% 30.89% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.60% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Underperform 10.35% 17.87% 9.09% 4.17% 3.83% 22.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

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Technology

J effrey Su (Asia, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3578Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090Claudio Aritomi (J apan) (813) 3512 7858

Damian Thong (J apan) (813) 3512 7877David Gibson (J apan) (813) 3512 7880George Chang (J apan) (813) 3512 7854Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659Andrew Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7526Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516

Tammy Lai (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7525

Telecoms

Nathan Ramler (Asia, J apan) (813) 3512 7875Danny Chu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4762Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486Prem Jearajasingam(Malaysia, Singapore) (603) 2059 8989

Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899J oseph Quinn (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7519

Transport & Infrastructure

J anet Lewis (Asia, J apan) (852) 3922 5417Bonnie Chan (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3898Nicholas Cunningham (J apan) (813) 3512 6044Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993Corinne J ian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Utilities & Renewables

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087Prem J earajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Commodities

Colin Hamilton (Global) (4420) 3037 4061J im Lennon (4420) 3037 4271Duncan Hobbs (4420) 3037 4497Graeme Train (8621) 2412 9035Rakesh Arora (9122) 6720 4093

Economics

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Asia, J apan) (813) 3512 7850

Aimee Kaye (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0574Richard Gibbs (Australia) (612) 8232 3935Tanvee Gupta (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative / CPG

Gurvinder Brar (Global) (4420) 3037 4036J osh Holcroft (Asia). (852) 3922 1279Burke Lau (Asia) (852) 3922 5494Simon Rigney (Asia, J apan) (852) 3922 4719Eric Yeung (Asia) (852) 3922 4077Suni Kim (J apan) (813) 3512 7569

Strategy/Country

Viktor Shvets (Asia) (852) 3922 3883Chetan Seth (Asia) (852) 3922 4769

J oshua van Lin (Asia Micro) (852) 3922 1425Peter Eadon-Clarke (J apan) (813) 3512 7850David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

J iong Shao (China) (852) 3922 3566Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6121) 2598 8366

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753

Find our research atMacquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/researchThomson: www.thomson.com/financialReuters: www.knowledge.reuters.comBloomberg: MAC GOFactset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspxCapitalIQ www.capitaliq.comEmail [email protected] for access

Asia SalesRegional Heads of Sales

Robin Black (Asia) (852) 3922 2074Chris Gray (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0288Peter Slater (Boston) (1 617) 598 2502

J effrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712Bharat Rawla (India) (9122) 6720 4100

Chris Gould (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555Miki Edelman (J apan) (813) 3512 7857J ohn J ay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988Ruben Boopalan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861Eric Roles (New York) (1 212) 231 2559Paul Colaco (New York) (1 212) 231 2496

Regional Heads of Sales con td

Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5001Erica Wang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7586Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601Angus Innes (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4841Sean Alexander (Generalist) (852) 3922 2101

Regional Head of Distribution

J ustin Crawford (Asia) (852) 3922 2065

Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002Phil Sellaroli (J apan) (813) 3512 7837Kenneth Cheung (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Sales Trading contd

Mike Keen (Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582Dominic Shore (Thailand) (662) 694 7707


Keppel land research report 2013 July 9 Macq

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