Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap Strategy - … · Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap...

Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap StrategyGestión de activos de “alta convicción” en Small-caps Europeas

► Mayo 2016

► KCM: Tommy Bryson

Kempen Capital Management

Inversiones*

€12.900 millones

Soluciones*

€28.800 millones

Los activos gestionados están bien repartidos en diferentes nichos

* Datos a 31 de Diciembre de 2015, en EUR mn

634693

983

1,666

2,2102,972

3,802

Listed Real Estate

Fund of Hedge Funds

Small-cap Equity

Euro High Grade Government Bonds

High Dividend Equity

Euro Investment Grade Credits

Fundamental Indexing®

16,1328,960

3,707

Fiduciary Management

Private Clients

Fiduciary Management UK

Resumen de Kempen Capital Management

1


Un caso ejemplar

Mejores Resultados

Sostenibles en el

Largo Plazo

Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap Strategy

Resultado superior al benchmark en un 3.9% anualizado desde el comienzo

Proceso analítico

riguroso

Selección de acciones con alta

convicción

Aproximación ASG

única

Compromiso Innovador

2


Un equipo enfocado a la inversión de “convicción”

Strong Team

Tommy Bryson CFA

Nordics

Mark McCullough

UK & Ireland

Kathleen Dewandeleer

Benelux, Portugal, France

& Spain

Mike Gray CFA

Austria, Germany & Italy

Martin Stockner

UK & Switzerland

Karen McGrath

Head of Sustainability

3



5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

12,5% 13,0% 13,5% 14,0% 14,5% 15,0%

Figures based on a representative account gross of fees. Data to the end of March 2016. Source: KCM, Datastream

Annualised

Return

Volatility

4

Gráfico del binomio Rentabilidad-Riesgo a 5 años

Kempen Sustainable European

Small-cap Strategy

MSCI European

Large-cap Index

MSCI European

Small-cap Index

Performance



Selección de activos con alta convicción

Añadiendo valor mediante el análisis propio – Financiero y ASG

Cartera de “Convicción”

Revisión y Contraste

Team & ESG validation

Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG

Generación de la Idea

High Quality - ROCE/FCF Yield

Special Situations - specific event

Definición del universo de Inversión

Average daily trading value > €0.25m, Market cap > €250m and < €5.0bn

5



Amer Sports – Inversión realizada en octubre de 2015

Appendix: Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap Strategy

6

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCNOMsO-i8cgCFQVSFAod-6ILlA&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amer_Sports&psig=AFQjCNFBgel-G5SlEXZRq_ailhnOx1TOSQ&ust=1446537659187639


Definición del universo de inversión

Inversores verdaderos en Small-cap

7


► Liquidez

Volumen medio diario >EUR250,000

► Capitalización de mercado

>EUR250m y < EUR5bn




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG








Solo adquirimos dos tipos de empresas

8


or

(Alta calidad) (Situación especial)

HQ SS




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG







Análisis Propio- Financiero

Añadiendo valor mediante el análisis propio – Financiero y ASG

9


► 5 fuerzas de Porter

► Modelo Financiero

Updated: 25/04/2016

BB Ticker: AMEAS FH Consensus: 10 Buys 2 Holds 0 Sells 2016E

Country: FINLAND 2016E 2017E 2018E Guidance PT & TSR: 31.8 25.2%

Price: EUR 26.46 Sales 2,716 2,887 3,054 - Analyst:

Shares in issues (m): 118.5 EBIT 244 274 299 - SRI Status:

Market Capitalisation (EURm): 3,140 EPS 1.33 1.51 1.66 - MSCI ESG Rating:

Ave daily volume (EURm): 7.555 EBIT Margin 9.0% 9.5% 9.8% 0.0% GICS Sector:

Free Float %: 91.0% ICB Sector:

Ranking on ROCE: Quartile: 2 (Both rankings unchanged since first pitched in July 2015) Ranking on FCF Yield Quartile: 3

Income Statement (EURm) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales 1,740 1,881 2,064 2,137 2,229 2,534 2,720 2,888 3,069 3,265 3,477

Adjusted EBITDA 155 171 179 197 217 263 302 337 371 395 420

Depreciation (36) (24) (28) (33) (36) (42) (45) (48) (51) (54) (57)

Adjusted EBITA 119 147 151 165 181 221 257 289 321 341 363

Amortisation (11) (12) (12) (10) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9)

Goodwill Impairment - - - - (4) - - - - - -

Adjusted EBIT 108 136 139 155 168 212 248 280 311 332 354

Net interest (21) (21) (32) (29) (37) (36) (31) (31) (31) (30) (30)

Tax (7) (24) (25) (36) (22) (46) (61) (70) (79) (84) (91)

Associates - - - - - - - - - - -

Minorities (0) (0) - - - - - - - - -

XOI (11) - (25) - (54) (8) (6) - - - -

Net profit normalised 80 91 82 90 113 130 156 179 202 217 233

EPS (reported) 0.57 0.76 0.49 0.76 0.47 1.03 1.27 1.52 1.71 1.84 1.98

EPS (adjusted) 0.66 0.76 0.70 0.76 0.96 1.10 1.32 1.52 1.71 1.84 1.98

DPS 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.55 0.60 0.69 0.77 0.83 0.89

Shares o/s (fully diluted) 121.2 120.1 118.1 118.1 118.3 117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9

Margin and Growth Analysis 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales growth 13.5% 8.1% 9.7% 3.5% 4.3% 13.7% 7.3% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5%

EBIT growth 121.1% 25.6% 2.4% 11.7% 8.7% 26.0% 16.9% 13.0% 11.1% 6.5% 6.7%

EPS growth 77.4% 14.6% (7.8%) 9.7% 25.2% 14.9% 20.5% 15.0% 12.6% 7.3% 7.4%

EBITDA margin 8.9% 9.1% 8.7% 9.2% 9.7% 10.4% 11.1% 11.7% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1%

EBIT margin 6.2% 7.2% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 8.4% 9.1% 9.7% 10.1% 10.2% 10.2%

Net margin 4.6% 4.8% 4.0% 4.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.7% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6% 6.7%

Balance Sheet 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Intangible assets 501 510 501 486 510 628 622 616 609 603 598

P,P&E 134 146 153 155 167 196 206 216 226 238 250

Cash 85 79 143 236 221 331 391 447 511 574 641

Inventories 302 360 337 355 413 482 490 520 552 588 626

Receivables 463 518 517 514 543 564 605 642 683 727 774

Total Assets 1,654 1,824 1,870 2,030 2,174 2,556 2,667 2,795 2,936 3,083 3,242

Payables 182 200 193 219 238 276 296 314 334 355 378

Interest bearing debt 380 470 577 702 659 792 792 792 792 792 792

Provisions 30 68 92 63 96 97 97 97 97 97 97

Equity 788 806 732 761 843 950 1,035 1,144 1,265 1,391 1,527

Minorities 3 3 - - - - - - - - -

Capital Employed 1,082 1,191 1,263 1,274 1,333 1,442 1,520 1,559 1,614 1,675 1,740

Cashflow 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Operating Cash Flow 80 31 113 87 105 212 182 187 209 223 237

Net Capex (31) (44) (44) (43) (49) (48) (54) (58) (61) (65) (70)

Intangible capex (9) (7) (5) (2) (3) (29) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3)

Free Cash Flow 40 (21) 63 42 53 134 125 126 144 154 164

Acquisitions/Disposals - (1) (3) - - (75) - - - - -

Debt change (56) 85 37 128 (42) 99 - - - - -

Buybacks - (37) - (5) (13) - - - - - -

Dividend (20) (36) (39) (41) (47) (53) (65) (70) (81) (91) (98)

Other (6) 3 6 7 19 (15) - - - - -

Net Cash Flow (pre-fx) (41) (7) 65 131 (30) 90 60 56 64 63 67

Balance Sheet and Cashflow ratios 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Net debt 295 392 434 465 438 460 401 344 281 218 151

Net gearing % 37.4% 48.6% 59.3% 61.1% 52.0% 48.5% 38.7% 30.1% 22.2% 15.7% 9.9%

Net debt/EBITDA 1.9x 2.3x 2.4x 2.4x 2.0x 1.7x 1.3x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x 0.4x

Interest income 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Interest expense 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%

Net interest/net debt (7.4%) (6.0%) (7.7%) (6.4%) (8.2%) (8.0%) (7.2%) (8.3%) (9.8%) (12.2%) (16.3%)

Interest Cover 7.3x 8.4x 5.6x 6.9x 5.8x 7.3x 9.7x 10.9x 12.1x 13.0x 14.0x

Tax rate 7.6% 21.0% 22.9% 28.5% 16.5% 26.4% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0%

Net Working Capital 583 678 661 650 719 770 799 848 901 959 1,021

Inventories/Sales 17.4% 19.1% 16.3% 16.6% 18.5% 19.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%

Receivables/Sales 26.6% 27.6% 25.0% 24.1% 24.4% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2%

Payables/Sales 10.4% 10.6% 9.3% 10.3% 10.7% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%

WC/Sales 33.5% 36.0% 32.0% 30.4% 32.2% 30.4% 29.4% 29.4% 29.4% 29.4% 29.4%

Cash conversion - (CFO/EBIT) 74.2% 22.6% 81.2% 56.4% 62.3% 99.7% 73.3% 66.8% 67.1% 67.1% 67.1%

Capex/Depreciation 0.9x 1.8x 1.6x 1.3x 1.4x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x

Depreciation/Sales 2.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

Depreciation life 3.6 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1

Capex/Sales 1.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Intangibles/Sales 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Total Capex+M&A/Sales 2.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 2.3% 6.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Dividend payout 45.5% 43.7% 50.2% 52.3% 47.0% 50.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Goods

TBRY

Research Summary

AMER SPORTS

Select recommendation

Passed

AA

Amer Sports (AMEAS FH): Porter’s 5 Forces Model Amer Sports is a sporting goods company with brands including Arc’teryx, Salomon, Atomic, Wilson, Mavic, Suunto and Precor. It offers both soft (footwear and apparel) and hard (equipment) goods over a range of sports including tennis, badminton, golf, American football, baseball, basketball, alpine skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing, fitness training, cycling, running, hiking and diving. Amer Sports’ USP is its brands and the technical excellence reputation it has built around them. Management: Chairman Anssi Vanjoki (age 59, since 2006). 7 additional independent directors. CEO Heikki Takala (age 49, since 2010). Ex-P&G so not an industry guy. Has turned strategy around on its head to focus on soft goods rather than equipment (hard goods). I get the impression that he is pretty focused and market savvy. CFO Jussi Siitonen (age 46, since 2011). Solid. Previously at Stora Enso. Remuneration: Annual targets – EBIT, cash flow and growth. Also share based incentives: annual on EBIT margin and growth then long term rolling based on 3 year total return.

Snapshot

61.5%74.9%

24.1%

21.6%14.4%

16.6%

(13.0%)

(20.0%)

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

Revenue EBIT

Amer Sports business segment revenue/EBIT split, 2014

Eliminations

Fitness

Ball Sports

Winter & Outdoor

47.7%

39.2%

13.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

Revenue

Amer Sports geographic segment revenue split, 2014

APAC

Americas

EMEA

Suppliers (bargaining power with the company) M With 25% self-manufactured (skiing and cycling equipment), 15% ‘partially outsourced vendors' and 60% outsourced (racquets, golf, team sports, most of apparel and footwear), Amer Sports is not particularly dependent on any one supplier. Manufacturing is located in Austria, Bulgaria, France, Finland, Canada and US.

Customers (bargaining power with the company) M

End customers have limited bargaining power other than the ability to vote with their feet. Its focus on the premium segment does give it more pricing power than mid/mass focused peers. Despite increasingly taking control, Amer Sports is still reliant on third party distribution which has reasonable power.

Substitutes (potential product or service threat to the company) H

There are a plethora of products in each of the segments in which it operates (perhaps with the exception of NFL pigskins and baseball bats) which pose a threat. Brands are hard to replicate but they can be bought and can move into adjacencies (think Nike in golf, Apple smart watches).




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG







Revisión y Contraste – Equipo

El equipo revisa y cuestiona la propuesta y realiza un

valoración ASG independiente

10


Price Target Calculation:

Discounted ROCE FV 33.3% 2% growth given underlying drivers

DCF 33.3% 10% terminal EBIT margin

Historic Multiples FV 0.0% Restructuring phase so not used

Peer Multiples FV 33.3% weighted 40% soft, 60% hard

Price Target (PT): 31.8 25.1%




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG






Kempen Capital Management11

Análisis ASG basado en el cuestionario

Resultados analizados por

ACTIAM

Implicación con empresas

Voto delegado

Implicación con empresas

Idea de Inversión

Análisis validado por una entidad independiente


Desempeño medioambiental

Ética y Buen Gobierno

Desempeño social

Análisis Propio – proceso ASG

11




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG








Desempeño Medioambiental

• Políticas medioambientales

• Sistema de Gestión Medioambiental

• Auditar / certificación ISO

• Cuantía de emisiones de CO2

• Consumo de agua

• Innovación verde

• Tabla de Desempeño Medioambiental

Desempeño Social

• Política y ámbito en recursos humanos

• Estrategia social en países en riesgo

• Proyección del desempeño social de los proveedores

• Acuerdos por servicios públicos

• Tabla de Desempeño Social

Ética y Buen Gobierno del Negocio

• Código ético de conducta

• Integridad y transparencia

• Política de denuncio

• Independencia y diversidad del consejo

• Integridad en proceso y estrategias

• Tabla de Desempeño del Gobierno Corporativo

Desde 2002 implicándose con compañías sobre criterios ASG

Análisis Propio – Cuestionario ASG




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG







La implicación está en el núcleo de lo que hacemos

13

151

9688

154

98

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

KCM Company Engagements 2011-15


Análisis Propio – implicación ASG




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG







INVERTIR

Si aprueba al menos

2 de los 3 criterios

ASG

Disponible para

invertir durante 3 años

APROBADO

INVERTIR

Si aprueba al menos

1 de los 3 criterios

ASG

Disponible para

invertir durante 2 años

PROVISIONAL

NO INVERTIR

No aprueban ninguno

de los 3 criterios

ASG*

No disponible para

invertir durante 1 año

RECHAZADO

Re-evaluación Continua


No invertiremos en:

• Armamento

• Pruebas con animales

• Juego

• Tabaco

• Alcohol

• Energía nuclear

• Pornografía

• Ingeniería genética

• Producción industrial de

animales de granja

• Corrupción

• Abusos a los humanos y

derechos laborales

• Compañías bajo sospecha de implicación por actividades problemáticas, que se niegan a cooperar o a demostrar franqueza serán excluidos del universo de inversión

14

Revisión y Contraste – ASG




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG







Cartera de Convicción

Todas las posiciones son significativas

15


24

9

Alta Calidad Situación Especial

30-50 Títulos (Actualmente 33)

27

6

Aprobado Provisional




Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG







Características de la estrategia

High Quality: 24 holdings (74%) Special Situations: 9 holdings (24%)

Características Estrategia Benchmark*

2-year earnings growth (FY0-FY2)** 14.5% 9.7%

Dividend yield (FY0) 2.2% 2.3%

Price/Earnings ratio (FY2) 17.8x 16.0x

P/ Book (FY0) 3.4x 2.0x

EV/ Sales (FY2) 1.4x 1.4x

EV/ EBITDA (FY2) 10.1x 9.1x

Net Debt/ EBITDA (FY0) 0.5x 1.2x

Free Cash Flow Yield (FY0) 4.5% 3.5%

ROCE (FY0) 21.9% 9.9%

Weighted average market cap. (€ mn) 2,190 2,408

Number of Holdings 33 923

5 year average turnover*** 41%

* Benchmark: MSCI Euro Small-cap TR Index (half UK Adj)

** Annualised

*** Last 5 calendar years (2011-2015), double counted

Source: KCM UK, FactSet, data as at end March 2016

Cartera de Convicción - características

Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap Strategy Cartera de “Convicción”



Análisis Propio

Financial & ESG







Un caso ejemplar

Mejores Resultados

Sostenibles en el

Largo Plazo


Resultado superior al benchmark en un 3.9% anualizado desde el comienzo

Proceso analítico

riguroso

Selección de acciones con alta

convicción

Aproximación ASG

única

Compromiso Innovador

17


Kempen Capital Management N.V. (KCM) is licensed as a manager of various investment funds and to provide investment services and is subject to supervision by the

Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets.

KCM has entrusted, under its control and responsibility, Kempen Capital Management (UK) Ltd. with the execution of the investment policy. This investment firm is subject to

regulation of the Financial Conduct Authority and registered under no.166063.

This presentation is for information purposes only and provides insufficient information for an investment decision. No part of this presentation may be used without prior

permission from KCM.

Disclaimer

18

Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap Strategy - … · Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap...

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Transcript of Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap Strategy - … · Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap...