KEL Final Report ver1 - Arif Habib...

13
For important disclosure and analyst certification, kindly refer to end of the report Company Report May 15, 2014 K-Electric Limited Electricity The tide is turning We are initiating our coverage on Karachi Electric Limited (KEL) with a DCF based Dec-14 target price of PKR 10.82/share, offering an upside of 64% from last closing price of PKR 6.67/share. Our investment case is primarily based on company’s investment in power generation through rehabilitation and capacities additions leading to improve fleet efficiency and declining T&D losses. KEL earnings are expected to grow at 49% CAGR in next 5-years (FY13-17). We expect the company to post EPS of PKR 0.32 in FY14, a rise of 31% YoY. Increase in fleet efficiency to bolster profitability The company is in the process of converting its 3 plants from open cycle to combined cycle which would enhance capacity by 47.5 MW by FY15. This would further enhance efficiency of these plants. We expect the overall fleet efficiency of the company is likely to jump by 3% to 41% in FY16. Moreover, the company is converting its two units of 210MW each at Bin Qasim Power Station 1 (BQPS1) from furnace oil to coal fired plant. The project is expected to be completed by the end of FY17. Adding-value through, subsequent reduction in company’s T&D losses The company has managed to control its Transmission & Distribution (T&D) losses, trimming it down from 36% in FY09 to 25% in 9MFY14. This was achieved through 1) Introduction of Ariel bundled (Temper proof) cables with primary focus on high loss areas 3) Managing load shedding, with high loss areas facing more blackouts. Going forward we have assumed 1% annual reduction till FY17. Unbundling to unlock hidden potential K-Electric has decided to un-bundle the company’s current business divisions into separate entities for electricity generation and transmission & distribution. We believe this could unlock value in the company as under current tariff regime, there is no inbuilt return for generation, only efficiency gains and reduction in T&D augments the profitability. We expect this unbundling to be completed by end of FY16 as company is in the process of engaging legal and tax consultants. Financial Highlights FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F FY17F Net Sales 188,999 189,423 203,094 211,546 229,306 Cost of sales 160,177 164,549 168,530 172,357 176,142 Net income 6,729 8,848 15,096 19,361 33,392 EPS 0.24 0.32 0.55 0.70 1.21 P/E (x) 27.26 20.73 12.15 9.48 5.49 P/B (x) 3.39 2.91 2.35 1.88 1.40 ROE 14% 15% 21% 22% 29% ROA 2% 3% 5% 6% 10% Source: Company accounts and AHL Research Target Price 10.82 Last Closing 6.6 Upside KSE Code Bloomberg Code Market Cap (US$ m) Outstanding Shares (m) 12M Avg. Daily Turnover (m) 12M High/Low (PKR) Major Shareholders Analyst Tahir Abbas [email protected] +92 -21-32462589 Share Holding Pattern Stock Performance www.arifhabibltd.com Buy 63.9% KEL KEL PA Shares KSE Pow er Ltd Government of Pakistan 1,822.6 27,615.2 6.0 7.98 / 4.99 69% 24% 1% 2% 3% KES Power Limited Govt of Pakistan General Public IFC ADB 70% 100% 130% 160% 190% Apr-13 May -13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 KEL KSE100

Transcript of KEL Final Report ver1 - Arif Habib...

Page 1: KEL Final Report ver1 - Arif Habib Limitedarifhabibltd.com/downloads/company/KELInitiationReport.pdf · Company Report May 15, 2014 K-Electric Limited Electricity ... The project

For important disclosure and analyst certification, kindly refer to end of the report

Company Report May 15, 2014

K-Electric Limited Electricity The tide is turning

We are initiating our coverage on Karachi Electric Limited (KEL) with a DCF based

Dec-14 target price of PKR 10.82/share, offering an upside of 64% from last closing

price of PKR 6.67/share. Our investment case is primarily based on company’s

investment in power generation through rehabilitation and capacities additions

leading to improve fleet efficiency and declining T&D losses. KEL earnings are

expected to grow at 49% CAGR in next 5-years (FY13-17). We expect the company

to post EPS of PKR 0.32 in FY14, a rise of 31% YoY.

Increase in fleet efficiency to bolster profitability The company is in the process of converting its 3 plants from open cycle to combined

cycle which would enhance capacity by 47.5 MW by FY15. This would further

enhance efficiency of these plants. We expect the overall fleet efficiency of the

company is likely to jump by 3% to 41% in FY16. Moreover, the company is

converting its two units of 210MW each at Bin Qasim Power Station 1 (BQPS1) from

furnace oil to coal fired plant. The project is expected to be completed by the end of

FY17.

Adding-value through, subsequent reduction in company’s T&D losses The company has managed to control its Transmission & Distribution (T&D) losses,

trimming it down from 36% in FY09 to 25% in 9MFY14. This was achieved through 1)

Introduction of Ariel bundled (Temper proof) cables with primary focus on high loss

areas 3) Managing load shedding, with high loss areas facing more blackouts. Going

forward we have assumed 1% annual reduction till FY17.

Unbundling to unlock hidden potential K-Electric has decided to un-bundle the company’s current business divisions into

separate entities for electricity generation and transmission & distribution. We believe

this could unlock value in the company as under current tariff regime, there is no

inbuilt return for generation, only efficiency gains and reduction in T&D augments the

profitability. We expect this unbundling to be completed by end of FY16 as company

is in the process of engaging legal and tax consultants.

Financial Highlights FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F FY17FNet Sales 188,999 189,423 203,094 211,546 229,306 Cost of sales 160,177 164,549 168,530 172,357 176,142 Net income 6,729 8,848 15,096 19,361 33,392 EPS 0.24 0.32 0.55 0.70 1.21 P/E (x) 27.26 20.73 12.15 9.48 5.49 P/B (x) 3.39 2.91 2.35 1.88 1.40 ROE 14% 15% 21% 22% 29%ROA 2% 3% 5% 6% 10%Source: Company accounts and AHL Research

Target Price 10.82 Last Closing 6.6 UpsideKSE CodeBloomberg Code

Market Cap (US$ m)Outstanding Shares (m)12M Avg. Daily Turnover (m)12M High/Low (PKR)Major Shareholders

AnalystTahir [email protected]+92 -21-32462589

Share Holding Pattern

Stock Performance

www.arifhabibltd.com

Buy

63.9%KEL

KEL PA

Shares

KSE Pow er LtdGovernment of Pakistan

1,822.6 27,615.2

6.0 7.98 / 4.99

69%

24%

1% 2% 3% KES Power Limited

Govt of Pakistan

General Public

IFC

ADB

70%

100%

130%

160%

190%

Apr-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

n-13

Jul-1

3Au

g-13

Sep-

13O

ct-1

3N

ov-1

3D

ec-1

3Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4Ap

r-14

KEL KSE100

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K-Electric Limited

Recommendation – massive 64% upside potential – BUY! We initiate our coverage for KEL with DCF based Dec-14 price objective of PKR

10.82/share which implies a massive upside potential of 64% from current levels. Our

valuation is based on the cost of equity 17.3% and 11.7% cost of debt translating into

a WACC of 14.0%. The stock is currently trading at FY15F P/E of 12.15x and P/B of

2.35x. We thus recommend strong ‘BUY’ for the stock.

Discounted Cash Flow ValuationPKR mn FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Terminal

Free Cash Flow 16,529 18,659 20,534 33,513 53,753 417,545

WACC 14.0%

Present Value 17,658 17,485 16,872 24,155 33,985 263,988

Terminal Grow th Rate 1.00%

PV of FCFF 110,154

PV of Terminal Value 263,988

Total PV 374,142

Less: Net Debt (76,684)

Equity Value 297,458

No. of Shares (mn) 27,503

Target price (PKR) - Dec-14 10.82

Source: AHL Research

Key risks

T&D losses

Our sensitivity analysis suggest that for every 1% decrease (increase) in T&D losses

would lead towards positive (negative) impact of PKR 0.07/share (13% of FY15

earnings) on the bottom-line citrus peribus,

Fuel price risk

Any adverse movement in fuel prices would be negative for the company as the

burden of T&D will eventually amplify negative impact on earnings. Our sensitivity

with respect to fuel price increase suggest that for every 1% increase over our base

assumption (3% annually) would decrease our target price by 1.5% (EPS impact PKR

0.01/share)

Fuel mix risk

For every 1% variation in gas proportion of the fuel mix our target price would move

by 1.8% and would have negative bottom line impact of PKR 0.02/share. However, as

per the latest agreement with the SSGC for the secure supply of gas (230 mmcfd in

summers and 130 mmcfd in winters), the proportion of gas is expected to increase

going forward in our view.

WACC ParametersRisk Free Rate 10.0%Market Return 17.0%Beta 1.0 Cost of Equity 17.3%Cost of Debt 11.7%WACC 14.0%Source: AHL Research

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K-Electric Limited

Karachi Electric Limited – The tide is turning

Karachi Electric Limited (KEL) is back on track under the supervision of Abraaj

management with key focus on efficiency increase, capacity enhancement and T&D

losses reduction. The company moved out of the red zone in FY12 after 7 years of

underperformance. The primary reason for this turnaround was equity injection of

USD 361mn by Abraaj capital and USD 122mn by Government of Pakistan, which

was utilized to enhance capacity by 1010MW (since 2009) and reduced T&D losses

to 25.1% in 9MFY14 (35.9% in FY09)

We believe that company will carry on with the same momentum primarily focusing on

capacities addition and further reduction in T&D losses. To recall KEL operates under

a multiyear tariff which allows the company to have efficiency gains by increasing

capacities and reduction in T&D losses.

Tariff driven through improving efficiency and declining T&D losses

KEL is the only integrated power company in Pakistan with Generation, Transmission

and Distribution operations. Since its privatization, KEL operates under an efficiency

based tariff structure which requires efficiency improvement from Generation side and

reduction in T&D losses. This tariff is determined under Multi Year Tariff mechanism

by NEPRA, which had set tariffs for KEL in FY09, however next reset of tariff is due in

FY16.

The tariff is structured in a way that it has not built-in return while company will make

profits by improving efficiencies of the plant to earn fuel efficiency gains. In addition to

this, reduction in the T&D losses would further bolster the profitability of the company.

Exhibit: Demand and Supply Exhibit: Own generation and Power purchases

Sources: Company Financials and AHL Research

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F

Maximum Demand SupplyMW

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F

Units Generated Total Power PurchaseMW

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K-Electric Limited

The story behind this turnaround

Since the management control of Abraaj, the company’s focus remained on improving

efficiency by increasing generation capacity and rehabilitation of existing plants. The

company has added 1,010MW in its generation capacity by completing 4 of its major

project including BQPS-2 (560 MW), CCPP Korangi (220 MW) and GEJB Site and

Korangi (180 MW) and rehabilitation of BQPS-1 (50 MW) in the last 5 years. These

developments have improved fleet efficiency to 37.8% in 2013 from 30.7% five years

back.

Exhibit: Fleet Efficiency (Jan-Jun) Exhibit: Capital Expenditure FY09 to Date (USD mn)

Sources: Company Financials and AHL Research

The quest for efficiency goes on

The company is in process of converting its 3 plants (CCPP Korangi, GEJB Site and

GEJB Korangi) from open cycle to combined cycle which would enhance capacity by

47.5 MW till 2015. The CCPP Korangi capacity would increase by 27.5 MW resulting

in plant efficiency to improve to 45% (from 42.5%) by June 2014. While GEJB Site

and GEJB Korangi plants efficiency will improve from 37% to 42% by end of FY15,

with the addition of 10MW to each plant. Resultantly the overall fleet efficiency of the

company is likely to jump by 3% to 41% in FY16.

.

30.7%30.7%33.8%33.9%

35.6%37.8%39.3%40.3%41.3%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

2008

A

2009

A

2010

A

2011

A

2012

A

2013

A

2014

E

2015

F

2016

F

Fleet Efficiency (Jan-Jun)

18

104

140

726

- 200 400 600 800

Others

Tranmission

Distribution

Generation

(USD mn)

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K-Electric Limited

T&D reduction to remain the primary focus

The company has smartly tackled its transmission and distribution losses by

implementing measures like 1) Replacement of old electro mechanical type meters

with Electro static meter 2) Introduction of Ariel bundled (Temper proof) cables with

primary focus on high loss areas 3) Managing load shedding, at high loss areas

facing more blackouts and 4) Implementation of smart grid project. These

developments have already start bearing fruits which is evident from a massive

10.8% drop in T&D losses to 25.1% in 9MFY14 compared to 35.9% back in FY09.

This effectively has resulted in no load shed for 54% customers and T&D losses of

16% from 69% of the power distributed compared to average 25.1%. Management

foresees T&D losses going down by 2% annually whereas being on conservative side

we have assumed 1% annual reduction arriving at 22% in FY17. Our sensitivity

analysis suggest that for every 1% decrease in T&D losses would lead towards

incremental impact of PKR 0.07/share (13% of FY15 earnings) on the bottom-line,

citrus peribus.

Exhibit: Transmission and Distribution Losses Exhibit: Segment wise Losses

Sources: Company Financials and AHL Research

Improving cash recoveries; while public entities remain challenging

In addition to significant decrease in T&D losses, KEL is also striving hard for its cash

recoveries with Public Sector Entities (PSEs) which remains the most challenging

segment with recovery ratio of below 63% (FY13). On the other hand, 17 out of 28

Integrated Business Centre (IBCs) have recovery ratio of ~97% and Industrial

consumers have recovery ratio of ~99%. KE is managing its cash recovery systems

through various initiatives including Distribution Service Providers (DSPs) in high

losses area coupled with easy installment payment solutions.

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F

Total Units AvailableT&D LossesT&D Losses, % (RHS)MW

53.2% 50.5%

46.4%

28.8% 26.8% 26.2%

14.9% 13.7% 13.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Jun'11 Jun'12 Jun'13

High Loss Medium Loss Low Loss

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K-Electric Limited

Aggressive capacity addition ahead

KEL is in the process of converting its two units of 210MW each at Bin Qasim Power

Station 1(BQPS1) from furnace oil to coal fired plant. These units would be leased out

to ‘K-Energy’ (a proposed IPP) and the total amount of investment for the

aforementioned project is USD 350mn. NEPRA has already approved the Licensee

Proposed Modification (LSM) for the coal project and it is expected to be completed

by the end of Jan’17.

KEL also intends to install 660MW Green Field Coal Power Plant on Build, Operate

and Transfer (BOT) basis at one of its sites in Korangi and has already engaged

potential EPC contractor. The project is expected to come online by 2018. Company

is also considering 1,200MW coal fired projects at Thar Coal site. KEL has singed

Joint Development Agreement with Oracle Coal Fields for 600MW and pre-feasibility

study for 300MW has already been completed. Another 600MW mine-mouth coal

based power plant with Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC) at Thar Block II

is also on cards.

Transmission additions to further enhance system reliability

The company is focusing on improving its transmission network to minimize losses

and increase reliability of its Extra High Tension (EHT) network. Under the umbrella of

Abraaj management, 10 new grid stations and 249 new 11 KVA feeders have been

installed till FY13. In addition, 19 new high tension transmission circuits have been

deployed and 62 km of new transmission lines have been laid down. These measures

led towards significant decrease in transmission losses from 4.2% in FY09 to 1.5% in

FY13.

The company has started a project worth ~USD 400mn which is to be completed in 4

phases during five years. The first phase would require capital expenditure of ~USD

200-220mn and is expected to be completed in 2 years. The key highlights of first

phase include four new 132 KV Grid stations and 132 KV one double circuit and one

single circuit.

Exhibit: Capacity additions in the pipeline Exhibit: Transmission losses on declining trend

Sources: Company Financials and AHL Research

27 20

420

660

1200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

CCPP Korangi

GEJB Korangi and

SITE

BQPS -1 Coal

Coal Coal

MW

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

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K-Electric Limited

Claw back mechanism

The return of KEL is capped due to claw back mechanism (CBM), which was

implemented with the introduction of Multiyear tariff (MYT) in 2002. The mechanism

stipulates that when company’s return on Regulatory Asset base (EBIT to Total

regulatory Assets) exceeds the specified limit, surplus return shall be shared with

consumers through tariff reduction.

The government introduced CBM for K-electric as it was being privatized. Since other

distribution companies are also in process of privatization by the government, any

change or non-implementation of CBM by them would open an opportunity to revisit

the same for K-electric. We have assumed the same level of cap on profitability post

FY16 but the upward revision in the cap limit (>12%) cannot be ruled out. The

management wants to utilize claw back amount to invest in capital projects instead of

reduction in tariffs.

Exhibit: Subsidy to consumers through claw back Exhibit: Notified tariff and subsidy

Sources: Company Financials and AHL Research

Stable gas supply to support economical generation

The company has signed an agreement with Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) in

April 2014 for ensuring stable gas supply and payments of outstanding dues. As per

the agreement, SSGC will provide at least 210 mmcfd of gas during summer and 130

mmcfd during winter to KEL. Company is currently receiving ~230mmcfd of gas from

SSGC. We expect the company to receive ~195 mmcfd of gas in FY15 as compared

to average of 162mmcfd in last 3 years. We believe, with this agreement, fuel usage

would further tilt toward gas to 82% from 73% last year. Our estimates suggest that,

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PKR bn

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.0

FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A

Tariff- Subsidy Tariff- NotifiedPKR

Return on regulatory assets Additional Profit Sharing

Consumers KEL Below 12% 0% 100% 12% and below 15% 25% 75% 15% and below 18% 50% 50% More than 18% 75% 25%

Source: Nepra

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K-Electric Limited

for every 1% reduction in gas proportion of the fuel mix our price objective would

move by -1.8% and would have negative bottom line impact of PKR 0.02/share.

Exhibit: Consumption of Energy Exhibit: Gas Supply Trend

Sources: Company Financials and AHL Research

Un-bundling could unlock value

K-Electric has decided to un-bundle the company’s current business divisions into

separate entities for electricity generation, transmission and distribution. We believe

this could unlock value in the company as under current tariff regime, there is no

inbuilt return for generation, only efficiency gains and reduction in T&D augment the

profitability. The company with separate power generation entity will likely be eyeing

an IPP based return regime, which could enhance profitability as KEL is investing

substantially in new power projects and rehabilitations of existing plants to increase

efficiency. Whereas for transmission & distribution segment, multi-year tariff regime

could continue as it is likely to be implemented for other distribution companies post

privatization. The company’s next tariff revision under Multi-year tariff is due in FY16.

We expect this unbundling to be completed by end of FY16 as company is in process

of engaging legal and tax consultants.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Natural GasFurance & Other oilsTotal (RHS)

PKR bn

100.0

125.0

150.0

175.0

200.0

225.0

250.0

FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F

mmcfd

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K-Electric Limited

About the Company

K- Electric (KEL) incorporated in 1913, is a listed vertically integrated power utility

company holding exclusive rights for the city of Karachi and its adjourning areas

(approx. 6,500 sq. km). Its principle activities include generation, transmission and

distribution of electricity. It has a consumer base of ~2.5mn customers composed of

Residential (72.8%), Commercial (24.3%), Industrial (2.4%) & Public Sector (0.5%).

The Government of Pakistan (GoP) back in Nov’05 privatized the entity with 73%

transfer of ownership to a consortium comprising of Al Jomaih Group of Saudi Arabia

and National Industries of Kuwait. Further change of ownership in the entity occurred

in Sept’08, when Abraaj Capital (one of the world’s largest private equity player)

acquired a majority stake (69%) alongside complete management control. As of

FY13, Abraaj Capital has invested USD 361mn in KEL’s capital. Also in FY13,

International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Asian Development Bank (ADB)

converted its USD 25mn lent loan into equity resultantly in approximately 5% holding

in the company.

KEL has an installed power generation capacity of 2,341 MW (420 MWs is dedicated

for coal conversion) which includes a 49% capacity enhancement of 1,010 MW in the

past 5 years. Along with its own generation, the company has undertaken long-term

power purchase agreements with IPPs and WAPDA for 365 MW and 650 MW,

respectively.

Exhibit: Consumer Types Exhibit: Purchases of Energy

Sources: Company Financials and AHL Research

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Residential Commerical Industrial OtherTotal (RHS)

PKR bn

40 45

50 55

60 65

70 75

80 85

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

NTDC IPPsKANUPP PSMICTotal (RHS)

PKR bn

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K-Electric Limited

Financial Highlights PKR mn

Income Statement FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F FY17FTotal Revenue from Energy Sales 92,570 112,166 135,815 153,607 161,977 183,914 Tarif f Adjusments 70,029 76,615 53,391 49,269 49,352 45,175 Net Revenue from Energy Sales 162,816 188,999 189,423 203,094 211,546 229,306 Total expenditure 133,255 146,179 149,763 152,519 155,095 158,449 Other expenditure 13,301 13,998 14,786 16,011 17,262 17,693 Gross profit 16,260 28,821 24,874 34,563 39,190 53,163 Admin expenses 12,218 15,400 12,899 13,456 14,892 15,117 Other expenses 911 647 807 775 897 1,241 Other income 7,140 5,090 5,704 5,978 5,591 5,757 Operating prof it 10,271 17,865 18,485 27,860 30,785 45,045 Financial charges 7,702 13,960 11,292 14,214 12,924 11,652 PBT 2,569 3,904 7,193 13,646 17,861 33,392 PAT 2,620 6,729 8,848 15,096 19,361 33,392 EPS 0.10 0.24 0.32 0.55 0.70 1.21

Balance Sheet FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F FY17FTotal Shareholders' Equity 42,458 54,122 62,969 78,065 97,426 130,819 Non Current Liabilities 83,789 64,451 70,156 59,004 69,496 53,768 Current Liabilities 146,329 160,660 147,608 163,103 159,468 155,520 Total Liabilities and Equity 272,576 279,233 280,733 300,173 326,391 340,106 Non Current Assets 169,218 163,662 165,336 174,991 179,576 184,510 Current Assets 103,358 115,571 115,396 125,182 146,815 155,595 Total Assets 272,576 279,233 280,733 300,173 326,391 340,106

Cash Flow Statement FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F FY17FEBIT 10,271 17,865 18,485 27,860 30,785 45,045 Income Tax 52 2,824 1,655 1,450 1,500 - Depreciation and Amortization 7,105 8,885 8,488 9,336 10,186 10,192 EBITDA after Tax 17,428 29,574 28,628 38,646 42,471 55,237 Capex (8,641) (3,351) (10,162) (18,990) (14,771) (15,127) Changes in Working Capital (35,343) 5,376 (1,937) (997) (7,166) (6,597) Free Cash Flow to Firm (26,556) 31,599 16,529 18,659 20,534 33,513 Interest and Bank Charges (8,076) (14,028) (11,292) (14,214) (12,924) (11,652) Long Term Loans 36,385 (10,547) (4,245) 1,223 11,710 (20,620) Free Cash Flow to Equity (85) 5,606 40 4,783 18,497 476 Preference Shares - (6,000) - - - - Opening Cash Balance 1,269 1,184 790 830 5,614 24,110 Closing Cash Balance 1,184 790 830 5,614 24,110 24,586 Source: Company accounts and AHL Research

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K-Electric Limited

Key ratios

Analysis per share FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F FY17FEPS 0.10 0.24 0.32 0.55 0.70 1.21 DPS - - - - - - BVPS 1.54 1.97 2.29 2.84 3.54 4.76 Profitability ratios FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F FY17FGross margins 10% 15% 13% 17% 19% 23%Net margins 2% 4% 5% 7% 9% 15%Coverage ratio 1.33 1.28 1.64 1.96 2.38 3.87 P/E (x) 70.01 27.26 20.73 12.15 9.48 5.49 P/B (x) 4.32 3.39 2.91 2.35 1.88 1.40 Div yield 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Debt to equity 1.90 1.43 1.22 0.93 0.84 0.45 Debt to assets 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.24 0.25 0.17 Return on capital FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15F FY16F FY17FROA 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 10%ROE 6% 14% 15% 21% 22% 29%Source: Company accounts and AHL Research

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Disclaimer and related information

Analyst certification

The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views about the subject companies and their securities, and no part of the analysts’ compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Disclosures and disclaimer

This document has been prepared by investment analyst at Arif Habib Limited (AHL). AHL investment analysts occasionally provide research input to the company’s Corporate Finance and Advisory Department.

This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This publication is intended only for distribution to current and potential clients of the Company who are assumed to be reasonably sophisticated investors that understand the risks involved in investing in equity securities.

The information contained herein is based upon publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable. While every care was taken to ensure accuracy and objectivity, AHL does not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. In particular, the report takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. AHL reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, AHL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. AHL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries.

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for any investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his or her own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. AHL or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may be arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.

We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, company (is) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor to such company (is) or have other potential conflict or interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The disclosures of interest statements incorporated in this document are provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. AHL generally prohibits it analysis, persons reporting to analysts and their family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities that the analyst covers.

© 2014 Arif Habib Limited, Corporate Member of the Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad Stock Exchanges and Pakistan Merchentile Exchange. No part of this publication may be copied, reproduced, stored or disseminated in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Arif Habib Limited.

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K-Electric Limited

Contact Information Management Designation Email Telephone Shahid Ali Habib Chief Executive Officer [email protected] +92 -21-3240-1930

Equities Research Designation Email Telephone Syed Abid Ali Assistant Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3246-2589 Saad Khan Assistant Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3246-1106 Tahir Abbas Analyst [email protected] +92-21-3246-2589 Numair Ahmed Analyst [email protected] +92-21-3246-1106 Rashmina Lalani Analyst [email protected] +92-21-3246-0742 Rao Aamir Ali Manager Database [email protected] +92-21-3246-1106

Ovais Shakir Database Officer [email protected] +92-21-3246-1106

Equity Sales Designation Email Telephone Atif Raza Head of Marketing [email protected] +92-21-3246-2596 M. Yousuf Ahmed Senior Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3242-7050 Farhan Mansoori Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3242-9644 Syed Farhan Karim Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3244-6255 Afshan Aamir Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3244-6256 Faraz Naqvi Assistant Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3244-6254 Furqan Aslam Assistant Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3240-1932 Arsalan Khan Assistant Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3246-8285 Azhar Javaid Assistant Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3246-8312

Corporate Finance and advisory Designation Email Telephone M. Rafique Bhundi Senior Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3246-0741

Mahmood Kamal Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3246-2597

Syed Saquib Ali Assistant Vice President [email protected] +92-21-3246-2579

Product & Business Development Designation Email Telephone Faisal Khan Head of Business Development [email protected] +92-21-3246-6076

Money Market & FX Designation Email Telephone Zilley Askari Head of Inter Bank Brokerage [email protected] +92-21-3240-0223