Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
description
Transcript of Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
![Page 1: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Efficient Assimilation of Radar Data at High Resolution for
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction
Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao
Center for Analysis and Prediction of StormsUniversity of Oklahoma USA
![Page 2: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Radar Analysis & Assimilation Research Topics in CAPS
• Single-Doppler Velocity Retrieval (SDVR)• Bratseth-type Successive Correction
Analysis (ADAS) • 3DVAR at Storm Scale• Cloud & hydrometeor analysis with
latent heating adjustment• Phase/Position error correction methods• Ensemble-Kalman Filter at Storm Scale
![Page 3: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Radar Analysis & Assimilation Research Topics in CAPS
• Single-Doppler Velocity Retrieval (SDVR)• Bratseth-type Successive Correction
Analysis (ADAS) • 3DVAR at Storm Scale• Cloud & hydrometeor analysis with
latent heating adjustment• Phase/Position error correction methods• Ensemble-Kalman Filter at Storm Scale
![Page 4: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
CAPS 3DVAR Radar Assimilation Flow Chart
Multi-scale3DVAR
External Model Interpolator
Radar 1Radar 2
Radar 3Radar 4
Radar N
Radar QC &Remapper
METAR
Mesonets
RawinsondesAircraft
Cloud Analysis& Latent Heat
Adjustment
ARPS NWP Model ARPS-to-WRF
WRF NWP Model
Sat IR
Sat VisSatellite
Remapper
WindProfilers
AIRS Soundings
![Page 5: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Radar Quality Control & Remapping
• Quality Control– AP & Clutter detection – Doppler radial velocity unfolding
• Remapping– Matches data spacing to model resolution – Eases reflectivity mosaicking– Can be viewed as a form of “superobbing”– Local least-squares interpolation/smoothing
Quadratic in horizontal, Linear in vertical
![Page 6: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Remapping to x = 2 km
![Page 7: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
CAPS 3DVAR System• General form
• Rewritten in incremental form• Error correlation implemented by means of
a recursive filter.• Can be applied in multi-grid fashion• Dynamic constraint:
weak constraint: anelastic mass continuity
xyxRyxxxBxxx coTobTb JHHJ 11
2
1
2
1)(
22
2
1DJ cc
z
w
y
v
x
uD
![Page 8: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Radar Ingest- Reflectivity
• Cloud analysis system– Remapped Satellite Images (Vis and IR)– Surface observations of cloud bases– Reflectivity converted to hydrometeors
Rain, hail, dry snow, wet snow
• Cloud water quantity and latent heating estimated using a lifted-parcel with entrainment
![Page 9: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
3DVAR Applied to Fort Worth Tornadic Storm
• Fort Worth, Texas area tornadoes of 28 Mar 2000
• 3-km ARPS Forecast 23 UTC-06 UTCnested in 9-km forecast 18 UTC – 06 UTC
• Six 10-min analysis cycles (1 hour) using NEXRAD data 22 UTC-23 UTC.
• Experiments:– Wind and Cloud Assimilated– Wind Alone– Cloud Alone
Ming Hu et al. papers submitted to MWR
![Page 10: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
1.5 h ForecastWind & Cloud Assim
00:30 UTCRadar Reflectivity
![Page 11: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
1.5 h ForecastCloud Only Assim
1.5 h ForecastWind Only Assim
![Page 12: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
00:30 UTC Radar Reflectivity
1.5 h Forecast Surface Vorticity
Wind & Cloud Assim
![Page 13: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
1.5 h Forecast Surface Vorticity
Cloud Only Assim
1.5 h Forecast Surface VorticityWind Only Assim
![Page 14: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Fort Worth Case Summary
• Similar situation observed for second tornado about 15 min later.
• Good forecast results for this case primarily due to cloud & diabatic portion of analysis.
• Winds provide improvement to forecasted vorticity.
• Applicable to on-going convection; other case studies show utility of radial wind assimilation in convection-initiation forecast situations.
![Page 15: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
1-hour Forecast (1-hr Accum Precip)17-May-2004 01:00
Radar Precip Obs
WRFIC: Eta Interp
WRFIC: ADAS w/Radar
![Page 16: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
2004 Real-time Use Summary
• Spin-up at 4-km is largely eliminated using radar and satellite data.
• Good results even with a static analysis-initialization.
![Page 17: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Sample of Ongoing & Future Work with These Tools
• Testing different lengths of assimilation cycle and total assimilation window length
• Will also test using 3DVAR output in Incremental Analysis Updating
• More real-time high-resolution test periodsin collaboration with SPC/NSSL
• Smaller-domain real-time system run dailyhttp://www.caps.ou.edu/wx
![Page 18: Keith Brewster, Ming Hu, Ming Xue and Jidong Gao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033105/56815018550346895dbdfe56/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
WSN05 6 Sep 2005Toulouse, France
Credits
• CAPS Research Scientists– Ming Xue, Jidong Gao, Dan Weber, Kelvin
Droegemeier
• CAPS Model and Real Time System Support– Kevin Thomas and Yunheng Wang
• CAPS Students– Ming Hu, Dan Dawson
• WSN05 Conference Travel Support OU School of Meteorology WeatherNews Chair funds