Keeping an Eye on the Islands:

Cooperative Remote Monitoring of the Spratly Islands in the South China

SeaVipin Gupta and Adam Bernstein

Systems Research Dept. 8112Sandia National Laboratory

Livermore, California

A Multidisciplinary Collaboration• Funded by the U.S. Institute for Peace

– investigate the political, practical, and technical aspects of a possible cooperative monitoring regime in the Spratlys

• Contributors – John C. Baker GW SPI, project director

– Drs. Vipin Gupta and Adam Bernstein, image analysis

– Prof. Bradford Thomas, GW Geography Dept. - regional remote sensing capabilities

– David Wiencek, Int’l. Security Group -political analysis

– Kevin O’Connell, RAND - consultant on commercial imagery

– Dr. Ray Williamson, GW SPI - consultant, remote sensing

– Dr. Mark Valencia, East-West Center - Spratly disputes

The South China Sea The Spratlys

Conflict and Control • States with claims to some or all islands:

– China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan• have occupied islands and occasionally fought

– Brunei, Malaysia• have made claims and/or occupy islands

• legal status hard to determine:– a variety of applicable laws and customs– countries interpret or ignore these as they see fit.

What’s done, what can be seen“Invisible” Activities

• Declaration of Ownership

• Sale of Drilling Rights

• Firing on/Sinking Rival’s Ships

• Arrest of Civilians

• Encouragement of Tourism

Potentially Visible

• Occupation with Troops, Buildings, Markers

• Drill Rig Construction

• Tourist Activities

• Landing Strips

• Military/Civil Ships

Possible Solutions

• Fight it out - Naval skirmishes, arrests, potentially hostile overflights

• Increase reliance on cooperative remotesensing

What kind of monitoring can be done with satellites and/or aerial overflights?

Ideally, military and civil intrusions could be conclusively id’d (1 m imagery) But - what can be done now ?

Selected PlatformsRadarsat ~8 m all weather; one image

acquired

Indian IRS-1C 6 m five images acquired

KVR-1000 2 m no images of interest

Ikonos-1 1 m tasked; launch failureApril 28 99

AerialImagery

20 cm press archives

Selected IslandsIsland Current

Occupant

Mischief Reef China

Thitu Island Phillipines

Subi Reef China

Commodore Reef Phillipines

All these have:

1. reportedactivity, suchas shipsairstrips,buildings

2. Availablesatellite and/oraerial images.

Alicoa AnnieYuan Anha

------- “controls” with noknown activity

Thitu contrast inverted Radarsat Image- 1.3 km airstrip

ThituAerial images courtesy Agence France-Presse