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Kaufland Mornington

Economic Impact Assessment

November 2018

DRAFT

MacroPlan

MELBOURNE

Level 16

330 Collins Street

Melbourne VIC 3000

(03) 9600 0500

SYDNEY

Level 52

19 Martin Place

Sydney NSW 2000

(02) 9221 5211

BRISBANE

Level 15

111 Eagle Street

Brisbane QLD 4000

(07) 3221 8166

GOLD COAST

Level 2

89 - 91 Surf Parade

Broadbeach QLD 4218

(07) 3221 8166

PERTH

Level 1

89 St Georges Terrace

Perth WA 6000

(08) 9225 7200

Prepared for: Mornington Peninsula Shire Council

MacroPlan staff responsible for this report:

Brian Haratsis, Executive Chairman

Ellis Davies, Senior Manager – Retail

Adam Zhong, Consultant – Retail

Table of contents

Executive summary i

Introduction iii

Section 1: Context 1

1.1 Kaufland – International 1

1.2 Kaufland Australia 2

1.3 Supermarket state of play 5

1.4 Site context 8

1.5 Planning context 12

Section 2: Trade area analysis 15

2.1 Trade area definition 15

2.2 Trade area population 18

2.3 Socio-demographic profile 20

2.4 Retail expenditure 23

Section 3: Competition 28

Section 4: Assessment of supermarket need 34

4.1 Supermarket need in walkable catchment 34

4.2 Supermarket need in trade area 34

4.3 Additional supermarket need to address population growth 36

4.4 Activity centre hierarchy and out-of-centre considerations 37

Section 5: Sales outlook and impacts 39

5.1 Estimated sales potential 39

5.2 Estimated impacts 41

5.3 Potential community benefits 44

5.4 Other considerations 45

Section 6: Conclusion 46

Appendix tables 47

Appendix maps 51

Kaufland MorningtonEconomic Impact Assessment

i

Executive summary

Kaufland has identified a site at 1158 Nepean Highway, Mornington as one of six potential

sites in metropolitan Melbourne for their entry into the Australian marketplace. The site is

current zoned Industrial 3, and Kaufland would require the land to be rezoned to be

permissible. The Mornington Peninsula Shire Council currently does not have a formal

position on the proposed Kaufland application and have engaged MacroPlan to assess need

for a Kaufland supermarket at the subject site, as well as to consider the potential impact it

may have on the primacy of the Mornington Activity Centre and more broadly on other

activity centres in the Mornington Peninsula. Based on our analysis, the following provides

our views on potential implications from the proposed development.

Our analysis indicates that the existing provision of supermarket floorspace in the Kaufland

Mornington main trade area is generally at, and will remain at or above, the average for

metropolitan Melbourne throughout the forecast period. Therefore, the existing provision of

supermarkets is considered to be already adequately serving the Mornington Peninsula

population, and there is no clear need for a large supermarket at the subject site.

The sales potential for Kaufland Mornington is estimated at between $42 - 46 million in FY21

(assumed to be the first full year of trade). Due to the scale, offer and likely destinational

attraction of the supermarket, it is likely to serve a large trade area encompassing some

240,000 residents at 2018. As the trading impacts are expected to spread across the

Mornington Peninsula, as a result of the broad destinational draw of Kaufland, modest

trading impacts are assessed at surrounding activity centres in the region. The most affected

retail facilities are assessed to be the Aldi supermarket at Peninsula Hub, as well as the

supermarket at the Mornington Major Activity Centre and the Mount Eliza and Bentons

Square Town Centres.

The subject site, together with the adjoining Peninsula Hub Homemaker centre, is zoned

Industrial 3 and sits outside of the Activity Centres hierarchy as detailed in the Mornington

Peninsula Activity Centre Strategy. In our view, the development of the Kaufland Mornington

Executive summary


ii

supermarket could affect the Activity Centres hierarchy, and therefore it could be concluded

that the development may undermine the Activity Centre policy, in that it will create a new

activity centre at the site. However, we do not expect that the Kaufland development will

affect the primacy of the Mornington Major Activity Centre.

Overall, the development of a Kaufland supermarket at the subject site is not expected to

have a significant impact on any one retail precinct in the surrounding area, and is not likely

to affect the viability of any retailer in the area. It is also not considered to impact on the

primacy of the Mornington MAC and will also will likely result in a number of community

benefits. However, there is not considered a need for a large scale supermarket in the local

area, and its development in an out-of-centre location is likely to have implications on the

Activity Centres hierarchy, as it will effectively result in the creation of a new Activity Centre.

The potential impact on the Activity Centres hierarchy arising from the out-of-centre

development needs to be considered against the potential benefits of the proposal.


iii

Introduction

German operator Kaufland are planning to enter the Australian supermarket sector, with an

initial proposal to open a network of six locations in metropolitan Melbourne.

This report presents an independent assessment of the potential for the proposed Kaufland

supermarket at 1158 Nepean Highway Mornington, 3 km east of the Mornington Major

Activity Centre. The report also examines the likely economic impacts on surrounding activity

centres arising from this proposed development.

This report is presented in six sections as follows:

Section 1 presents an overview of Kaufland and the state of play of the supermarket

sector in Australia. This section also details the site and planning context of the proposed

Kaufland store in Mornington.

Section 2 reviews the trade area likely to be served by a proposed Kaufland supermarket

at the subject site, detailing current and projected population levels, as well as the socio-

demographic profile and current and future retail expenditure capacity of the trade area

population.

Section 3 outlines the competitive retail context within which the Kaufland supermarket

will operate, including proposed developments of relevance.

Section 4 provides a needs assessment for a Kaufland supermarket at the subject site.

Section 5 provides estimates of sales potential for the proposed Kaufland supermarket, as

well as a review of the potential impacts the development may have on existing centres

in the area, as well as an overview of possible community benefits.

Section 6 presents our concluding remarks and preliminary views on the proposed

Kaufland Mornington development.


1

Section 1: Context

This section of the report presents an overview of Kaufland and the state of play of the

supermarket sector in Australia. The site and planning context of the proposed Kaufland

supermarket in Mornington are also detailed.

1.1 Kaufland – International

Kaufland is a German supermarket chain and is a subsidiary of the Schwarz Group, which is

the fourth largest retailer globally by revenue. The Schwarz Group is headquartered in

Germany and operates 11,730 stores in 28 European countries, employing a workforce of

approximately 400,000. The Group also operates the Lidl supermarket banner, a discount

supermarket operation which is a chief competitor to Aldi. For the year ending

February 2018, the Schwarz Group recorded revenue of AUD$153.3 billion (EUR 96.9 billion),

a growth of 7.4% from the previous year.

The Kaufland brand operates 1,250 stores in Germany, the Czech Republic (first opened in

1998), Slovakia (2000), Poland (2001), Croatia (2001), Romania (2005), Bulgaria (2006) and

Moldova (2018) and is now planning to open a network of stores across Australia. For the

year ending February 2018, the Kaufland banner recorded revenue of AUD$34.9 billion

(EUR 22.3 billion), a growth of 3.0% from the previous year, accounting for over a third of the

overall sales of the Schwarz Group.

Section 1: Context


2

1.2 Kaufland Australia

The store format which Kaufland is planning to operate in Australia will be large in footprint

compared with traditional supermarkets, ranging in size of between 5,000 – 7,000 sq.m

(GLA). By way of comparison the average size of full-line supermarkets currently operated by

Coles and Woolworths is around 3,500 sq.m. The size of Kaufland would, however, be far

smaller than Costco Warehouses, which are generally between 12,000 – 14,000 sq.m in size.

Branded as a hypermarket, Kaufland stores are likely to encompass a full-line supermarket

offer, combined with elements typically found in discount department stores in Australia.

The large footprint will allow Kaufland stores to offer an extensive range of fresh food and

groceries, complemented by supporting non-food goods which are part of the staple

supermarket offer such as stationery, toys, household goods and personal hygiene goods.

Kaufland stores could also potentially include a range of discount department store type

non-food goods such as crockery, cutlery, cookware, small electrical appliances and other

homewares, as well as a small provision of apparel and bedding products. Each Kaufland

store is also planned to dedicate a small provision of ancillary floorspace to accommodate a

café as well as other complementary uses.

According to the Kaufland in Victoria – Consumer and Economic Impacts report prepared by

Dimasi & Co, some of the key facets of Kaufland’s operation is to include the following:

Regional sourcing, with Kaufland stating the aim is to source some products from the

surrounding region to shorten the supply chain and promote the freshness of its food

products for customers.

New products, with Kaufland planning to introduce a new range of international labels

which are not currently available in Australia, as well as provide an extensive range of its

own private label products.

Kaufland is likely to operate as a destinational shopping attraction. Analysis undertaken by

Morgan Stanley has indicated that Kaufland could generate up to $480 million in Australian

revenue by 2020. Morgan Stanley believes Kaufland will invest heavily in fresh food, which

Section 1: Context


3

could further put pressure on the margins in those categories, prompting the likes of

Woolworths and Coles to further lower prices.

Kaufland are planning to open at six locations in Melbourne – Coolaroo, Chirnside Park,

Dandenong, Epping, Oakleigh and Mornington, which is the subject of this assessment.

Map 1.1 illustrates the locations of this proposed network, while Appendix Maps A1 – A10

illustrate the site and planning context of each identified site. The sites are mostly located

within or close to already well established Activity Centres and are zoned Commercial 1,

Commercial 2 or Activity Centre, except Oakleigh South and Mornington, as summarised

below:

The Chirnside Park site is located within the Chirnside Park Major Activity Centre and is

zoned Commercial 1.

The Coolaroo site is located adjacent to the Roxburgh Park Major Activity Centre and is

zoned Commercial 2.

The Dandenong site is located approximately 1.5 km north of the Dandenong

Metropolitan Activity Centre and is zoned Commercial 2.

The Epping site is located within the Epping Metropolitan Activity Centre and is zoned

Activity Centre – Schedule One.

The Oakleigh South site (which is also planned to include the head office) is located

1.7 km west of the Clayton Major Activity Centre and is zoned Industrial 1.

The Mornington site is located 2.1 km (straight line) and 3 km (by road) east of the

Mornington Major Activity Centre and is zoned Industrial 3.

Therefore, the Mornington site is one of two sites, along with Oakleigh South, which are on

Industrial zoned land, while three of the six sites (Chirnside Park, Coolaroo and Epping) are

situated within or adjacent to Major Activity Centres.

Map 1.1: Kaufland MorningtonRegional context and location of other Kaufland sites

Section 1: Context


5

1.3 Supermarket state of play

This sub-section provides an overview of the supermarket sector in Australia.

The main full line supermarket operators, Woolworths and Coles, have traditionally

exercised an almost duopolistic control over the supermarket sector. Over the past decade,

Coles has substantially outperformed Woolworths, including a 7-year period ending

September 2016, where Coles outgrew its main rival on a comparable sales basis in 28

consecutive quarters. Coles has invested heavily in its brand, and now has the perception of

being cheaper and having better service on the back of the very successful ‘Down Down’ and

‘Everyday’ campaigns. Following the appointment of Brad Banducci as CEO, Woolworths has

seen a rebound in its performance, underpinned by heavy investment in product prices and

in store service, as well as the building of stronger relationships with core suppliers.

Woolworths easily outstripped Coles in FY17 and FY18, recording comparable sales growth of

3.6% and 4.3% respectively.

The majority of Woolworths and Coles supermarkets are full line, which are generally around

3,000 - 4,000 sq.m in size. Both retailers operate small format stores in CBD and inner-city

locations under the Woolworths Metro banner (300 - 800 sq.m), and Coles Central brands

(800 – 1,200 sq.m). Coles has also recently developed a small format store for inner and

middle ring locations under the Cole Local banner, which is akin to the failed more up-

market supermarket Thomas Dux.

Coles also operates larger supermarkets of around 5,500 sq.m, which are more comparable

in scale to the proposed Kaufland supermarket. These supermarkets, located at Eden Rise

and Stockland Traralgon in Melbourne, include a traditional full-line supermarket offer as

well as provisions of basic apparel, toys, stationery, homewares, entertainment, sporting

goods, leisure goods and outdoor furnishings.

The independent supermarket sector operates primarily under the IGA banner, particularly

for larger independent stores. There is also a small number of FoodWorks branded stores, as

well as some regional brands such as Foodlands and Drakes in South Australia and

Queensland. In total, there are around 1,350 independent supermarkets of over 500 sq.m in

size.

Section 1: Context


6

Costco

Costco operates on a membership basis, with members paying an annual fee in order to

make bulk or large scale purchases at the stores. The offer is broad, incorporating food as

well as non-food items, from fresh food and grocery products to everyday apparel, electrical

appliances, automotive supplies, health and beauty products and general household items.

Costco, while being a bulk seller and different from traditional retailers, still competes within

the same retail market as the traditional retail operators such as supermarkets and discount

department stores, as well as specialty shops to a lesser degree.

The first Costco warehouse in Australia opened in August 2009, at Melbourne’s Docklands,

and proved to be a highly successful store, with an estimated 1.5 million visitors annually.

Costco currently operates ten stores across Australia – four in Melbourne; three in Sydney;

two in Brisbane and one each in Canberra and Adelaide.

Costco’s individual store performances are not readily available, however, based on industry

reports it is widely accepted that Costco is a very high volume retailer, with in excess of

$200 million in sales being achieved by some stores at present. On an average basis, sales

per store are broadly estimated to be in the order of $150-$180 million on average, at an

average productivity level of around $10,000-$12,000 per sq.m.

In addition to being a high sales generator, Costco has the ability to draw trade from a very

wide region. Costco stores have destinational appeal and serve very large trade areas,

typically between 500,000 to 1 million people. Costco, like the new flagship international

retailers, will only build a small number of stores, thus a locality which has a Costco store

becomes a major customer attractor.

Section 1: Context


7

Aldi

Aldi opened its first Australian store in Sydney in 2001, and since then has expanded

aggressively, firstly across the eastern seaboard capital cities which at 2016, saw 396 Aldi

stores operating in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and the ACT. Since then, Aldi also pushed into

the SA and WA markets with the operator opening its 500th store in Australia in November

2017. At the start of 2018, research conducted by Roy Morgan estimated that Aldi had

captured over 13% of the $90.3 billion supermarket sector.

At the core of Aldi’s strategy is a range of approximately 1,500 product lines per store,

predominantly private labels. This is compared to the 25,000 - 30,000 product lines of an

average full-line Coles or Woolworths supermarket, with the smaller range allowing Aldi to

achieve comparative advantages in store footprint (between 1,300 - 1,700 sq.m which is half

the size of a full-line supermarket), warehousing infrastructure and supplier discounts. In

turn, a proportion of these savings are passed onto the consumer, gaining a competitive

racing edge over other operators in the sector.

The Aldi store format has seen a number of updates since its inception, including an

increased emphasis on fresh food (2016), while the latest store format updates places a

particular focus on the fit-out of its stores, set to feature clearer signage, redesigned

shelving, expanded wooden produce bays, energy efficient LED lighting and extended

chillers. Aldi’s new store format require around 1,700 sq.m, compared to older store

openings which were smaller at around 1,300 sq.m.

The aggressive expansion of Aldi, its price competitive edge and the overall value proposition

of its products and offer have attracted a wide-ranging demographic. Research conducted by

Nielsen, showed that in 2006, 38 per cent of Aldi shoppers were from low-income groups

and just 26 per cent were from high-income families. By 2014, the proportion of high-income

shoppers had risen to 50 per cent.

Research conducted by Roy Morgan has shown that Woolworths holds the dominant market

share in the $90.3 billion supermarket sector in FY17, capturing 35.7%, followed by Coles at

33.2%, Aldi at 13.2% and IGA/Metcash at 9.3%.

Section 1: Context


8

1.4 Site context

The subject site for the proposed Kaufland supermarket is at 1158 Nepean Highway,

Mornington, a seaside suburb of Melbourne located approximately 57 km south-east of the

Melbourne CBD. The subject site is located approximately 3 km east, by road, of the

Mornington Major Activity Centre (refer Map 1.2) and is currently zoned Industrial 3 (refer

Map 1.3).

Nepean Highway is the primary traffic route connecting inner eastern Melbourne with the

outer south-eastern suburbs. The highway runs throughout the Mornington Peninsula Shire

linking Mornington to tourist hotspots such as Dromana, Rye, Portsea and Sorrento to the

south and south-west. The Nepean Highway, near Bungower Road, accommodates 29,000

average daily traffic movements in both directions in 2017 (VicRoads Traffic Data).

The proposed Kaufland Mornington site is located adjacent to the Peninsula Hub, a primarily

large format retail centre, which encompasses a number of national homemaker and

appliances tenants such as Harvey Norman, The Good Guys, Lincraft, Bedshed, Snooze, Early

Settlers and Officeworks. The centre also contains an Aldi supermarket, which opened in

April 2016, while a Bunnings Warehouse is located immediately south of the centre.

Figure 1.1 illustrates the indicative layout of the proposed Kaufland Mornington store. The

plans show that the supermarket Gross Leasable Area (GLA) is to be 5,691 sq.m (including

liquor, back of house, administration and services). The development is also planned to

include two smaller tenancies of 520 sq.m and 34 sq.m respectively, as well as internal mall

area of 376 sq.m.

Map 1.2: Kaufland MorningtonSite location

Map 1.3: MorningtonPlanning context

Figure 1.1

Section 1: Context


12

1.5 Planning context

The Mornington Peninsula Activity Centres Strategy, adopted by Council in April 2018, is a

review and update of the previous Activity Centres Strategy, adopted by Council in 2005. A

key element of the previous strategy is the identification of an activity centres hierarchy

where centres of different hierarchical levels perform different but complementary roles.

The 2018 Strategy continues to adopt the hierarchy approach towards guiding activity

centres development in the Mornington Peninsula (refer Figure 1.2). It envisions that the

centres will continue to be the focus for new retail development and key locations for

businesses, community activity and social interaction, and that future development will

respect and be appropriate to the character, role and function of each centre.

The key strategic objective and actions in the Mornington Peninsula Activity Centres Strategy

of relevance to the proposed Kaufland Mornington supermarket include:

The continued support of the activity centres hierarchy…’as a beneficial planning tool to

guide the location, type and volume of new and/or expanded retail…ensuring this

hiearacyhy is reference when considering development applications (and) proposals for

out-of-centre development’

‘To provide an effective and efficient activity centre hierarchy that provides high levels of

service to residents, visitors and tourists’.

To ‘re-affirm the primacy of Mornington Peninsula’s Major Activity Centre in the activity

centres hierarchy and as the regional focus for a wide range of activities, including

retail…reflecting this direction when developing future policies and action which are

relevant to activity centres, and encourage development that consolidates the primacy of

these centres’.

‘To support the growth of existing centres to meet increased demand’.

‘To accommodate large-format homemaker retailing and mixed-business use at Enterprise

Area locations…These are areas located outside traditional activity centres which typically

Section 1: Context


13

comprise a broad mix of businesses including homemaker retail, showrooms, trade

supplies, light industry, and other businesses and community facilities...’

‘To closely monitor out-of-centre development. Ensure that commercial development

occurring away from activity centres identified in the hierarchy contributes to the

achievement of a net community benefit and does not undermine activity centre policy’.

The Activity Centres Strategy outlines that the Peninsula Hub Homemaker Centre, which

adjoins the subject site, sits outside of the Activity Centres hierarchy. The out-of-centre

homemaker centre contains an estimated 15,000 sq.m of large format retail floorspace, as

well as an Aldi supermarket of approximately 1,500 sq.m.

Section 1: Context


14

Figure 1.2: Activity Centre HierarchySource: Mornington Peninsula Activity Centres Strategy, May 2018


15

Section 2: Trade area analysis

This section of the report reviews the trade area likely to be served by a proposed Kaufland

supermarket at the subject site, detailing current and projected population levels, as well as

the socio-demographic profile and current and future retail expenditure capacity of the trade

area population.

2.1 Trade area definition

The extent of the trade area or catchment that is served by any shopping centre or retail

facility is shaped by the interplay of a number of critical factors. These factors include:

The relative attraction of the centre, in comparison with alternative competitive retail

facilities. The factors that determine the strength and attraction of any particular centre

are primarily its scale and composition (in particular the major trader or traders that

anchor the centre); its layout and ambience; and carparking, including access and ease of

use.

The proximity and attractiveness of competitive retail centres. The locations,

compositions, quality and scale of competitive retail facilities all serve to define the

extent of the trade area which a shopping centre is effectively able to serve.

The available road network and public transport infrastructure, which determine the ease

(or difficulty) with which customers are able to access a shopping centre.

Significant physical barriers which are difficult to negotiate, and can act as delineating

boundaries to the trade area served by an individual shopping centre.



16

The trade area defined for the Kaufland Mornington supermarket primarily reflects the

following considerations:

The high profile location of the subject site on a major highway which is exposed to

29,000 average daily vehicular movements.

The proposed scale and offer of Kaufland, with is a hypermarket that combines a full-line

supermarket offer as well as a range of non-food items.

The network of competitive retail facilities in the surrounding region with particular

regard for supermarket and discount department store anchors.

Map 2.1 illustrates the main trade area defined for the proposed Kaufland Mornington store,

which encompasses the Mornington Peninsula Shire as well as part of the City of Frankston.

The trade area is defined to contain a primary sector, four secondary sectors and a tertiary

sector, described as follows:

The primary sector encompasses the suburbs of Mornington, Mount Eliza and Mount

Martha, as well as parts of Moorooduc;

The secondary north sector covers the of Frankston, Frankston South and Langwarrin

South, as well as parts of Langwarrin and Pearcedale;

The secondary east sector contains the suburbs of Somerville, Tyabb and Baxter, as well

as the remaining parts of Moorooduc;

The secondary south-east sector encompasses Hastings, Crib Point and Bittern, as well as

the adjoining localities such as Tuerong and Balnarring.

The secondary south sector contains the suburbs of Rosebud, Rosebud West, McCrae,

Dromana, Safety Beach, Arthurs Seat and Red Hill.

The tertiary south sector encompasses the remaining southern parts of the Mornington

Peninsula Shire and includes tourist hotspots such as Rye, Portsea and Sorrento.

In combination the primary and secondary sectors form the main trade area, while the

total trade area also includes the tertiary sector.

Map 2.1: Kaufland MorningtonTrade area and competition



18

2.2 Trade area population

Table 2.1 details the estimated current and future population levels within the Kaufland

Mornington total trade area. This information has been collected from a range of sources

including the following:

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census of Population and Housing (2011, 2016);

ABS Dwellings Approvals and Estimated Residential Population Data (2011 – 2016);

Population projections prepared by forecast.id for the Mornington Peninsula Shire

(updated in November 2017) and the City of Frankston (updated September 2018);

Victoria in Future (2016) population projections prepared by the Victorian Government;

and

Other investigations of future residential developments.

The Kaufland total trade area population is estimated at close to 240,000 at mid-2018,

including 218,000 in the main trade area and 64,000 in the primary sector. Over the most

recent intercensal period (2011 to 2016), the total trade area population increased by 1.3%

or almost 3,000 residents per annum.

Over the forecast period to 2031, the Kaufland total trade area population is projected to

grow at a modest rate of 0.7% to reach 263,000, including 240,000 in the main trade area. All

sectors within the Kaufland Mornington trade area are forecast to exhibit similar rates of

population growth (i.e. below 1%), including the primary sector, which is projected to reach

a population of 70,500 at 2031, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 0.7%.



19

Trade area sector 2011 2016 2018 2021 2026 2031

Primary 58,710 62,960 63,960 65,460 67,960 70,460

Secondary sectors

• North 72,080 75,320 76,420 78,070 80,820 83,320

• East 16,620 17,380 17,680 18,130 18,630 19,130

• Sth-east 22,060 24,040 24,640 25,390 26,640 27,640

• South 31,060 34,520 35,320 36,220 37,720 39,220

Total secondary 141,820 151,260 154,060 157,810 163,810 169,310

Main trade area 200,530 214,220 218,020 223,270 231,770 239,770

Tertiary sectors

• South 19,840 20,960 21,360 21,810 22,560 23,310

Total trade area 220,370 235,180 239,380 245,080 254,330 263,080

Trade area sector 2011-16 2016-18 2018-21 2021-26 2026-31

Primary 850 500 500 500 500

Secondary sectors

• North 648 550 550 550 500

• East 152 150 150 100 100

• Sth-east 396 300 250 250 200

• South 692 400 300 300 300

Total secondary 1,888 1,400 1,250 1,200 1,100

Main trade area 2,738 1,900 1,750 1,700 1,600

Tertiary sectors

• South 224 200 150 150 150

Total trade area 2,962 2,100 1,900 1,850 1,750

Trade area sector 2011-16 2016-18 2018-21 2021-26 2026-31

Primary 1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

Secondary sectors

• North 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%

• East 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5%

• Sth-east 1.7% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7%

• South 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

Total secondary 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%

Main trade area 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

Tertiary sectors

• South 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

Total trade area 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%

*As at JuneSource: ABS Census 2016; Victoria In Future 2016; Forecast.id; MacroPlan Dimasi

Table 2.1

Kaufland Mornington trade area population, 2011-2031*

Average annual growth (no.)

Forecast populationEstimated population

Average annual growth (%)



20

2.3 Socio-demographic profile

Table 2.2 and Chart 2.1 detail the socio-demographic profile of the Kaufland Mornington

trade area population, sourced from the 2016 ABS Census of Population and Housing. The

profile is compared with benchmarks for metropolitan Melbourne and Australia, with the

key points to note including the following:

Main trade area residents earn incomes which are 10% below the metropolitan

Melbourne benchmark on both a per capita and household basis. The only sector to

record above average earnings capacity is the primary sector population, with residents in

this key sector earning incomes 5.6% above the metropolitan Melbourne benchmark.

The trade area has an older age profile compared to the metropolitan Melbourne

average, driven by a below average proportion of adults aged 20-39 years, as well as an

above average representation of residents aged 50 years and over.

The home ownership level of households in the main trade area, at 74.1%, is above the

metropolitan Melbourne, underpinned by households who own their homes outright.

This is particularly evident in the primary and secondary south sectors, where outright

home ownership is estimated at 41.1% and 43% respectively, compared with the

metropolitan Melbourne benchmark of 31.4%.

Residents in the Kaufland Mornington main trade area are predominantly Australia born,

accounting for almost 80% of residents.

Traditional families (i.e. households comprising couples with dependent children) account

for at 41.3% of all households in the main trade area, which is below the metropolitan

Melbourne average of 47.8%. All sectors exhibit a below average representation of

traditional families, except the primary sector, which is on par with the respective

benchmark. The next most prevalent household types within the Kaufland Mornington

main trade area are couples without children (24.3%) and lone person households

(12.4%), both of which are above the metropolitan Melbourne benchmark and reflect the

older age profile of the region.



21

Primary Main Tertiary Melb Metro Aust.Census item sector North East Sth-east South TA South avg. avg.

Per capita income $43,701 $35,211 $36,140 $34,332 $32,422 $37,233 $39,087 $41,365 $39,800

Var. from Melb Metro bmark 5.6% -14.9% -12.6% -17.0% -21.6% -10.0% -5.5%

Avg. household income $110,276 $85,225 $96,415 $83,498 $70,094 $90,181 $86,478 $108,488 $101,610

Var. from Melb Metro bmark 1.6% -21.4% -11.1% -23.0% -35.4% -16.9% -20.3%

Avg. household size 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.6

Age distribution (% of population)

Aged 0-14 19.2% 17.9% 17.8% 18.3% 14.5% 17.8% 15.0% 18.3% 18.7%

Aged 15-19 6.3% 6.2% 7.0% 6.6% 4.6% 6.1% 4.4% 6.0% 6.1%

Aged 20-29 7.4% 12.9% 13.0% 12.5% 8.3% 10.5% 7.0% 15.5% 13.8%

Aged 30-39 9.4% 12.9% 11.0% 10.7% 8.7% 10.8% 8.6% 15.5% 14.0%

Aged 40-49 15.1% 13.8% 13.4% 12.7% 11.9% 13.7% 12.4% 13.9% 13.5%

Aged 50-59 12.9% 13.4% 15.4% 13.6% 13.0% 13.4% 13.9% 12.0% 12.7%

Aged 60+ 29.7% 22.8% 22.4% 25.6% 38.9% 27.7% 38.7% 18.8% 21.1%

Average age 42.8 39.6 39.6 40.3 47.8 42.0 47.3 37.6 38.6

Housing status (% of households)

Owner (total) 81.6% 68.7% 81.3% 71.9% 71.3% 74.1% 78.3% 68.5% 67.4%

• Owner (outright) 41.1% 29.7% 32.2% 35.4% 43.0% 36.2% 47.8% 31.4% 31.9%

• Owner (with mortgage) 40.4% 39.0% 49.1% 36.5% 28.3% 37.9% 30.5% 37.1% 35.5%

Renter 17.2% 29.8% 17.1% 27.5% 26.4% 24.5% 21.1% 30.9% 31.8%

Birthplace (% of population)

Australian born 77.3% 78.1% 84.4% 84.8% 82.0% 79.8% 84.6% 63.9% 71.9%

Overseas born 22.7% 21.9% 15.6% 15.2% 18.0% 20.2% 15.4% 36.1% 28.1%

• Asia 1.8% 3.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 2.4% 0.8% 17.3% 11.2%

• Europe 16.8% 13.3% 11.6% 11.1% 13.5% 14.0% 11.6% 11.0% 9.6%

• Other 4.1% 4.8% 2.8% 2.6% 3.2% 3.9% 3.0% 7.8% 7.4%

Family type (% of population)

Couple with dep't child. 47.8% 40.9% 43.6% 40.0% 31.5% 41.3% 34.2% 47.8% 44.8%

Couple with non-dep't child. 7.3% 8.5% 10.9% 8.1% 7.1% 8.0% 7.0% 8.3% 7.7%

Couple without child. 24.2% 21.4% 22.5% 24.8% 30.6% 24.3% 32.1% 20.7% 22.8%

One parent with dep't child. 6.8% 10.4% 9.1% 10.2% 8.8% 9.0% 7.6% 7.8% 8.8%

One parent w non-dep't child. 3.1% 5.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.6% 4.2% 3.5% 3.9% 3.7%

Lone person 10.3% 12.7% 9.0% 12.2% 16.6% 12.4% 15.2% 10.2% 11.0%

Car ownership

% 0 Cars 3.5% 6.6% 2.9% 4.7% 5.8% 5.1% 3.6% 9.0% 7.7%

% 1 Car 31.8% 36.3% 26.1% 34.6% 40.0% 34.8% 35.5% 35.9% 36.1%

% 2 Cars 44.6% 38.5% 40.7% 39.3% 39.3% 40.6% 43.4% 37.8% 37.5%

% 3 Cars 13.6% 11.9% 17.1% 13.3% 10.6% 12.7% 12.3% 11.4% 12.2%

% 4 plus Cars 6.5% 6.7% 13.2% 8.1% 4.3% 6.9% 5.3% 5.9% 6.5%

Source: ABS Census of Population & Housing, 2016; MacroPlan Dimasi

Table 2.2

Kaufland Mornington main trade area - socio-demographic profile, 2016

Secondary sectors



22



23

2.4 Retail expenditure

The estimated retail expenditure capacity of the main trade area population is sourced from

MarketInfo, which is developed by Market Data Systems (MDS) and utilises a detailed micro

simulation model of household expenditure behaviour for all residents of Australia. The

model takes into account information from a wide variety of sources including the regular

ABS Household Expenditure Surveys, national accounts data, Census data and other

information. The MarketInfo estimates for spending behaviour prepared independently

by MDS are used by a majority of retail/property consultants.

Chart 2.2 details the estimated retail spending levels of the main trade area population on a

per capita basis in 2017/18. Retail spending per person within the Kaufland Mornington main

trade area is estimated at $14,510, which is 1.2% above the average per capita retail

expenditure of metropolitan Melbourne of $14,336.

Retail spending per capita within the Kaufland Mornington primary sector is estimated at

$15,493, which is 8.1% above the respective benchmark. All spending figures presented in

this report are expressed constant at 2017/18 dollars and include GST.



24



25

Table 2.3 details the estimated retail spending capacity of the total trade area population

over the forecast period of 2018 – 2031. The total retail expenditure capacity of the main

trade area population is estimated at $3,471 million in 2018, including $987 million in the

primary sector. The retail expenditure capacity of the total trade area population is projected

to increase to $4,292 million by 2031, including $1,222 million in the primary sector.

Avg. ann. growthTrade area 2018 2021 2026 2031 ($M) (%)

Primary 987 1,038 1,127 1,222 18 1.7%

Secondary sectors

• North 1,080 1,134 1,228 1,326 19 1.6%

• East 253 266 287 308 4 1.5%

• Sth-east 344 365 401 435 7 1.8%

• South 485 512 558 608 9 1.7%

Total secondary 2,163 2,277 2,474 2,677 40 1.7%

Main trade area 3,150 3,315 3,601 3,900 58 1.7%

Tertiary south 321 337 365 394 6 1.6%

Total trade area 3,471 3,652 3,966 4,294 63 1.7%

*Constant 2017/18 dollars & including GSTSource: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi

Table 2.3

Kaufland Mornington trade area - retail expenditure ($M), 2018-2031*

Forecast retail spend ($M)



26

Table 2.4 presents the retail spending capacity of the total trade area population across key

retail categories, as well as the category definitions. FLG expenditure (food, liquor and

groceries), which is the main expenditure category for supermarkets, is estimated at

$1,555 million in 2018 and is forecast to increase to $1,947 million by 2031, reflecting

average annual growth of 1.7%. Table 2.5 provides the same information for the

main trade area.

Year ending FLG Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail TotalJune catering goods retail services retail

2018 1,555 412 342 630 156 273 103 3,471

2019 1,584 422 347 640 158 277 105 3,531

2020 1,612 432 351 649 160 280 107 3,591

2021 1,641 442 356 659 162 284 109 3,652

2022 1,670 452 360 669 164 288 110 3,713

2023 1,700 462 365 680 166 291 112 3,775

2024 1,729 472 369 690 168 295 114 3,838

2025 1,760 483 374 700 170 299 116 3,901

2026 1,790 494 379 711 172 302 118 3,966

2027 1,821 505 383 721 174 306 120 4,030

2028 1,852 516 388 731 176 310 122 4,095

2029 1,883 527 392 742 178 313 125 4,160

2030 1,915 539 397 752 180 317 127 4,227

2031 1,947 550 402 763 183 321 129 4,294

Average annual growth ($M)

2018-2031 30.2 10.6 4.6 10.3 2.1 3.7 2.0 63.4


2018-2031 1.7% 2.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7%


Table 2.4

Kaufland Mornington total trade area - retail expenditure by category ($M), 2018-2031*



27

Year ending FLG Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail TotalJune catering goods retail services retail

2018 1,411 375 312 570 141 248 93 3,150

2019 1,437 384 317 579 143 251 95 3,205

2020 1,463 392 321 588 145 255 97 3,260

2021 1,489 401 325 597 146 258 98 3,315

2022 1,516 411 329 606 148 261 100 3,371

2023 1,543 420 333 615 150 265 102 3,427

2024 1,570 429 337 624 152 268 104 3,485

2025 1,597 439 342 634 154 271 105 3,542

2026 1,625 449 346 643 156 275 107 3,601

2027 1,653 459 350 653 158 278 109 3,660

2028 1,681 469 354 662 160 281 111 3,719

2029 1,710 479 358 672 162 285 113 3,778

2030 1,739 490 363 681 163 288 115 3,839

2031 1,768 501 367 691 165 291 117 3,900

Average annual growth ($M)

2018-2031 27.5 9.7 4.2 9.3 1.9 3.3 1.8 57.7


2018-2031 1.7% 2.3% 1.2% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7%


Table 2.5

Kaufland Mornington main trade area - retail expenditure by category ($M), 2018-2031*

Retail expenditure category definitions:

FLG: take-home food and groceries, as well as packaged liquor.

Food catering: expenditure at cafes, take-away food outlets and restaurants.

Apparel: clothing, footwear, fashion accessories and jewellery.

Household goods: giftware, electrical, computers, furniture, homewares and hardware goods.

Leisure: sporting goods, music, DVDs, computer games, books, newspapers & magazines, stationery and

photography equipment.

General retail: pharmaceutical goods, cosmetics, toys, florists, mobile phones and pets.

Retail services: hair & beauty, optical goods, dry cleaning, key cutting and shoe repairs.


28

Section 3: Competition

This section of the report outlines the competitive retail context within which the Kaufland

will operate, including proposed developments of relevance.

Table 3.1 details the provision of retail facilities within the surrounding region, with the

previous Map 2.1 illustrating the locations of these activity centres.

Retail Dist. by road fromCentre GLA Major traders Kaufland Mornington

(sq.m) (km)

Primary sector

Mornington MAC 47,300 3.0

• Mornington Central 11,500 Target, Coles

• Mornington Village SC 7,600 Woolworths, Aldi

• Other 28,200

Peninsula Home 15,500 Aldi -

Mornington - Masters site 6,000 Coles (p) 3.4

Bentons Square 8,800 Woolworths 9.0

Mount Eliza Town Centre 12,400 4.4

• Eliza Square SC 3,400 Woolworths

• Ritchies Village SC 4,800 Ritchies IGA

• Other 4,200

Mount Martha Town Centre 3,300 Supa IGA 12.0

Secondary North sector

Frankston MAC

• Bayside SC 76,000 Myer, Kmart, Target, Woolworths, Coles, Aldi 10.3

• Other

Karingal MAC 13.9

• Karingal Hub 43,800 Big W, Woolworths X2

Karringal Village 3,500 Coles 14.9

Frankston Supa IGA Towerhill 3,300 Supa IGA 11.3

Frankston Supa IGA - Beach Street4,000 Supa IGA 12.2

Pearcedale Village SC 2,000 IGA 18.4

Source: Property Council of Australia; MacroPlan Dimasi

Table 3.1

Kaufland Mornington - schedule of major retail facilities



29

Retail Dist. by road fromCentre GLA Major traders Kaufland Mornington

(sq.m) (km)

Secondary East sector

Somerville Town Centre 25,000 12.2

• Somerville Central 13,300 Tagret, Coles

• Somerville Plaza 6,800 Woolworths

• Other 4,900 Ritchies IGA, Aldi

Baxter Local Centre 5,500 12.1

• Woolworths Baxter 4,200 Woolworths

• Other 1,300

Secondary South-East sector

Hastings MAC 25,000 22.8

• Hastings Central 7,200 Kmart, Aldi

• Coastal Village SC 3,000 Ritchies IGA

• Other 14,800 Woolworths, Coles

Balnarring Small Township 3,500 Ritchies IGA 23.7

Secondary South sector

Aldi Dromana 1,600 Aldi

Dromana Town Centre 10,000 23.0

• Dromana Hub SC 5,000 Ritchies Supa IGA

• Other 5,000

Rosebud MAC 44,000 31.6

• Rosebud Plaza SC 25,500 Kmart, Target, Woolworths, Coles, Aldi

• Rosebud Central 4,000 Woolworths

• Other 14,500

McCrae Local Centre 3,200 Coles 27.5

Tertiary South sector

Rye Town Centre 11,000 Woolworths 36.5

Sorrento Town Centre 11,000 Rithcies IGA 45.8


Table 3.1 (cont.)

Kaufland Mornington - schedule of major retail facilities



30

Primary sector

The Mornington Major Activity Centre is located on Main Street and is the largest Activity

Centre in the Shire, and plays a regional role, acting as a hub for retail, commercial and civic

activity. The Activity Centre contains two enclosed shopping centres. The sub-regional

Mornington Central is anchored by Target and Coles, and has a focus on apparel retailing

with a number of national fashion retailers (Just Jeans, Millers, Jeans West, Dotti, Rockmans,

Strandbags). Mornington Village SC is a neighbourhood centre anchored by Woolworths and

Aldi supermarkets and contains more convenience-based retail tenancies. Mornington

Village SC is slated for a small expansion of 2,700 sq.m, which is planned to be completed

in 2021.

The Activity Centre also contains a sizable strip retail component including a large provision

of food catering outlets including numerous cafes and quality restaurants; a wide selection

of women’s apparel stores, gift shops and homewares outlets; a number of services including

banks, real estate agents and convenience-oriented retail. Due to the scale and mix of the

Mornington Major Activity Centre, it serves a wide-ranging catchment across the Peninsula.

Located adjacent to the subject site is the Peninsula Home large-format retail centre. The

centre contains a number of prominent national furniture (Provincial Home Living, Early

Settlers, Fantastic Furniture), bedding (Snooze, Forty Winks, BedShed, Sheridan), homewares

(Harris Scarfe), fabric (Lincraft), sporting goods (Rebel) and appliances (Harvey Norman,

Good Guys, Godfreys) retailers. Other major large format operators trading at the centre

include Officeworks, PetStock and Repco. An Aldi opened at the centre in April 2016, and is

joined by a BWS and a discount chemist. A freestanding Bunnings Warehouse is situated

immediately south of Peninsula Home.

Located 4.1 km north-east of the subject site, the Mount Eliza Town Centre is anchored by a

Woolworths supermarket of 2,700 sq.m (having recently undergone a small expansion, while

refurbishment works continue) and a Ritchies IGA of around 1,500 sq.m. The predominantly

street-based retail plays an important function in serving the residents in the local area, with

the supermarket anchors supported by range of fresh food shops, cafés, take-away food



31

stores, restaurants and independent womenswear retailers. A number of commercial and

non-retail uses are located on Mount Eliza Way and Ranelagh Drive.

Situated 9 km south-west of the subject site, Bentons Square SC is the main retail

component of the Bentons Large Township Centre and is anchored by a large full-line

Woolworths supermarket of around 4,200 sq.m. The centre also encompasses a Dan

Murphy’s large format liquor outlet, a number of take-away food operators, and

convenience-oriented non-food specialties (newsagency, discount pharmacy optometrist,

hairdressers, beauty salons, dry-cleaners and clothing alterations). The key function of the

centre is to serve the weekly food, grocery and convenience oriented retail needs of

residents in the surrounding area.

The Mount Martha Town Centre is located further to the south and is situated on the coast.

The centre is anchored by an IGA supermarket and contains a range of specialty shops

including a number of restaurants, fresh food shops, several cafes and other convenience

retail outlets.

In terms of future competitive development, a 3,700 sq.m Coles supermarket is to be

developed at the former Masters Mornington building, approximately 3.4 km south of the

subject site. The centre is also planned to include other uses such as a Liquorland outlet, a

Goodlife Health Club and a Super Cheap Auto outlet.

Secondary north sector

Bayside SC in Frankston is the southernmost regional centre in Melbourne’s south-east and

benefits from a large catchment encompassing most of the Mornington Peninsula. The

centre is anchored by a Myer department store, Target and Kmart discount department

stores, and Coles, Safeway and Aldi supermarkets. Bayside SC includes a wide range of retail

specialty store floorspace particularly in the general retail and household goods categories.

There is a relative underprovision of apparel specialty floorspace, however, is largely offset

by the number of large apparel mini-majors at Bayside SC (TK Maxx, Best & Less, Ozmosis

and Country Road).



32

Karingal Hub is a sub-regional centre located 3.8 km south-east of Bayside SC, anchored by a

Big W discount department store and two Woolworths supermarkets. The centre comprises

28,600 sq.m of retail floorspace and contains a five screen Village Cinema. In the past, there

were approved plans to expand Karingal Hub to include an Aldi supermarket, though it is

unknown if the development will proceed as planned.

Karingal Village is a small supermarket based centre located at the intersection of Karingal

Drive and Ashleigh Avenue. The centre is 3,500 sq.m in size and is anchored by a Coles

supermarket.

Secondary east sector

The Somerville Town Centre is anchored by four supermarkets, with Coles co-locating with

Target at Somerville Central and Woolworths situated adjacent at Somerville Plaza, on the

western side of the Stony Point railway line and Frankston-Flinders Road. A Ritchies IGA and

Aldi supermarkets are located on the eastern side of the Stony Point railway line and

Frankston-Flinders Road, with the physical divide resulting in poor integration of the Activity

Centre.

Also located in the secondary east sector is the Baxter Local Centre, with the Woolworths

anchored Baxter Shopping Centre forming the main retail component, which is supported by

six specialty tenants. There is small provision of strip retail adjoining the shopping centre on

Baxter-Tooradin Road.

Secondary south- east sector

The main function of the Hastings Major Activity Centre is to serve the residents in the

eastern parts of the Mornington Peninsula Shire. The Kmart and Aldi anchored Hastings

Central is situated in the southern parts of the Activity Centre, with a freestanding

Woolworths supermarket situated adjacent, with both facilities accessed by Victoria Street.

A full-line Coles is situated in the northern parts of the Activity Centre and can be accessed

by Victoria Street and King Street. Strip retailing is predominantly provided on High Street,

including an Ritchies IGA situated at the eastern boundary of the Activity Centre, while also

encompassing an ad hoc provision of mainly dated take-away food, general retail and service

tenants.



33

Secondary south sector

The primary function of the Rosebud Major Activity Centre is to serve the weekly grocery

and high-order needs of residents in the southern parts of the Peninsula. The Activity Centre

extends approximately 2 km along Point Nepean Road/Nepean Highway, opposite the

Rosebud foreshore.

Rosebud Plaza SC is the key retail component of the Activity Centre and is anchored by dual

discount department stores, Kmart and Target, as well as full line Woolworths and Coles

supermarkets. A freestanding Aldi supermarket is situated some 200 metres east of

Rosebud Plaza fronting Point Nepean Road. Rosebud Central, located approximately 1.5 km

to the east, is anchored by a full-line Woolworths supermarket, while the Activity Centre

previously also accommodated a Ritchies Supa IGA of 2,400 sq.m, with a Dimmeys outlet

locating to the tenancy after the closure of the supermarket. The Activity Centre provides an

extensive range of retail specialties, which serve two key customer segments, residents in

the surrounding area, as well as visitors to the area.

Other key retail facilities in the secondary south sector include McCrae Plaza, which is

anchored by a small Coles supermarket of 1,800 sq.m (formerly Bi-Lo) and is located 3.2 km

east of Rosebud Plaza. Dromana Hub SC, the main retail component of the Dromana large

Township, and is anchored by a Ritchies Supa IGA supermarket of 2,650 sq.m.


34

Section 4: Assessment of supermarket need

This section provides a needs assessment for a Kaufland supermarket at the subject site.

4.1 Supermarket need in walkable catchment

Within a walkable catchment i.e. around 400 metres, there are an estimated 400 residents

surrounding the subject site. Given the limited population and the presence of an adjoining

Aldi supermarket, there is not considered a need for a supermarket in the localised

catchment. Furthermore, the Nepean Highway acts as a significant natural barrier, and it is

considered unlikely that any residents in the area would walk to the proposed store,

particularly those residing on the western side of the highway.

4.2 Supermarket need in trade area

To assess the potential need for additional supermarket floorspace in the trade area, this

sub-section provides an analysis of the quantum of supermarket floorspace in the area. Table

A1 in the Appendix presents the supermarket floorspace per 1,000 residents within the

primary sector and main trade area defined for Kaufland Mornington, and compares this

metric to the metropolitan Melbourne benchmark.

The main points to note regarding this analysis are outlined as follows:

Nationally, the supermarket floorspace provision is estimated at around 340 sq.m -

350 sq.m per 1,000 residents. In mainland state capital cities, though, average provision

decreases to around 306 sq.m per 1,000 residents. In Australia’s two largest population

centres (Sydney and Melbourne), which account for around 35-40% of Australia’s total

population, the rate of provision is below average, at 250 sq.m per 1,000 residents for

Sydney and 312 sq.m per 1,000 residents for Melbourne.

Within the primary sector, there is currently 292 sq.m of supermarket floorspace per

1,000 residents, which is slightly below the metropolitan Melbourne benchmark of

312 sq.m. However, the provision of supermarket floorspace in the primary sector is



35

projected to increase to 342 sq.m per 1,000 residents at 2021, once a Coles supermarket

is developed at the former Masters site in Mornington in the short term.

If a 5,500 sq.m Kaufland hypermarket were also to be developed in the short term,

supermarket floorspace per 1,000 residents in the primary sector would rise to a very

high 429 sq.m per at 2021.

Supermarket floorspace per 1,000 residents is estimated to be well above the

metropolitan Melbourne average throughout the forecast period, peaking at 397 sq.m

per 1,000 residents in 2021, assuming a Kaufland hypermarket is not developed at the

subject site. This indicates that the main trade area population is already adequately

served in terms of supermarket floorspace.

If a Kaufland hypermarket were to be developed in the short term, this is projected to

increase the overprovision of supermarket floorspace in the main trade area. The

addition of a 5,500 sq.m Kaufland is forecast to heighten supermarket floorspace to

423 sq.m in 2021 per 1,000 residents.

The supermarket floorspace provision within the Kaufland Mornington main trade area is

expected to be above average, given that the peninsula accommodates a large non-

permanent resident and tourist population, particularly during the peak holiday season.

According to the Mornington Peninsula Activity Centres Strategy, non-permanent residents

and tourists contributed $250 million or 14% of total retail sales on the Mornington

Peninsula to the local economy. However, the addition of a Kaufland supermarket as well as

the Coles Mornington supermarket will push the supermarket provision to be well above

average, which may have implications for the existing supermarkets in the area.

This analysis indicates that the existing provision of supermarkets in the Kaufland

Mornington main trade area is already serving the needs of the local community and visitors

to the area. Even after taking into account future population growth, there is no clear

indication that the local area requires another large supermarket, particularly as a new Coles

supermarket is to be developed at the former Master site in Mornington.



36

4.3 Additional supermarket need to address population growth

Table 4.1 presents the locations of the proposed Kaufland stores in metroplitan Melbourne,

and details the poppulation growth within the LGA of the respective stores. Epping and

Coolaroo form part of the northern growth corridor of Melbourne, with significant greenfield

population growth planned for those areas, with average annual growth rates of 2.9% and

2.8% respectively to 2031. Therefore, the proposed Kaufland stores at these locations will

serve radiply growing areas of Melbourne.

The outer metropolitan location of Dandenong (1.5%) is forecast to record solid population

growth, while the more established areas of Monash and the Yarra Ranges, like Mornington,

are projected to record modest growth of over the period to 2031. Based on this analysis,

the planned Kaufland stores at Epping, Coolaroo and Dandenong would be well placed to

serve the growing needs of the respective catchments, while the proposed stores at

Mornington, Oakleigh and Chirnside Park would serve catchments that are not projected to

accommodate substantial amount of population growth over the forecast period.

Overall, the rate of population growth projected to occur in the Mornington catchment does

not clearly warrant the development of an additional large supermarket in the short term.

The development of the approved new Coles supermarket and the expansion of existing

supermarkets is considered adequate to serve the needs of future residents moving into the

area in the medium term.

Avg. annualProposed store LGA 2016 2021 2026 2031 growth (%)

Mornington Mornington Peninsula 160,862 168,134 172,036 176,230 0.6%

Epping Whittlesea 207,881 246,904 285,275 320,622 2.9%

Oakleigh South Monash 192,850 199,343 204,737 209,923 0.6%

Coolaroo Hume City 207,830 248,915 284,307 316,694 2.8%

Chirnside Park Yarra Ranges 155,300 161,325 167,469 174,087 0.8%

Dandenong Greater Dandenong 155,773 169,656 181,260 193,592 1.5%

Source: ABS Census 2016; Victoria In Future 2016; forecast .id; MacroPlan Dimasi

Population

Table 4.1

Kaufland Mornington trade area population, 2011-2031*



37

4.4 Activity centre hierarchy and out-of-centre considerations

The subject site, together with the adjoining Peninsula Hub Homemaker centre, is

Industrial 3 Zone and sits outside of the Activity Centres hierarchy as detailed in the

Mornington Peninsula Activity Centre Strategy. The Peninsula Hub contains mostly large

format retail stores, together with an Aldi supermarket of around 1,500 sq.m. Small scale

supermarkets of up to 1,800 sq.m are permitted in the Industrial 3 Zone, which is a size of

supermarket which cannot offer a full range of products and supermarkets of this scale are

mostly used for top-up shopping.

Currently Peninsula Hub and the adjoining Bunnings store serve a destinational role,

accommodating retailers which require large footprints and are mostly visited by the

surrounding population on an occasional basis. The opening of a large full range

supermarket, which would serve the weekly shopping needs of residents, would have a

substantial change to the composition and offer of the out-of-centre development.

The Strategy details that out-of-centre developments are important but are primarily to

include homemaker retail, showrooms, trade supplies, light industry, and other businesses

and community facilities. A full scale supermarket is not a use considered appropriate for an

out-of-centre development according to the Strategy. Objective 7 of the Strategy dictates

Council ‘closely monitor out-of-centre development….to ensure that commercial development

occurring away from activity centres identified in the hierarchy contributes to the

achievement of a net community benefit and does not undermine activity centre policy’.

The Mornington Peninsula Planning Scheme (Clause 21.07-3) outlines the direction to

discourage traditional retail uses in out-of-centre developments. In particular, the Scheme

state that ‘Out-of-centre retail, service station and office developments detract from compact

urban patterns. This is detrimental to the established hierarchy of centres and should be

avoided.’ The Scheme outlines the important function of the hierarchy of Activity Centres on

the Mornington Peninsula, and that each centre has unique character and serves the

particular needs of the local community. It further states that a development which may

impact on the role served by Activity Centres on the Mornington Peninsula should be

avoided.



38

The development of a large supermarket, which will offer a large range of food and grocery

goods, at an out-of-centre development will significantly alter the retail offer at the locality.

The combination of a Kaufland supermarket together with Peninsula Hub will provide a

substantial amount of both food and non-food facilities. This will in effect create a new

Activity Centre outside of the existing Activity Centre hierarchy, which has the potential to

impact on roles served by other Activity Centres in the area.

In summary, the development of the Kaufland Mornington store could affect the current

Activity Centres hierarchy, therefore, it could be concluded that the development may

undermine the Activity Centre policy. The development of a Kaufland supermarket at the

subject site does not support the existing Activity Centre hierarchy detailed in the

Mornington Peninsula Activity Centres Strategy and certainly does not “re-affirm the primacy

of Mornington Peninsula’s Major Activity Centre in the activity centres hierarchy”.

Alternate sites

Another consideration is the availability of alternate sites which could accommodate a

Kaufland supermarket. Our investigation revealed that there appears to be no suitable sites

on Commercial Zone land which could accommodate a Kaufland supermarket. In the local

area the only vacant sites sufficiently large enough to accommodate such a development are

located within the Industrial 3 Zone area on Mornington Tyabb Road. The former Master site

would have been a possible alternate site, though the site is to be redeveloped to

accommodate a Coles supermarket and other retail uses. There may be alternative sites

located near the Peninsula Link Freeway, though the land surrounding the freeway is not

zoned for commercial uses.


39

Section 5: Sales outlook and impacts

This section of the report provides estimates of sales potential for the proposed Kaufland

store supermarket, as well as a review of the potential impacts the development may have

on existing centres in the area, as well as an overview of possible community benefits.

5.1 Estimated sales potential

Prior to being able to consider the question of potential economic impacts that

may arise from the development of the Kaufland Mornington supermarket, the necessary

first step is to seek to quantify the level of sales that the hypermarket can expect to achieve.

The performance of Kaufland hypermarkets in Australia are an unknown quantity, with no

historical precedence for reference. That being said, the performance of other supermarket

operators in the Australian market can provide a point of guidance in reasonably estimating

the likely order of sales the store could be expected to achieve.

An important additional factor which needs to be taken into account in assessing the

sales potential of new Kaufland stores is the size of the store, which in most cases will be

roughly twice the size of a typical Woolworths or Coles supermarket, and approximately

four times the size of a typical Aldi store.

The offer of Kaufland, its status as a destinational retailer and the wide-ranging catchment it

is likely to serve are also major factors in estimating the sales of the proposed store. In

addition to a full-line supermarket offer, Kaufland will also carry a range of non-food

discount department store type items, including household goods, electrical items, basic

apparel, as well as general household items. There are two important implications of this –

the first, is the destinational nature of the Kaufland store, which due to the scale and mix of

the offer is likely to serve a wide ranging catchment. The Kaufland Mornington is likely to

serve a catchment encompassing the entirety of the Mornington Peninsula Shire and parts of

the City of Frankston to varying degrees. The total trade area population is estimated at a

substantial over 239,000 in 2018, and is projected to reach 263,000 at 2031. The second



40

implication, is that non-food items generally generate a much lower sales productivity level

compared to supermarkets. Whereas, supermarket operated by the major players

Woolworths, Coles and Aldi on average achieve sales productivity levels in excess of $10,000

per sq.m, discount department store retail generally achieves sales productivity levels within

the $3,000 - 4,000 per sq.m range.

Finally, locational factors are also taken into account, including the location of the subject

site on Nepean Highway, a major highway which offers strong regional connectivity,

exposing the proposed store to 29,000 average daily vehicular movements; and the network

of competing retail facilities in the surrounding region.

Having regard to all of these factors, the estimated sales performance for the Kaufland

Mornington store is expected to fall within the range of $42 - $46 million in its first year of

trade. The overwhelming majority of store sales are expected to be attributed to food, liquor

and grocery items, estimated at around 80 - 85%, while the residual 15 - 20% accounts for

non-food items.

With a large store footprint, average sales volumes per store are expected to generally

be greater, than the levels achieved by existing Australian supermarkets, while sales

productivity levels are forecast to be lower.

The sales performance of Kaufland can reasonably be expected to grow over time. As

consumers increasingly recognize the Kaufland brand and better understand the value

proposition that it provides, the sales of the Kaufland stores can experience a gradual uptick

over the medium term. It is noted that Aldi stores and Costco warehouse both traded below

current levels when they first entered the Australian market. Aldi generally traded at

productivity levels noticeably lower than either Woolworths or Coles supermarkets at the

time of entry, despite the fact that the Aldi store footprint is much smaller. Both operators

took a number of years to embed themselves into the public psyche and the supermarket

sector at large.



41

5.2 Estimated impacts

A number of factors need to be taken into account in the consideration of the likely broad

trading impacts of the proposed Kaufland Mornington supermarket on other retail facilities.

Such projections must be considered as indicative only, for the simple reason that it is very

difficult to predict with certainty the precise impact on any one retailer or any one centre

that will result from a change to the retail structure serving a particular area or region.

This impact analysis considers the likely broad changes in competitive circumstances, and in

particular the changes in availability of retail expenditure for competitive centres that can

reasonably be expected to result from the development of the Kaufland Mornington. These

broad changes effectively set the market conditions within which all competitive

centres will operate as a result of the addition of the proposed Kaufland Mornington

supermarket, and reasonable conclusions can then be drawn about the possible impacts and

subsequent consequences of these broad changes in market conditions.

The projected sales for the Kaufland Mornington in FY21 would result in a redirection of

spending to the supermarket from a range of other centres located both within the primary

sector and throughout the wider main trade area. In order to estimate the likely order of

these impacts, we have had particular regard to the location and composition (existing and

proposed) of each centre relative to the proposed Kaufland Mornington supermarket and

their respective roles in the region.

The following factors will all be of relevance in terms of how the likely impacts will play out:

The distance of the (impacted) centre, by road, from the proposed development.

The size of the centre, in terms of total relevant retail floorspace. More specifically in this

instance, the amount of supermarket floorspace available is the most important factor to

consider.

The brand of the anchor tenant(s) with the relevant supermarket anchors again being the

key factor.



42

The respective role and function of each centre. For example, a centre might be oriented

towards convenience retailing, higher order retailing/homewares, or it might primarily

service a worker/transit market.

The relative accessibility and convenience of the impacted centre compared with the

proposed retail development.

The estimated performance of the centre (in current sales) and projected future

performance. This accounts for any future developments in the region that might also

impact on the future sales of existing centres.

When assessing the dollar (and percentage) impacts that are likely to be absorbed by existing

facilities/centres, the greatest impacts are typically absorbed by the closest comparable

stores/centres in terms of offer. For example, a new Coles supermarket is generally likely to

impact the closest nearby Coles supermarket to the greatest extent, followed by impacts on

other comparable supermarkets (e.g. Woolworths). In this instance, a Kaufland store is likely

to impact supermarket competitors the most, particular full range Coles and Woolworth

supermarkets as well as Aldi supermarkets which offer a discount model.

Appendix Table A2 presents a summary of the projected sales estimates for competitive

centres surrounding the Kaufland Mornington development, as well as our assessment of the

likely order of impacts. All figures are expressed in constant 2017/18 dollars and include GST,

and show the following:

The estimated FY18 sales potential for each of the existing activity centres. The FY18

estimates have been derived based on physical inspection of each centre, and also

drawing on publicly available information. An appropriate sales productivity level is then

applied to each supermarket.

The projected sales potential for activity centre/retail anchor at FY21, which is assumed

to be the first full trading year for the proposed Kaufland Mornington. The sales potential

for each activity centre/retail anchor at FY21 is shown under two scenarios – the first

assuming no development of the Kaufland Mornington (i.e. a ‘status quo’ scenario) and

the second assuming that the Kaufland Mornington is developed. The impact of the Coles



43

Mornington development has been factored into the estimated FY21 sales of surrounding

supermarkets.

The no development scenario allows for the sales potential for each existing centre to

increase in line with the underlying growth in retail expenditure capacity of the

surrounding area. The estimates of centre sales potential after impact (i.e. assuming

development of the Kaufland Mornington) is then calculated by allocating the anticipated

impacts on each activity centre/retail anchor from Kaufland Mornington.

The estimated impacts on each centre at FY21, in dollar terms and in percentage terms

respectively, resulting from the proposed development of the Kaufland Mornington.

The following observations and conclusions can be drawn from this impact analysis:

Existing full range supermarkets in the primary sector are projected to experience modest

impacts of up to approximately 5 - 6% following the development of Kaufland

Mornington, with impacts expected to be larger on the Aldi supermarkets which are

considered to be a closer competitor to Kaufland.

Kaufland Mornington is expected to divert some business from the Mount Eliza Town

Centre, predominantly due to its proximity, with impacts expected to be around 3% for

the supermarkets.

The potential impacts on specific anchors in the secondary sectors are expected to be

relatively minor, estimated up to 2%.

The overall impact of Kaufland Mornington on the identified retailers/retail precincts

within the main trade area is estimated to be relative modest at 2.5% of FY21 sales.

This analysis assumes that 20% of sales are generated from the beyond the main trade

area, including the tertiary south sector. This reflects the destinational attraction of the

Kaufland offer, the regional accessibility of the Kaufland site and the strong non-

permanent and tourist population who visit the Mornington Peninsula.



44

As population growth in the Kaufland Mornington trade area is modest (projected at 0.7%

per annum over the forecast period), the development of the Kaufland supermarket will

limit the growth potential of existing activity centres in the area.

Overall, while the forecast sales of Kaufland Mornington is substantial, estimated at between

$42 - 46 million in FY21, the potential impacts on the surrounding network of activity centre

are considered modest, as the impacts will be spread across a broad range of facilities. This

analysis indicates that no existing operator will be impacted to an extent which will imperil

their operations. Similarly, the trading impacts are unlikely to have a substantial effect on

the overall performance of the network surrounding Activity Centres, and all centres will be

able to continue to serve their role in serving the needs of the local community.

5.3 Potential community benefits

The development of Kaufland Mornington has the potential to result in a range of

community benefits, summarised as follows:

Improving shopping choice and convenience for the surrounding population. Kaufland

Mornington will bring an experienced operator to the Mornington Peninsula, expanding

the range of previously unavailable products and brands to the surrounding population

providing greater choice and convenience for the consumer;

Potential downward pressure on prices. The entry of another operator in the

supermarket sector is likely to have a deflationary effect on grocery and food prices as a

result of stronger competition. The recent Coles campaigns and the disruption of the

discount Aldi model have highlighted the sway of price competition, and the entry of

Kaufland is likely to heighten this theme.

The development of Kaufland Mornington will add to the provision of retail floorspace in

the area, and would result in a reduction of retail expenditure escaping from the

Peninsula.



45

Kaufland Mornington will create a number of new jobs during the construction and

related industries during the construction phase, and for the local economy once

completed.

5.4 Other considerations

The subject site is currently zoned Industrial 3, and if Kaufland Mornington were to be

developed, this will likely require a rezoning of the site. The consequence of this is that it will

detract from the provision of industrial employment land within the Shire.

In addition, in line with the Mornington Peninsula Activity Centre Strategy which details a

need for a close monitoring of out-of-centre development, diligent care must be applied

when considering an appropriate zone for the subject site to ensure Council maintains

contain over any potential future development at the site. Rezoning the entire subject site

(including the adjacent land occupied by the Bata Shoe Company) to Commercial 1 for

example, could open the site up to a range of future commercial developments, such as

additional retail, which may result in a material impact on surrounding activity centres and

the primacy of the Mornington MAC, if redeveloped in the future.


46

Section 6: Conclusion

The Kaufland Mornington trade area is currently adequately served by the existing provision

of supermarket floorspace. Within the Kaufland Mornington primary sector, there is

currently 292 sq.m of supermarket floorpsace per 1,000 residents, which is slightly below the

metropolitan Melbourne benchmark of 312 sq.m. However, the provision of supermarket

floorspace is expected to be above average following the development of Coles Mornington

at the former Masters site. Even after taking into account future population growth, there is

no clear indication that the local area requires another large supermarket in the short term.

While the estimated sales potential of Kaufland Mornington is substantial, the trading

impacts on surrounding activity centres and retail facilities will be spread across the

peninsula, as a result of the broad and wide-ranging destinational draw of the retailer.

Consequently, modest decreases in trading levels of surrounding activity centres are

expected as a result of the opening of Kaufland Mornington.

There are a number of economic benefits which may arise from the development of

Kaufland Mornington for both the consumer and the local economy. For the consumer, the

entry of an experienced supermarket operator will create greater choice and convenience, as

well as potentially creating downward pressure on food and grocery prices as a result of

greater competition. For the local economy, the development of Kaufland Mornington is

likely to result in the creation of additional employment. However, the net community

benefit would be limited by the presence of the Aldi discount supermarket at Peninsula

Home, adjacent to the subject site, which already provides a supermarket in the locality.

Overall, the development of Kaufland Mornington is not expected to have a significant

impact on any one retailer or Activity Centre, is not expected to impact on the primary of the

Mornington Activity Centre and will likely result in a number of community benefits.

However, the arguments to support a new large supermarket on Industrial 3 Zone land in

out-of-centre development are potentially outweighed by the potential impact the

development may have on the Activity Centre hierarchy of the area, and on balance it is not

clear that a net community benefit would result from the proposed development.

Appendix tables

Appendix tables


48

2018 2021 2026 2031Smkt Smkt Smkt Smkt

Flsp (sq.m) Flsp (sq.m) Flsp (sq.m) Flsp (sq.m)

Population within primary sector 63,960 65,460 67,960 70,460

Mornington Central - Coles 3,280 3,280 3,280 3,280

Mornington Village SC - Woolworths 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900

Mornington Village SC - Aldi 1,350 1,350 1,350 1,350

Peninsula Home - Aldi 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Bentons Square - Woolworths 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250

Eliza Square -Woolworths 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700

Ritchies Village SC 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Mount Martha Supa IGA 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

Mornington - Coles 0 3,700 3,700 3,700

Primary sector smkt floorspace 18,680 22,380 22,380 22,380

Floorspace per 1,000 residents w/o Kaufland 292 342 329 318

Variation from benchmark -20 30 17 6

Floorspace per 1,000 residents with Kaufland 429 413 398

Variation from benchmark 117 101 86

Population within MTA 218,020 223,270 231,770 239,770

Secondary North

Bayside SC - Woolworths 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750

Bayside SC - Coles 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200

Bayside SC - Aldi 1,630 1,630 1,630 1,630

Karingal Hub - Woolworths 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000

Karingal Hub - Woolworths 2 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750

Karringal Village 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Frankston - Supa IGA Beach Street 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Frankston - Supa IGA Towerhill 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Secondary East

Somerville Central - Coles 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700

Somerville Plaza - Woolworths 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800

Somerville - Aldi 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700

Somerville - Richies IGA 800 800 800 800

Baxter - Woolworths 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200


Hastings Central - Aldi 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550

Coastal Village - Ritchies IGA 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

Hastings - Coles 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800

Hastings - Woolworths 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400


Rosebud Plaza - Woolworths 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700

Rosebud Plaza - Coles 3,650 3,650 3,650 3,650

Rosebud Plaza - Aldi 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

Rosebud Central 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000

McCrae - Coles 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

Dromana - Aldi 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

Dromana - Supa IGA 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650

Total secondary sectors smkt floorspace 66,280 66,280 66,280 66,280

Total main trade area 84,960 88,660 88,660 88,660

Floorspace per 1,000 residents w/o Kaufland 390 397 383 370

Variation from benchmark 78 85 71 58

Floorspace per 1,000 residents with Kaufland 423 407 394

Variation from benchmark 111 95 82


Metropolitan Melbourne benchmark for supermarket floorspace per 1,000 residents - 312 sq.m

Appendix Table A1

Kaufland Mornington - Supermarket floorspace (sq.m) per 1,000 residents, 2018-2031*

Appendix tables


49

Size Est. sales forCentre/anchor (sq.m) FY18 ($M) w/o Kaufland w Kaufland $M %

Primary sector

Mornington MAC 1

• Mornington Central - Coles 3,280 60.0 58.1 55.1 3.0 5.2%

• Mornington Central - Target 5,500 20.0 22.2 21.0 1.2 5.2%

• Mornington Village SC - Woolworths 2,900 30.0 26.6 25.3 1.3 4.9%

• Mornington Village SC - Aldi 1,350 18.0 17.4 15.6 1.8 10.3%

• Fresh food retail specialties 1,650 8.3 8.7 8.5 0.2 2.1%

• Non-food specialties 17,400 87.0 91.5 89.4 2.1 2.3%

Total Mornington MAC 1 32,080 223.3 224.5 214.9 9.5 4.2%

Peninsula Home - Aldi 1,500 18.0 17.9 15.4 2.5 13.9%

Bentons Square

• Bentons Square - Woolworths 4,250 60.0 58.1 54.8 3.3 5.7%

• Fresh food retail specialties 1,800 9.0 9.5 9.2 0.3 2.6%


Mount Eliza Town Centre

• Eliza Square -Woolworths 2,700 30.0 31.6 30.6 1.0 3.2%

• Ritchies Village SC 1,500 15.0 15.8 15.3 0.5 3.2%

• Fresh food retail specialties 950 4.8 5.0 4.9 0.1 1.6%


Mount Martha Town

• Mount Martha Supa IGA 1,200 20.0 21.0 20.4 0.6 2.9%

• Fresh food retail specialties 350 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.0 1.1%

• Non-food specialties 700 3.5 3.7 3.6 0.0 1.1%

Mornington - Coles 3,700 0 35.0 33.2 1.8 5.1%

Total Primary 56,980 416.5 456.7 436.5 20.2 4.4%

*Constant 2017/18 dollars & including GST

1. Excludes food-catering and retail services specialties which are likely to not be impacted by Kaufland MorningtonSource: MacroPlan Dimasi

Appendix Table 2

Kaufland Mornington - Est. impacts on surrounding retailers ($M)

Project. sales FY21 Impact at FY21

Appendix tables


50

Size Est. sales for

Centre/anchor (sq.m) FY18 ($M) w/o Kaufland w Kaufland $M %

Secondary North

Bayside SC - Woolworths 3,750 30.0 31.6 31.1 0.5 1.6%

Bayside SC - Coles 4,200 40.0 42.1 41.4 0.7 1.7%

Bayside SC - Aldi 1,630 18.0 18.9 18.5 0.4 2.1%

Bayside SC - Target 8,200 22.5 24.9 24.7 0.2 0.8%

Bayside SC - Kmart 6,120 25.0 27.7 27.5 0.2 0.7%

Karingal Hub - Woolworths 4,000 35.0 36.8 36.3 0.5 1.4%

Karingal Hub - Woolworths 2 3,750 40.0 42.1 41.5 0.6 1.4%

Karingal Hub - Big W 7,900 25.0 27.7 27.5 0.2 0.7%

Karringal Village - Coles 3,000 30.0 31.6 31.1 0.5 1.6%

Frankston - Supa IGA Beach Street 1,000 15.0 15.8 15.6 0.2 1.3%

Frankston - Supa IGA Towerhill 1,000 10.0 10.5 10.3 0.2 1.9%

Secondary East

Somerville Central - Coles 3,700 40.0 42.1 41.7 0.4 1.0%

Somerville Central - Target 5,200 18.0 20.0 19.8 0.2 0.8%

Somerville Plaza - Woolworths 3,800 40.0 42.1 41.7 0.4 1.0%

Somerville - Aldi 1,700 18.0 18.9 18.4 0.5 2.6%

Somerville - Richies IGA 800 6.0 6.3 6.3 0.1 0.8%

Baxter - Woolworths 4,200 40.0 42.1 41.1 1.0 2.4%


Hastings Central - Aldi 1,550 18.0 18.9 18.4 0.5 2.6%

Hastings Central - Kmart 4,400 20.0 22.2 22.0 0.2 0.9%

Coastal Village - Ritchies IGA 2,000 15.0 15.8 15.6 0.2 1.3%

Hastings - Coles 3,800 40.0 42.1 41.4 0.7 1.7%

Hastings - Woolworths 3,400 40.0 42.1 41.4 0.7 1.7%


Rosebud Plaza - Woolworths 3,700 30.0 31.6 30.9 0.7 2.2%

Rosebud Plaza - Coles 3,650 30.0 31.6 30.9 0.7 2.2%

Rosebud Plaza - Aldi 1,600 18.0 18.9 18.3 0.6 3.2%

Rosebud Plaza - Target 3,600 15.0 16.6 16.4 0.2 1.2%

Rosebud Plaza - Kmart 10,100 40.0 44.3 43.8 0.5 1.1%

Rosebud Central - Woolworths 4,000 40.0 42.1 41.2 0.9 2.1%

McCrae - Coles 1,800 20.0 21.0 20.6 0.4 1.9%

Dromana - Aldi 1,600 18.0 18.9 18.4 0.5 2.6%

Dromana - Supa IGA 3,250 40.0 42.1 41.7 0.4 1.0%

Total secondary sectors (anchors) 112,400 836.5 889.3 875.4 13.9 1.6%

Other food stores within MTA 0.4

Other non-food stores within MTA 1.5

Total main trade area 169,380 1,253 1,346 1,312 36.0 2.5%

Impact on centres beyond MTA 9.0

Total 45.0

*Constant 2017/18 dollars & including GSTSource: MacroPlan Dimasi

Appendix Table 2 (cont.)

Kaufland Mornington - Est. impacts on surrounding retailers, ($M)

Project. sales FY21 Impact at FY21

Appendix maps

Map A1: Chirnside ParkSite location

Map A2: Chirnside ParkPlanning context

Map A3: CoolarooSite location

Map A4: CoolarooPlanning context

Map A5: DandenongSite location

Map A6: DandenongPlanning context

Map A7: EppingSite location

Map A8: EppingPlanning context

Map A9: OakleighSite location

Map A10: OakleighPlanning context

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