8/4/2019 KASHMIR`S FUTURE

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>at east akea irst step ike hisone."Most demographershink the one-

childpolicyhas mposed uge osts n hecountry.Thezorocensus howed hatpop-

ulation growth was even slowerthan ex-pected,isingjust .57%yearover hepast

decade. he policy has caused onflictswith ordinarypeopleand beena targetofintense foreign criticism,worries PengPeng f cASS who nevertheless orriesabout elaxing t too fast). hecostswere

highlightedrecently by revelations of along-running candaln Hunanprovince,where officials reaccused f brutalisingparentswho violate he policy by confis-cating illegal" abies ndputting hemupfor sale n theadoptionmarket.

Few expect significantreforms soon.The amily-planningbureaucracys a vastand entrenchednterestgroupdefendingthe statusquo at all levelsof government.Seniorofficials ear hat any changewouldunleasha populationboom, despite re-dictions to the contraryby most experts.With only a year to go until China's irstleadershiphangen a decade,ohigh-lev-el igure n the centralgovernments ikelyto back significant changesnow. "If the

government as political easonsor notbeingable o changehepolicy,hen hereis nothing I can do," saysZhgngZizhen."lcanonly say hat rom a scientific ointofview it sclear hepolicyneedso change."Guangdongthinkso, oo.

street.Mr Abdullah. whose hair is fastturninggrey, ays our entireexercises nnotgiving hese eople riggero start heprotests gain."

Thewider backgroundmay help.Kash-mir'sseparatists ere quick o condemnatriple bombing nMumbai onJulyr3ththatkilledzo. n Kashmirtself herearestilloc-casionalclashes: nJulyr5tha handful offighters,allegedly rom Lashkar-e-Thiba,terrorist roupbasedn Pakistan,ied n a

shoot-out.But the army saysmilitancy isdown to a "subcritical" evel.And thoughsullen{ooking rmedmen n uniform areeverywhere,dozens of military road-blocks hat chokedSrinagarastyearhavebeencleared. omesoldiersmight returnto barracks, asinghe ocals' ense f be-ingunder he ndianarmyboot.

Militants and pro-Pakistanis like arealsosubdued ecausehey ear hat Paki-stan s succumbingo dire economic ndsecurity roblems. he alk s of "betrayal"by the governmentn Islamabad.Whenthe oreignministers f IndiaandPakistanhold rarebilateral all<sn Delhi on July27th, hey will not discuss ashmir's ta-tus. Nor arePakistan's eleagueredrmyandspiesikely o restorehe backing orfighters n Kashmir which they reducedafter hezoo8Mumbai errorist ttacks.

As a result,ndiahasspaceo do some-thing on its own. Previousulls werecuesfor it to neglect Kashmiri grievances,speeding p the eturn oprotest. ossiblythingsmightbe differenthis ime.Modestefforts o build trust areunder way,suchasallowingbarter radeof farm goodswiththe Pakistani-runbit of Kashmir. Thatcouldbe followedby lettingmorepeoplecross he border o visit relatives. raverstepswould earna responserommoder-

ate Kashmiris,whose most bitter com-plaintsconcern estrictions n daily life,rather hanbeingpartof India.

Onestepwould be o hold ndia's ecu-rity serviceso accountor lastyear's ill-ings.If Kashmiris hought he army and n-dia's politicianswere concernedabouttheir plight, hey might be less esentful.Mr Abdullah sayshe expects rosecutions

to follow current nquiries. The lifting ofharsh emergencyaws-both at the statelevel and under a centrally imposedarmed orces ct-is ongoverdue.

Timingmatters. he ndianauthoritiesmove slowly, more worried about seem-

ing soft on separatismo Indian votersthanaboutwinning he rustof Kashmiris.Yetdelays aise he chances f renewedprotestand play into the hands of hard-liners. n April the moderate eaderof afundamentalistWahhabi organisation, l-Hadith,wasblown up ashe arrivedat amosquen Srinagar.uspicion ointsat ex-tremistswithin the group,whose follow-ing is growing.Thankfully,neither bloodyprotestsnor revengeattacks ollowed.Nexttimecouldbe different.

Kashmir'suture

Fleetingchance

ililliJt,", -"od brings nopportunity.xpectndiaosquandertTTHESEareunexpectedly appy days nI conflicttorn Kashmir.Tourists lockfrom India's sweaty plains to gasp hemountain air. Srinagar's otels, house-boatsand caf6s recrammed.etskisoarover he once-t{anquil al ake.Hordes fHindu pilgrims rek,unmolested,o a sa-credpenis-shapedump of ice at Amar-nath,a caveemple. ndonroadsidesndi-an migrant abourers,mostlyBiharis, ineup o work n fieldsandon building-sites.

Amid thebustle here s glee.A fathertells of his young children playing in

streetshat astyear lew with stones ndbullets.A man n Bandipur, town northof Srinagar, reviously protestedagainstIndian occupiers ut now worries moreaboutcash: tourismwasgoneastyear, onow we need o make omemoney."

Suchpragmatism s welcome.Kash-mir's chief minister,Omar Abdullah,sit-ting on a erracen his Srinagar ome,saysthatalmost 0% f voters urnedout or re-cenlpanchayatvillage) lections,houghhe concedeshat he votedoesnot signifyacceptancef Indian ule.Protestsver hepast hreeyearsed n 2o1oo fivemonthsof curfews,boycottsof shops,officesand

schools-known as hartals-and stone-throwing by youngsters. rutal and ill-trained ecuritymen responded y shoot-ingdeadmore hanuo Kashmiris.

Peoplewould doubtless o it again,fcalledout.But many are ed up with stay-ing homeor getting hotat or no gain.Par-ents ret hat their childrenare lunking ex-ams; radersworry about lost earnings.Some fear that traumatised oungstersmaybecome xtremists,wapping tonesforbombsor guns.

Theauthoritieshavealsogrowncanni-er .More han ooo youngmen aresaid ohavebeen ockedaway as a precaution.Many separatists re behind bars or, ikethe mostnotable eader,he octogenarianSyed li ShahGeelani, nderhouse rrest.Thepolicehavebeen aught,at ong ast, ouse non{ethal force againstunarmedcrowds. And officials,not stick-wieldingsecurity hugs,are now supposed o re-spondwhen humdrumgrievances-aro-kenwaterpipe,say-bringpeopleon to the

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0h took,a ive-starmilitarycheckpoint