Karkheh Basin Focal Project: Synthesis of approach findings andSynthesis of approach, findings and

lessons

Cali BFP ConferenceSeptember 17-20, 2007September 17 20, 2007

Work Package 2W A il biliWater Availability

WP 2-Approach

1. Synthesis studies2 Ti i l i l d h d l i l d ll i f2. Time series meteorological and hydrological data collection from

secondary sources/relevant ministries3. Identification of information/data gaps and filling4 Quick understanding of hydrology and water balance a simple4. Quick understanding of hydrology and water balance, a simple

spreadsheet water account applied with help of Mac Kirby5. Detailed hydrological analysis

– Assessment of the spatial variability in land use classification, i it ti d t l t i ti i fprecipitation and actual evaportranspiration using surface energy

balance model – Time series analysis of stream flow mainly using Flow Duration

Curves (FDC) approachD t il d b t h t l l t b l l i i HBV d– Detailed sub-catchment level water balance analysis using HBV and SWAT models

Spatial distribution of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (2002-3)actual evapotranspiration (2002 3)

Rainfall distribution in the Basin (2002 3)

Actual evapotranspiration in the (2002-3) Basin (2002-3)

Percentage distribution of ETa from different land use classesdifferent land use classes

(year 2002-03, summary of SEBS results)

Irrigated crops11%

Range Lands27%

Water7%

Other land classes

27%

Rain fed crops29%

Bare Lands/urban

areas3%

Bare Lands/Urban

areas27%

27%

Orchards2%Forest

21%

Grass land7%

3%

Irrigated cropsIrrigated crops39%

(a) Upper Karkheh (b) Lower Karkheh

WP 2 Findings

• Scarcity and Competing Demands Meeting the competing water demands is emerging as the key challenge in Karkheh mainly because ofdemands is emerging as the key challenge in Karkheh mainly because of increasing allocations for irrigation

• Groundwater Overdraft Rapidly increasing reliance on groundwater use for agriculture, especially in upper Karkheh. Groundwater withdrawals have already exceeded the safe limits in Gamasiab and Gharsu sub-basins andalready exceeded the safe limits in Gamasiab and Gharsu sub basins and pose a threat to agricultural sustainability.

• High Variability in ET Remote sensing analysis showed high inter- and intra-subcatchment level variability in evaportranspiration which is mainly attributed to fragmented and diverse land uses in Karkheh-possible g popportunities

• Flow Variability and Planning FDC analysis reveals that planning on the basis of mean annual surface water availability could only provide a supply security in the range of 35-50%. There is a need to incorporate the natural

i bilit f f t il bilit i t d l t dvariability of surface water availability in water resources development and allocation strategies, particularly for low flow years when meeting the competing water demands becomes more difficult.

Hawr Al Azim Swamp Devolution

7,600 Km2 of primaryof primary wetlands areas disappeared

Year 1973-76 Year 2000

Work Package 3:Work Package 3:Water Productivity

WP 3 - Approach

1. Synthesis study

2a. Secondary data collection (district)Crop production, Livestock production, Forest production, Prices

2b. Remote sensing based analysisLand use classification, Yield estimation for major crops, RS determined Et (surface energy balance), RS interpolated yield

3. Farm SurveySample survey, all sub-basins in KarkhehSmall medium large farmers; rainfedSmall, medium, large farmers; rainfed, irrigated and mixed farms.

data on factors of production

A paper based on Water Productivity is submitted for BPF Special Session, 13 IWRA World Water Congress at Montpellier, France –September 2008.

0.40

0.34

0.30

0.35

m3)

0.25

duct

ivity

(US$

/m

0.19

0.130.15

0.20

atio

n w

ater

pro

d

0.11

0.050 040 05

0.10

Irrig

a

0.040.03

0.00

0.05

Morocco (Triffa) Turkey (Seyhan) Niger (Saga) Egypt (Nile Delta) Pakistan(Chishtian)

India (MahiKadana)

Iran (Karkhehbasin)(Chishtian) Kadana) basin)

Country (Irrigation system)

WP 3 Findings

1 Lik l b t ti l f t d ti it1. Likely substantial room for water productivity through changed practices further substantiated by the high variation in farm scale productivity estimates even within the same sub catchments Though ofeven within the same sub-catchments. Though of course cross-country comparisons must be used with caution.

2 Likely substantial room for water productivity2. Likely substantial room for water productivity increase through reallocation, though our models not sufficient for analysis

3 Importance of Livestock (fish others?)3. Importance of Livestock (fish, others?)

Work Package 1PPoverty

WP 1-Approach

1. Synthesis study

2. Use Household Income and Expenditure Surveysfor Iran covering the last 2 decades and calculate gurban and rural poverty lines for Iran

• We were lucky it existed

3. Re-categorize data to perform analysis on the Karkheh and its sub-basins

WP 1 Findings

1. Poverty in Iran and the Karkheh has dropped over y ppthe last 20 years, particularly in rural areas.

2. The Karkheh basin is less poor than is Iran as a whole.whole.

3. Rural areas of the Karkheh are less poor than urban, when adjusted for differing costs of living

4 F i th t h lf f th l i4. Farmers are in the top half of the rural incomebracket in the Karkheh.

5. The poorest rural area of the Karkheh is the lower reach-based on 6 sub-basin breakdown

0.35

0.40

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.00

Unemplo

yed

Manag

er

Clerk

Tradep

erson

Farmer

uctio

n work

ersk

illed w

orker KB

Countr

y

U Tr

Produc

Unsk

Work Package 4I i i l A l iInstitutional Analysis

WP 4- Approach

1. Examine the history of the basin-in terms of water use ll th li i t i hi h th tas well as the policy environment in which that use

changed.2. Gain an understanding of the formal institutions

di tl i l d i th t t ithi thdirectly involved in the water sector within the Karkheh.

3. Look at those institutions within Iran in general and the Karkheh in particular which are directly related tothe Karkheh in particular which are directly related to the alleviation of poverty.

4. Look at some of the broader policy issues within Iran which are likely to influence both water use andwhich are likely to influence both water use and poverty within the Karkheh.

WP 4 Findings

1. Basin has gone through a series of phases1. Basin has gone through a series of phases since 1900, the most recent of which has put substantial emphasis on wheat production, not water productivity. Questions of sustainability

2. “Standard” set of partially overlapping water management institutions

3. Large set of poverty alleviation institutions

4) Broader issues

• Fall of Shah, conflict with US/West and Iran-Iraq war qmade food self-sufficiency a national priority

• Ongoing wars on two borders and nuclear conflict with west given continued reason for policywest given continued reason for policy

• Result is use of water for low productivity grains that could be importedP i i d b id t th t b fit tl th• Pricing and subsidy system that benefits mostly the urban sector and encourages waste-Iran now one of largest agricultural importers

• Implicit subsidy on fuel equal to 12% of GDP-targeted redistribution of about ½ would eliminate poverty

Work Package 5Water Poverty andWater, Poverty and

Productivity Linkages(Analysis of Interventions)(Analysis of Interventions)

PODIUMSim: 2025 Horizon

(Food & Water Demand and Supply)

Three scenarios are developed:

1- Business as Usual ScenarioFocus on wheatFocus on wheat

2- Sustainable Management ScenarioFocus on the environment

3- “Best Case” ScenarioFocus on tradeoffs and social optimums

Productivity/Poverty in allProductivity/Poverty in all

WP 5 Findings

• No question that increase in water use hasNo question that increase in water use has allowed expansion of area and increase in yieldsy

• But now no direct connection between production and rural povertyp p y

• Probably greater connection between production and urban poverty and/or p p ynational food security goals-which may be in opposition to WP maximization

Trends in poverty and agriculturalTrends in poverty and agricultural production, Karkheh

1 800 0 7

1,400

1,600

1,800

0.6

0.7

1,000

1,200

,

Ha 0.4

0.5

600

800000

0.2

0.3

Harvested Area

0

200

400

0

0.1

Harvested AreaPoverty Incidence

01983 1993 2004

0

Karkheh Recommendations

• the use of non-agricultural water measures is likely t b ff ti l ti t i i lto be a more effective solution to remaining rural poverty in the Karkheh basin and Iran.

• In the short to medium term, agricultural water policy h ld f i t i h i l t

1. For both rainfed and irrigated areas, better and increased use of inputs. 2. For irrigated areas, better targeted irrigation applications.

should focus on improvements in physical water productivity so as to improve the use scarce water resources for given national food security priorities. Promising options include:

g g g3. For rainfed areas, exploring means of additional water application wherever possible, though considering possible trade-offs with downstream areas. 4 While opportunities of improving productivity exist in both thePromising options include:

• In the longer term, shift towards economic water productivity by moving water away from lower productivity grain production and towards higher

4. While opportunities of improving productivity exist in both the upper and lower Karkheh, the upper basin appears to be most promising for productivity improvement potential.

productivity grain production and towards higher value agricultural and other activities including hydropower generation and urban uses.

High Priority Research

1. What makes basin results comparable or not?Agro ecosystm similarity?– Agro-ecosystm similarity?

– Economic similarity?– Political similarity?The answer may change for given basins over time.

2 What are the national and global water impacts of food self-sufficiency2. What are the national and global water impacts of food self-sufficiency policies, such as those caused by food embargo threats?

– especially applicable to the arid and generally water scarce states of the Middle East/North Africa.

– Not unreasonable to hypothesize that water productivity gains from policy change in this arena could be as large or larger than those possible through technical interventionarena could be as large or larger than those possible through technical intervention.

3. Is there a general framework to determine when and where (both within and across countries/basins) water is a cost effective poverty alleviation tool?

4 How to better consider surface/groundwater interaction and implement4. How to better consider surface/groundwater interaction and implement effective groundwater policy?

5. How best to capture livestock, fisheries, forestry and possibly other agricultural systems? How to easily move from average to marginal water productivity calculations for use in decision making?productivity calculations for use in decision making?

Key suggestions for new BFPsKey suggestions for new BFPs• Do quick assessments/reports on key issues

T k hi i i d d h hi h• Take an historic perspective to understand how things got to the current state

• Take a broad view of policy and its effects on agriculture and water use

• Make sure any water productivity estimates are inclusive, e.g. livestock-maintain difference between average and marginal

• Think simultaneously about water as a means for overall economic growth reducer of poverty in general and reducer of poverty in thegrowth, reducer of poverty in general, and reducer of poverty in the agricultural sector and the tradeoffs between the three

• Put another way, don’t force the water poverty issue but think about water as a means for additional poverty alleviation

• MAKE THE PROJECT A TEAM EFFORT WITH EACH PACKAGE LEADER IS INVOLVED IN EVERY WORK PACKAGE

Actor (or group of Change in Practice Change in Knowledge What are the project's What are the keyActor (or group of actors who are expected to change in the same way)

Change in Practice required to achieve the project's vision?

Change in Knowledge, Attitudes, Skills and Aspirations (KASA) required to achieve the project's vision?

What are the project s strategies (including development of outputs) to bring about these changes in KASA

What are the key assumptions?

way) changes in KASA and Practice?

CPWF It will provide base information and highlight emerging issues related to

Methodologies used/ developed for each work packages will be useful to conduct

Frequent interaction with CPWF BFP central and other BFB teams to share

The methodologies and process useful for Karkheh and similar river basins

agricultural poverty, productivity and sustainability in the basin context. This will help CPWF (and donor agencies) to make strategic decision for

similar studies in other CPWF river basins

methodologies, experience and results

strategic decision for further funding.

Ministry of Jehad-e-Agriculture; Ministry of Energy;

The results will help transformation towards basin scale perspective on issues

f l d d t

The improved understanding of basin function in term of water availability, use,

d ti it d

Joint studies with Iranian organizations/institutes were conducted. Trainings of NARS f PODIUMSi

Capacity building will contribute to longer term object of the project. The

lt f thMinistry of Rural planning; Universities (University of Tabrez)

of land and water, agriculture, poverty and their inter-linkages

productivity and livelihood will help enhance interaction between different ministries. Thereby, formulating coherent policies for improving

for PODIUMSim analysis were conducted. Results were disseminated through workshop, IWMI/CPWF reports, peer reviewed

results of the projects will be uptake by relevant institutes.

policies for improving land and water productivity and reducing water related poverty.

peer reviewed journal papers and PhD thesis

Outputs Who will use the outputs? Why? What is in it for them?

Change in Knowledge, Attitudes, Skills, Aspirations and Practice resulting from use

Indicator(s) of change

1) Karkheh BFP Project reports

CPWF, IWMI, AREO, MOE and other Iranian partners

To plan future research agenda and make better water management decisions in the light of the answers to the

Improved understanding of basin scale issues related to water productivity, poverty and tradeoffs

Research & development investments leading towards addressing key challenges in river basin management

answers to the key BFP questions out spanning from the BFP research

2) IWMI research t / ki

CPWF, Policy makers, t

improving knowledge d

Improved understanding d t

Reference of this research in li d t tireports/working

paperswater managers, scientists/researchers, students, farmers

and understanding based on the scientific information and policy directions

and management of basin scale issues related to water productivity, poverty and water management.

policy documentations, discussions, research papers

3) Conference papers/presentations/ Discussions

Participants Sharing and learning from each others experiences

Extracting relevant lessons/messages for their local context

No. of workshops/conference organized

4) Journal papers Researchers/scientists, policy makers,

New knowledge, methodologies

Improved understanding and management

Reference of this research in policy documentations, p y ,

water managers, scientists, students, farmers and other stakeholders

gand scientific facts

gof basin scale issues related to water productivity, poverty and water management.

p y ,discussions, research papers

5) PhD thesis Researchers/scientists, New knowledge, Improved understanding Reference of this research in5) PhD thesis Researchers/scientists, policy makers, water managers, scientists, students, farmers and other stakeholders

New knowledge, methodologies and scientific facts

Improved understanding and management of basin scale issues related to water productivity, poverty and water management.

Reference of this research in policy documentations, discussions, research papers

Thanks