K. T. Hill and P. R. Crone NOAA Fisheries Southwest Fisheries Science Center
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Transcript of K. T. Hill and P. R. Crone NOAA Fisheries Southwest Fisheries Science Center
Population analysis of coastal pelagic species off the USA Pacific coast using age-structured statistical
catch-at-age/length models
K. T. Hill and P. R. Crone NOAA Fisheries
Southwest Fisheries Science Center8604 La Jolla Shores DriveLa Jolla, CA 92037, USA
Stock assessments for CPS in 2011
Presentation outline•Overview of stock assessment model development
o From field to lab to analysis to management advice
•Pertinent differences between current Pacific sardine and Pacific mackerel modelso Data (time series) included in the modelo Parameterization (stock parameter) considerations
•P. mackerel and P. sardine stock assessments (overviews)
•Management procedureso Pacific sardine as example
•Future considerationso Model development for P. sardine and P. mackerel o International-based collaborative sampling/laboratory/modeling efforts for CPS
Stock assessments for CPS in 2011
Overview of stock assessment model development•Historical review of available data and modeling approaches over time
•Fishery-dependent sample data largely collected by state (and international) agencies
•Research survey data collected primarily by federal-based programs
•Laboratory work conducted by state and federal research efforts
•Formal population analysis conducted/coordinated by federal research programs
•Management processes are addressed annually through regional Council activities
Stock assessments for CPS in 2011
Pertinent differences between current sardine and mackerel models•Data (time series)
o Age/length distribution time series … length- vs. age-basedo Index of abundance time series … research survey- vs. fishery-based
•Parameterization (stock parameter)o Use of age and length data for evaluating selectivity, growth, etc.o Spawning stock—recruitment relationship
Distribution
Spawning Area
Fisheries
San Pedro
BahiaMagdalena
Ensenada
OR-WA
Monterey
San Diego
Pacific Mackerel Stock Assessment (2011)
Pacific Mackerel Stock Assessment (2011)
Data• Landings — USA from PacFIN/RecFIN and available at a fine scale
o International landings availability … much improved over time
• Biology — from state/federal sampling/laboratory programs and available at a fine scale, but …oLength … recreational fishery length information prior to 1992 (and you could even
argue 2004) caveatsoAge … no recreational fishery age informationoWeight … see Length aboveoMaturity … ‘long in the tooth’ caveats
• Indices of abundance — from state sampling programs and available at a fine scale, but …oCPFV logbook sampling program … future ‘applicability’ of this data source needs
further reviewoCRFS program … long-term funding concerns
Landings
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10
Landings (mt)
Fishing year
CA Commercial
Mexico Commercial
CA Recreational (CPFV)
CA Recreational (non-CPFV)
Figure ES-1. Commercial and recreational landings (mt) of Pacific mackerel in the USA (CA commercial, recreational-CPFV, and recreational-non-CPFV) and Mexico (commercial), (1929-10).
Age Distribution Time Series (1983-10)Commercial Fishery – Model XA fits
Length Distribution Time Series (1985-10, 2004-10)Recreational Fishery – Model XA fits/diagnostics
Indices of Abundance
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Estimate (normalized)
Year
CPFV
CRFS
Figure 6 A&B. Indices of abundance: (A) CPFV (CPFV logbook sampling program) and CRFS (non-CPFV fisheries); and (B) the CRFS survey time series evaluated at the fishing mode level (CPFV Logbook=abbreviated CPFV in 6A, CRFS_1 = man-made, CRFS_2=beach/bank, CRFS_3=charter/party, CRFS_4=private/rental, CRFS_124=omits charter/party, and CRFS_1234=all modes). Note that only the CPFV and CRFS_124 indices were used in Model XA. Also, missing lines between data points reflects years with no sampling.
Biological Parameters – Model XA
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8+
Proportion
Age (years)
Maturity
Natural mortality
Figure 7A-C. Biological parameters associated with the Pacific mackerel population associated withmaturity schedule and natural mortality.
Stock-Recruitment Relationship – Model XA
Selectivity – Model XA
Commercial fishery Recreational fishery
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
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0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Proportion
Age (years)
1985-10 CPFV2004-10 CRFS
Figure 12. Estimated time-varying selectivity distributions associated with model XA: (A) commercial fishery (1983-10); and (B) recreational fishery (1985-10 CPFV) and (2004-10 CRFS).
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Proportion
Age (years)
1983-10 Commercial
Figure 12. Estimated time-varying selectivity distributions associated with model XA: (A) commercial fishery (1983-10); and (B) recreational fishery (1985-10 CPFV) and (2004-10 CRFS).
Estimated Biomass Time Series – Model XA
0
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
B (mt)
Fishing year
Figure 17. Estimated total stock biomass (age 1+ fish in mt, B) of Pacific mackerel based on the final Model XA (1983-11).
Estimated Recruitment Time Series – Model XA
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10
R (1,000s of fish)
Fishing yearFigure ES4. Estimated recruitment (age-0 fish in 1,000s, R) of Pacific mackerel based on model XA, (1983-10). A confidence interval (95% CI) is also presented as dashed lines.
Harvest Guideline
Commercial landings (mt) and quotas
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
HG Landings
Figure 22 A-B. Harvest guideline statistics for Pacific mackerel: (A) commercial landings (USA directed fishery in mt) and quotas (HGs in mt), (1992-11); and (B) total landings (mt) and hypothetical quotas based on no USA ‘Distribution’ parameter in the harvest control rule. Incidental landings from Pacific Northwest fisheries are not included, but typically are limited, ranging 100 to 300 mt per year.
Landings (mt)
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Fishing year
Estimated Biomass Time SeriesHistorical Assessment Period (2004-11)
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10
Fishing year
VPA (2004)
ASAP (2005)
ASAP (2006)
ASAP (2007)
ASAP (2008)
SS AA (2009)
SS XA (2011)
Figure 21. Estimated total stock biomass (B age 1+ fish in mt) of Pacific mackerel for the historical assessment period (1994-11): VPA model-based assessments from 1994-04; ASAP model-based (2005-08); and SS model-based (2009-11).
B (mt)
“First and foremost, the population’s reproductive potential has been only lightly impacted from fishing pressure over the last decade, i.e., the estimated SPR time series, blah, blah, blah …”
Pacific mackerel – California Current Ecosystem
Brown bears – Cabinet Yaak Ecosystem
Pacific bluefin tuna – North Pacific Ocean Ecosystem
California condors – So. CA Coastal Mountain Range Ecosystem
Spawning Potential Ratio Time Series – Model XA
Real conservative benchmark say …
Reeeally conservative benchmarks say …
Ongoing Modeling Issues
• Scaling the population from a fully-depleted condition (early 1980s)
• Sensitivity to new data (e.g., SS model 2008)
• Implausibly high F-rates (SS models 2009-2010): aerial survey biomass treated as absolute
• Recent models had many selectivity parameters and time-varying elements resulting in model instability (i.e., over-parameterized)
Changes from Previous AssessmentsNEW MODEL STRUCTURE
Goal: more parsimonious model; robust to data/scaling; plausible F estimates
•Regional fisheries aggregated to MexCal and PacNW ‘fleets’
•Truncated time series (1993 start year)
•Fewer time-varying elements (selectivity and growth)
•Number of estimated parameters reduced from 132 to 61
NEW DATA SOURCES
•Ensenada fishery composition (1989-2009)
•SWFSC Acoustic survey time series (2006-2011)
Pacific Sardine Recovery and Fishery Expansion
San Pedro (SCA)
Ensenada (ENS)
Washington (WA)
Oregon (OR)
Monterey (CCA)
British Columbia
(BC)2000s
90s
80s
Fishery Compositions: Length, Age, & Selectivity
Age (yr)Length (cm)
Survey Indices of Biomass Selectivity
Estimated Stock Biomass Series from Base Model
988,385 mt
Estimated Stock Biomass and Recruitment Series from Current Base Model and Previous Stock Synthesis Models
Exploitation Rate
U.S. Sardine Management for 2012: OFL, ABC, and HGHarvest Formula Parameters Value
BIOMASS (ages 1+, mt) 988,385
Pstar (probability of overfishing) 0.45 0.40 0.30 0.20
BUFFERPstar (Sigma=0.36) 0.95577 0.91283 0.82797 0.73861
FMSY (stochastic, SST-independent) 0.18
FRACTION 0.15
CUTOFF (mt) 150,000
DISTRIBUTION (U.S.) 0.87
Amendment 13 Harvest Formulas MT
OFL = BIOMASS * FMSY * DISTRIBUTION 154,781
ABC0.45 = BIOMASS * BUFFER0.45 * FMSY * DISTRIBUTION 147,935
ABC0.40 = BIOMASS * BUFFER0.40 * FMSY * DISTRIBUTION 141,289
ABC0.30 = BIOMASS * BUFFER0.30 * FMSY * DISTRIBUTION 128,153
ABC0.20 = BIOMASS * BUFFER0.20 * FMSY * DISTRIBUTION 114,323
HG = (BIOMASS - CUTOFF) * FRACTION * DISTRIBUTION 109,409
Stock assessments for CPS in 2011Future considerations•Model development
o Using age- vs. length-based selectivity (sardine)o Down-weight fishery composition data per Francis (2011)o Time-varying selectivity/catchability considerationso Survey-based indices of abundance (mackerel)
•International-based collaborative effortso Synoptic CPS surveyso Adult sample collection & methods (ageing and reproductive biology)o Stock structure studieso Stock assessment workshops
AcknowledgmentsCDFO: Jake Schweigert, Linnea Flostrand, Jackie Detering
NWFSC: Richard Methot, Ian Taylor, Ian Stewart, Bob Emmett
WDFW: Carol Henry, Sandra Rosenfield, Jennifer Topping
ODFW: Jill Smith, Keith Matteson, Sheryl Manley, Kelly Corbet, David Wolfe Wagman
Northwest Sardine Survey, LLC: Jerry Thon, Tom Jagielo, Ryan Howe, Meghan Mikesell
CDFG: Kirk Lynn, Dianna Porzio, Mandy Lewis, Bill Miller, Paul Ton, Santi Luangpraseut, Briana Brady, Ed Dunn, Sonia Torres, Lou Zeidberg
SWFSC: Dave Griffith, Amy Hays, Dimitry Abramenkoff, Sue Manion, Bill Watson, Elaine Acuña, Andrew Thompson, Sherri Charter, Sarah Zao, Noelle Bowlin, David Demer, Juan Zwolinski, Randy Cutter, Kyle Byers, Josiah Renfree, Steve Sessions, John Field, Vardis Tsontos
IATTC: Mark Maunder and Alex Aires-da-Silva
INAPESCA: Manuel Nevarrez (Guaymas) and Ensenada field staff
CICIMAR: Roberto Felix-Uraga and Casimiro Quiñonez
STAR Panels: Andre Punt, Ray Conser, Larry Jacobson, Chris Francis, Mike Okoniewski, Lorna Wargo, Jonathan Deroba, John Casey, Briana Brady