Justice Sector Strategy 2011 Justice Sector Forecast Historical perspectives and forecast trends...

Justice Sector Strategy

2011 Justice Sector ForecastHistorical perspectives and forecast trends

Justice Horizons Seminar27 October 2011

ContentsLong-term crime trends

Demographic trends

Crime resolution trends

Court volume trends

Forecast sentence trends

Murder rate: Newspaper headlines

2008

“Violent crime rises 11%”“Violent crime, including murder, jumped dramatically in the year to June...”Otago Daily Times, 1 October 2008

2009

“NZ's murder rate halved in past 20 years”“...despite an overwhelming public belief that crime has got worse.”New Zealand Herald, 7 April 2009

2010

“Murder rate up 20 per cent”“...increase of 38.6 per cent in recorded homicide and related offences.”Dominion Post, 1 October 2010

2011

“Murder rate at 25-year low”“Homicide and related offending dropped 23.8 per cent”Stuff, 3 October 2011

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New Zealand murder rate

Murder rate: Long-term per capita rate

1985

Each of the newspaper headlines is accurateDownward trend from mid-1980s, though quite volatile

Source: Roger Falloon, data compiled from multiple sources

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19851950

Each of the newspaper headlines is accurateDownward trend from mid-1980s, though quite volatileUpward trend from low point in the 1950s, then large step up in 1985

Change in recording practice in 1978, following introduction of the Wanganui Computer


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19851950

Each of the newspaper headlines is accurateDownward trend from mid-1980s, though quite volatileUpward trend from low point in the 1950s, then large step up in 1985Volatile and slightly downward/flat prior to 1950

Change in recording practice in 1978, following introduction of the Wanganui Computer


Murder rate: Very long-term per capita rate

Source: Manuel Eisner, “Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime”, 2003

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13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th

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Murder rate in Europe

Taking a longer view provides some perspectiveRecent rates are substantially lower than in previous centuries

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2011 headline:

“Murder rate falls 97% in 500 years”


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Crime rate, number of Police, and prison muster

Police force Prison muster Crime rate

Tough on crime: A long-term perspective

Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports, and Department of Corrections.

From 1994 “Crime rate” represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ.

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Traffic Officers merge with Police in 1992

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Tough on crime: A long-term perspectiveRecorded crime rate leapt from the 1950s to peak in 1992; declining since thenSince the 1950s the per capita number of sworn Police has more than doubledImprisonment rate has more than doubled since the 1980sThese trends reflect “tough on crime” policies, common to many countries


Left vertical axis

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Crime is falling in many countriesCrime is falling across most Western countries:

United States: crime has been falling since 1991Australia: on-going decline since peak in 2001Scotland: recorded crime at its lowest level for over 30 years, having peaked in 2004/05Canada: reported crime volume declining over the past decade; Crime Severity Index declined 22% from 1999 to 2009England and Wales: offences are declining, having peaked in 2007/08Netherlands: recently started hiring out their prisons to Belgium, citing a reduction in crime as one of the reasons they had space

Crime is falling in many countriesCrime is falling across most Western countries:

United States: crime has been falling since 1991Australia: on-going decline since peak in 2001Scotland: recorded crime at its lowest level for over 30 years, having peaked in 2004/05Canada: reported crime volume declining over the past decade; Crime Severity Index declined 22% from 1999 to 2009England and Wales: offences are declining, having peaked in 2007/08Netherlands: recently started hiring out their prisons to Belgium, citing a reduction in crime as one of the reasons they had space

Though there are exceptions, for example:

Sweden: increasing crimeFinland: flat volumes for 2000 to 2009

Crime is falling in many countries – why?Many theories about why crime is falling (in the US, though similar in NZ):

The Obama effect – election of a black president had an inspirational effectFall in demand for crack – leading to a fall in associated violent crimeSmarter policing – targeting high risk factorsNumber crunching – analysis of crime patternsLegal abortion – fewer children for young, poor, single mothersMore criminals behind bars – so less opportunity to offendReduced exposure to lead in petrol – reducing behavioural problemsDemographics – the Baby Boomers grew upVideo games – keeping young people off the streets [+ social media?]Proliferation of camera phones – increasing the risk of being caught

Much debate about these (and other) theories, but no consensus.

Source: “US crime figures: Why the drop?”, Tom Geoghegan, 21 June 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13799616

.


Demographic trends


Court volume trends


18-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Percentage of adult population

Ag

e g

rou

p

65 plus17%

Demographic structure: Age comparison

Year: 2010

18 to 2414%

25 to 6469%

65 plus1%

18 to 2444%

25 to 6456%

Convicted All NZ

1980 2010 2060

0

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

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18-24 year oldsTotal population

Demographic structure: The “Echo Boomers”

Historical

Echo Boomers (born ~1982-95), children of the Baby Boomers (born 1946-61)Most reach age 18-24 in the years 2000-2013

Echo Boomers start reaching

age 18

Demographic structure: The “Echo Boomers”Echo Boomers (born ~1982-95), children of the Baby Boomers (born 1946-61)Most reach age 18-24 in the years 2000-2013

Total population of 18-24 year olds expected to peak in 2013 then decline until 2023

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Po

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Year


Historical Forecast


age 18

Decline from 2013 to 2023

Demographic structure: The “Echo Boomers”Echo Boomers (born ~1982-95), children of the Baby Boomers (born 1946-61)Most reach age 18-24 in the years 2000-2013:

Total population of 18-24 year olds expected to peak in 2013 then decline until 2023After a plateau from 2000 to 2010, proportional share of population resumes decline

0

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

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18-24 year oldsShare of total NZ adult population

Historical Forecast Historical Forecast


age 18


Resume decline as proportion of total adult population

Plateau from 2000 to 2010

Demographic structure: The “Echo Boomers”Echo Boomers (born ~1982-95), children of the Baby Boomers (born 1946-61)Most reach age 18-24 in the years 2000-2013

Total population of 18-24 year olds expected to peak in 2013 then decline until 2023After a plateau from 2000 to 2010, proportional share of population resumes decline

All else being equal, expect flat/declining crime due to demographic changes

0

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

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18-24 year oldsShare of total NZ adult population

Historical Forecast Historical Forecast


age 18


Resume decline as proportion of total adult population

Plateau from 2000 to 2010


Demographic trends


Court volume trends


Crime resolution rate is increasingRecorded crime volume fairly stable over the last decade

Per capita recorded crime rate continued to fall

0

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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

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Crime volumes

Recorded Resolved

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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

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Crime volumes

Recorded Resolved

Crime resolution rate is increasing Recorded crime volume fairly stable over the last decade


Meanwhile, resolved crime increasing

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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

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Crime volumes

Recorded Resolved

Crime resolution rate is increasing Recorded crime volume fairly stable over the last decade


Meanwhile, resolved crime increasingTherefore, crime resolution rate is steadily climbing

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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

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Resolution rate

Resolved rate

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Type of resolution

Prosecution Warned / Cautioned Youth Aid Section Other Family Group Conference Youth Justice

Return to greater use of warnings

Definition: This data includes all criminal offences except Traffic.

1994 to 2002: type of offence resolution was stable

Stable from 1994 to 2002

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Type of resolution




1994 to 2002: type of offence resolution was stable2003 to 2008: fewer warnings and Youth Aid diversion; prosecutions increased

Prosecutions increased, while warnings and Youth Aid declined


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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Type of resolution





Less propensity to prosecute, though conviction rate of those prosecuted has been steadily increasing

Prosecutions increased, while warnings and Youth Aid declined

1994 to 2002: type of offence resolution was stable2003 to 2008: fewer warnings and Youth Aid diversion; prosecutions increased2009 to 2010: less propensity to prosecute:

Warnings returned to previous level (Policing Excellence “Alternative Resolutions”)Though use of Youth Aid has remained at a lower level

Warnings returned to previous level


Demographic trends


Court volume trends


0

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1990

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1992

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Court volume - long term trend

Actual Forecast

Criminal court volumes are falling

Definition: Court volume is measured in terms of number of people with a case or cases ending on a given day. This measure may differ from other court volume statistics.

Court volume stable from 1990 to 2002

Stable 1990 to 2002

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Actual Forecast



Court volume stable from 1990 to 2002Then rose to peak in 2009/10

Stable 1990 to 2002

Peak in 2009 and 2010

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/21

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Actual Forecast



Court volume stable from 1990 to 2002Then rose to peak in 2009/1013% reduction in prosecutions occurred in the 2010/11 year

13% drop in prosecutions in

2010/11

Stable 1990 to 2002


0

20,000

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1990

/91

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/95

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/97

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/99

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/01

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/03

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/05

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/07

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/09

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/11

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/13

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/17

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/21

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Actual Forecast



Police forecast further reduction in offences and prosecutions, returning to the 2005 court volume by 2015.

Court volume stable from 1990 to 2002Then rose to peak in 2009/1013% reduction in prosecutions occurred in the 2010/11 yearPolice forecast a further reduction in prosecutions

Due to Policing Excellence and a general reduction in reported crime

Stable 1990 to 2002


13% drop in prosecutions in

2010/11

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90%

Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11

Prop

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Monthly

Community and Monetary sentences

Monetary CPS Monetary + CPS

Community vs. Monetary sentencesTotal sentence volume is driven by prosecution volume and conviction rateCommunity sentences increasing as a proportion of total sentences

The other sentence types are:

Prison (8% of total)

Other (15% of total, mainly ‘conviction and discharge’ ).

CPS = Community Probation Service

New Community sentences introduced

in October 2007

0%

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Community vs. Monetary sentencesTotal sentence volume is driven by prosecution volume and conviction rateCommunity sentences increasing as a proportion of total sentencesAt the expense of monetary sentences (mostly court-imposed fines)

Due to combination of fines going out of favour and new community sentence options





Forecast assumes slight increase in Community sentence proportion, and slight decrease in Monetary proportion.


in October 2007

0%

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20%

30%

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80%

90%


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Community vs. Monetary sentencesTotal sentence volume is driven by prosecution volume and conviction rateCommunity sentences increasing as a proportion of total sentencesAt the expense of monetary sentences (mostly court-imposed fines)

Due to combination of fines going out of favour and new community sentence options

Total of community + monetary sentences is fairly stable





Forecast assumes slight increase in Community sentence proportion, and slight decrease in Monetary proportion.


in October 2007


Demographic trends


Court volume trends


0

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Quarter ending

Community sentences: Starts

Forecast community sentences startsSentence starts doubled following introduction of new sentences in 2007

Existing sentences, Community Work (64% of total) and Supervision, have also grown strongly since 2007

New sentences introduced in October 2007

Includes %total

CommunityWork

64%

Supervision 17%

IntensiveSupervision

4%

Extended Supervision

0%

Community Detention

9%

Home Detention

6%

Forecast community sentences startsSentence starts doubled following introduction of new sentences in 2007

Existing sentences, Community Work (64% of total) and Supervision, have also grown strongly since 2007

Now expected to essentially plateau, due to declining prosecutions, offset by substitution from fines and remittal of fines to community sentences

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Quarter ending

Community sentences: Starts

New sentences introduced in October 2007

Includes %total

CommunityWork

64%

Supervision 17%

IntensiveSupervision

4%

Extended Supervision

0%

Community Detention

9%

Home Detention

6%

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

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11,000

12,000

Pri

so

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rs

Date

Prison population

4% buffer Reserve capacity

Total capacity Actual weekly maximum 2011 Justice Sector Forecast

Forecast prison populationPrison capacity has increased significantly in recent yearsPrevious forecasts showed an increasing prison population

Change in definition of capacity

New Wiri prison expected to open April 2015

New Mt Eden prison opened 1 June 2011 Old Mt Eden prison closed 1 August 2011

"Reserve Capacity" represents capacity that is not available for operational use, but which could be utilised in an emergency.

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Pri

so

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rs

Date

Prison population

Unused capacity 4% buffer Reserve capacity


Forecast prison populationPrison capacity has increased significantly in recent yearsPrevious forecasts showed an increasing prison population





6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Pri

so

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rs

Date

Prison population



6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Pri

so

ne

rs

Date

Prison population



Forecast prison populationPrison capacity has increased significantly in recent yearsPrevious forecasts showed an increasing prison population2011 forecast is very different:

Includes impacts of Policing ExcellencePrison population peaked in November 2010; forecast to fall over the next few years


Forecast 6% fall in prison population over the next 10 years, compared with 46% increase over the previous 10 years.




5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Pri

so

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rs

Week

Prison population: series of forecasts

2008 forecast 2009 forecast 2010 forecast 2011 forecast Actual

Bending back the curveThe justice sector is a dynamic system that changes over timePolicies and procedures were put in place to reduce the seemingly ever-growing prison population forecastConsequently, newer forecasts reflect changing expectations as the system responds to earlier forecasts

June 2008

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Pri

so

ne

rs

Week




2008 forecast

June 2008

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Pri

so

ne

rs

Week




June 2009

2008 forecast

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Pri

so

ne

rs

Week




2008 forecast

2009 forecastJune 2009

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Pri

so

ne

rs

Week




June 2010 2008 forecast

2009 forecast

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Pri

so

ne

rs

Week




2008 forecast

2009 forecast2010 forecast

June 2010

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Pri

so

ne

rs

Week




June 2011 2008 forecast


5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Pri

so

ne

rs

Week




2011 forecast

2008 forecast


June 2011

Dropping off the peakCurrent prison population per capita is close to the all time high

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25

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100

125

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1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Pri

so

n m

us

ter

(pe

r 10

0,0

00

po

pu

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Historical and forecast prison muster per capita

Dropping off the peakCurrent prison population per capita is close to the all time highThe forecast decline in the prison population returns the per capita rate to around the 2005 level

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Pri

so

n m

us

ter

(pe

r 10

0,0

00

po

pu

latio

n)

Year


Dropping off the peakCurrent prison population per capita is close to the all time highThe forecast decline in the prison population returns the per capita rate to around the 2005 level

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Pri

so

n m

us

ter

(pe

r 10

0,0

00

po

pu

latio

n)

Year


Forecast for 2021 is still more than 3 times higher than in 1950

“Prediction is very difficult,

especially about the future.”Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (1885 - 1962)

Closing comment

Justice Sector Strategy 2011 Justice Sector Forecast Historical perspectives and forecast trends...

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Transcript of Justice Sector Strategy 2011 Justice Sector Forecast Historical perspectives and forecast trends...