June 27, 2007 1

Pacific NorthwestResource Adequacy

Assessment for2010 and 2012

Resource Adequacy ForumSteering Committee MeetingNorthwest Power Pool Offices

June 27, 2007

June 27, 2007 2

OutlineOutline

Review of the Northwest Resource Adequacy Standard

2010 and 2012 Assessments Comparison to Other Reports

June 27, 2007 3

Pacific NorthwestPacific NorthwestResource AdequacyResource Adequacy

StandardStandard

June 27, 2007 4

Guidelines for a StandardGuidelines for a Standard• Components

• Metric – something that can be measured• Target – acceptable value for the metric

• The metric is an assessment of available resources compared to expected loads

• The target is set to minimize the risk of curtailments due to inadequate supply

June 27, 2007 5

MetricsMetrics

Energy – Annual average load/resource balance, in units of average megawatts

Capacity – Surplus sustained-peaking capability, in units of percent

June 27, 2007 6

TargetsTargets

Energy – zero, i.e. loads and resources should be in balance, on average, over the year

Capacity – surplus percent required to cover

Operating reserves Extreme weather event Other contingencies

June 27, 2007 7

WinterWinterCapacity TargetCapacity Target

6% foroperating reserves

15% foradverse temperature reserves

Target: 25% 4% forplanning adjustment reserves

June 27, 2007 8

SummerSummerCapacity TargetCapacity Target

6% foroperating reserves

6% for adverse temperature reserves

Target: 19% 7% forplanning adjustment reserves

June 27, 2007 9

Resource AssessmentResource Assessmentfor for

2010 and 20122010 and 2012

June 27, 2007 10

Resource Adequacy AssessmentResource Adequacy AssessmentEnergyEnergy

2010 2012 Target

Firm L/R Bal

232 18

+ IPP 2528 2528

+ non-firm 1500 1500

Total 4260 4046 0In Average Megawatts

June 27, 2007 11

Resource Adequacy AssessmentResource Adequacy AssessmentCapacityCapacity

2010 2012 Target

Winter 48% 46% 25%

Summer 32% 30% 19%

Surplus generating capacity over the average peak load

June 27, 2007 12

Implementation PlanImplementation Plan “Green light” – Regional power

supply is adequate

““Yellow light”Yellow light” warning – economic standard is not met in either the 3rd or 5th year or if the physical standard is not met in the 5th year.

“Red light” warning – the physical standard is not met in the 3rd year.

June 27, 2007 13

ComparisonComparison to other to other ReportsReports

June 27, 2007 14

“The Forum’s overarching goal is to establish a Resource Adequacy Framework for the PNW to provide a clear, consistent, and unambiguous means of answering the question of whether the region has adequate deliverable resources to meet its loads reliably and to develop an effective implementation framework.”

Resource Adequacy Forum

June 27, 2007 15

“The White Book projections are used as inputs into BPA’s long-range resource planning process to assist planning for adequate and reliable load service for the Federal system and the PNW region.”

Bonneville Power Administration

June 27, 2007 16

“Each year the Northwest Regional Forecast reports the sum of individual utilities’ projected electric loads and anticipated generating resources as an indicator of the Northwest utilities’ need to acquire additional power in the next decade.”

PNUCC

June 27, 2007 17

Comparison of MethodsComparison of Methods

Forum • Uses the Council’s regional load forecast• Assumes full availability of resources• Assumes some use of non-firm resources,

including uncontracted resources• Sets resource targets based on a 5

percent loss-of-load probability

PNUCC • Assesses utility loads and resources• Based on utilities’ assessment of resource

availability and loads• Counts only firm resources• No explicit target for adequacy

BPA

• Similar to PNUCC but includes uncontracted regional resources

• No explicit target for adequacy

June 27, 2007 18

Comparison of MethodsComparison of Methods

Forum • Regional perspective• Does the region as a whole have

sufficient resources, including non-firm resources, to provide adequate service

PNUCC • Utility perspective• Does a utility have sufficient firm

resources to provide adequate service

BPA • Federal perspective• Does the federal supply have sufficient

firm resources to provide adequate service

June 27, 2007 19

Firm Loads and Exports Firm Loads and Exports (2010)(2010)

RA Forum PNUCC BPA

Non-DSI 20919 20843 21878

DSI 302 812 473

Exports 909 866 913

Net Load

22130 23007 23264

June 27, 2007 20

Resources and Imports (2010)Resources and Imports (2010)RA Forum PNUCC BPA*

Firm Hydro 11555 11496 11793

Firm Imports 869 814 873

Large Thermal 4654 4404 6104

Renewable Resources 576 872 81

Miscellaneous 0 24 0

Intra-company 0 404 0

Other 959 0 0

Cogeneration 1057 1152 1991

Non-utility 0 0 1450

Combustion Turbines 2692 1518 2515

Total 22362 20684 24807

*BPA total includes IPP generation

June 27, 2007 21

Load/Resource Balance (2010)Load/Resource Balance (2010)RA

ForumPNUCC BPA

Load 22130 23007 22553

Resources 22362 20684 24807

IPP (3366)

Firm Balance

232 (2323) (1112)

IPP Resources

2528 3086 3366

Bal w/IPP 2760 763 2254

Plan Adjust 1500 0 0

Bal w/adjust 4260 763 2254

June 27, 2007 22

ConclusionsConclusionsForum • Green Light - Regional resources are

sufficient to maintain an adequate supply• Not all regional resources are secured by

utilities• Utilities should examine their own needs and

take appropriate resource actions (some of those actions might be to secure uncommitted regional resources)

PNUCC • Sum of utilities’ firm resources are insufficient to meet firm load

• Utilities need to take resource actions

BPA • Sum of federal firm resources are insufficient to meet firm load

• BPA needs to take resource actions (i.e. press release)