June 04June 04National Council on Ageing and National Council on Ageing and

Older PeopleOlder People

Population Ageing In Population Ageing In Ireland: Projections Ireland: Projections

2002-20212002-2021

Peter Connell and Dennis Peter Connell and Dennis PringlePringle

Trinity College Dublin and National University of Trinity College Dublin and National University of Ireland , Maynooth.Ireland , Maynooth.

Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections

Population projections basically entail making Population projections basically entail making assumptions about the key demographic assumptions about the key demographic variables, namely:variables, namely:– Birth rateBirth ratess,, by age and marital status by age and marital status; ; – DDeath rates/survivorshipeath rates/survivorship,, by age and sex by age and sex; and; and– MMigration ratesigration rates,, by age and sex by age and sex..

These assuptions are then use to extrapolate These assuptions are then use to extrapolate from the current population to ‘predict’ future from the current population to ‘predict’ future population trends.population trends.

Age and SexAge and Sex

Each of the key demographic variables are Each of the key demographic variables are influenced by the composition of the population, influenced by the composition of the population, especially age and sex. Assumptions must especially age and sex. Assumptions must therefore be made for each age and sex therefore be made for each age and sex category.category.

These assumptions are used to estimate the These assumptions are used to estimate the number of births, deaths and movements for number of births, deaths and movements for each age and sex category over the first inter-each age and sex category over the first inter-censal period (i.e. 2002-2006).censal period (i.e. 2002-2006).

The procedure is repeated to project the The procedure is repeated to project the population in 2011, 2016 and 2021.population in 2011, 2016 and 2021.

The Spatial DimensionThe Spatial Dimension

The key demographic variables also vary over The key demographic variables also vary over space (e.g. some areas have higher mortality space (e.g. some areas have higher mortality rates than others; some areas experience net in-rates than others; some areas experience net in-migration, whereas others experience net out-migration, whereas others experience net out-migration).migration).

Unlike other projections which tend to operate at Unlike other projections which tend to operate at the national level, we have attempted to take the national level, we have attempted to take account of these geographical variations by account of these geographical variations by analysing the data at a County / County Borough analysing the data at a County / County Borough level. level.

Additional ConsiderationsAdditional Considerations

In addition to total population by age and sex, by In addition to total population by age and sex, by county, we estimated future trends in various county, we estimated future trends in various other features:other features:– Fertility rates;Fertility rates;– Marriage rates;Marriage rates;– Dependency ratios; andDependency ratios; and– Percentages living alone.Percentages living alone.

Structure of PresentationStructure of Presentation

I will discuss the assumptions underlying our I will discuss the assumptions underlying our projections and summarise the main features of projections and summarise the main features of our projections of the total population by age, sex our projections of the total population by age, sex and county.and county.

Peter will then discuss the projected trends in Peter will then discuss the projected trends in marital status and people living alone, focussing marital status and people living alone, focussing upon the elderly, and also look at the projected upon the elderly, and also look at the projected trends in dependency ratios.trends in dependency ratios.

Assumptions (1) BirthsAssumptions (1) Births

The Total Period Fertility Rate in Ireland fell from The Total Period Fertility Rate in Ireland fell from 4.07 in 1964 to 1.85 in 1995, but subsequently 4.07 in 1964 to 1.85 in 1995, but subsequently increased to almost 2.0.increased to almost 2.0.

We have assumed that the fertility rate will We have assumed that the fertility rate will remain higher than the European average, but remain higher than the European average, but will decline to 1.80 by 2021.will decline to 1.80 by 2021.

These assumptions were used to generate age These assumptions were used to generate age specific birth rates for each inter-censal period specific birth rates for each inter-censal period until 2021.until 2021.

Geographical variations were ignored.Geographical variations were ignored.

Assumptions (2) Deaths (1)Assumptions (2) Deaths (1) Age specific death rates were analysed for the Age specific death rates were analysed for the

period since 1981. period since 1981. Little change was observed for people aged less Little change was observed for people aged less

than 45. It was assumed that the death rates for than 45. It was assumed that the death rates for these ages would remain the same until 2021.these ages would remain the same until 2021.

Deaths rates are still declining for those aged 45-Deaths rates are still declining for those aged 45-54. It is assumed that there will be further 54. It is assumed that there will be further improvements for 5 years, but at a slower rate, improvements for 5 years, but at a slower rate, followed by static rates until 2021.followed by static rates until 2021.

For each of the age groups from 55 upwards, it is For each of the age groups from 55 upwards, it is assumed that improvements will continue until assumed that improvements will continue until 2021 at the same rate as a weighted average 2021 at the same rate as a weighted average over the period since 1981.over the period since 1981.

Assumptions (2) Deaths (2)Assumptions (2) Deaths (2)

Under these assumptions, life expectancy at birth Under these assumptions, life expectancy at birth will increase from 73.0 in 1996 to 78.3 in 2021 for will increase from 73.0 in 1996 to 78.3 in 2021 for males, and from 78.5 to 81.5 for females.males, and from 78.5 to 81.5 for females.

Death rates tend to fluctuate from year to year Death rates tend to fluctuate from year to year for individual counties. However, over the longer for individual counties. However, over the longer term, some counties are observed to have higher term, some counties are observed to have higher death rates than others – all cause SMRs are death rates than others – all cause SMRs are generally within the range 80 to 120. generally within the range 80 to 120.

It was assumed that the geographical variations It was assumed that the geographical variations in mortality observed in the period since 1981 for in mortality observed in the period since 1981 for each age group will remain until 2021.each age group will remain until 2021.

Assumptions (3) Migration (1)Assumptions (3) Migration (1)

Net migration at national level can be defined as Net migration at national level can be defined as the number of immigrants minus the number of the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants. emigrants.

To make projections at a county level, it is To make projections at a county level, it is necessary to make assumptions about the necessary to make assumptions about the number of emigrants leaving each county, and number of emigrants leaving each county, and the number of immigrants moving into each the number of immigrants moving into each county.county.

It is also necessary to make assumptions about It is also necessary to make assumptions about internal migration (i.e. movements between internal migration (i.e. movements between counties). counties).

Assumptions (3) Migration (2)Assumptions (3) Migration (2)

The Census provides information on inter-county The Census provides information on inter-county moves in the previous 12 months. It also provides moves in the previous 12 months. It also provides information on movements into each county from information on movements into each county from abroad in the previous 12 months.abroad in the previous 12 months.

The Census does not provide information on the The Census does not provide information on the moves to abroad from each county – this has to moves to abroad from each county – this has to be estimated as a residual from estimates of net be estimated as a residual from estimates of net migration.migration.

The Census information was used to generate The Census information was used to generate assumptions about the assumptions about the patternspatterns of internal and of internal and external moves for each age group.external moves for each age group.

Movement patterns are based on information Movement patterns are based on information from both the 1996 and 2002 Censuses.from both the 1996 and 2002 Censuses.

Assumptions (3) Migration (3)Assumptions (3) Migration (3)

Predicting the number of moves is much more Predicting the number of moves is much more problematic than predicting births or deaths.problematic than predicting births or deaths.

Ireland has experienced net out-migration for Ireland has experienced net out-migration for most of its history, but the period since 1996 has most of its history, but the period since 1996 has seen large-scale in-migration.seen large-scale in-migration.

It is impossible to know whether the period until It is impossible to know whether the period until 2021 will experience a continuation of recent 2021 will experience a continuation of recent trends, or whether migration will revert to trends, or whether migration will revert to traditional patterns.traditional patterns.

To take account of this uncertainty, four different To take account of this uncertainty, four different projections were made based on four different projections were made based on four different sets of assumptions about external net migration.sets of assumptions about external net migration.

2002-062002-06 2006-112006-11 2011-162011-16 2016-212016-21

A1A1 15,00015,000 10,00010,000 5,0005,000 5,0005,000

A2A2 20,00020,000 15,00015,000 15,00015,000 10,00010,000

A3A3 25,00025,000 17,50017,500 17,50017,500 10,00010,000

A4A4 25,00025,000 25,00025,000 25,00025,000 25,00025,000

Specific ProblemsSpecific Problems Time does not permit a detailed discussion of Time does not permit a detailed discussion of

methodological issues, but there were several methodological issues, but there were several complicating factors. For example:complicating factors. For example:

The 6-year gap between the 1996 and 2002 The 6-year gap between the 1996 and 2002 censuses complicated the tracking of cohorts.censuses complicated the tracking of cohorts.

The most recent Life Tables (1995-7) are quite The most recent Life Tables (1995-7) are quite old, and do not provide county-specific old, and do not provide county-specific estimates. It was therefore necessary to estimates. It was therefore necessary to estimate death and survival rates using data estimate death and survival rates using data from the Annual Reports on Vital Statistics.from the Annual Reports on Vital Statistics.

This, in turn, necessitated the re-assignment of This, in turn, necessitated the re-assignment of deaths within age-groups to cohorts. deaths within age-groups to cohorts.

Projected Population Projected Population

The total population projected The total population projected for 2021 for 2021 ranges ranges from a low of 4.57 million (A1) to a high of 4.91 from a low of 4.57 million (A1) to a high of 4.91 million (A4).million (A4). The other estimates were 4.70 The other estimates were 4.70 million (A2) and 4.75 million (A3).million (A2) and 4.75 million (A3).

The population projected for 2021 by CSO in 2001 The population projected for 2021 by CSO in 2001 ranges from 4.04 million (M2F3) to 4.56 million ranges from 4.04 million (M2F3) to 4.56 million (M1F1).(M1F1).

The population projected for 2020 by Blackwell The population projected for 2020 by Blackwell and Associates in 2001 for the National Spatial and Associates in 2001 for the National Spatial Strategy ranges from 4.39 million (Current Trends Strategy ranges from 4.39 million (Current Trends 2) to 5.02 million (Economic Growth 1).2) to 5.02 million (Economic Growth 1).

Our ‘best’ estimate (A1) lies about halfway Our ‘best’ estimate (A1) lies about halfway between the extremes of the other projections.between the extremes of the other projections.

Geographical PatternsGeographical Patterns Our projections suggest that the largest Our projections suggest that the largest

population increases will be in the east, but that population increases will be in the east, but that the County Boroughs will not experience much the County Boroughs will not experience much growth –with the exception of Galway.growth –with the exception of Galway.

These projections are strongly influenced by the These projections are strongly influenced by the migration patterns in the period 1996-2002. They migration patterns in the period 1996-2002. They suggest that the existing County Borough areas suggest that the existing County Borough areas are approaching ‘saturation’. It is likely that are approaching ‘saturation’. It is likely that Galway CB will become ‘saturated’ before 2021.Galway CB will become ‘saturated’ before 2021.

Population increases can be expected in the Population increases can be expected in the counties adjoining the CBs due to the continued counties adjoining the CBs due to the continued growth of commuter populations.growth of commuter populations.

Percentages Of Older PeoplePercentages Of Older People

The percentage of males aged 65 or more is The percentage of males aged 65 or more is projected to increase from 9.7 in 2002 to between projected to increase from 9.7 in 2002 to between 13.9 (A4) and 14.1 (A1).13.9 (A4) and 14.1 (A1).

The percentage of females aged 65 or more is The percentage of females aged 65 or more is projected to increase from 12.5 in 2002 to projected to increase from 12.5 in 2002 to between 15.8 (A4) and 16.4 (A1) in 2021.between 15.8 (A4) and 16.4 (A1) in 2021.

It must be remembered that these are higher It must be remembered that these are higher percentages of a larger total. The number of percentages of a larger total. The number of males aged 65 or more is projected to increase males aged 65 or more is projected to increase by between 70.2 and 79.1 per cent. The number by between 70.2 and 79.1 per cent. The number of females is projected to increase from between of females is projected to increase from between 52.2 and 57.6 per cent.52.2 and 57.6 per cent.

ImplicationsImplications

The increase in the absolute number of people The increase in the absolute number of people aged 65 or more will have numerous aged 65 or more will have numerous ramifications (e.g. for the health services).ramifications (e.g. for the health services).

On the plus side, the percentage of people aged On the plus side, the percentage of people aged 65 or more is likely to remain under the West 65 or more is likely to remain under the West European average.European average.

Also, a large proportion of those aged 65 or more Also, a large proportion of those aged 65 or more in 2021 will be aged less than 75. The impact of in 2021 will be aged less than 75. The impact of the ageing population will probably be much the ageing population will probably be much greater by 2031 when the ‘baby boomers’ will be greater by 2031 when the ‘baby boomers’ will be about 80.about 80.

Geographical PatternsGeographical Patterns

The highest percentages of people aged over 65 The highest percentages of people aged over 65 will be in the west. will be in the west.

The County Boroughs will generally tend to have The County Boroughs will generally tend to have lower percentages (except Dublin for females).lower percentages (except Dublin for females).

Many of the areas with low percentages have Many of the areas with low percentages have large populations, so the map may give a large populations, so the map may give a misleading impression of the need for services.misleading impression of the need for services.

However, it also suggests that areas with low and However, it also suggests that areas with low and dispersed populations will have higher dispersed populations will have higher percentages of people requiring services.percentages of people requiring services.

June 04June 04National Council on Ageing and National Council on Ageing and

Older PeopleOlder People

Population projections 2002-21Population projections 2002-21

• Population projections by marital statusPopulation projections by marital status

• Past trends and future assumptionsPast trends and future assumptions

• Changing patterns among older age groupsChanging patterns among older age groups

• Projections of older people living aloneProjections of older people living alone

• Geographical patterns of those living aloneGeographical patterns of those living alone

• Dependency ratios – some international Dependency ratios – some international comparisonscomparisons

Martial status – Martial status – past trends and future assumptionspast trends and future assumptions

Marriage rate has stabilised at 5.0 per thousand from 4.3 per Marriage rate has stabilised at 5.0 per thousand from 4.3 per thousand in 1995thousand in 1995

Later age of marriage. 83% females aged 30 to 34 were married in Later age of marriage. 83% females aged 30 to 34 were married in 1986 compared to 60% in 20021986 compared to 60% in 2002

Assumption – slow decline in marriage rate. 53% of females aged 30 Assumption – slow decline in marriage rate. 53% of females aged 30 to 34 married in 2021.to 34 married in 2021.

Gradual decline in total fertility rate but will remain above that of most Gradual decline in total fertility rate but will remain above that of most western European countries.western European countries.

Rising rates of martial separation. In 2002 10% of females aged 40 to Rising rates of martial separation. In 2002 10% of females aged 40 to 54 recorded as separated or divorced. Assumption – trend evident in 54 recorded as separated or divorced. Assumption – trend evident in 1996-2002 to continue to 2011 then increase more slowly.1996-2002 to continue to 2011 then increase more slowly.

Future martial status of older population easier to project based on Future martial status of older population easier to project based on current population aged 45 and over.current population aged 45 and over.

Projected change in population by marital status, 2002-21Projected change in population by marital status, 2002-21

15 - 39 40 - 64 65 - 74

75 andover 15 - 39 40 - 64 65 - 74

75 and over 15 - 39 40 - 64 65 - 74

75 and over

2002 1084 195 40 37 464 909 152 63 2 41 53 90

2006 1085 219 35 33 484 1001 172 70 2 38 53 92

2011 1044 259 36 32 506 1088 210 72 3 40 60 102

2016 1010 297 41 31 489 1166 261 88 2 36 70 107

2021 1019 324 47 33 448 1245 302 118 2 24 76 123

Single Married Widowed

Percentage changePercentage change in males and females by marital status, 2002-2021in males and females by marital status, 2002-2021

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

MalesSingle

FemalesSingle

MalesMarried

FemalesMarried

MalesWidowed

FemalesWidowed

65 - 74

75+

•Slight increase in number of single males; fall in number of single females of 75 and over

•Over 80% increase in married males aged 65 to 74

•Over 70% increase in married females aged 65 to 74

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

65 to 74 75 andover

65 to 74 75 andover

65 to 74 75 andover

Single Married Widow ed

Changing composition of the older population, 2002-21

•As a proportion of all 65 and over

• Single people will fall from 18% to 11%

• Married people will rise from 49% to 60%

• Widowed people will fall from 33% to 28%

Martial status of older populationMartial status of older population

Population 65 and over to increase by 262,000.Population 65 and over to increase by 262,000. Married persons 65 and over to increase by Married persons 65 and over to increase by

204,000.204,000. Proportion of older people who are single to fall Proportion of older people who are single to fall

from more than 1 in 6 to 1 in 9from more than 1 in 6 to 1 in 9 Number of older people separated to rise from Number of older people separated to rise from

9,000 to 60,000 (8% of older population).9,000 to 60,000 (8% of older population).

Geographical patterns – single older peopleGeographical patterns – single older people

Overall number of single older people to rise Overall number of single older people to rise marginally – 77,000 to 80,000marginally – 77,000 to 80,000

Most of increase to take place in Dublin Most of increase to take place in Dublin hinterland – 6,500 to 11,500hinterland – 6,500 to 11,500

Numbers in west and north west to remain Numbers in west and north west to remain constant – 18,000 to 18,500constant – 18,000 to 18,500

Sharp decline in proportion of single older men in Sharp decline in proportion of single older men in this region – from 28% to 21%this region – from 28% to 21%

Projected numbers of older people living aloneProjected numbers of older people living alone

Growing propensity of older Growing propensity of older people to live alonepeople to live alone

Up to 2006 growing propensity Up to 2006 growing propensity of single and widowed to live of single and widowed to live alone cancelled out by alone cancelled out by growing proportion of growing proportion of marrieds.marrieds.

Overall number of older Overall number of older people living alone to almost people living alone to almost double 2002-2021double 2002-2021

Proportion living alone will Proportion living alone will increase from 25% to 30%.increase from 25% to 30%.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1996 2002 2006 2011 2016 2021

Geographical patterns of older people living aloneGeographical patterns of older people living alone

Geographical patterns of increase in numbers of Geographical patterns of increase in numbers of older people living alone, 2002-2021older people living alone, 2002-2021

20022002 20212021 ChangeChange % change% change

MalesMales FemalesFemales MalesMales FemalesFemales

Dublin CoDublin Co 14181418 41504150 55295529 1471414714 +14675+14675 +264%+264%

KildareKildare 799799 16201620 24942494 49194919 +4994+4994 +206%+206%

MeathMeath 887887 18381838 24382438 45664566 +4279+4279 +157%+157%

WicklowWicklow 873873 19031903 23102310 45404540 +4074+4074 +147%+147%

Galway Galway CityCity

335335 916916 958958 20972097 +1804+1804 +144%+144%

Historic and projected trends in Historic and projected trends in Irish dependency ratiosIrish dependency ratios

Projected

• Accelerating increase in ‘old age’ dependency ratio after 2011

• ‘Young dependency’ ration stabilising after sustained fall up to 2002

• Overall dependency ratio projected to rise after 2006

Ireland’s ‘old age’ dependency ratio – Ireland’s ‘old age’ dependency ratio – some international comparisonssome international comparisons

• Ireland’s ‘old age’ dependency ratio very low relative to other developed countries

• Internationally, this dependency ratio projected to increase significantly by 2020 (UN)

• Projected Irish ratio in 2021 similar to current situation in some European countries – see UK, Spain, France