Jun Arima, JETRO- Asia Business Week Dublin
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ASIA BUSINESS WEEK DUBLINFourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table
6 June 2014
Business Benefit of EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement
Jun Arima,Director General, JETRO London
Kindly sponsored by:
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June 2014Jun ARIMA
Director General, JETRO London
Business Benefit of EU-Japan EPA
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Japan-EU Position in the World
Population(2012) Japan+EU=9.0% Trade(2012) Japan+EU=35.8%
Source; World Bank, World Development Indicators, October 2013 Source; IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics, October 2013
Source; IMF, World Economics Outlook Database, October 2013
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GDP(2012) Japan+EU=31.4%
Japan EU Position in the World
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Source: Ministry of Finance Japan 4
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Share of European vehicles in Japan Share of Japanese vehicles in the EU
(units)
Source: JADA, JAIA *Preliminary figuresSource: JAMA
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Most Japanese Vehicles in Europe are Locally Produced
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EU : No.1 Investor to Japan 68 billion euro(2012)Japan: No.3 Investor to the EU 144 billion euro(2011)
Source: BOJ(calculated in arbitrated foreign exchange rate by BOJ), Eurostat
Survey of Overseas Business Activities as of 2011(FY) , METI
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UK 140,705
Germany 59,304
Netherlands 58,227
Belgium 38,226
France 25,319
Italy 21,545
Spain 12,848
Total +465,000
Employment by Japanese Companies in Europe
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Global Partnership
Shared Value- Democracy- Rule of law- Human rights- Market based economy- Sustainable development
Common Challenges- Growth deceleration- Rise of emerging countries- Strains on financial markets- Fiscal constrains- Global warming
Why EPA? - Common Values and Challenges -
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4th/144 in Market Size (WEF GCI 2013-2014)
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GDP Comparison Between Japan’s Region and Foreign Countries
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Robust Economic Recovery
Annual Hike 57%Highest in 41 Years
Real GDP Growth -3.0% (3Q12) +4.5%(1Q13) +3.5%(2Q13) +1.3%(3Q13) +0.3%(4Q13) +4.9% (1Q14)
Private Consumption -1.9% (3Q12) +1.5% (4Q13) + 8.5% (1Q14)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -5.3%(3Q12) +7.3%(4Q13) +12.1%(1Q14)
Corporate Performance +12% in Sales +50% in Profit (2013/2012)
Year-on-Year Bonus -3.5% (2012) +3.5% (2013)
Unemployment - 4.9% (Dec12) 3.6% (Mar14)
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Investment* 120 BN yen 454 BN yen(Japan→Switzerland)
378%↑
Source: Bank of Japan
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Why EPA? - Expansion of FDI - Japanese FDI to Switzerland
Japanese Auto Production in MexicoJapan
MexicoEPA
(2005)+84%
Japan-Swiss EPA
(2009)
(2008) (2012)
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Why EPA? - Economic Growth -
Policy Options BaselineValues (billion €)
Conservative A-symmetricReduction of NTB
Conservative Symmetric Reduction of NTB
AmbitiousA-symmetricReduction ofNTB
AmbitiousSymmetric Reduction of NTB
GDP 17,643 +0.34% +0.75% +0.79% +1.88%
Global Export (FOB)
5,334 +1.2% +2.7% +2.8% +6.7%
GlobalImport (CIF)
5,611 +1.2% +2.8% +2.9% N/A
Exports to Japan 68 +22.6% +23.7% +32.7% N/A
Impact Assessment Report by European Commission (Aug 2012)
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Why EPA? - Japan as the Gateway to Asia Pacific Market -
Source: METI 14
Increase FTA Share from 19% to 70% by 2018
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TTIP
Japan -EU・EPA
TPP
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Forming Mega FTA Triangle
Shared Value- Democracy- Rule of law- Human rights- Market economy
High-level EPA/FTA among developed countries sharing common values => Rule making for global trade and investment
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Elimination of high tariffs on industrial products ( e.g. automobiles: 10%, electronic devices: 14%) to improve competitive condition for Japanese products in the European market
Regulatory issues facing Japanese companies in Europe
Non-Tariff Measures(NTMs) on automobiles, chemicals, electronic devices, food safety, processed food, medical devices, pharmaceuticals etc
Government procurement(e.g. railways)
Elimination of tariffs on the main export products to Japan.
Japan’s interest EU’s interest
Japan-EU EPA/FTAEU-Japan EPA/FTA Negotiation Started in April 2013. Five rounds of negotiation to date
EU will review the progress in May/June 2014
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Japan is addressing NTMs Automobile
35 out of 47 UNECE passenger vehicle regulation adopted. 8 regulations under adoption process.
Zoning approval for automobile service shop more than doubled (14 in 2011FY to 32 in 2012FY) based on Technical Guideline
Expanded exemption of Pyrotechnic Safety Devices (Feb 2012) Adopting GTR for high pressure gas tank by June 2014
Pharmaceutical/Medical DevicesAmendment of Pharmaceutical Affairs Law (autumn 2013) to address
authorization procedures, QMS, labelling requirement etcRevision of Minimum Requirement for Biological Products (Sept 2013)Amendment of Good Clinical Practice Ordinance (Dec 2012)Applying membership in Pharmaceutical Inspection Cooperation Scheme
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Japan is addressing NTMs Food Safety
37 out of 45 internationally used food additives designated. Remaining 8 in the process of designation
Lifting import ban of cattle meat and offal in Feb 2013 (France, Netherlands) and Dec 2013 (Ireland)
Amendment of Ministerial Ordinance on Organic Food (April 2013)
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European Companies in Japanese Government Procurement
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Let’s Strike a Deal in 2015 ! “We confirmed the importance of an early conclusion, and 2015 is the target date for a basic agreement" - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe @Brussels 7 May 2014 -
20Source: Cabinet Office HP
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Industries Expect Early Conclusion
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Thank you