Chairman Message

N TERREEWSLE

Monsoon is defined as reversalof “wind direction” in tropicalregions and its prediction mustadhere to the time of this reversal.Rain is one of the consequences ofreversal of “wind direction”. InIndian context, about 75 to 80percent of annual rainfall is realizedduring South west monsoon season.Having an agro based economy, inpublic perception the monsoonprediction became synonymous toprediction of total quantum ofrainfall during SW Monsoon seasonwith its spatial and temporaldistribution. The severe famineduring 1877 made the necessity ofMonsoon rains forecast as essentialinput for financial budget. The firstregular long range forecast ofmonsoon rainfall was issued on 4thJune 1886 by Sir H.F. Blanford. It wasbased on snowfall in Himalayasduring winter. Sir Gilbert Walkercorrelated the global circulation andits various facets with monsoonrainfall. From 1886 to 1934 longrange forecast was issued for wholeIndia (including Myanmar), zonewise for NE India, NW India andPeninsula. But in absence of suitablepredictor for NE India from 1935 to1987 long range of monsoon rainfallwas issued for NW India andPeninsula only. In 1988, IMDdeveloped a 16 parameter model toissue long range forecast for wholecountry. From 2003 Long rangeforecast is given in 2 stages one in lastweek of April (based on 5parameters) and second stageupdates in June (based on 6parameters). Even though IndiaMeteorological Department ispioneer in the area, now manynational and international institutesare working in the field. Those areThe Space Applications Centre -A h m e d a b a d , C e n t r e f o rMathemat ica l Mode l ing andComputer Simulation - Bangalore,Indian Institute of Technology -Bhubaneswar, Indian Institute ofScience - Bangalore, Centre forDisaster Mitigation, Jain University -Ba n g a l o r e , a n d C en t e r fo r

Issue

7

july

2014 Monsoon Prediction for India −2014

D e ve l o p m e n t o f A d va n c e dComputing Pune. The NationalCen t e r s fo r Env i ronmen t a lPrediction - USA, InternationalResearch Institute for Climate andSociety - USA, Meteorological Office- UK, Meteo - France, The EuropeanCenter for Medium Range WeatherForecasts - UK, Japan MeteorologicalAgency, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,A s i a n - P a c i f i c E c o n o m i cCooperation (APEC) Climate Centre- Korea and World MeteorologicalOrganization's Lead Centre for LongRange Forecasting - Multi-ModelEnsemble etc. The list is mentionedjust to appraise importance given atnational and international level tomonsoon prediction. The forecastsand outputs from these Institutes areconsidered before finalizing theformal forecast.

Rainfall over the country as awhole for the 2014 southwestmonsoon season (June to September)is likely to be below normal (90-96%of long period average (LPA)).

Quantitatively, monsoon seasonrainfall for the country as a whole islikely to be 93% of the long periodaverage (88.8cm) with a model errorof ±4%.

85% of LPA (61.5 cm) overNorth-West India,

94% of LPA (97.6cm) overCentral India,

93% of LPA (71.6 cm) overSouth Peninsula and

99% of LPA (143.8 cm) overNorth-East India all with a modelerror of ± 8 %.

Main highlights of Long RangeForecast of South West Monsoon2014 are

Region wise, the season rainfallis likely to be -

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"Answer to a Billion Drops Question"

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PAGE 2 N TERREEWSLE

Number of the Month

Source: OECD ENVIRONMENTALOUTLOOK TO 2050: The Consequences

of Inaction

70 %

Cities are likely to

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world population

growth between 2010

and 2050. By 2050,

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“

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For the previous quiz, we received a few entries but none was correct. The answer isBarbados island is located in North Atlantic Ocean.

PAGE 3N TERREEWSLE

Graphic

India monsoon

forecast

India's June-September

monsoon rainfall is

likely to be “well

distributed” and

“adequate”, according

to a forecast for the

season by weather

analytics firm Skymet

Weather Services Pvt.

Ltd, boosting the

likelihood of an

economic recovery if

the prediction is

proven right.

Credit: SkymetFurther read- http://www.skymet.net/index.php

“Human use,population, and technologyhave reached that certain stagewhere mother Earth no longeraccepts our presence withsilence.”

― Dalai Lama XIV

15 June 2013 was thedarkest day for the state ofUttaranchal. Kedarnath -one of the importantpilgrimage centers in Indiaand considered as one ofthe Char Dhams (fourmust-visit pilgrimagecenters) was terriblyaffected due to cloudbursts.

A debate over thenumber of people killed isstill there. The death toll isbetween 5000 to 10000,and many people are stillmissing. In India, this isnot the first incidence off l a s h f l o o d s a n dcloudbursts. In 1908 onecloud burst was reported.After a span of 62 years,another cloud burstoccurred in July 1970 inUttarakhand. Since 1990s,17 cloudbursts haveh a p p e n e d t o c a u s emassive damage to livesand property, of which atleast 11 cloudburstsoccurred only in the hillystates of Uttarakhand,Himachal Pradesh andJammu & Kashmir. In

fact, now this phenomenons e e m s t o b e h i g h l yfrequent: 11 out of the 17cloud bursts occurred onlyduring 2010-2013. Expertssay that the increase inf r e q u e n c y o f s u c hincidences is because ofclimate change. While wecan easily categorize this asa natural disaster, I attributethis as a human-maded i s a s t e r . E c o l o g i c a ldisasters are a result ofdisturbance in the naturalrhythm due to adoptinglifestyles and technologypractices that change thebasic constitution ofnature. Uttarakhand, theplace where the disasterhappened in June, is locatedat the foothills of theHima l ayan mounta inregion and is abundantlyrich in forests, mountainsand water and is an idealplace for hydropowergeneration. We clearlyknow the real culprits inthis case. It is not nature butw e h u m a n b e i n g s .Especially the hill regionsdue to their topography areextremely fragile, anddeforestation along themountain tracts wouldmean inviting the peril. Thefactor seems to be a keytrigger in influencing thedisaster. Dams involvemassive destruction of

fragile mountain ecosystemthrough extracting resourcesfrom the riverbeds forconstruction, drilling tunnels,b l a s t ing rocks, l ay ingtransmission lines, runningof giant turbines, along withaltering the hydrology of theregion.

We know that most ofthis demand for hydroelectricp o w e r a n d b e t t e rinfrastructure comes fromthe urban dwellers, who donot even understand therelevance of ecosystemservices to their everyday life.The problem lies in themindset of most of theurbanized people and policymakers who think that am a g i c w a n d c a l l e dtechnology is the key to allproblems in India. Ourtechnologies have proved tobe regressive in terms ofincreasing the size of ourecological footprints.

First of all we need toease the pressure of humansettlements and promotemore balanced developmentmodels. We should respectthe ecologically fragile zonesand protect them fromexploitation. The growthshould allow nature tobreathe, regenerate andrecuperate.

Man Made Natural calamities - Uttaranchal

- From the Editor’s Desk

MONSOON FORECASTIndia's monsoon rainfall is likely to be

"well distributed" and "adequate",

according to a forecast for the season by

weather analytics firm Skymet, boosting

the likelihood of an economic recovery if

the predicition is proven right

Jun-Sep 2013

scale

indicates

percentage

diviation

from that

region's

normal

50

40

30

20

10

0

- 10

- 20

- 30

- 40

- 50

Rainfall

Depature

All India

+3%

Rainfall probabilities

June July August September

+5% of LPALPA=16.3cm

+5%LPA=28.9cm

+3%LPA=26.1cm

+3%LPA=17.3cm

78%

7% 15%

62%

13% 25%

71%

22%7%

50%

22% 28%

LPA (long-period average) is the 50 year average of rainfall

over India and is 89cm

Source : Skymet

TERRE Policy Centre

City Office:

Rural Office and demonstration centre:

22 Budhwar Peth, Pune - 411002

Pandit Ajgaokar Scheme, Khandobacha Mal, Bhugaon, Pune - 411042

PAGE 4 N TERREEWSLE

For feedback, suggestions and contributions contact us at

DECLARATION: TERRE Policy Centre is a non-profit organization and this NewsleTERRE is a purely informative and non-commercial activity of TERRE Policy Centre. Thesource of information is always credited, where applicable.

EditorDr. Vinitaa Apte (President, TERRE)

NewsleTERRE:

Editorial Team : Mrunmayi Apte, Amol GhorpadeTinfo@terrepolicycentre.comWwww.terrepolicycentre.com

We are now CLEANand GREEN! We usesolar energy to extract

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l Gore teams upwith climatechange sceptic andAustralian MPClive Palmer for a

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NETWORK

NEWS

The monthly rainfall over thecountry as whole is likely to be 93% ofits LPA during July and 96% of LPAduring August both with a model errorof ± 9 %. Regional forecast andmonthly forecast has wide margin oferror and difficult to use in decisionmaking. We should keep in mind thatlong range forecast is issued for regionand for whole season. As it is anaverage value, there will be variationboth at higher side and lower side ofthe forecasted value from place toplace. Many a times most of the seasonreels under deficit and make up isachieved in last part of the season.Even in good monsoon years on anaverage about 8 % area reels underdrought while in bad monsoon yearabout 1% area gets excess rains.Sometimes within meteorologicalhomogeneous region some part reelsunder drought while other gets excessrain. Thus even though long rangeforecast became reasonably correct,the damage to crops etc becomes morethan expected. We should understandthat long range forecast is meant forpolicy decisions and large scaleplanning like release of water fromreservoirs, making availability of seedsand fertilizers, imports of food grainand similar disaster mitigation majors.It is not meant for day to day fieldoperations. For the agriculturalpurposes farmers should refer tomedium and short range weatherforecasts and advisories issued by IMDand agricultural experts. Even thoughdownscaling of monsoon predictionboth at scale of area and time isdesirable we have to wait little more. Inconclusion the monsoon predictionsshould be used as Decision Makingtool keeping in view of high variabilityof rainfall both in space and time andthe limitations of the forecastingtechniques.

- Mr. Nilkanth Y. ApteDy. Director General of Meteorology (Retd.),

India Meteorological Department

From page no. 1...