July 18th 201928th May-2020

TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT

12:30 PM EUR SPANISH CPI (YOY) - -0.7% -NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

05:30 PM EURGERMAN CPI

(MOM) (MAY)-0.1% 0.4% -

NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

06:00 PM USDINITIAL JOBLESS

CLAIMS2,100K 2,438K -

NEGATIVE

FOR USD

06:00 PM USD

CORE DURABLE

GOODS ORDERS

(MOM) (APR)

-14.0% -0.2% -NEGATIVE

FOR USD

06:00 PM USD GDP (QOQ) (Q1) -4.8% -4.8% -NEGATIVE

FOR USD

06:30 PM USDCRUDE OIL

INVENTORIES-1.944M -4.983M -

NEGATIVE

FOR CRUDE

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

SNAPSHOT

SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND

AUDUSD 0.6619 -0.01 NEUTRAL

NZDUSD 0.6188 0.15 NEUTRAL

EURUSD 1.1021 0.16 STRONG

GBPUSD 1.2267 0.14 NEUTRAL

USDJPY 107.84 0.12 STRONG

USDCAD 1.3756 0.04 WEAK

USDCHF 0.9685 0.02 NEUTRAL

DXY 98.88 -0.18 WEAK

GOLD 1,713.18 0.24 STRONG

SILVER 17.317 0.26 STRONG

CRUDEOIL 31.54 -3.87 NEUTRAL

MARKET BYTES:

• ASIAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED WEAKAsian benchmark indices finished in negative territory on Wednesdayon escalating tensions between US and China. On the data front, profitsat China's industrial firms slipped by 27.4% YoY to CNY 125.98 billion inJanuary-April 2020. At close, the Shanghai Composite lost 9.74 points or0.34% to 2,836.8, the Hang Seng Index lost 183.36 points or 0.78% to23,201.3, the Nikkei 225 added 148.06 points or 0.7% to 21,419.23, andthe KOSPI added 1.42 points or 0.07% to 12-week highs of 2,031.20.

• AUSTRALIA’S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: AUSTRALIA Q1 PRIVATEINVESTMENT FALLS MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED

Private capital expenditure in Australia dropped by 1.6% in the threemonths to March 2020, compared with the December quarter'sdownwardly revised and market anticipation of a 2.6% gain, which wasthe fifth straight decline in private investment.

ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MSCI

OUR VIEW

MSCI has formed a ‘Bearish Belt Hold’ candlestick pattern in previous trading session that signals the strength of sellers and continuation of bearish momentum cannot be ruled out. A slippage below 311 levels will activate more sellers for building short positions.

AUDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

AUD/USD has witnessed some long liquidation after tagging its potential resistance thatis placed at 0.6692 levels. The pair is likely to consolidate as RSI is slipped below 60levels. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for a lackluster move.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL BUY BUY BUY

SENTIMETER SELL NEUTRAL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:

AUDUSDThe Australian dollar is in consolidation phase after Private capital expenditure inAustralia dropped by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter in March, compared with the previousquarter's downwardly revised and lower than market estimate of a 2.6% gain. However,market sentiment remained optimistic over the re-opening of global economies.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 0.6611 0.6572 0.6542 0.6640

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

AUDUSD 0.6380 0.6000 0.6900 0.7100

0.

NZDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:NZD/USD has witnessed some selling pressure after the successful re-test of previoushigh that is placed at 0.6230 levels on hourly scale. The pair is expected to witnessweakness after slipping below 30-hours Exponential Moving Average.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY BUY

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA SELL SELL BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL BUY BUY NEUTRAL

SENTIMETER SELL BUY BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :NZDUSDNZD/USD pair seesawed after the ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand roseto -41.8 in May from a -66.6 in the previous month, which was 32-years low. Meantime,the government of NZ eased lockdown restrictions to level 2 in its four-tier alert system.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 0.6176 0.6151 0.6120 0.6197

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

NZDUSD 0.5900 0.5700 0.6317 0.6450

EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED WITH GAINSEuropean equities market closed in positive territory on Wednesdayafter the European Commission proposed a €750 billion Recovery FundPlan, which includes €500 billion in grants and €250 billion in loans, tosupport countries. At close, the DAX 30 advancing 1.3% to 11,656, theCAC 40 rose 65 points, or 1.4% to 4,680, the FTSE 100 closed up 76points or 1.3% at 6,144, the FTSE MIB edged up 30 points, or 0.2% to17,989, and the IBEX 35 climbed 171 points, or 2.4% to 7,175.

• UK CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: DEATHS ROSE 412 VS 134 PREVIOUSDAYThe Department of health said that the United Kingdom’s death tollfrom confirmed cases of COVID-19 rose by 134 to 37,048. Total of267,240 are now infected with the virus across Britain up 2,013 fromyesterday.

EURUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:EUR/USD is on the verge of breaching the formation of ‘Ascending Triangle’ on 4-hourscale that signals for an expansion in standard deviation after a slippage. RSI is trading at64.83 levels showing no signs of divergence an overbought.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY BUY BUY

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL BUY BUY BUY

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY BUY BUY

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :EURUSDEUR/USD pair rallied after the EU Commission proposed a 750 billion euro recoveryfund to lift the economy. Later the day, the EU will publish May’s Consumer Confidence,foreseen unchanged at -18.8 and the Economic Sentiment Indicator for the samemonth, expected at 70.3.STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 1.1037 1.1070 1.1100 1.1010

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

EURUSD 1.0727 1.0643 1.1250 1.1500

GBPUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has formed a classic ‘Marubozu’ candle stick pattern that often signalscontinuation of downtrend. RSI is closed at 65.82 levels showing no signs of divergenceand oversold situation. DMI’s have been converged for continuation of upside.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBPUSD pair is in positive territory as Brexit hopes continue to underpin the demandfor pound against the greenback. However, there is no economic event in bothcountries today.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 1.2512 1.2545 1.2578 1.2486

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

GBPUSD 1.2300 1.2270 1.2380 1.2400

GBPUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has been bounced back after sensing support from lower portion of ‘RisingChannel’ pattern on hourly scale. The pair is trading near 50-hours Exponential MovingAverage. Stochastic oscillator is continued with bullish crossover.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL NEUTRAL BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL BUY BUY SELL

SENTIMETER SELL NEUTRAL BUY SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBP/USD pair has continued its consolidation phase after UK Prime Minister Johnsonstated that markets along with car companies will re-open from June 1 while other non-essential retail will open from June 15.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 1.2280 1.2333 1.2376 1.2250

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

GBPUSD 1.1927 1.1417 1.2661 1.3026

MARKET BYTES:

• US EQUITY FINISHED MIXED ON FRIDAYU.S equity ended mixed on Friday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closedmarginally lower at 0.1% and 0.2% or 2 and 18 points respectively whileDow Jones was marginally higher at 0.1% or 37 points as US retail salesbeat market expectations in August led by increase in consumption ofauto sector and online shopping platform stimulate the economicgrowth.

• TRUMP URGE TO GM AS UAW (UNITED AUTO WORKERS) CALLSFOR STRIKE SINCE 2007

On Sunday, President Trump said to avoid the strike around 48,000workers, the UAW and General Motors to come together to negotiateand “make a deal”. The strike is to improve wages, reopen idled plants,add jobs at others and close or narrow the difference between pay ratesfor new hires and veteran workers of UAW while General Motors wantsits employees to pay a standard remuneration of their health careexpenses, and to increase productive work-force in their work place.

US ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• U.S EQUITY MARKET CLOSED HIGHERU.S equity market closed in green for the third consecutive day onWednesday on back of reopening hopes and positive development of aCoronavirus vaccine. At close, the final numbers were: the Dow Jonesgained 553 points or 2.2% to 25,548 to close above 25,000 for the firsttime since March. Meanwhile, the S&P climbed 44 points or 1.5% to 3,036and the NASDAQ jumped 72 points or 0.8% to 9,412.

• COVID-19 UPDATE: US DEATHS TOLL SURPASSED 100,000 MARKThe number of deaths from the coronavirus rose above 353,000 onWednesday. In the US, the death toll reached to 100,047 as ofWednesday evening. Across the globe, more than 5.6 million people havecontacted with the U.S. accounting for roughly 30% of total cases.

DOLLAR INDEX

OUR VIEW:The DXY has formed a ‘Spinning Top’ candlestick pattern in previous trading session that signals for indecisiveness in the sentiments of market participants. RSI is trading at 41.46 levels but expected to witness weakness after slipping below 40 levels. Stochastic oscillator is continued with bearish crossover.

OUTLOOK: WEAK

USDJPY TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/JPY is continued to trade back and forth in a narrow range of 107.35-108.05 levelson hourly scale. The pair is flirting with 30-hours Exponential Moving Average. RSI istrading at 58.37 levels but expected to expand after breaching 60 levels.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY BUY

BOLLINGER BAND BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY SELL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:USDJPYUSD/JPY is in bullish territory despite the number of coronavirus-related deaths in theUS has surpassed 100,000. Later the day, US will publish its weekly Initial Jobless Claimsdata, foreseen at 2,100K compared with 2,438K in the previous week.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 107.96 108.30 108.67 107.75

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

USDJPY 106.00 103.00 109.37 111.70

USDCAD TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CAD has formed a ‘Three Falling Peaks’ pattern on hourly scale in which everypullback is considered as a selling opportunity by the market participants. RSI is slippedbelow 40 levels showing no signs of divergence an oversold. Stochastic oscillator is hintingfor more weakness.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL SELL SELL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

10 SMA BUY BUY SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL BUY

SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCADThe loonie pair remained in negative territory after the building permits in Canadaplunged 17.1% from a month earlier to CAD 6 billion in April, from a downwardly revised13.4% fall in March, which was the biggest fall since October 2008 due to the Coronaviruscrisis.STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 1.3720 1.3679 1.3640 1.3755

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

USDCAD 1.3574 1.3354 1.3870 1.4050

USDCHF TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CHF is trading in a ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern on 4-hour scale that signals forindecisiveness in the sentiments of market participants. The pair is flirting with 50 (4-hours) Exponential Moving Average. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for a lacklustermove.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY NEUTRAL SELL BUY

SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCHFUSD/CHF pair has failed to get any direction after the Swiss investor sentiment indexrose to 31.3 points in May from the previous month to 12.7 points, which is reflectingthat markets are optimistic over economic recovery in the next six months. Meanwhile,the qualitative tool scrutinizing current conditions fell to -55.2 from -53.2 in April.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 0.9700 0.9725 0.9750 0.9680

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

USDCHF 0.9400 0.9200 0.9900 1.0028

GOLD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAU/USD has been bounced back after failing to sustain below 61.8% retracement thatis placed at 1,706.88 levels on hourly scale. The precious metal is on the verge ofbreaching 50-hours Exponential Moving Average. Stochastic oscillator is continued withbullish crossover.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 1707.66 1721.90 1735.50 1695.00

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

GOLD 1669.45 1626.10 1754.00 1800.00

SILVER TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAG/USD is on the verge of breaching the formation of ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ formedon hourly scale that signals for an expansion in standard deviation after a slippage. RSIis expected to expand after breaching 60 levels. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for moreupside.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 17.410 17.644 17.916 17.183

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

SILVER 15.638 14.720 18.242 19.700

CRUDEOIL TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL VIEW:Crude Oil WTI futures has witnessed a steep fall after forming a ‘Double Top’ pattern onhourly scale that signals for a bearish reversal and possesses high reliability. BollingerBands have shown lower strength while the re-test of previous highs. RSI is slippedbelow 33.43 levels and hinting for more downside.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

- - - - -

SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

CRUDE OIL - - - -