Julian R - Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Global Plant Biodiversity
Julian R - CIATs Work on Cassava and Climate Change
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Transcript of Julian R - CIATs Work on Cassava and Climate Change
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CIAT’s work on Cassava and Climate Change
Julian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis / Patricia Moreno
• Earlier work: Could cassava be the answer for climate change
adaptation?• Our workplan
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Earlier work• Jarvis et al. in press
• Ceballos et al. 2011
• Herrera et al. (2011)
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Is cassava the answer for climate change adaptation?
• Using the EcoCrop model, calibrated with expert knowledge and CIAT cassava program data
Ceballos et al. 2011Jarvis et al. in press
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Our 2012 workplan(objective)
Improve existing estimates of climate change impacts on cassava and set up breeding priorities for climate change adaptation
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Our 2012 workplan
1. Realise that we need a mechanistic model!2. James Cock and his old 70’s model
3. Model development Component StatusCanopy development (LAI)PhenologyBiomassRoot biomass and yieldWater balanceDrought responseCO2 responseSoil nutrient responsePestsDiseases
YGPIn process
2012>2012
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Our 2012 workplan4. GLAMorize the cassava model
General Large Area Model (GLAM)
Large-area models are able to reproduce large-scale historical yield responses to climate and inter-annual variability
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AgTrials.org (929 cassava trials)• 5. Calibrate and evaluate the model using multi-
site trial / historical yield data
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Our 2012 workplan6. Run the model and improve current estimates
Liu et al. (2008)
What I am sure of is that cassava is far more plastic than this map suggests
J. Cock (2011)
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A way beyond• First reputable cassava process-based model
with all key components• To be coupled with socio-economic data and
models• Also useful for evaluating other technologies
and a base for incorporating other components