Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd - content.indiainfoline.com

16
Premia Research Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd CMP: ` 689-year Target: `851 Sector Pharma Recommendation BUY Upside 24% Stock Data Sensex 34,734 52 Week h/l (`) 1,039 / 600 Market cap (`Cr) 11,953 BSE code 530019 NSE code JUBILANT FV (`) 1 Div yield (%) 0.4 Shareholding Pattern Dec-17 Mar-18 June-18 Promoters 54.0 50.7 50.7 DII+FII 26.1 29.0 29.3 Individuals 19.9 20.3 20.0 Source: www.bseindia.com Share Price Trend Prices as on 15/10/2018 Analyst– Shrikant Akolkar [email protected] October 15, 2018 Jubilant Life Sciences (JLS), an integrated global pharma/life sciences company, aims to grow its revenue with ramp-up of Ruby-fill, monopoly in venom products, higher demand for lyophilization services, and improving ingredients business. We forecast revenue and adj. PAT CAGR of 15.7% and 18.4% respectively over FY18-20E, with ~70bps EBITDA margin expansion. We recommend BUY with target price of `851 (SOTP). Diversified business with strong entry barriers: JLS has created a diversified business with nine separate business verticals. Specialty injectables (~30% EBITDA margins) enjoy low competition due to regulations/complex manufacturing. Generic pharma business is litigation free with favorable tailwinds viz. rupee depreciation and abating US price erosion. Further, vertically integrated ingredients business is seeing strong demand and improved pricing. Revenue to register 16% CAGR, margin to expand 90bps by FY20E: JLS' pharma business is expected to grow at 18.8% CAGR over FY18-20E owing to Ruby-fill ramp-up, higher allergy product sales and strong demand for CMO services. Its commodity ingredient business is likely to grow at 12.4% CAGR over FY18-20E due to growth in acetyl and pyridine derivatives. Further, better product mix and improved prices to aid EBITDA margin expansion of ~70bps over the same period. Attractive valuations: JLS currently trades at 10.8x FY20E P/E and 6.0x FY20E EV/EBITDA. We value the company’s pharma and ingredients business at 9x and 6x of FY20E EV/EBITDA respectively to derive the target price of `851/share and recommend Buy. Financial summary Consolidated `cr FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Revenue 5,861 7,518 9,104 10,069 Growth (%) yoy 2.0 28.3 21.1 10.6 EBITDA% 23.0 20.2 20.8 20.9 Adj. PAT 575 725 896 1,017 Growth (%) yoy 48.6 26.2 23.6 13.5 P/E (x) 18.6 16.7 12.2 10.8 ROE (%) 16.7 17.8 18.2 17.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.6 9.2 7.1 6.0 ROCE (%) 15.2 16.7 19.5 19.6 Source: Company, IIFL Research, FY18 PAT adjusted for Rs91cr R&D write-off 30000 35000 40000 500 750 1000 1250 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jubilant Life Sensex

Transcript of Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd - content.indiainfoline.com

Page 1: Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd - content.indiainfoline.com

Premia Research

Jubilant Life Sciences LtdCMP: ` 689-year Target: `851

NSE

Sector Pharma

Recommendation BUY

Upside 24%

Stock Data

Sensex 34,734

52 Week h/l (`) 1,039 / 600

Market cap (`Cr) 11,953

BSE code 530019

NSE code JUBILANT

FV (`) 1

Div yield (%) 0.4

Shareholding Pattern

Dec-17 Mar-18 June-18

Promoters 54.0 50.7 50.7

DII+FII 26.1 29.0 29.3

Individuals 19.9 20.3 20.0

Source: www.bseindia.com

Share Price Trend

Prices as on 15/10/2018

Analyst– Shrikant Akolkar [email protected]

October 15, 2018

Jubilant Life Sciences (JLS), an integrated global pharma/life sciences

company, aims to grow its revenue with ramp-up of Ruby-fill,

monopoly in venom products, higher demand for lyophilization

services, and improving ingredients business. We forecast revenue

and adj. PAT CAGR of 15.7% and 18.4% respectively over FY18-20E,

with ~70bps EBITDA margin expansion. We recommend BUY with

target price of `851 (SOTP).

Diversified business with strong entry barriers: JLS has created a

diversified business with nine separate business verticals. Specialty

injectables (~30% EBITDA margins) enjoy low competition due to

regulations/complex manufacturing. Generic pharma business is

litigation free with favorable tailwinds viz. rupee depreciation and

abating US price erosion. Further, vertically integrated ingredients

business is seeing strong demand and improved pricing.

Revenue to register 16% CAGR, margin to expand 90bps by FY20E:

JLS' pharma business is expected to grow at 18.8% CAGR over FY18-20E

owing to Ruby-fill ramp-up, higher allergy product sales and strong

demand for CMO services. Its commodity ingredient business is likely

to grow at 12.4% CAGR over FY18-20E due to growth in acetyl and

pyridine derivatives. Further, better product mix and improved prices

to aid EBITDA margin expansion of ~70bps over the same period.

Attractive valuations: JLS currently trades at 10.8x FY20E P/E and 6.0x

FY20E EV/EBITDA. We value the company’s pharma and ingredients

business at 9x and 6x of FY20E EV/EBITDA respectively to derive the

target price of `851/share and recommend Buy.

Financial summary Consolidated `cr FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Revenue 5,861 7,518 9,104 10,069

Growth (%) yoy 2.0 28.3 21.1 10.6

EBITDA% 23.0 20.2 20.8 20.9

Adj. PAT 575 725 896 1,017

Growth (%) yoy 48.6 26.2 23.6 13.5

P/E (x) 18.6 16.7 12.2 10.8

ROE (%) 16.7 17.8 18.2 17.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.6 9.2 7.1 6.0

ROCE (%) 15.2 16.7 19.5 19.6 Source: Company, IIFL Research, FY18 PAT adjusted for Rs91cr R&D write-off

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Jubilant Life Sensex

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Balance sheet snapshot

` Cr FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Share Holders Funds 3,436 4,087 4,935 5,904

Total Liabilities 3,779 3,366 3,246 3,126

Sources of Funds 7,215 7,452 8,181 9,030

Fixed Assets 5,317 5,701 5,892 5,902

Other Assets 633 567 567 567

Net Current Assets 1,264 1,185 1,722 2,561

Application of Funds 7,215 7,452 8,181 9,030

Source: Company, IIFL Research

Company background

Jubilant Life Sciences (JLS) is an integrated global pharma and life

sciences company. It has a well-diversified product portfolio across

three segments i.e. Pharmaceuticals, Life Science Ingredients (LSI) and

Drug Discovery Solutions (DDS). The pharma segment is further divided

into Specialty Pharmaceutical (Radiopharma, Allergy-therapy products

and CMO of Sterile Injectables) and Generics (Solid Dosage

Formulations, API and India-branded pharma). LSI is further divided in

Specialty Intermediates, Nutritional Products and Life Science

Chemicals.

Exhibit 1: Revenue break-up (FY18)

Source: Company, IIFL Research

Radiopharma, 22.6%

CMO, 8.6%

Allergy Products, 3.7%

Solid Dosages, 10.6%

API, 7.4%

India Branded Pharma, 0.2%

Specialty Intermediates,

12.9%

Nutritional Products, 7.5%

Life Science Chemicals, 24.1%

DDS, 2.3%

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Source: Company, IIFL Research, Note – Company is expected to come with a public offer for JPL in Singapore

Exhibit 2: Jubilant Life Sciences – Key Business Assumptions

Segment Sub segment Key assumptions Contribution (%) CAGR (%) Margins

FY20E (%) FY18 FY20E FY16-18 FY18-20E

Specialty Injectables

Radiopharma

Triad acquisition to aid Ruby-fill distribution in US, Ruby-fill to generate $28mn revenue in FY20E.

22.6 29.0 54.8 30.8

28 CMO

Order book execution, higher lyophilization service demand

8.6 7.7 6.7 9.5

Allergy Products Monopoly in venom products due to exit of ALK-Abello, higher lyophilization demand

3.7 3.8 17.5 17.2

Generics Solid Dosages Abating pricing pressure in US 10.6 8.6 0.4 4.0

19 API

Capacity addition, Sartan shortage

7.4 6.8 -2.8 10.8

Life science ingredients

Specialty Intermediates

Pyridine capex in Q1FY19 to aid `50cr/year revenue, demand growth due to ban on polluting companies and reduction in anti-dumping duty in China

12.9 11.7 -5.6 9.9

16 Nutritional Products

Price hike, foray in animal nutrition business and normal vitamin business from H2FY19E

7.5 6.2 6.9 5.3

Life Science Chemicals

Commissioning of 45,000 tonne capacity by Q3FY19E, Ethanol price hike, higher demand

24.1 23.8 18.7 14.6

Source: IIFL Research

Exhibit 3: Company structure

Jubilant Life sciences

Pharma

JPL

Speciality injectables

Radiopharma

CMO of sterile injectables

Allergy therapy products

Generics

Solid dosages formulations

API

India branded pharma

LSI

Specialty Intermediates

Specialty Intermediates

Nutritional Products

Life Science Chemicals

DDS

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PHARMACEUTICAL SEGMENT

Radiopharma - an attractive market with high entry barriers

Radiopharmaceuticals are medicinal formulations which have

radioactivity and can be used as diagnostic and therapeutic agents.

Global radiopharma market is ~$4.8bn in 2018 of which 60% is

concentrated in North America (~$2.9bn). Radiopharma business

faces strong entry barriers as it uses nuclear material, which requires

more approvals than a normal USFDA approval. It also requires the

use of machines which are complimentary to the radioactive material.

Additionally, it also requires better control over supply chain. The

sector is dominated by GE Healthcare and Siemens, however, there

are small companies which work in specific areas of radiopharma. Due

to the manufacturing complexity, consolidation in radiopharma is the

preferred way for growth.

JLS has inorganically scaled-up radiopharma business

JLS has distinguished itself from generic companies by investing in

radiopharma business by acquiring (1) Draxis Specialty in 2008, and

(2) Triad Isotopes in September 2017. The company sells imaging

products (nuclear medicine used in disease diagnosis) such as MAA,

DTPA, I-131, Sestamibi, Ruby-fill, Exametazime, Gluceptate, etc. under

Draximage brand. JLS has several products in this line of business and

enjoys monopoly in most of them.

Exhibit 4: JLS enjoys leadership in several radiopharma products

Product Function Market

position

Macro aggregated albumin

(MAA) Lung imaging Market leader

Diethylene triamine

pentacetic acid (DTPA) Lung/Brain/Renal imaging Market leader

Sodium Iodide I-131 Thyroid imaging Market leader

HICON solution Thyroid imaging Market leader

Technetium TC-99m

Medronate(MDP-25) Bone imaging Market leader

Technetium 99m inj.

(Sestamibi)

Cardiac/Breast

Imaging Market leader

Exametazime Leukocyte/ Lung labeling Second supplier

Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Its foray in the radiopharma business has been extremely positive as it

enjoys ~30% EBITDA margins. Furthermore, radiopharma’s

contribution to JLS’ business has surged from 3% in FY10, to 22.6% in

FY18. Radiopharma is JLS’ fastest-growing business having organically

delivered 21.6% CAGR over FY15-18. We expect radiopharma to

organically grow at 14% CAGR over FY18-20E.

Triad acquisition complimentary to existing radiopharma business

JLS, in Q2FY18, acquired a US radiopharma distributor, Triad Isotopes

(Triad), and financed the deal using internal accruals. Triad is the

second largest distributor of radiopharma products in the US. It had 52

radio pharmacies across 35 US states and distributed products in

~1,700 hospitals by end of Q1FY19. Triad posted revenue of $200mn in

FY18 and EBITDA margins of ~10%. Further, on 12-month FY18 revenue

basis, Triad increased JLS’ radiopharma business by 2.4x in FY18.

Exhibit 5: Triad has given scale to growing radiopharma business

Source: Company, IIFL Research

Triad is a strategic fit for JLS and helps JLS by giving it a captive US front-

end access. JLS has several other products in the pipeline which can be

monetized through Triad’s expansive network. Triad can further help

monetize Ruby-fill, launched in FY17, and holds immense promise.

Exhibit 6: Triad can help monetize JLS’ radiopharma pipeline

Product Product information Current status

gMagnevist Gadolinium-based contrast agent

Not launched due to complains in Gadolinium

Moly-Fill Technetium generator In pipeline

I-131 MIBG Indicated in cancerous nerve tissue tumors in infants

In phase III trials

Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Radiopharma revenue Rs Cr Growth (yoy %)

Triad acquisition

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Ruby-fill is significantly large opportunity in radiopharma business

JLS’ most ambitious product i.e. Ruby-fill (Rubidium 82 generator)

received USFDA approval in October 2016 through 505(b) pathway.

Ruby-fill is used as an accessory for positron emission tomography

(PET) scans in Myocardial Perfusion Imaging.

The patent of this drug is held by Italian company Bracco Imaging under

brand name CardioGen-82. Post Ruby-fill’s approval, Bracco has filed a

lawsuit against JLS. The company’s management, however, strongly

believes that the product is not infringing upon the innovator’s patent,

stating that Ruby-fill is a computer controlled product, while Bracco’s

product is an analog product.

Ruby-fill’s target US market was worth ~$70mn in 2018 and has the

potential to grow up to $250mn over 2023E. Growing popularity of

using PET/CT scan for cardiac imaging will help Rubidium-based PET/CT

cardiac scans grow its market share in cardiac imaging. The company is

optimistic of Ruby-fill achieving ~50% share of the target market. A

single Ruby-fill installation in a hospital would generate ~$0.5mn

annual revenue. Thus, to generate $35mn revenue from Ruby-fill, JLS

needs to install its machine at 70 hospitals and Triad’s extensive

hospital network can be leveraged for the same. To achieve this, JLS

has merged the workforce of Triad with Ruby-fill sales force. Thus, we

expect Ruby-fill to achieve sales of $28mn by FY20E.

Exhibit 7: Ruby-fill (Rubidium Rb82 Generator)

Source: Company, IIFL Research

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CMO business gradually recovering after Warning Letter resolution

JLS entered contract manufacturing operations (CMO) business with

the acquisition of HollisterStier in 2007 and Draxis in 2008. It has two

facilities at Montreal (Canada) and Spokane (USA). The CMO business

develops and produces sterile injectables (including biologics) and non-

sterile (including dermatological cream and liquids) products.

Montreal plant had received a USFDA Warning Letter (WL) in February

2013, which was resolved in March 2014. Spokane facility also received

a WL in December 2013, which got resolved in June 2015. The dual

WLs, however, impacted JLS’ business in FY14 and FY15. While the

company’s business is recovering, it is yet to reach its pre-WL revenue

level. Further, in order to grow this business and its profitability, JLS is

filling ANDAs from these plants.

Exhibit 8: CMO business yet to reach pre-WL level

Source: Company, IIFL Research

CMO growth to be fueled by healthy demand, strong order book

Healthy demand for CMO services has aided JLS’ order book growth

from $534mn in Q1FY17 to $702mn in Q4FY18. Considering the full

utilization at its CMO capacities, JLS is planning to add a second shift in

H2FY19E, in order to increase revenue and improve margins due to

operating leverage. JLS also is increasing its lyophilization capacity

which is currently running at 100% utilization. The expanded capacity

is likely to be operational in March 2019 and expected to start

generating revenue from FY20E. The company is expecting its CMO

prices to improve due to lyophilization’s demand-supply mismatch. We

expect CMO business to grow at 9.5% CAGR over FY18-20E.

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Nutritional Products revenue Rs Cr Growth (yoy %)

WL Impact

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Limited competition/venom shortage to aid allergy business

JLS acquired HollisterStier in 2007 including its allergy therapy

business. In this business, JLS supplies bulk extracts of allergy

immunotherapy products like allergy antigens, skin-testing devices and

custom patient prescriptions. These products are used in diagnosis as

well as in treatments. JLS is one of the top players in the US allergy

product market aided by the strong HollisterStier brand.

JLS’ peers in allergy products are ALK-Abello, Allergy Lab, Allermed Lab,

Antigen Lab, Allergopharma, and Greer Lab. ALK-Abello (JLS’ sole

competitor in venom products) has exited the lyophilized venom

allergenic extracts (Pharmalgen) due to lower profitability. This makes

JLS the sole venom-product supplier in the US allergy market. JLS is

increasing its lyophilization capacity in the allergy therapy products to

capture the opportunity. The impact of this would be seen from

H2FY19E, as ALK would run out of venom product inventory by then.

JLS’ allergy business revenue has grown at 14.5% CAGR since FY15-18,

and it can achieve better growth in this business given ALK-Abello’s exit

from venom products. We expect JLS’ allergy business to grow at 17.2%

CAGR over FY18-20E.

Exhibit 9: Allergy business has grown at 14% CAGR over FY15-18

US allergy market is ~$2bn and is expected to grow in size

The US allergy therapy market size is estimated to be ~$2bn and it is

growing at 10% CAGR. Each year ~15% of the US population (~50mn

people) suffer from some kind of allergy such as from

food/drugs/insect stings, etc. Of this, it is believed 2-3mn patients

receive some treatment and this number is likely to rise due to

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environment changes, making people more susceptible to allergies.

Consequently, the US allergy market would expand to $2.4bn by

FY20E. The company has significant scope of growth in allergy

business as it currently has only ~2% market share, which results in

~$40mn revenue. We estimate JLS to gain ~20bps market share by

FY20E.

Generics business to benefit from US generics improvement

In its generics business, JLS operates in oral solid dosages (OSD)

business and API business. The OSD business focuses on US markets

(litigation-free products) and is backward integrated through API

business. JLS’ generics business is also present in Asia, Africa and

Europe. The API business, apart from supplying APIs to OSD, also

supplies APIs to global manufacturers. JLS, in FY18, completed capex

in its API facilities and it is also increasing its generic manufacturing

capacity which will be operational by H2FY19E.

Exhibit 10: Stagnated generic business due to low-risk strategy

Source: Company, IIFL Research

Owing to low risk strategy and competition/pricing pressure in US, the

generics business has stagnated over FY13-18. During this period, API

revenue grew at 1.8% CAGR, while OSD revenue declined at 0.7%

CAGR. However, the generics business is expected to improve due to

capacity addition/abating US pricing pressure. In API, JLS also

manufactures variety of sartans and may benefit from a global sartan

shortage following a recall by the largest sartan producer Zhejiang

Huahai Pharmaceuticals. JLS has also written off `91cr unviable R&D

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OSD (Rs cr) API (Rs Cr)

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products in FY18 (13% of FY18 PAT), which had dented FY18

profitability. We expect generic business to grow at 7% CAGR over

FY18-20E.

LIFE SCIENCE INGREDIENTS BUSINESS

Specialty intermediates on revival path after slump in FY14-17

JLS manufactures Pyridine, Picolines, Cyanopyridines, Piperidine and

their value added derivatives in its specialty intermediates business.

JLS is the second largest global player in pyridine. It is noteworthy that

this business is also forward integrated as the company’s Beta Picoline

and 3-Cyanopyridine is also used in Vitamin B3 manufacturing. This

business, however, has declined since FY15, due to China’s anti-

dumping tariffs.

Exhibit 11: China impact on specialty intermediates business

Source: Company, IIFL research

As per our estimates, JLS used to derive ~37% of its specialty

intermediates’ revenue from China in FY14. In November 2013,

Chinese government imposed anti-dumping tariffs of 24.6-57.4% on

Indian and Japanese pyridine manufacturers. This hit JLS’ business, as

revenue from China declined from `498cr in FY14 to `138cr in FY17.

Consequently, revenue from the specialty intermediates business

declined from `1,328cr in FY14 to `937cr in FY17.

In FY18, however, the pyridine business grew 4.3% yoy due to (1)

Chinese crackdown on polluting companies, (2) reduction of anti-

dumping tariff on pyridine in China in April 2017, and (3) China’s ban

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China impact

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on sale of Paraquat in FY18 (product is manufactured using Pyridine

and China had ~80% of global capacity). With the strengthening of

environmental laws in China, and commissioning of a multipurpose

pyridine plant in Q1FY19 (`50cr/year revenue potential), we expect

specialty intermediates business to grow at 10% CAGR over FY18-20E.

Nutritional products business coming back to normalcy

In the nutritional products business, the company manufactures

Vitamin B3 (Niacinamide/Niacin) and B4 (Choline Chloride).

Moreover, JLS is the second largest global player in Vitamin B3. Its

vitamin products are used in animal/human nutrition, pharmaceutical

industry, etc. Its Vitamin B3 business is fully backward integrated with

Beta Picoline and 3-Cyanopyridine being the feedstock raw material.

We believe the vitamin business is mostly commodity type in nature

with margins lower than the pharma business.

In Q1FY19, JLS’ vitamin business was impacted due to shortage of

Vitamin A and E supplies after a fire at BASF’s plant in Ludwigshafen.

Vitamin B forms a part of the premix, which includes vitamin A/E, and

with vitamin A/E supplies disrupted, JLS’ Vitamin B business also got

impacted due to lower sales. Ludwigshafen plant has commenced

vitamin production in July 2018, but due to inventory built-up, we

expect the vitamin business to normalize in H2FY19E.

Exhibit 12: Capex and price hikes vital for vitamin business

Source: Company, IIFL research

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JSL took a price hike in this business in FY18 and has indicated that it

will be taking another hike in FY19E. Thus, we expect the vitamin

business to do well aided by the price hikes as well as normalcy

returning to Vitamin A and E supply. The company recently entered

the human nutrition business (has better realizations and margins),

and has also secured a WHO approval for its facility. We expect

nutritional products business to grow at 5.3% CAGR over FY18-20E.

Life Science Chemicals (LSC) business witnessing firm prices

JLS manufactures acetyl range of products and is the fourth largest

company in acetic anhydride and seventh largest in ethyl acetate. The

company also uses these products for its own consumption. It

produces acetyl products from agro based feedstock i.e. molasses and

alcohol, and has a large storage feedstock capacity. Acetic anhydride

is used in cellulose acetate, pharma, agrochemical, aromatics, dyes

intermediate, wood acetylation, etc., while ethyl acetate is used by

pharmaceutical, packaging, coating and ink industries. The company

also supplies ethanol to domestic oil marketing companies and has

emerged the fourth largest supplier in the domestic Ethanol Blending

Programme.

Prices of life science chemicals are dependent on crude oil prices and

with the recent strength in crude oil, acetic acid prices, too, have

surged. Considering the strong demand scenario, the company has

Exhibit 13 : Acetic acid prices vs. crude oil Exhibit 14 :JLS’ LSC revenue-crude oil correlation

Source: Company, Bloomberg, IIFL Research

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Brent Crude Acetic acid

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

FY1

1

FY1

2

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

FY1

6

FY1

7

FY1

8

FY1

9E

FY2

0E

LSC revenue Rs cr. Growth (yoy %)

Growth due to capex + strong

crude prices

Revenue decline due to Weak crude prices

Firming up crude prices

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Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd

indicated that it’ll pass-on the prices, with three month lag, to its

customers, hence we expect H2FY19E to be better for this business.

Acetic anhydride capex coming at favourable time

Global demand for acetic anhydride is rising and hence, companies are

enjoying favorable pricing. JLS’ utilization at its existing plants has

been 100% for the past three years. However, it is expanding its acetic

anhydride capacity at this favorable time by building a new plant at

Bharuch. This will increase its capacity from 100,000 tonne currently

to 145,000 tonne and will commission by Q3FY19E. This plant has

annual revenue potential of `300cr upon full utilization. The company

expects the plant to achieve 100% utilization by FY21E. We are

expecting 14.6% CAGR in the LSC business over FY18-20E owing to (1)

capacity addition in acetic anhydride, (2) `2.85/lt increase in ethanol

prices by government, and (3) addition of new anhydrous alcohol

capacity at Gajraula, UP and Nira, Maharashtra.

Financial performance improves after foray in specialty pharma

Owing to its diversified business, acquisitions in low competition and

high growth space, and judicious capacity additions, JLS has managed

to deliver a good performance over the past few years. Its revenue

CAGR over the past 10-year, 5-year and 3-year is 11.7%, 7.8%, 8.9%

respectively, while EBITDA CAGR is 12.8%, 7.3%, 29.4% respectively.

Post the acquisition of HollisterStier and Draxis Specialty, JLS’ margin

profile improved significantly. In FY07, JLS’ gross margins were at 54%,

Exhibit 15: Revenue and growth trend Exhibit 16: EBITDA and margin trend

Source: Company, IIFL Research

58

26

57

49

58

61

75

18

91

04

10

06

9

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Net Sales (Rs cr)

70

2

12

47

13

45

15

18

18

89

21

20

12

2223

20 2121

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

EBITDA (Rs cr) Margin (%)

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Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd

which improved to 60% in FY08, and stood at 62% in FY18. Further,

FY18 gross margins could have been higher, but it was arrested by the

acquisition of low margin Triad Isotopes. On the EBITDA margin front,

specialty pharma improved its trajectory from 14.5% in FY07 to 20%

in FY18.

The 2014/15 WLs on its CMO facilities took a toll on the company’s

performance. However, from FY16 onwards, the company has

consistently seen 20%+ EBITDA margins. With improving profitability,

its free cash flow (FCF) generation has also improved and has

generated FCF of `800cr+/year for the past three consecutive years.

JLS’ debt-to-equity ratio touched 2.6x in FY09 after the acquisition of

HollisterStier and Draxis Specialty. Post that, due to strong

profitability, the debt-to-equity ratio reduced to 1.1x in FY14. In FY15,

the company raised debt again to acquire minority stake in its US

generics business (Cadista). Over FY15-18, the strong FCF generation

has helped JLS consistently reduce its debt from `4,793cr in FY15 to

`3,657cr in FY18. This has reduced its debt-to-equity ratio from 2x in

FY15 to 0.9x in FY18. Net debt-to-equity ratio in Q1FY19 stood at

comfortable level of ~0.7x.

Comfort despite FX debt, JPL IPO to aid debt reduction

JLS had total foreign exchange (FX) loans of $367mn by Q1FY19 with

4.75% interest cost. The revenue mix, tilted in favor of exports (~73%

of total revenue in Q1FY19) acts as a natural hedge against the FX

debt. Further, of this FX debt, $58.2mn is from International Finance

Corporation (IFC), which is due for repayment between June 2020 and

June 2021. As per repayment agreement, repayment will happen if JLS

fails to come with an IPO for Jubilant Pharma Limited (JPL) or if IFC

does not get an exit. JLS has already started IPO activities and after a

successful IPO launch, $58.2mn FX loan would get converted into

equity, thereby reducing the debt-to-equity ratio further.

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Outlook and valuation

We expect JLS to report revenue and adjusted PAT CAGR of 15.7% and

18.4% respectively over FY18-20E. We further project EBITDA margin

to expand ~70bps over FY18-20E due to better product mix, improved

realization in acetic anhydride products, and partially due to rupee

depreciation.

JLS currently trades at 10.8x FY20E P/E and 6.0x FY20E EV/EBITDA. We

value the company’s pharma and ingredients business at 9x and 6x of

FY20E EV/EBITDA respectively to derive the target price of `851/share

and recommend Buy.

Key risks

Ruby-fill ramp-up below expectations

Increase in Pyridine capacity in China or higher anti-dumping

duty on pyridine products

Higher competition and lower realizations in acetyl products

Regulatory risk in form of adverse observations by USFDA

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Disclaimer

Recommendation Parameters for Fundamental/Technical Reports: Buy – Absolute return of over +10% Accumulate – Absolute return between 0% to +10% Reduce – Absolute return between 0% to -10% Sell – Absolute return below -10% Please refer to http://www.indiainfoline.com/research/disclaimer for recommendation parameter, analyst disclaimer and other disclosures. IIFL Securities Limited (Formerly ‘India Infoline Limited’), CIN No.: U99999MH1996PLC132983, Corporate Office – IIFL Centre, Kamala City, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai – 400013 Tel: (91-22) 4249 9000 .Fax: (91-22) 40609049, Regd. Office – IIFL House, Sun Infotech Park, Road No. 16V, Plot No. B-23, MIDC, Thane Industrial Area, Wagle Estate, Thane – 400604 Tel: (91-22) 25806650. Fax: (91-22) 25806654 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.indiainfoline.com, Refer www.indiainfoline.com for detail of Associates. Stock Broker SEBI Regn.: INZ000164132, PMS SEBI Regn. No. INP000002213, IA SEBI Regn. No. INA000000623, SEBI RA Regn.:- INH000000248 For Research related queries, write at [email protected] For Sales and Account related information, write to customer care: [email protected] or call on 91-22 4007 1000