JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoringin Europe...JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020 3 1.2...
Transcript of JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoringin Europe...JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020 3 1.2...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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r
In most of Europe, the 2019/2020 winter was the
warmest or one of the warmest in our records starting in
1979. In most regions, mean daily temperature exceeded
the long-term-average by 2 °C to 4 °C. Even greater
temperature anomalies prevailed in eastern and northern
Europe. As a consequence of the mild winter, winter crops
in central, eastern and northern Europe are generally
advanced in development and in good condition.
Significant lack of precipitation is observed in the main
durum wheat producing regions (southern Italy, large
parts of Spain, Greece), as well as in large parts of
southern and eastern Romania, northern Bulgaria and in
the Maghreb region. In most of these regions, sufficient
rain is forecast to avoid imminent impact on crop yield
potentials. In contrast, important grain producing regions
in north-western Europe (France, Benelux countries,
Germany, United Kingdom) faced excessively wet
conditions. In these regions, winter crops often did not yet
establish well and necessary field operations were
hampered. Spring crops sowings are also delayed in these
regions and the more settled weather forecast for the
second half of March may not be sufficient to allow field
operations to fully catch up.
At this early stage in the season, the yield forecasts
reported are mostly based on historical trends or average
values.
Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
CEREALS* 5.35 5.57 5.47 +2.3 -1.8Total Wheat 5.54 5.79 5.66 +2.1 -2.2
soft wheat 5.77 6.01 5.88 +1.9 -2.1durum wheat 3.50 3.56 3.44 -1.7 -3.4
Winter barley 5.75 6.11 5.91 +2.8 -3.4Rye 3.81 3.87 3.84 +0.7 -0.9Triticale 4.03 4.04 4.14 +2.6 +2.4Rape and turnip rape 3.09 2.98 3.18 +3.0 +6.8Issued: 20 March 2020
* Only w inter cereals are included in the calculation
Crop
Yield t/ha
Content: 1. Agro-meteorological overview 2. Pastures in Europe – Regional monitoring 3. Country analysis 4. Crop yield forecasts 5. Atlas
Covers the period from 1 December 2019 until 10 March 2020
Draft version Issued: 23 March 2020
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 28 No 3
JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe
March 2020
Exceptionally mild winter and start to spring So far beneficial to winter crops in northern, central and eastern Europe
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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1 Agrometeorological overview
1.1 Areas of concern
The whole of Europe has experienced milder-than-usual
weather conditions since December, with mean average
temperatures 2°C to 4°C higher than usual in most
regions. However, since the beginning of December, the
strongest temperature anomalies were observed in
northern and eastern regions (the Baltic countries, eastern
Poland, Ukraine, Belarus and European Russia), where
average temperatures have mostly been 4°C to 6°C above
the long-term average (LTA).
Exceptionally dry conditions — rainfall deficit between
50% and 80% compared to the LTA for the period 1
December to 10 March — are observed in the main durum
wheat producing regions in southern Italy, large parts of
Spain, and Greece. Significant lack of precipitation is also
observed in large parts of southern and eastern Romania
and northern Bulgaria, as well as in the Maghreb region. In
most of the above-mentioned regions, the meteorological
forecast anticipates sufficient rain to partially restore soil
moisture levels and avoid impact on crop yield potentials,
but soil water conditions are expected to remain critical in
southern Italy.
By contrast, in north-western Europe, important grain-
producing regions (most of France, the Benelux countries,
a large part of Germany and the United Kingdom) faced
excessively wet conditions. Due to the long-lasting wet
conditions, crops did not establish well, and field works
(e.g. fertiliser applications, phytosanitary treatment, soil
preparations for spring sowing) were hampered. As a
consequence, spring crop sowings are delayed. The more
settled weather forecast for the second half of March may
not be sufficient to allow field operations to fully catch up,
meaning that part of the planned sowing of spring cereals
might not be accomplished.
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1.2 Agrometeorological review (1 February – 10 March) Warmer-than-usual conditions were observed in most
of Europe, with daily mean temperature anomalies from
+2°C to +4°C with respect to the long-term average (LTA),
and from +4°C to +6°C in eastern Europe and large areas
of the Scandinavian Peninsula. Higher mean temperature
anomalies, from +6°C to +8°C, were recorded in European
Russia and in some regions of eastern Europe. In large
areas of southern, western, and central Europe, as well as
in the UK, less than 7 cold days (with daily minimum
temperature below 0°C) were observed. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were
observed in the UK, and in some regions of south-eastern
Europe and Turkey. Daily mean temperature anomalies
were mainly less than 2°C. Normal temperature conditions
were recorded in Scotland and Ireland. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in most
of central, eastern and northern Europe. Cumulative
precipitation anomalies for the review period were above
140% of the LTA in a vast area across France, Germany,
the Benelux countries, Denmark, UK and Ireland. Similar
high anomalies were also recorded locally in other areas
of Europe, e.g. southern parts of Norway, Sweden and
Finland. Drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in most of
the Iberian Peninsula and in the Maghreb region, with
anomalies ranging from -100% to -80% compared to the
LTA. In large regions of Italy and Greece, observed
anomalies of cumulative precipitation were mainly
between -80% and -50% of the LTA. One of the most intense storms, named Dennis, was
observed on 15-16 February (one week after the storm
Ciara) and reached the exceptional minimum air pressure
of 920 hPa.
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1.3 Winter review (December, January, February) Substantially warmer-than-usual conditions
occurred in most of Europe, where the 2019/2020 winter
was the warmest or one of the warmest since 1979
(based on our gridded historical dataset). In most regions,
mean daily temperature anomalies ranged between 2°C
and 4°C above the long-term average (LTA). In eastern and
northern Europe, mean temperature anomalies mainly
ranged from +4°C to +6°C, while anomalies above +6°C
were observed in a large area of European Russia. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were recorded
in most of south-eastern Europe and Turkey, southern
Italy, large areas of the Iberian Peninsula, the UK and Ireland. Remarkable reductions in the number of cold days (i.e. days with daily minimum temperature below 0°C
were reduced by more than 50% compared to the LTA)
were observed in large parts of the Iberian Peninsula,
France and Italy, and in the northern Atlantic, North Sea
and Baltic Sea regions. Drier-than-usual conditions affected some regions in
southern Italy and the western side of the Po Valley,
Greece, Bulgaria and Romania, as well as in most parts of
the Maghreb region. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in large
parts of Europe. In central and eastern Europe, total
precipitation anomalies mainly ranged from 10% to 50%
(locally up to 80%) above the LTA. In northern Europe and
in the UK, precipitation anomalies were mainly between +50% and +80%. Precipitation anomalies above 140% of the LTA were recorded along the Mediterranean
coast of Spain, in an area of north-western Italy, and
locally in the UK, Norway and Turkey. In several of these
regions, the 2019/2020 winter was among the wettest
since 1979 (based on our gridded dataset). Several storms hit Europe between December and
February, causing heavy precipitation, severe wind gusts,
and floods in some of the affected regions. Storm Dennis,
which impacted the UK on 15-16 February, just one week
after Storm Ciara, reached the exceptional minimum air
pressure of 920 hPa..
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1.4 Winter hardening and frost-kill analysis During the past month, the de-hardening of winter cereals
has progressed considerably in most of Europe. Our model
simulations, based on meteorological observations up to
10 March, indicate that winter cereals are not hardened or
only slightly hardened1 in western, southern and central
Europe, as well as in the British Isles, Denmark, southern
Sweden, coastal areas of the Baltic countries, the Balkan
Peninsula, Romania, western Turkey, Ukraine and south-
western Russia. Winter crops still present partial or
advanced hardening in eastern parts of the Baltic
countries, Belarus, and western parts of the Central and
Volga okrugs in European Russia. Full or almost full
hardening is generally being maintained in the
Scandinavian Peninsula (except southern Sweden),
eastern Turkey and large parts of northern and eastern
European Russia.
Our frost-kill model suggests no relevant additional
damage since 1 February.
On the basis of the latest medium-range weather forecast
[until 26 March], no significant further frost kill damage is
expected. A cold air intrusion will lead to an increase in
frost events. However, minimum air temperatures are
expected to remain mostly around or above -6⁰C in the
main agricultural regions, which is insufficient to cause
further frost kill damage to winter cereals.
11 Hardening is a bio-physiological process of winter cereals that occurs when, in response to cold conditions, the crops transform
cellular starch to sugar thus gaining low-temperature tolerance to survive the harsh winter conditions.
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1.5 Weather forecast (20 – 26 March) Weather conditions during the forecast period will be mainly determined by a cold air intrusion induced by a trough
extending from European Russia towards the central Mediterranean. This large-scale atmospheric pattern will evolve
into a stationary cyclonic disturbance centred over Italy in the middle of the week.
Colder-than-usual conditions are expected in a large
region mainly extending from Belgium to Poland, and from
northern Germany to southern Italy. Daily mean
temperature anomalies between -4°C and -2°C with
respect to the LTA are forecast. In central and eastern
Europe, daily minimum temperatures below 0°C are
expected for almost the entire forecast period, with values
that could reach between -6°C and -4°C. Slightly colder-than-usual conditions are forecast in
large parts of France, Spain and England. Daily mean
temperature anomalies between -2°C and -0.5°C are
expected. One to four cold days (with daily minimum
temperatures below 0°C) are forecast in these areas. In
France, minimum temperatures will reach values between
-4°C and -2°C during the analysis period. Dry conditions, with less than 5 mm of cumulative
precipitation, are expected in large regions of Europe,
mainly located along the northern coastline as well as in
the southern part of the UK. Wet conditions, with precipitation of 40 mm to 60 mm
during the forecast period (locally above 60 mm), are
forecast in Portugal, southern Spain and Italy, and in a
large region between Romania and Bulgaria. The long-range weather forecast for April, May and
June indicates that warmer-than-usual conditions are
likely (more likely than not in western Europe) to occur in
most of Europe.
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2 Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring
Advanced start to the season in most of the EU • Higher-than-usual photosynthetic activity and biomass gains are observed in most EU regions, due to a warm and
dry winter that changed to a wet February and early March, especially in northern and western Europe.
• Exceptions are noted for Greece, southern Italy and parts of the central western Iberian Peninsula, where dry
conditions are contributing to a rainfall deficit observed since the start of winter. This may cause concern if rain
does not return by the end of March. For the southern Iberian Peninsula, this is reflected in slightly below-average
biomass cumulates.
Below-average fAPAR values, suggesting below-average biomass accumulation, in the north of Ireland are attributed to
cloud cover (processing bias), as the conditions reported locally have been favourable for biomass growth.
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3 Country headlines
3.1 European Union
France Negative outlook for winter crops
This winter was exceptionally wet and mild, with
cumulative temperatures (T > 0°C) close to those in 2007
and 2016, and above-average rainfall in December,
February and the first half of March, following a rainfall
surplus in October and November.
After an unfavourable start to the season in autumn (dry
soils for sowing and establishment of winter rapeseed;
overly wet for winter wheat), weather conditions during
winter and early spring have also been unfavourable. On
heavy soils, waterlogging caused further delay to the
phenological development of crops, weakened the
development of roots, and lowered biomass accumulation.
The exceptionally abundant rainfall contributed to
substantial nitrogen leaching, thus lowering soil nitrogen
levels. Another negative aspect of the rainy weather is
that it has hampered fertilisation, as well as applications
of pesticide. The wet and mild weather is also favourable
to the spread of pests and diseases. Although it is too
early to notice the presence of diseases and their potential
impacts, high disease pressure is expected this spring.
The sowing of spring cereals, and particularly spring
barley, has also been delayed due to the overly wet
weather. The area sown to spring cereals is likely to
diminish, thus not compensating for the reduced areas of
winter wheat and winter rapeseed. As a consequence, a
relatively large share of arable land area will be sown to
summer crops, such as maize and sunflower.
Germany Mild winter and overly wet February
After a relatively dry December, followed by even drier
conditions in January, concerns arose that the water-
depleted soils will lead to difficult conditions in spring,
when crop water requirements will increase. However, at
the beginning of February the rainfall pattern changed
dramatically, resulting in an overly wet February and
beginning of March. The highest intensity was in the west,
with somewhat lesser amounts of precipitation towards
the east. Consequently, the winter month period (Dec-Jan-
Feb) as a whole presents a precipitation surplus in most
regions. Towards the end of February, the optimal window
for spring sowings starts to open; however, soils will need
to dry first to guarantee field accessibility, so delay is
probable.
With the exception of a few days, average temperatures
fluctuated above the LTA during the review period, and the number of cold days (with Tmin < 0⁰C) has been
exceptionally low. However, the period was cold enough
for vernalisation, although soils did not freeze sufficiently
to lower pest and disease pressure. Crops are generally
advanced, and our yield forecasts are currently based on
historical trends or long-term average values.
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Poland Exceptionally mild winter advanced winter crop development and spring field work
The review period was the warmest in our records (since
1979) in most of the country, with mean daily
temperature anomalies around +3.5°C. Below-average
precipitation in December and January deteriorated soil
water deficits, especially in Lodzkie, Mazowieckie, and
Podlaskie regions; however, abundant rainfall in February
and at the beginning of March improved soil water
conditions, which are now adequate for crop development.
Cumulative radiation was above the LTA.
Generally, winter cereals are in good condition after the
relatively warm winter without prolonged cold spells.
Development of winter crops is advanced compared to an
average year (winter cereals are completing tillering or
entering stem elongation phase, while rapeseed has
started stem elongation). The mild winter and recent rains
have resulted in increased pressure from fungal diseases,
observed in many fields. Spring field work and the sowing
of spring crops began approximately two weeks earlier
than usual (due to warm conditions), and are currently
ongoing.
Ireland Continuous rain delays field activities
Thermal conditions during winter have been slightly
warmer than usual. The most remarkable feature of this
period was the persistent rain, with only a few
interruptions. Rainfall was particularly abundant in
February, which became the second wettest February in
our 40-year records.
Due to the wet soil conditions, the majority of winter
cereals have not yet received the recommended
applications of herbicide and fertiliser. Moreover, in fields
that had already experienced difficulties due to overly wet
conditions around sowing, winter cereals established
poorly, with empty patches. In some areas, replanting will
be needed. Planting of spring cereals started at the
beginning of February, but was halted due to unfavourably
wet soil conditions across the country.
Despite this unfavourable start to the season, good yields
are still possible if conditions improve in the coming
weeks. At this early stage in the season, the forecasts for
all crops are still based on the historical trend, slightly
above the 5-year average.
Spain and Portugal Rainfall deficit
Considering the review period as a whole, rainfall in the
eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula (Aragon, Catalonia,
Comunidad Valenciana and Murcia) was around or above
the LTA, but concentrated in one or a few major storm
events. In terms of water supply for rainfed cropland, this
translates into a deficit as much of the rainfall will have
run off, while also degrading the soil and plant cover. In
north-western regions (e.g. Norte, Galicia, Asturias),
rainfall was abundant and uniformly distributed. In the
remaining part of the Peninsula (see figure Valladolid), a
persistently high rainfall deficit is observed since
December, similar to 2019.
Temperatures have predominantly been warmer than
usual throughout the Peninsula, with the most distinct
thermal anomalies in February.
Winter crops and spring cereals are currently in fair
condition and well advanced in development, due to the
warm winter conditions. High yields are still possible as
rainfall seems to be slowly returning, given the most
recent rain (after 10 March) and forecast rain.
Spain’s accumulated water reserves currently amount to
about 58% of its reservoir capacity, which is 10
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percentage points lower than the 10-year average
(source: www.embalses.net) and similar to 2019.
Italy Dry winter threats durum wheat yields
In December and January, northern and central Italian
regions experienced average temperature anomalies
between 2°C and 4°C above the LTA. February was even
warmer, with average temperatures anomalies between
+4°C and +6°C. In these regions, the overly wet November
and December was followed by a dry January and
February. Since the beginning of March, beneficial rainfall
has been restoring the soil moisture needed for growth of
winter cereals (mostly soft wheat and winter barley).
In southern regions and Sicilia, winter temperature
anomalies were less pronounced (< 2°C above the LTA)
but the rainfall deficit was much more significant,
especially in the main durum wheat areas (up to 80%
below the LTA in Puglia, Basilicata and Sicilia). There is
already a slowdown in crop biomass accumulation (winter
barley and durum wheat), and rain is urgently needed to
avoid a significant reduction in yield potential.
Hungary Adequate wintering, but increased pest pressure
During our review period (1 December – 10 March), above-
average temperatures dominated, except in January which
presented close-to-average thermal conditions. This
winter season was among the warmest in our records
(since 1979) with a positive thermal anomaly of 3°C
compared to the LTA. A rainy November was followed by
a drier-than-usual December and January, but from early
February rainfall again became more frequent and
abundant. For the review period as a whole, precipitation
totals are close to the LTA in southern and eastern regions,
while central and northern areas present 10-30% surplus.
Mild winter temperatures supported successful wintering
and accelerated crop development but led to increased
pest pressure for this spring.
Soil moisture conditions were adequate during this winter
and the replenishment of soil water reserves is favourable
for the re-growth of winter crops. This is reflected in
above-average leaf area expansion, as confirmed by
remote sensing.
Romania Mild winter, but dry in south-eastern regions
Romania experienced one of the mildest winters on our
records (since 1979). Daily temperatures mostly
fluctuated well above the LTA during the review period (1
December – 10 March), resulting in a positive thermal
anomaly of 2°C to 4.5°C. The most marked temperature
anomalies occurred in the north-eastern and eastern
agricultural regions.
In December and January, the north-western half of
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Romania received only 55-85% of the usual precipitation.
Meanwhile, the south-eastern half of the country suffered
from severe precipitation deficit, with only 10-40 mm
(15-50% of the average) recorded. In early February,
abundant rainfall arrived, improving the situation;
however, some eastern areas remain drier than usual. The
soil moisture recharge of lower soil layers has been mostly
suboptimal, but upper soil layers have been sufficiently
moist to meet the water demands of winter crops, except
in Sud-Est region. Winter crops are in seasonal shape; the
dormancy period ended earlier than usual and there is
advanced crop development.
Bulgaria Advanced crop development, but rainfall deficit along the Black Sea coast
Since early December, significantly warmer-than-usual
weather conditions have prevailed in Bulgaria. This has
resulted in a positive thermal anomaly between 1°C and
4.5°C for the period as a whole. In the main agricultural
regions, in northern and eastern parts of the country, the temperature sum (Tbase = 0°C) exceeds the LTA by 200-
330°Cd, which indicates substantially advanced crop
phenology.
After abundant rainfall in November, there was only
scarce precipitation (15-35 mm) in December and
January in northern and eastern Bulgaria (20-50% of the
LTA), making this 2-month period the driest or second
driest in our records (since 1979). The situation improved
in February. However, eastern coastal regions still
experienced below-average rainfall (30-45 mm), while
50-150 mm rainfall was recorded elsewhere (from early
February until mid-March).
As a consequence, soil moisture levels have been
persistently below average in eastern Bulgaria
(Severoiztochen and Yugoiztochen). In these regions, the
replenishment of deeper soil layers has also been
deficient, which means that above-average rainfall will be
required in the coming months to sustain adequate crop
growth this season. Currently, biomass accumulation is
close to or above normal, primarily thanks to the mild
winter temperatures which allowed advanced crop
development.
Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia Mild winter leading to early spring re-growth
The winter has been warmer than usual, with temperature
anomalies mainly between 2⁰C and 4⁰C above the LTA.
Maximum temperatures in December and January often
exceeded 15⁰C. Hardening of winter crops has therefore
been weak during the major part of winter; however, in the
absence of extremely low temperatures, frost kill has been
practically absent. Rainfall cumulates have been above
average in Slovakia, western Czechia and most of Austria;
meanwhile, south-eastern Austria and north-western
Czechia have recorded a precipitation deficit. Warmer-
than-usual weather is promoting early spring re-growth,
which might expose winter crops — and especially fruit
trees — to damaging spring frost events. Mild winter
conditions may contribute to pest and disease outbreaks.
As it is too early in the season to reliably predict final crop
yields, our current forecasts are based on long-term trend
values.
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Denmark and Sweden Positive impact of warm winter weakened by excessive rain
The most striking meteorological features of this review
period are that it was among the warmest recorded in the
JRC MARS database for both Sweden and Denmark, and a
distinct rain surplus due to an episode of abundant, almost
continuous rainfall around mid-February. These high
rainfall levels reinforced a positive rainfall anomaly
observed since last summer, which was particularly
substantial in the western regions of Denmark and
Sweden. From 1 August to 10 March, cumulative rainfall
was 200mm above the LTA in Midtjylland and Västsverige.
In these regions, the rainy weather has been unfavourable
for winter crops. Plant nutrients are leached and high
groundwater levels are hampering the development of
roots due to waterlogging. Conditions are more favourable
in the eastern regions of both countries: cumulative
rainfall was closer to the average, thus allowing winter
crops to benefit from the exceptionally warm winter,
favouring an early regrowth and biomass accumulation.
Spring crops sowings are delayed in the western regions
of both countries, which could eventually result in a
reduction of the area sown to spring barley.
Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Unusually warm winter
This review period (1 December – 10 March) was
characterised by above-average temperatures in all four
countries, especially in Lithuania where the period was the
warmest on our records (for the last 40 years). The highest
deviations from the LTA were recorded in Lithuania in mid-
February (mean daily average temperature 11°C above
the LTA).
Precipitation for the period as a whole was close to
average in most parts of the Baltic countries, but has
exceeded the average since February. In Finland, the
review period as a whole was unusually wet; in some
areas (Etelä-Suomi) the wettest for the last 40 years.
Crops are in good condition following the mild winter.
However, mild temperatures may promote early re-
growth, with an increased risk of frost damage in the
following months. Our current yield forecasts are based
on historical trends and averages. It is still too early for
the sowing of spring crops.
Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg Field operations delayed after warm and wet winter
A relatively wet December and dry January were followed
by the wettest February and beginning of March in our
records (since 1979), resulting in an overall rainfall
surplus of 50-100 mm (compared to the LTA) for the
review period as a whole. Temperatures were almost
constantly above the LTA, similar to 2007, 2014 and
2016. Frost events were mild and sparse. Radiation was
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well below average, due to the cloudy/rainy conditions that
prevailed from the beginning of February.
Winter cereals that were sown on time benefited from the
warm weather and are generally in good condition and
advanced in development. However, crops that were sown
late (due to overly wet autumn conditions) are still lagging
behind and often present gappy stands.
Field operations are well behind, due to the wet soil
conditions. Even with the prospect of more settled weather
in the second half of March, part of the spring cereals may
not be sown within the optimal window and the current
delays could even have knock-on effects on the timing of
sugar beet sowing.
Greece and Cyprus Positive outlook for winter crops in Greece
From December to early March, Greece saw low
precipitation cumulates in central areas (e.g. Grevena,
Karditsa and Phthiotis) and in the region of Peloponnese.
Average to above-average cumulates prevailed in Aegean
and Ionian areas. Rainfall events mainly occurred in the
first half of December and the beginning of March. Temperature cumulates (Tbase = 0°C) have been above
the LTA throughout Greece, particularly in southern
regions. Winter crop growing conditions in Greece were
favoured by the abundant soil water supply during the
autumn season, and by the warm temperatures that
accompanied crop tillering and initial vegetative stages.
Hence, despite the dry winter, remote sensing indicators
clearly show that biomass accumulation levels are above
average and above the previous season. Weather
conditions in Cyprus were mainly characterised by above-
average precipitation and warmer-than-average
temperatures. Crop growth simulations suggest below-
average biomass formation. However, there is still
significant time for crops to recover.
Slovenia and Croatia Exceptionally mild winter advanced winter crop development and spring field work
Both countries have seen mild winter conditions, with
temperatures generally between 2⁰C and 4⁰C above the
seasonal values. Precipitation has been around average in
eastern Slovenia and in the central part of the coastal
region of Croatia. Above-average precipitation was
recorded in western Slovenia and Istria, while a
precipitation deficit prevailed in eastern Croatia and
southern Dalmatia, where recorded cumulates were
regionally between 30% and 50% of the LTA. Although
there was weak hardening of winter cereals, frost kill has
been very limited or absent. However, the early re-growth
of winter crops may expose them to frost risk later in the
spring. The precipitation deficit recorded so far in Croatia
has had a limited effect on winter crops. As it is still too
early in the season to reliably predict crop yields, our
current forecast figures are based on long-term trends.
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3.2 United Kingdom
United Kingdom Excessive rainfall delays field work
This meteorological winter and early spring (1 December
– 10 March) were characterised by above-average
temperatures, particularly in the south-eastern parts of
Great Britain, with the highest deviations from the LTA in
mid-February in the east of England (8°C above the LTA).
Precipitation was also well above average, especially in
western areas, where in many parts cumulative rainfall
over the review period exceeded the LTA by 70%. In
general, the period was one of the wettest on our 40-year
records.
The sowing of spring crops, and other field operations such
as the application of fertilisers and pesticides, have been
delayed. In general, winter cereals came through the
winter in good condition, but some late-sown fields need
to be re-sown with spring crops.
The continuous rain has made it very difficult to make an
early start to the cultivation of spring cereals. Wet soil
conditions have also halted ground preparation for early
potato planting across the country.
As it is still very early in the season, the forecasts for all
crops are based on the historical trend
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3.3 Black Sea Area
Ukraine High yield expectations after an exceptionally mild winter
This winter was the warmest in our database, with mean
average temperatures even well above the last record
(winter 2015/2016). This exceptional weather continued
during the first dekad of March, with temperatures 8°C
above the seasonal average.
Rainfall was close to the LTA in most regions, but a rainfall
deficit was recorded in Odes’ka. The extent of the snow
cover was exceptionally reduced and non-persistent this
winter. Substantial snowfall was only recorded at the
beginning of February, before a short cold snap. The snow
melted quickly during the second half of February, as
temperatures returned to above-seasonal levels.
Winter crops are currently in good condition, have not been
damaged by frost, and started regrowth early. Sowing of
spring cereals has already started in the southern oblasts
and is advancing at a fast pace. The early start to spring
is particularly beneficial for winter and spring crops, and
yield expectations are currently high, as the only negative
observation is slightly low superficial soil moisture in
Odes’ka. Considering the steep increase in fertiliser use
since 2000, yield expectations are high. However, it is
noted that in all the main producing oblasts, the area sown
to winter crops — and more particularly winter wheat —
has decreased by 10-15% compared to last year.
Turkey Delayed crop development in Anatolia
In Anatolian regions (e.g. Konya, Kaysery), sowings of
winter cereals were delayed by up to 30 days due to a dry
autumn. In December, rainfall restored soil moisture,
allowing sowing and grain germination. In January, crop
emergence and first leaf development were slowed down
by winter dormancy, and vernalisation occurred under
below-average temperatures (2°C below the LTA). At the
moment of analysis, crop development has not yet re-
started.
In south-eastern regions, weather conditions during the
winter months proved favourable, with abundant
precipitation and slight positive temperature anomalies (<
2°C above the LTA). Crop growth is fair and biomass
accumulation is now around average (e.g. in Sanliurfa).
Only the Gaziantep region presents a development delay,
due to late sowing as a result of strong rain events at the
beginning of December.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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3.4 European Russia and Belarus
European Russia Adequate wintering thanks to extremely mild weather
European Russia experienced an unprecedented mild
winter. Daily mean temperatures almost constantly
exceeded the LTA during the review period (1 December –
10 March), resulting in a positive thermal anomaly of 3.0-
8.5°C. A brief cold spell around 10 February was not
harmful to dormant winter crops. The mild temperatures
supported early re-greening of winter cereals in south-
western regions, and the spring sowing campaign could
start 1-2 weeks earlier than usual.
Precipitation persistently exceeded the average in
northern and eastern parts of Russia. In central and south-
western regions, precipitation was below average in
December, around average in January, and above average
in February. Considering the review period as whole, only
areas along the Caucasus (e.g. Stavropolsky kray)
remained drier than usual, with a 20-50% rainfall deficit
compared to the LTA.
Winter cereals experienced successful wintering, thanks to
the adequate soil moisture conditions and mild
temperatures. Slight frost-kill events in late November
may have caused some damage in the Central and Volga
okrugs, but without significantly affecting yield potentials.
Winter cereals are in good shape and crop status is
promising.
Belarus Record high temperatures resulted in advanced development of winter crops
The review period was the warmest on record (since
1979), with mean daily temperature anomalies reaching
+6°C to +8°C in north-eastern regions (of Vitebs and
Mogilev), and +4°C to +6°C in the rest of the country. A
brief cold spell occurred during the first dekad of February,
with no negative impact on winter crops. Cumulative
precipitation was around the LTA for most of the country,
with the exception of north-eastern regions (above the
LTA), and south-eastern regions (below the LTA).
The very mild winter resulted in accelerated development
of winter crops, which are generally in good condition.
However, the mild weather could result in increased
pressure from pests and diseases, especially in areas with
a surplus of precipitation. Field works commenced ahead
of the usual time and are currently in full swing. Sowing
of spring crops is about to begin.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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3.5 Maghreb
Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia Drought conditions, with crops most vulnerable in central Morocco and western Algeria
In Morocco, persistent dry conditions are observed since
the beginning of December. Drought has been hampering
wheat and barley cultivation since the emergence stage.
The most impacted regions are Marrakech-Safi,
Casablanca-Settat and Oriental. These regions are
currently experiencing dry conditions, after above-average
rainfall cumulates in autumn and a last rainfall event in
the second dekad of January. Remote sensing indicators
confirm low levels of biomass formation. Despite a timely onset of autumn rainfall in Algeria,
winter rain cumulates are in deficit throughout the
country. Agrometeorological conditions are reflected in
differentiated crop growth responses. Western regions
(e.g. Mascara, Sidi Bel Abbes, and Tiaret) are moderately
underperforming in growth, due to less autumn rain and a
lack of rainy events since February. We are monitoring the
situation closely, as western districts are responsible for
almost 45% of soft wheat and 35% of barley production.
Compared with western regions, eastern regions (e.g.
Bouira, Mila, Guelma) received higher rates of rainfall in
autumn and March, and are so far showing above-average
crop productivity. In Tunisia, the interpretation of remote sensing and crop
modelling variables suggests that biomass accumulation
and crop conditions are generally close to or slightly above
long-term levels. The only regions where the effects of
Maghreb’s general drought conditions can be identified
are Siliana and Kairouan, where vegetative growth (in
particular barley) is underperforming with respect to
average values.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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4 Crop yield forecasts 4.1 EU countries and United Kingdom
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
EU 5.54 5.79 5.66 +2.1 -2.2AT 5.25 4.72 5.17 -1.5 +10BE 8.61 9.94 9.07 +5.3 -8.8BG 4.93 5.14 4.80 -2.6 -6.6CY - - - - -CZ 5.92 5.67 6.04 +1.9 +6.4DE 7.50 7.39 7.65 +2.0 +3.4DK 7.67 8.25 7.52 -2.0 -8.9EE 3.97 5.07 3.88 -2.4 -24ES 3.14 3.04 3.04 -3.0 +0.0FI 3.91 4.56 3.99 +2.2 -12FR 6.99 7.84 7.39 +5.7 -5.8GR 2.62 2.65 2.65 +0.9 -0.3HR 5.54 5.53 5.56 +0.4 +0.6HU 5.28 5.28 5.03 -4.7 -4.8IE 9.84 9.99 9.94 +1.0 -0.5IT 3.96 3.87 3.97 +0.1 +2.6LT 4.48 4.29 4.82 +7.4 +12LU 5.78 6.01 6.10 +5.6 +1.5LV 4.49 4.81 4.59 +2.2 -4.6MT - - - - -NL 9.01 10.01 9.09 +0.9 -9.2PL 4.49 4.39 4.71 +4.9 +7.2PT 2.19 2.23 2.16 -1.7 -3.3RO 4.44 4.80 4.75 +7.0 -1.0SE 6.55 7.40 6.55 +0.0 -12SI 4.99 5.23 5.12 +2.6 -2.0SK 5.26 5.36 5.52 +4.9 +3.0
UK 8.34 8.94 8.10 -2.9 -9.4
Country
TOTAL WHEAT (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
EU 5.77 6.01 5.88 +1.9 -2.1AT 5.30 4.71 5.22 -1.7 +11BE 8.61 9.94 9.07 +5.3 -8.8BG 4.93 5.14 4.80 -2.6 -6.6CY - - - - -CZ 5.92 5.67 6.04 +1.9 +6.4DE 7.52 7.42 7.67 +2.0 +3.4DK 7.67 8.25 7.52 -2.0 -8.9EE 3.97 5.07 3.88 -2.4 -24ES 3.23 3.09 3.12 -3.4 +0.9FI 3.91 4.56 3.99 +2.2 -12FR 7.11 7.92 7.48 +5.3 -5.5GR 2.70 2.77 2.62 -2.9 -5.3HR 5.54 5.53 5.56 +0.4 +0.6HU 5.29 5.32 5.04 -4.8 -5.3IE 9.84 9.99 9.94 +1.0 -0.5IT 5.41 5.13 5.40 -0.2 +5.3LT 4.48 4.29 4.82 +7.4 +12LU 5.78 6.01 6.10 +5.6 +1.5LV 4.49 4.81 4.59 +2.2 -4.6MT - - - - -NL 9.01 10.01 9.09 +0.9 -9.2PL 4.49 4.39 4.71 +4.9 +7.2PT 2.19 2.23 2.16 -1.7 -3.3RO 4.44 4.80 4.75 +7.0 -1.0SE 6.55 7.40 6.55 +0.0 -12SI 4.99 5.23 5.12 +2.6 -2.0SK 5.34 5.49 5.67 +6.1 +3.3
UK 8.34 8.94 8.10 -2.9 -9.4
Country
SOFT WHEAT (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
EU 3.50 3.56 3.44 -1.7 -3.4AT 4.58 4.83 4.53 -1.1 -6.1BE - - - - -BG - - - - -CY - - - - -CZ - - - - -DE 5.06 4.92 5.42 +7.0 +10DK - - - - -EE - - - - -ES 2.73 2.76 2.60 -4.6 -5.7FI - - - - -FR 5.29 6.28 5.40 +2.1 -14GR 2.59 2.61 2.66 +2.4 +1.7HR - - - - -HU 4.71 4.34 4.70 -0.3 +8.2IE - - - - -IT 3.37 3.32 3.34 -1.0 +0.6LT - - - - -LU - - - - -LV - - - - -MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL - - - - -PT - - - - -RO - - - - -SE - - - - -SI - - - - -SK 4.53 4.29 4.31 -4.9 +0.5
UK - - - - -
Country
DURUM WHEAT (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
EU 5.75 6.11 5.91 +2.8 -3.4AT 6.34 6.74 6.38 +0.5 -5.4BE 8.15 9.00 8.95 +9.9 -0.5BG 4.40 4.90 4.63 +5.1 -5.5CY 1.62 2.70 1.41 -13 -48CZ 5.67 5.92 5.56 -1.9 -6.0DE 7.09 7.22 7.19 +1.4 -0.5DK 6.48 7.09 6.30 -2.7 -11EE - - - - -ES 2.41 2.31 2.79 +16 +21FI - - - - -FR 6.54 7.09 6.80 +4.0 -4.2GR 2.60 2.71 2.81 +7.8 +3.7HR 4.79 5.18 4.92 +2.9 -5.0HU 5.28 5.65 5.49 +4.0 -2.8IE 9.25 9.42 9.46 +2.3 +0.4IT 4.00 4.05 4.01 +0.3 -1.0LT 3.90 3.89 3.99 +2.2 +2.6LU - - - - -LV - - - - -MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL 4.26 4.31 4.42 +3.8 +2.5PT 2.39 2.64 2.38 -0.4 -10RO 4.48 4.91 4.72 +5.5 -3.8SE 5.91 6.85 5.99 +1.4 -13SI 4.51 4.20 4.49 -0.5 +7.0SK 5.21 5.32 5.09 -2.4 -4.4
UK 7.16 7.84 7.13 -0.5 -9.1
Country
WINTER BARLEY (t/ha)
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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Notes:
- Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10000 ha
per country with sufficently long and coherent yield
time series
- EU aggregate after 01/02/2020 is reported
Sources:
- 2015-2020 data come from DG AGRICULTURE short
term Outlook data (dated February 2020, received on
02/03/2020), EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update:
25/02/2020) and EES (last update: 15/11/2017)
- 2020 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD
FORECASTING SYSTEM (output up to 10/03/2020)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
EU 3.81 3.87 3.84 +0.7 -0.9AT 4.43 4.60 4.68 +5.6 +1.7BE - - - - -BG - - - - -CY - - - - -CZ 4.90 4.96 4.99 +1.7 +0.5DE 5.30 5.24 5.29 -0.1 +1.0DK 5.91 6.19 5.99 +1.4 -3.2EE 3.61 4.12 3.61 -0.2 -13ES 2.10 1.82 2.01 -4.6 +10FI 3.78 4.79 3.69 -2.2 -23FR 4.52 4.77 4.63 +2.5 -3.0GR 1.72 1.86 1.92 +12 +3.0HR - - - - -HU 3.14 3.37 3.33 +6.0 -1.3IE - - - - -IT - - - - -LT 2.51 2.63 2.45 -2.5 -7.0LU - - - - -LV 4.14 4.43 4.02 -3.1 -9.4MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL 2.77 2.72 2.89 +4.2 +6.1PT 0.95 1.06 1.02 +7.6 -3.6RO 2.76 3.08 2.74 -0.7 -11SE 6.17 6.76 6.25 +1.3 -7.5SI - - - - -SK 3.44 3.44 3.59 +4.5 +4
UK 2.22 2.38 2.85 +29 +20
Country
RYE (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
EU 4.03 4.04 4.14 +2.6 +2.4AT 5.24 4.91 5.38 +2.6 +9.4BE - - - - -BG 2.96 2.84 3.00 +1.4 +5.6CY - - - - -CZ 4.78 4.85 4.60 -3.7 -5.1DE 6.01 6.13 6.15 +2.2 +0.3DK - - - - -EE - - - - -ES 2.35 2.32 2.50 +6.5 +7.8FI - - - - -FR 5.04 5.44 5.27 +4.6 -3.1GR 2.11 2.24 2.36 +12 +5.2HR 3.94 3.98 3.79 -3.6 -4.7HU 3.96 3.96 4.07 +2.6 +2.7IE - - - - -IT - - - - -LT 3.36 3.29 3.19 -5.0 -3.1LU - - - - -LV - - - - -MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL 3.55 3.49 3.68 +3.6 +5.5PT 1.68 1.47 1.54 -7.9 +4.9RO 3.90 4.12 4.01 +2.8 -2.6SE 5.58 6.36 5.54 -0.6 -13SI - - - - -SK 3.64 3.53 3.61 -0.6 +2.3
UK 4.33 4.48 4.24 -2.0 -5.4
Country
TRITICALE (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
EU 3.09 2.98 3.18 +3.0 +6.8AT 3.08 2.98 3.13 +1.4 +4.9BE - - - - -BG 2.74 2.70 2.79 +2.0 +3.4CY - - - - -CZ 3.26 3.07 3.19 -2.0 +4.0DE 3.39 3.30 3.64 +7.4 +10DK 3.91 4.40 4.12 +5.3 -6.3EE 2.10 2.47 2.18 +3.5 -12ES 2.10 2.13 2.07 -1.8 -3.0FI 1.49 1.28 1.48 -0.8 +15FR 3.33 3.08 3.29 -1.2 +6.7GR - - - - -HR 2.78 2.50 2.81 +1.0 +12HU 3.06 2.90 3.22 +5.3 +11IE - - - - -IT 2.59 2.60 2.72 +4.8 +4.5LT 2.61 2.40 2.59 -0.8 +7.9LU - - - - -LV 2.75 2.94 2.85 +3.7 -3.0MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL 2.78 2.79 3.00 +8.0 +7.7PT - - - - -RO 2.64 2.37 2.58 -2.2 +8.9SE 3.18 3.62 3.19 +0.4 -12SI - - - - -SK 3.03 2.88 3.19 +5.3 +11
UK 3.55 3.30 3.46 -2.6 +4.8
RAPE AND TURNIP RAPE (t/ha)
Country
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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4.2 Belarus, Maghreb and Black Sea area
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
BY 3.51 3.83 3.81 +8.5 -0.5DZ 1.57 NA 1.54 -1.8 NAMA 1.99 NA 1.77 -11 NATN 1.77 NA 1.79 +1.0 NATR 2.78 2.78 2.90 +4.3 +4.5UA 4.01 4.16 4.14 +3.2 -0.4
Country
WHEAT (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
BY 3.08 3.50 3.38 +9.9 -3.4DZ 1.28 NA 1.22 -4.3 NAMA 1.27 NA 1.12 -12 NATN 0.83 NA 0.82 -1.5 NATR 2.70 2.64 2.72 +0.8 +3.1UA 3.19 3.42 3.49 +9.4 +2.0
Country
BARLEY (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
BY 5.38 5.52 5.52 +2.6 +0.1DZ - - - - -MA - - - - -TN - - - - -TR 9.40 9.40 9.64 +2.5 +2.5UA 6.59 7.19 7.39 +12 +2.7
Country
GRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19
BY - - - - -DZ - - - - -MA - - - - -TN - - - - -TR 4.33 4.25 4.58 +5.7 +7.7UA 2.19 2.29 2.52 +15 +10
Country
SOYBEAN (t/ha)
Note: Sources:
NA = Data not available
2020 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM (output up to 10/03/2020)
Yields are forecast for crops w ith more than 10000 ha per country2015-2019 data come from USDA, DSASI-MADR Algeria , INRA Maroc,CNCT Tunisie,Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 25/02/2020),State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD-online
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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5 Atlas
Temperature regime
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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Precipitation
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020
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JRC MARS Bulletins 2020
Date Publication Reference
27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 23 Mar Agromet analysis, yield
forecast, pasture analysis
Vol. 28 No 3
27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing conditions, pasture analysis
Vol. 28 No 4
18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing update, pasture analysis
Vol. 28 No 5
15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, pasture update, rice analysis
Vol. 28 No 6
27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, harvesting conditions, pasture update
Vol. 28 No 7
214 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, pasture update, harvesting update
Vol. 28 No 8
14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, yield forecast, harvesting update
Vol. 28 No 9
26 Oct Agromet analysis, pasture update, sowing conditions, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 10
23 Nov Agromet analysis, harvesting update, sowing update
Vol. 28 No 11
14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12
The current JRC MARS Bulletin — Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources)
JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins
Analysis and reports B. Baruth, S. Bassu, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, Y. Chemin, P. De Palma, D. Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini
Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern
Edition M. van den Berg, B. Baruth
Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)
Contact JRC D5 / MARS4CAST [email protected]
Legal notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.
Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.
Technical note:
The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.
Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.