JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania European Early Warning Systems for Floods and Droughts -...
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JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
European Early Warning Systems for Floods and Droughts
-How could Romania benefit?
Dr. Ad De Roo
European Commission, DG Joint Research CentreInstitute for Environment and Sustainability
Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit Weather Driven Natural Hazard Action
JRC Information Day - Romania
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
Before
What can be done to prevent flood losses?
ForecastingEarly warning
• Forest Fires
• Floods
• Droughts
• Storms
Damage assessment
Prevention
Climate change
Land use change
EU Solidarity Funds
Structural funds
PreparednessAwareness
Risk maps
EFAS
EFFIS
EDAS
After
Scenario studies
Damage estimates
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
European Flood Alert System (EFAS)
Objective: 3-10 days early warning for floods
More time to prepare for a crisis!
• flood probabilities > 3-10 days
• forecasting for entire river basins
• information exchange platform
Complementing Member States’ activities (NIHWM Romania)
• harmonized overview: crisis aid
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
•Pilot study (EFFS; 2000-2003)
•Identify customer needs (2003)
•Prototype development
•Testing (with NHS)
•Transfer of operational system to MS (2010)
EFAS: from research to operation
Romania:
NIHW
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS – how does it work?
RO: now!
Forecast products
Input data
Model systemLISFLOOD
(JRC)
Feedback – Improvement
Impact assessement
Agreed partners
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS USER INTERFACE –
Exploring EFAS results in different ways
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS user interface:
Overview maps – summarising flood threshold exceedance
spatially
deterministic probabilistic
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS user interface:
Point information
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS: SIMPLIFYING INFORMATION
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS: looking back in time - persistency
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
Communication to endusers
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
European Flood Alert System:Example of a successful flood alert 30 July 2004
Siret, Romania
BlackSea
HU
SK
RU
BG
CZ
A
Rainfallforecasted
Flood problemsforecasted
AdriaticSea
Alert send on 30 July;Floods confirmed by NIHWM on 3-4 August
Low flood risk
Medium flood risk
High flood risk
Extreme flood risk
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS results in 2003-6
Early Flood Alert Reports to partners (Danube)
Aug 2003 Siret (RO)Aug 2004 Siret (RO)Jul 2005 Danube (SK, HU) Aug 2005 Rhine and Danube (HU, DE, AT)Sep 2005 Po (It), Danube (2 BG, RO)Mar/Apr 2006 70 alert reports to Elbe+Danube (*)
2005: 9 out of 10 events were correctly forecasted
more than 3 days in advance!
* (2006 floods: EFAS agreement with RO not signed yet)
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
Romania: Extremely wet summer 2005!July 2005 August 2005
In Romania & Bulgaria: at places more than 300% more precipitation than the average of 90-04
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS MARS >HAL
05.2005 obshi200501c20
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
21
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS MARS >HAL
06.2005 obshi200501c20
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
21
BU again flooded
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS MARS >HAL
07.2005 obshi200501c20
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
21
Ro/Bu Danube floods
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS MARS >HAL
08.2005 obshi200501c20
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
21
August Danube floods
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS MARS >HAL
09.2005 obshi200501c20
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
21
RO/Bu floods- again
French floods – small scale, also well forecasted! In particular the second flood peak
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS FLOOD ALERTS in MARCH 2006
3
4
5
6
7
1,2
1 : Rhine (DE), 07-12th
2 : Rhine (DE), 23-31st
3 : Elbe&Morava (Cz), 25-31st
4 : Danube/Tisza (HU), 27-31st
5 : Elbe (DE), 28-31st
6 : Morava (SK), 29-31st
7 : Danube (BG), 31st
Flood Alert Reports
Informal Flood Watcha – Soane/Rhone (FR)
b – Oder (PL)
a
b
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
EFAS FLOOD ALERTS in April 2006
2
3,7
4
5
6
1
1 : Rhine (DE), 1st
2 : Elbe&Morava (Cz), 1-7th
3 : Danube/Tisza (HU), 1-7th
4 : Elbe (DE), 1-7th
5 : Morava (SK), 29-31st
6 : Danube (BG), 1-9th
7 : Tisza (HU), 11-17th
Flood Alert Reports
Informal Flood Watch
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
History at a point - from 20.03
Overview Maps Forecast starting
on 03.04.06
DWD
ECMWF
EPS>HAL
to 15.04
Danube - Tisza
1) Tisza – Danube 12 External EFAS IRFrom: 27.03To: 07.04
2) Tisza7 External EFAS IRFrom: 11.04To: 17.04
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
History at a point - from 20.03
DWD
ECMWF
EPS>HAL
to 15.04
Danube - Morava
Overview Maps Forecast starting
on 03.04.06
Morava - Danube Informal EFAS InfoFrom: 29.03 to 07.04
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
DWD
ECMWF
EPS>HAL
Danube tributariesin Romania
History at a point - from 20.03
to 15.04Overview Maps Forecast starting
on 11.04.06
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
History at a point - from 20.03
DWD
ECMWF
EPS>HAL
to 15.04
Main DanubeLower I
Overview Maps Forecast starting
on 03.04.06
Danube 10 External EFAS IRFrom: 31.03To: 09.04
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
History at a point - from 20.03
DWD
ECMWF
EPS>HAL
to 15.04
Main DanubeLower II
Overview Maps Forecast starting
on 03.04.06
Danube 10 External EFAS IRFrom: 31.03To: 09.04
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
Latest EFAS forecast for Romania
EFAS: 9 May 12:00Nothing critical expected
River: Danube, section Arges - Ialom Basin: Danube,lower
Upstream Area: 677400
Date of this report: 2006050912
Forecast Day 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
DWD
ECMWF
EPS > HAL
EPS > SAL
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
European Drought Alert System Complementing Member States activities towards better preparedness for droughts
• forecasting, detection and monitoring of drought conditions
• integration of drought preparedness actions on international and regional scales
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20071.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
pF
Prahova Bacau Mures Arad
Trend: wetter soil conditions
2000 2002 2004 2006
Is Romania getting wetter ?
wet
dry
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
Conclusions• Need for transnational forecasting systems and collaborations for floods
• JRC-EFAS
• ICPDR
• Romania: fruitful cooperation with JRC
Outlook:
• Finalising EFAS for the Danube
• Impact of climate change on extremes
• Flood risk mapping
JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania
Information
http://natural-hazards.jrc.it
http://efas.jrc.it
Contacts:
Working together to be better prepared for natural disasters