1

JRAIA The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association

November 25, 2011

Intercontinental Seoul

Korea

The 5th Three Associations Meeting

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CONTENTS

◊ Statistics

◊ Study of alternate refrigerants

◊ JRECO JAPAN Refrigerants Environment Conservation Organization

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STATISTICS

Transition of yearly shipments Residential Air Conditioners

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Units ( in thousands )

Inverter

Jan.-Sep.

Statistics – Domestic Shipments

Calendar year

Transition of yearly shipments Commercial Air Conditioners

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Units ( in Thousands )

Inverter

Jan.-Sep.

Transition of yearly shipments Residential heat-pump water heaters

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Calendar Year

Units ( in thousands )

Jan.-Sep.

Transition of yearly shipments Commercial Refrigerators/Air Conditioners

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Chiller

GHP

PAC

Commercial Refrigerator

Self Contained SC

Water Cooler

Ice Maker

Remote SC

Transport Refrigeration U

Refrigeration U

Screw U

Centrifugal

Fiscal Year

Units ( in thousands )

Transition of yearly shipments Gas-engine driven Heat-pump Air Conditioners

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Units

Calendar YearJan.-Sep.

Transition of yearly shipments Centrifugal Chillers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Fiscal Year

Units

Transition of yearly shipments Absorption Chillers

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Fiscal Year

Units

Estimates of World’s Demand for Air-conditioners

Statistics – JRAIA Estimation

World Total in 2010 : 82,770,000 units

STUDY OF ALTERNATE REFRIGERANTS

World’s movement in fighting against global warming

Actions taken so far to protect ozone layer

Overseas

〇Prof. Rowland of the University of California, points out the effect of CFCs on ozone layer 〇Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer adopted 〇Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone Layer adopted 〇Almost all the nations in the world (196 countries and EU) ratify the Montreal Protocol

Japan 〇 The Law Concerning the Protection of the Ozone Layer through the Control of Specified Substances and Other Measures 〇 Signs the Montreal Protocol 〇 Law of the Recycling of Special Kinds of Home Appliances ○ Law concerning the Rational Use of Energy 〇 Fluorocarbons Recover & Destruction Law established; Law on Promoting Green Purchasing 〇 Law of the Recycling of End-of-Life Vehicles 〇 Fluorocarbons Recovery & Destruction Law revised

1974 1985 1987 1988 1998 2001 2002 2006 2009

Montreal Protocol has been revised six times for strengthened control

1990 London 1992 Copenhagen 1995 Vienna 1997 Montreal 1999 Beijing 2007 Montreal

Prevention of CFC impact on global warming

出展“Projections of global emissions of fluorinated green house gases in 2050” by Öko Recherche

Impact of air conditioning (incl. industrial refrigeration)

Share of HFC emissions by developing countries:76% in 2050.

Impact of commercial refrigerators

・Japan: around 5% of the total GHG emissions due to nearly completed conversion to HFC.

・World: HFC emissions will be more than 4 times as great as the current level if conversion to HFC is advanced in developing countries.

Share of HFC refrigerants in total GHG emissions

4 billion tons in 2050

◆Emerging nations: are accelerating their R22 reduction plan under the Montreal Protocol. ・There is a move toward propane as an R22 alternative for RAC. But, many firms are concerned about the safety of propane, hoping for the continued use of R410A for a time being. However, if the use of R410A increases, there is possibility that R125 will be in short supply. ・Most of the nations have not yet decided their policy and are worried over the HCFC phase-out. As they are required to report their policy to the UN by the end of this year, these nations are being put in a difficult situation. ・The move toward R32 as alternate refrigerants has gathered momentum.

Emerging nations’ HCFC phase-out plan (Montreal)

Latest movement in emerging economies

◆Developed countries: are struggling to reduce the impact of HFC refrigerants on global warming. Europe: with EU’s 20-30% GHG emissions reduction target, it is inevitable to take measures for the refrigerant control. Currently, EU is preparing for stricter F-gas regulation, and its proposed draft is expected to be made public early next year. Japan: as the refrigerant recovery has been encouraged in earnest, the recovery rate has reached 30%. In the 2008 study, refrigerant leakage during use was revealed, which has become a new problem. The Government and the industry joined in strengthening the refrigerant control and developing low GWP refrigerants, like R32 and HFO, and natural refrigerants, like CO2. USA: has proposed to discuss the HFC (+HCFC) phase-out plan at the Meeting of the Montreal Protocol (see figure below). Related organizations are putting more energy in study of lower flammable refrigerants.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

2020：70%

2025：５0%

2013：90% 2017：８0%

2029：30%

2033：15%

U.S.-proposed plan to reduce the HFC & HCFC impact on global warming

Impact on global warming was slashed by 85% in 2003

Movement in developed countries

・Due to the expanding HVACR market and the spread of HFC, it is worried that the impact of refrigerants on global warming is rising.

・Developing countries began searching for alternate refrigerants to HCFC(R22).

・Conversion from HCFC(R22) to HC or R32 is geared up in developing countries. R32 is a rising candidate as an alternative. ・The increased effect of refrigerants has become apparent in the review of LCCP. ・ASHRAE has created a new grade A2L for moderate flammable refrigerants in its classification. There is a movement worldwide toward lower flammable refrigerants with a low GWP. ・The UN approved the conversion project to R32 in China and Indonesia. ・A new regulation is planned in Europe to control refrigerants with a high GWP.

World’s Situation Surrounding Refrigerants

Movement of F-gas Regulation Review in EU

EU Commission ・ Makes a relatively cool judgment ・ Not designate specific refrigerants ・ Complete phase-out is assigned to certain products in which the substitution of F-gas is deemed technically feasible. ・ Content of the Regulation is based on EU 20-20-20 Strategy ・ Aims at reducing GHG emissions 80% by 2050. ・ Öko Recherche Report was produced by advocates of HC refrigerants, and it lacks objectivity. ・ A strong possibility of regulating total GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent ・ In favor of reducing HFC production & consumption under the Montreal Protocol, EU is likely to regulate HFCs in a similar way as proposed by North-America and Micronesia. ・EU Climate Action Commissioner Ms Hedgaard is the Danish Environment Minister who made the framework in Denmark for complete phase-out of HFCs. The industry is concerned about her intention.

European Parliament ・Environment Committee is most likely to adopt an extreme HFC reduction proposal. ・Resolution at the Plenary Session of the Parliament is important. The status quo is that most of EP Members are not aware of the F-gas issue. European Council ・ Northern Europe is likely to make a radical proposal; they say they are able to control installers’ skills. ・ The German Environment Ministry promotes the complete phase-out of HFCs, while the Industry Ministry opposes it. ・ Southern Europe thinks it difficult to control installers’ skills because refrigerant use is mainly for air conditioners and that the need for installers is varied from season to season. ・On the environmental issues, Northern Europe speaks more loudly than Southern Europe.

STUDY OF ALTERNATE REFRIGERANTS

Technical assessment of promising candidates as alternate refrigerants

Next-Generation Refrigerant Candidates

Refrigerants are composed of elements other than the following; ・Solid elements, like metal ・Elements having toxicity ・Hard-to-liquefy elements ・Rare elements Elements that constitute refrigerants are thought to be the combinations of the following five kinds of substances which are called Period 1-1A, Period 2-4B, -5B, -6B and -7B in the Table of Periodic Law. 1.Hydrogen (H) 2.Carbon (C) 3.Nitrogen (N) 4.Oxygen (O) 5.Fluorine (F)

Listed below are possible candidates as next-generation refrigerants, which are combinations of the above five substances and which are free from toxicity and high flammability. R-32, HFO-1234yf/ze, HFO-1234+R32 or R132a Mix, CO2, (H2O)

Refrigerants characteristics

CFC -12 F

Cl C

F

Cl

HCFC -22

H

C F

F

Cl

HFC -32 C

H

F

F structure

Study of HFO1234yf

1. Risk of moderate flammability High humidity condition enhances flammability 2. High pressure loss Large capacity drop in cooling Problem of power supply in cooling Enlarged diameter of connection pipes between equipment

by 1 or 2 rank 3. Occurrence of HF in burning 4. Influence of moisture in refrigeration circuit 5. Necessity for a mixed refrigerant with R32 or R134a (GWP

increase) 6. Issues of economical efficiency

Although the study has been conducted, favorable result is not found.

Review of R32

1. Though GWP of R32 is 675, one-third of R410, it is still high compared to HFO, HFO-MIX and other natural refrigerants.

2. Characteristics of R32 is remarkably superior and its efficiency is very high.

3. Both of supply capacity and cost efficiency are also superior.

4. There is a risk of moderate flammability and possibility of diesel explosion at leakage and pump down.

5. Temperature of discharge gas is high.

6. R32 is considered as flammable under current law. Relaxation of regulation is necessary. Risk assessment of moderate flammability is in progress.

1810 2027

675

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

100 97 70

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1810 1960

472 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

GWP 4th IPCC report Charging amount %

Comparison of Global Warming Impact among R32, R22 and R410A

R32 is possible to achieve 75% reduction at maximum of global warming impact.

CO2-Kg/Kg Kg/unit ratio CO2-Kg/unit ratio

Refrigerants Refrigeration Efficiency (kJ/kg)

Required amount %

R22 141.7 96%

R410A 136.7 100%

R32 219.8 62%

Comprehensive Global Warming Impact

1234yf(100%) 32(100%)

Properties of R32 and R1234yf blends

0

1 Baseline(410A)

-NEDO project revealed that refrigerants with a low GWP, such as 150 blends, have significantly lower efficiency than 410A. - Blends stay within flammability class 2L.

2

Composition

Com

pare

to R

410A

Risk of HC Refrigerants

・GIZ (Germany) recommends HC refrigerants mainly to developing countries as alternate to HCFC. In Japan, there are also some people who promote the adoption of HC refrigerants. ・HC is a strong combustion substance, having high risks of explosion and fire accidents. ・Use of HC refrigerants in air-conditioning equipment except specific systems is extremely dangerous. ・Accidents caused by HC refrigerants were reported in some countries.

■Natural refrigerants have many difficulties with actual use. ■At this moment, most of practicable new refrigerants are moderately flammable.

Candidates of refrigerants and characteristics

HCFC22

HFC410A

Ｒ３２ HFC

ｱﾝﾓﾆｱ (Ｒ７１７)

ﾌﾟﾛﾊﾟﾝ（Ｒ２９０ ）

Nat

ural

Ref

r.

CO2（Ｒ７４４ ）

Refrigerants

HFC407C

HFO1234yf

Refrigerant Characteristic Ozone

Depleting Potential

GWP Flammability ASHRAE34 Toxicity

0.05 1810 Ａ１ LOW

0 2090 Ａ１

0 675 Ａ２Ｌ

0 0 Ａ２Ｌ HIGH

0 3以下 Ａ３

0 1 Ａ１

0 1770 Ａ１

0 4 Ａ２Ｌ

HFO混合 ？ ？ Ａ２Ｌ

Condensing Pressure

MPa

1.73

2.72

1.78

1.53

10.00

1.86

1.16

？

2.80

Several proposals from refrigerant maker

100

92

97

106

98

41

99

90

Theoretical Efficiency Vs. R22

We have no choice but to use moderate flammable refrigerants to prevent global warming. Harmonization with safety laws is indispensable.

LOW

LOW

LOW

LOW

LOW

LOW

LOW

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Estimation is made based on following ; CO2 emission coefficient: 0.425[CO2-kg/kwh] Lifetime: 12years Operation hours: 9hrs/day Refrigerant leakage ratio: 2％/year Refrigerant recovery ratio at disposal: 30%

LCCP – CO2 Emissions Amount by Refrigerants

Comprehensive warming impact estimation and energy efficiency by refrigerants - Residential Air-Conditioner 4.0kw

CO2 emission amount

4101

3646

3217

3860

4687

3281

3860

98

178

0

702

501

1883

1345

36

25.2

13.2

0.25

23

32.2

0

1

1

1

2

3

263

478

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

1234yf（1.2kg 但し熱交大型化）

1234yf＋R32 （1.2kg 混合比50：50）

R32(1.1kg)

R290（ﾌﾟﾛﾊﾟﾝ；Secondly）(0.5kg)

CO2(1.05kg)

R410A（高効率）(1.4kg)

R410A（標準）(1kg)

Refrigerant production process Operation electric power for 12 years Leakage for 12years Emission at disposal

CO2 Emission Amount

30

30

Estimation is made based on following ; CO2 emission coefficient: 0.425[CO2-kg/kwh] Lifetime: 12years Operation hours: 9hrs/day Refrigerant leakage ratio: 2％/year Refrigerant recovery ratio at disposal: 30%

Comparison of Electric Power in Cooling Operation by Refrigerants

Comparison of Electric Power in Cooling Operation

167

132

97

133

143

100

115

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

R410A（標準）(1kg)

R410A（高効率）(1.4kg)

CO2(1.05kg)

R290（ﾌﾟﾛﾊﾟﾝ；Secondly）(0.5kg)

R32(1.1kg)

1234yf＋R32 （1.2kg 混合比50：50）

1234yf（1.2kg 但し熱交大型化）

%

SUMMARY

・Ideal refrigerants have not been found yet.

・Every candidate of next generation refrigerants bears some sort of faults.

・Usable candidates, in particular, are moderate flammable.

・We are forced to make full use of those candidates for prevention of global warming caused by refrigerants.

HVAC&R industry has been proceeding with the development of next generation low GWP refrigerants to mitigate the impact of HFC on global warming.

However ;

STUDY OF ALTERNATE REFRIGERANTS

JRAIA’s Policy on Refrigerants

Refrigeration safety regulation 1. Definition of flammable gases Gases satisfying both of a. and b. conditions in addition to specified gases in the regulation. a. Lower point of explosion limit is 10% or below b. Difference between upper and lower point of explosion limit is 20% or above 2. Definition of inert gases Gases satisfying fluorocarbon gases excluding flammable ones in addition to specified gases in the regulation.

Japanese High Pressure Gas Safety Law

Use of moderate flammable refrigerants (class 2L), such as R32, are regulated under the current law. It is under discussion to revise the current law so that class 2L refrigerants can be used.

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JRAIA’s Vision and Activities on Environmental Issues

Responsible Use Principles for HFCs

EQUIPMENT Energy Saving Emission control on a CO2 basis

REFRIGERANTS

Direct Emission Control

· Recovery activities

· Emission control in production

· Leakage reduction in use

ALTERNATE REFRIGERANTS

· Research and investigation

· Low GWP refrigerants

· Natural refrigerants

Name: JAPAN Refrigerants Environment Conservation Organization(JRECO) Date : October 1 2011 Tasks: ・Promotion of refrigerant emissions reduction in maintenance and equipment disposal ・Training and qualifying of engineers for refrigerant recovery ・Development of refrigerant recovery equipment ・Certification of refrigerant reclamation facilities ・Registration system of refrigeration and air conditioning equipment

Back ground: Refrigerants Recycling Promotion and Technology Center, the predecessor of the current JRECO, had been promoting refrigerant recovery and training engineers since its establishment in 1993. It is becoming urgently needed to prevent leaks from equipment. To enhance the activities against refrigerant leaks, JAPAN Refrigerants Environment Conservation Organization was set up as an independent organization.

Establishment of JRECO

Thank you for your attention