JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural...
Transcript of JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural...
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plcAnnual General MeetingJanuary 2020
Nicholas Weindling, Portfolio Manager
Political stability is positive
Source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management, ShutterstockAs of 7th January 2020.
2010 -
Prime ministers of Japan 1980 - 2020
1982-19871987
-1989
Take
shita
1989
Uno
1989
-1991
Kaifu
1991
-1993
Miyazawa
1993
-1994
Hoso
Kawa
1994
Hata
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-1996
Mura
yama
1996
-1998
Hashi
moto
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-2000
Obuchi
2000
-2001
Mori
2001-20062006
-2007
Abe
2007
-2008
Fuku
Da
2008
-2009
Aso
Nakasone Koizumi
2009
-2010
Hato
Ya
Ma
2010
-2011
Kan
2011
-2012
Noda
Abe
2012 -
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Female employment rates, ages 15-64, 1977 - 2018
Progress under Abenomics
Inbound tourists to Japan
Inbound visitors growth by region (January 2012 – December 2018)
(Calendar Year)
881%825%
535%515%
415%386%
368%331%
315%266%
251%202%
170%160%150%144%138%
119%109%
53%314%
0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000%
SpainVietnam
ChinaThailand
IndonesiaItaly
Hong KongFrance
PhilippinesTaiwan
South KoreaU.S.A.
GermanyMalaysiaCanadaRussia
SingaporeIndia
United KingdomAustralia
Grand Total
Sources: CLSA, JNTO, the latest available data as at 31 December 2018Source: Goldman Sachs, Quick, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, based on data from 31 January 1980 to 31 May 2019.
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Japan
USJapan = 71.0%United States = 65.9%
Corporate governance
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse, J.P. Morgan Asset ManagementThe latest data available as at 31 December 2019.
(JPY billion)
CY 2019 (YoY): 31%
201520162018
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Tokyo Stock Exchange Section 1 firms' announced buyback ceilings, JPY billion
Japan is an under-researched market
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Jefferies, Factset, data as of 30 September 2019* The base universe for this analysis is all companies listed in the US, Europe and Japan with market cap more than USD 10 million, and 3 month average daily turnover more than USD 0.1 million.
Poor sell-side coverage in Japan creates opportunities for active managers
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% o
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ith le
ss th
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ana
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Japan Europe USA
Japan vs US & EU: Percentage of companies with analyst coverage less than three 31 December 1999 – 30 September 2019 *
Auto industry faces structural challenges
The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. The use of their logos is in no way an endorsement of those companies by J.P. Morgan Asset Management nor is it intended to indicate an endorsement of J.P. Morgan Asset Management by those companies. Source: Statista 2018 J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The latest data available as at 31 December 2019. Image source: Shutterstock
VW Group Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi Group Toyota GroupGM Hyundai/Kia Group Shanghai AutoFord FCA HondaPSA Daimler SuzukiChangan BMW MazdaGeely Great Wall SubaruTesla
Today: Global automobile manufacturer market share, 2018
1 Year 3 Years(annualised)
5 Years(annualised)
7 Years(annualised)
10 Years(annualised)
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc (%)* -3.78 9.88 15.65 16.34 11.73
TOPIX (Total Return Net) (%) -0.71 7.88 11.88 12.67 8.51
Excess Return (Geometric, %) -3.10 1.85 3.38 3.26 2.97
Performance (GBP)
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Performance data has been calculated on NAV to NAV basis, including ongoing charges and any applicable fees, with any income reinvested, in GBP. Pleasenote Benchmark Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. * Cum Income only NAV with debt at par, diluted for treasury and/or subscription shares ifapplicable. Benchmark = Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) (Total Return Net).
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc as of 30th September 2019
-3.78
9.88
15.65 16.34
11.73
-0.71
7.88
11.88 12.67
8.51
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plcTOPIX Total Net
(%)
Performance
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. NAV to NAV with dividends reinvested. Net of fees. Currency: GBP. *Annualised, geometric excess returns. Investment involves risk. Please refer to the offering document(s) for details, including the risk factors before investing. The Benchmark is a point of reference against which the performance of the Fund may be measured. The Fund may bear little resemblance to its benchmark.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc as of 31 December 2019
1 Year 3 YearsAnnualised
5 YearsAnnualised
7 YearsAnnualised
10 YearsAnnualised
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc - GBP 27.11 12.29 15.30 16.80 12.34
TOPIX Net 14.21 6.32 11.73 12.06 9.12
Excess return* 11.30 5.61 3.19 4.23 2.96
Annualised performance (%)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc - GBP -6.24 19.22 -10.60 1.29 45.28 0.18 24.82 15.32 28.13 -13.07 27.11
TOPIX Net -6.82 19.37 -12.00 2.65 24.50 2.37 17.81 23.00 15.23 -8.67 14.21
Excess return* 0.63 -0.13 1.59 -1.32 16.70 -2.13 5.95 -6.24 11.20 -4.81 11.30
Calendar year performance (%)
Market valueJPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc GBP 934.8 m
Current Key Investment Themes and Positioning
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Portfolio weight numbers are only indicative and illustrative purpose only.The fund is an actively managed portfolio. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the investment manager without notice
As of 31 December 2019
Japan Brand29%
Internet24%
Automation19%
Healthcare12%
Improving corporate
governance12%
Aging population
10%
Stock specific7%
Key Themes Portfolio Weight *
Japan Brand / Tourism 29%Shiseido
Internet 24%CyberAgent
Automation 19%Keyence
Improving corporate governance 12%Tokio Marine
Healthcare 12%M3
Aging population 10%Nihon M&A Center
Stock specific 7%Miura
Key investment themes breakdown
Japanese equity investment professionals
Number of years experience: Industry/FirmSource: J.P.Morgan Asset Management. As of 31 December 2019
DDM Fundamental Growth
Christian PecherDirector of Developed Asia Pacific Market ResearchExperience: 21/21
Shoichi MizusawaHead of Japanese EquitiesTeamExperience: 26/22
Nicholas WeindlingExperience: 16/12
Miyako UrabeExperience: 10/5
Eiji SaitoExperience: 22/14
Oliver CoxExperience: 14/11
Aisa OgoshiExperience: 21/21
Robert LloydExperience: 18/13
Daisuke NakayamaExperience: 26/14
Masaki UchidaExperience: 16/16
Hideki KajitaniExperience: 32/22
Polina DiyachkinaOther Basic IndustriesExperience: 13/<1
Hiroyuki HanaokaMajor Banks/ Regional Banks/Financials excluding BanksExperience: 27/20
Koichi HirokawaAutomobiles & Auto Parts/Multi IndustriesExperience: 31/31
Hiromi TakehisaRetailExperience: 28/32
Nobuaki SawadaPharmaceuticalsExperience: 29/23
Keizo OsadaConsumers Staples/Consumer CyclicalsServicesExperience: 9/6
Shunsuke TsuchiyaTechnologyExperience: 16/7
David GleesonReal Estate/ConstructionExperience: 11/1
Yoshitsugu YamamotoIndustrial Cyclical/UtilityExperience: 13/13
Shotaro KominamiIT ServicesExperience: 7/7
Sector Analysts
Port
folio
Man
ager
sSe
ctor
Ana
lyst
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Asia Pacific including Japan
Jun Yamaguchi ChemicalExperience: 13/3
Michiko SakaiExperience: 9/5
Mark DavidsExperience: 22/22
Geoff HoareExperience: 11/18
Strategic Value
Rajesh PanjwaniMedia & TelecommunicationExperience: 19/ 2
Wataru MatsuzakiTransportationExperience: 6 /<1
Naohiro OzawaExperience: 12/1
Koji NamikiProduct AnalystExperience: 21/14
Xuming TaoProduct AnalystExperience: 6 /<1
9.7 tons CO2
210.6 tons CO2
Positive environmental outcomes
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. MSCI Carbon Footprint as of 31 December 2019
For USD1m invested in the JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc compared to USD1m invested in the benchmark…
JPMorgan Japanese Investment
Trust plcTOPIX
VS
Positive environmental outcomes
* 1 car produces 4.5 tons of carbon per year** An average commercial flight is 1,800kms and produces 2.5 tonnes of carbon*** Producing 100,000 sheets of paper has a carbon footprint of 6.0 tonnesSource: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Image source: Shutterstock. Data as of 31 December 2019.
3.67m***Fewer sheets of paper printed
45*Fewer cars on the road
81**Fewer commercial flights
or or
Which is equivalent to
9.7 tons of CO2 emitted for USD1m invested versus
210.6 tons for the benchmark
Aging population – we’ve been talking about this for years!
Source: OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), J.P. Morgan Asset Management, latest data availabe as at 30 June 2018
Population 15-64 years old
Population < 15 years old
Population 65 years old +
0
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40,000
60,000
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100,000
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140,000
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ThousandsProjection by OECD
Japanese population breakdown by age
59.6
59.9 60.0 60.2
60.4 60.6
60.8
61.2 61.5
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Nihon M&A Center
The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.Source: Tokyo Shoko Research, 28 February 2019. Image source Shutterstock
Holding since July 2012
“Friendly M&A for happy retirement”
Nihon M&A Center
(Years old)
Japanese companies’ presidents are getting old –company consolidations required
GMO Payment Gateway
The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. The use of their logos is in no way an endorsement of those companies by J.P. Morgan Asset Management nor is it intended to indicate an endorsement of J.P. Morgan Asset Management by those companies.Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, latest data available as at 28 February 2019. Image source Shutterstock
Holding since November 2015
89.1
60.054.9
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Percentage of cashless payments by country, CY2016
Fast Retailing
The company above is shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Fast Retailing, latest data available as at 28 February 2019. Image source: Shutterstock
Holding since October 2018
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Japan Asia Europe
Percentage of cashless payments by country, CY2016
Japan Elevator
The company above is shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as at 31 December 2019. Image source: Shutterstock
Holding since June 2019
Independent50%
Manufacturer affiliated
50%
Independent20%
Manufacturer affiliated
80%
Market Share of Independent Elevator - Worldwide
Market Share of Independent Elevator - Japan
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Morningstar, Investment Week. © 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. * Net of fees. Currency: GBP Annualised, geometric excess returns
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
Important Information
This is a marketing communication and as such the views contained herein do not form part of an offer, nor are they to be taken as advice or a recommendation, tobuy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document hasbeen obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available asadditional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial markettrends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. Theyare considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to changewithout reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with marketconditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value,price or income of the products or underlying overseas investments. Past performance and yield are not reliable indicators of current and future results. There is noguarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment products, there canbe no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply withour legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordancewith our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy. Investment is subject to documentation. The Investor Disclosure Document, Key Featuresand Terms and Conditions and Key Information Document can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Funds Limited or www.jpmam.co.uk/investmenttrust.This communication is issued by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.Registered in England No: 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.
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