JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural...

19
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting January 2020 Nicholas Weindling, Portfolio Manager

Transcript of JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural...

Page 1: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plcAnnual General MeetingJanuary 2020

Nicholas Weindling, Portfolio Manager

Page 2: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Political stability is positive

Source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management, ShutterstockAs of 7th January 2020.

2010 -

Prime ministers of Japan 1980 - 2020

1982-19871987

-1989

Take

shita

1989

Uno

1989

-1991

Kaifu

1991

-1993

Miyazawa

1993

-1994

Hoso

Kawa

1994

Hata

1994

-1996

Mura

yama

1996

-1998

Hashi

moto

1998

-2000

Obuchi

2000

-2001

Mori

2001-20062006

-2007

Abe

2007

-2008

Fuku

Da

2008

-2009

Aso

Nakasone Koizumi

2009

-2010

Hato

Ya

Ma

2010

-2011

Kan

2011

-2012

Noda

Abe

2012 -

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Page 3: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Female employment rates, ages 15-64, 1977 - 2018

Progress under Abenomics

Inbound tourists to Japan

Inbound visitors growth by region (January 2012 – December 2018)

(Calendar Year)

881%825%

535%515%

415%386%

368%331%

315%266%

251%202%

170%160%150%144%138%

119%109%

53%314%

0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000%

SpainVietnam

ChinaThailand

IndonesiaItaly

Hong KongFrance

PhilippinesTaiwan

South KoreaU.S.A.

GermanyMalaysiaCanadaRussia

SingaporeIndia

United KingdomAustralia

Grand Total

Sources: CLSA, JNTO, the latest available data as at 31 December 2018Source: Goldman Sachs, Quick, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, based on data from 31 January 1980 to 31 May 2019.

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Japan

USJapan = 71.0%United States = 65.9%

Page 4: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Corporate governance

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse, J.P. Morgan Asset ManagementThe latest data available as at 31 December 2019.

(JPY billion)

CY 2019 (YoY): 31%

201520162018

2017

2019

2014

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tokyo Stock Exchange Section 1 firms' announced buyback ceilings, JPY billion

Page 5: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Japan is an under-researched market

Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Jefferies, Factset, data as of 30 September 2019* The base universe for this analysis is all companies listed in the US, Europe and Japan with market cap more than USD 10 million, and 3 month average daily turnover more than USD 0.1 million.

Poor sell-side coverage in Japan creates opportunities for active managers

71

38

29

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Dec

-99

Dec

-00

Dec

-01

Dec

-02

Dec

-03

Dec

-04

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Dec

-15

Dec

-16

Dec

-17

Dec

-18

% o

f com

pani

es w

ith le

ss th

an 3

ana

lyst

co

vera

ge

Japan Europe USA

Japan vs US & EU: Percentage of companies with analyst coverage less than three 31 December 1999 – 30 September 2019 *

Page 6: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Auto industry faces structural challenges

The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. The use of their logos is in no way an endorsement of those companies by J.P. Morgan Asset Management nor is it intended to indicate an endorsement of J.P. Morgan Asset Management by those companies. Source: Statista 2018 J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The latest data available as at 31 December 2019. Image source: Shutterstock

VW Group Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi Group Toyota GroupGM Hyundai/Kia Group Shanghai AutoFord FCA HondaPSA Daimler SuzukiChangan BMW MazdaGeely Great Wall SubaruTesla

Today: Global automobile manufacturer market share, 2018

Page 7: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

1 Year 3 Years(annualised)

5 Years(annualised)

7 Years(annualised)

10 Years(annualised)

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc (%)* -3.78 9.88 15.65 16.34 11.73

TOPIX (Total Return Net) (%) -0.71 7.88 11.88 12.67 8.51

Excess Return (Geometric, %) -3.10 1.85 3.38 3.26 2.97

Performance (GBP)

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Performance data has been calculated on NAV to NAV basis, including ongoing charges and any applicable fees, with any income reinvested, in GBP. Pleasenote Benchmark Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. * Cum Income only NAV with debt at par, diluted for treasury and/or subscription shares ifapplicable. Benchmark = Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) (Total Return Net).

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc as of 30th September 2019

-3.78

9.88

15.65 16.34

11.73

-0.71

7.88

11.88 12.67

8.51

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plcTOPIX Total Net

(%)

Page 8: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Performance

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. NAV to NAV with dividends reinvested. Net of fees. Currency: GBP. *Annualised, geometric excess returns. Investment involves risk. Please refer to the offering document(s) for details, including the risk factors before investing. The Benchmark is a point of reference against which the performance of the Fund may be measured. The Fund may bear little resemblance to its benchmark.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc as of 31 December 2019

1 Year 3 YearsAnnualised

5 YearsAnnualised

7 YearsAnnualised

10 YearsAnnualised

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc - GBP 27.11 12.29 15.30 16.80 12.34

TOPIX Net 14.21 6.32 11.73 12.06 9.12

Excess return* 11.30 5.61 3.19 4.23 2.96

Annualised performance (%)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc - GBP -6.24 19.22 -10.60 1.29 45.28 0.18 24.82 15.32 28.13 -13.07 27.11

TOPIX Net -6.82 19.37 -12.00 2.65 24.50 2.37 17.81 23.00 15.23 -8.67 14.21

Excess return* 0.63 -0.13 1.59 -1.32 16.70 -2.13 5.95 -6.24 11.20 -4.81 11.30

Calendar year performance (%)

Market valueJPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc GBP 934.8 m

Page 9: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Current Key Investment Themes and Positioning

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Portfolio weight numbers are only indicative and illustrative purpose only.The fund is an actively managed portfolio. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the investment manager without notice

As of 31 December 2019

Japan Brand29%

Internet24%

Automation19%

Healthcare12%

Improving corporate

governance12%

Aging population

10%

Stock specific7%

Key Themes Portfolio Weight *

Japan Brand / Tourism 29%Shiseido

Internet 24%CyberAgent

Automation 19%Keyence

Improving corporate governance 12%Tokio Marine

Healthcare 12%M3

Aging population 10%Nihon M&A Center

Stock specific 7%Miura

Key investment themes breakdown

Page 10: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Japanese equity investment professionals

Number of years experience: Industry/FirmSource: J.P.Morgan Asset Management. As of 31 December 2019

DDM Fundamental Growth

Christian PecherDirector of Developed Asia Pacific Market ResearchExperience: 21/21

Shoichi MizusawaHead of Japanese EquitiesTeamExperience: 26/22

Nicholas WeindlingExperience: 16/12

Miyako UrabeExperience: 10/5

Eiji SaitoExperience: 22/14

Oliver CoxExperience: 14/11

Aisa OgoshiExperience: 21/21

Robert LloydExperience: 18/13

Daisuke NakayamaExperience: 26/14

Masaki UchidaExperience: 16/16

Hideki KajitaniExperience: 32/22

Polina DiyachkinaOther Basic IndustriesExperience: 13/<1

Hiroyuki HanaokaMajor Banks/ Regional Banks/Financials excluding BanksExperience: 27/20

Koichi HirokawaAutomobiles & Auto Parts/Multi IndustriesExperience: 31/31

Hiromi TakehisaRetailExperience: 28/32

Nobuaki SawadaPharmaceuticalsExperience: 29/23

Keizo OsadaConsumers Staples/Consumer CyclicalsServicesExperience: 9/6

Shunsuke TsuchiyaTechnologyExperience: 16/7

David GleesonReal Estate/ConstructionExperience: 11/1

Yoshitsugu YamamotoIndustrial Cyclical/UtilityExperience: 13/13

Shotaro KominamiIT ServicesExperience: 7/7

Sector Analysts

Port

folio

Man

ager

sSe

ctor

Ana

lyst

s

Asia Pacific including Japan

Jun Yamaguchi ChemicalExperience: 13/3

Michiko SakaiExperience: 9/5

Mark DavidsExperience: 22/22

Geoff HoareExperience: 11/18

Strategic Value

Rajesh PanjwaniMedia & TelecommunicationExperience: 19/ 2

Wataru MatsuzakiTransportationExperience: 6 /<1

Naohiro OzawaExperience: 12/1

Koji NamikiProduct AnalystExperience: 21/14

Xuming TaoProduct AnalystExperience: 6 /<1

Page 11: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

9.7 tons CO2

210.6 tons CO2

Positive environmental outcomes

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. MSCI Carbon Footprint as of 31 December 2019

For USD1m invested in the JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc compared to USD1m invested in the benchmark…

JPMorgan Japanese Investment

Trust plcTOPIX

VS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Our clients also want positive outcomes. Let me try to quantify how that works for our GEM Sustainable strategy. If you invest US$1m in the GEM Sustainable strategy vs a vehicle which mirrors the simple GEM benchmark, you will have exposure to almost 100 tonnes less of carbon dioxide …which sounds good, but what is that equivalent too?
Page 12: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Positive environmental outcomes

* 1 car produces 4.5 tons of carbon per year** An average commercial flight is 1,800kms and produces 2.5 tonnes of carbon*** Producing 100,000 sheets of paper has a carbon footprint of 6.0 tonnesSource: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Image source: Shutterstock. Data as of 31 December 2019.

3.67m***Fewer sheets of paper printed

45*Fewer cars on the road

81**Fewer commercial flights

or or

Which is equivalent to

9.7 tons of CO2 emitted for USD1m invested versus

210.6 tons for the benchmark

Presenter
Presentation Notes
- well, 100 tonnes of CO2 is approx. equivalent to….
Page 13: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Aging population – we’ve been talking about this for years!

Source: OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), J.P. Morgan Asset Management, latest data availabe as at 30 June 2018

Population 15-64 years old

Population < 15 years old

Population 65 years old +

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

ThousandsProjection by OECD

Japanese population breakdown by age

Page 14: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

59.6

59.9 60.0 60.2

60.4 60.6

60.8

61.2 61.5

61.7

59

59

60

60

61

61

62

62

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Nihon M&A Center

The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.Source: Tokyo Shoko Research, 28 February 2019. Image source Shutterstock

Holding since July 2012

“Friendly M&A for happy retirement”

Nihon M&A Center

(Years old)

Japanese companies’ presidents are getting old –company consolidations required

Page 15: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

GMO Payment Gateway

The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. The use of their logos is in no way an endorsement of those companies by J.P. Morgan Asset Management nor is it intended to indicate an endorsement of J.P. Morgan Asset Management by those companies.Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, latest data available as at 28 February 2019. Image source Shutterstock

Holding since November 2015

89.1

60.054.9

48.645.0

39.1 38.4

18.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sou

thK

orea

Chi

na

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Sw

eden

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Fran

ce

Indi

a

Japa

n

Percentage of cashless payments by country, CY2016

Page 16: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Fast Retailing

The company above is shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Fast Retailing, latest data available as at 28 February 2019. Image source: Shutterstock

Holding since October 2018

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Japan Asia Europe

Percentage of cashless payments by country, CY2016

Page 17: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Japan Elevator

The company above is shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as at 31 December 2019. Image source: Shutterstock

Holding since June 2019

Independent50%

Manufacturer affiliated

50%

Independent20%

Manufacturer affiliated

80%

Market Share of Independent Elevator - Worldwide

Market Share of Independent Elevator - Japan

Page 18: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Morningstar, Investment Week. © 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. * Net of fees. Currency: GBP Annualised, geometric excess returns

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

Page 19: JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting · Auto industry faces structural challenges The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion

Important Information

This is a marketing communication and as such the views contained herein do not form part of an offer, nor are they to be taken as advice or a recommendation, tobuy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document hasbeen obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available asadditional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial markettrends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. Theyare considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to changewithout reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with marketconditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value,price or income of the products or underlying overseas investments. Past performance and yield are not reliable indicators of current and future results. There is noguarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment products, there canbe no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply withour legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordancewith our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy. Investment is subject to documentation. The Investor Disclosure Document, Key Featuresand Terms and Conditions and Key Information Document can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Funds Limited or www.jpmam.co.uk/investmenttrust.This communication is issued by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.Registered in England No: 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.

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