JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan...

23
JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM Alexander Fitzalan Howard July 2015

Transcript of JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan...

Page 1: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM Alexander Fitzalan Howard July 2015

Page 2: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Growth shares

Income shares

JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the Investment Managers’ targets and aims only and are not necessarily part of the Fund’s investment objectives and policies as stated in the prospectus. There is no guarantee that these will be achieved.

Targets higher yielding Continental European equities with the potential for long term capital growth

Focuses on the highest yielding 30% of the market but only where we believe the dividend is sustainable.

Targets long term capital growth from Continental European equities

Invests in companies that have one or more of these characteristics:

• Attractive value

• High quality

• Positive momentum

JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc

Page 3: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Agenda

1) Performance and attribution

2) Current positioning

3) Outlook

4) Conclusion

Page 4: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Growth shares

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Thomson Reuters Datastream. Returns as at 31 March 2014, in GBP, relative returns calculated geometrically. NAV returns are net of fees and applicable charges, income reinvested, debt at par value. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11

Total Shareholder Return (%) +14.5 +24.1 +22.7 -11.1 +8.1

NAV Return (%) +7.9 +23.1 +20.0 -13.6 +10.4

MSCI Europe ex UK (Net) (%) +7.0 +17.0 +16.6 -12.1 +6.9

NAV Relative Return (%) +0.8 +5.2 +2.9 -1.5 +3.3

5 year annual performance to 31 March 2015

Page 5: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Growth shares Performance to 31 March 2015

Annualised excess returns versus MSCI Europe ex UK Index

0.8%

2.9%

2.0%

7.1%

6.1%

4.1%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

1 year 3 years 5 years

NAV

Share price

Fund NAV % (net of fees) 7.9 16.7 8.6

Share price % (mid) 14.5 20.4 10.9

Benchmark % 7.0 13.4 6.5

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns as at 31 March 2015, in GBP. NAV returns are net of fees and applicable charges, income reinvested, relative returns calculated geometrically. Benchmark indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Page 6: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Key sectors Key stock contributors

ENI (u), Statoil (u)

Kuka (o), Durr (o)

Pandora (o), Forbo (o)

Banco Santander (u), ING (o)

Prosiebensat.1 Media Ag (o)

Key stock detractors

Ascom (o), Nokia (u)

Zurich Insurance (u), Ageas (o)

Gas Natural (o)

JPMorgan European Smaller Companies Trust (o)

Deutsche Telekom (u), TDC (o), Tele2 (o), Orange (o)

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Growth shares

Source: FactSet. The above portfolio characteristics are shown for illustrative purposes only and are subject to change without notice. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities

Major stock and sector contributors to returns- 12 months to 31 March 2015

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%

Telecom. Services (u)

Diversified Financials (o)

Utilities (o)

Insurance (o)

Tech. Hardware & Equip. (u)

Media (o)

Banks (o)

Consumer Durables (u)

Capital Goods (u)

Energy (u)

Stock selection

Asset allocation

Page 7: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Income shares

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Thomson Reuters Datastream. Returns as at 31 March 2015, in GBP, relative returns calculated geometrically. NAV returns are net of fees and applicable charges, income reinvested, debt at par value. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11

Total Shareholder Return (%) +15.4 +28.8 +21.2 -6.3 +7.7

NAV Return (%) +10.7 +26.8 +19.1 -7.4 +7.6

MSCI Europe ex UK (Net) (%) +7.0 +17.0 +16.6 -7.2 +6.6

NAV Relative Return (%) +3.6 +8.4 +2.1 -0.0 +1.0

5 year annual performance to 31 March 2015

Page 8: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Performance to 31 March 2015

Annualised excess returns versus MSCI Europe ex UK Index

3.5%

5.1%

3.1%

7.8% 7.4%

4.8%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

1 year 3 years (p.a.) 5 years (p.a.)

NAV Share price

Fund NAV % (net of fees) 10.7 19.0 10.8

Share Price % (mid) 15.4 21.7 12.7

Benchmark % 7.0 13.3 7.5

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Income shares

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns as at 31 March 2015, in GBP. NAV returns are net of fees and applicable charges, income reinvested, relative returns calculated geometrically. Benchmark indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. Benchmark prior to 27 March 2013 was MSCI Europe Net Index (Total Return). Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Page 9: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Key sectors Key stock contributors

Santander (u), Unicredit (u)

Burkhalter (o), ABB (u), Compagnie De Saint-Gobain (u)

Hemfosa Fastigheter (o), LEG Immobilien (o), Klovern (o)

Pandora (o), Swatch (u)

Arcelormittal (u), Yara International (o)

Key stock detractors

L‘Oreal (u)

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (u), Volkswagen (u)

EDF (o), E.On (o), A2A (o), Iren (o)

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (u), Nestle (u)

Bayer (u), Novo Nordisk (u)

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Income shares

Source: FactSet. The above portfolio characteristics are shown for illustrative purposes only and are subject to change without notice. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities

Major stock and sector contributors to returns- 12 months to 31 March 2015

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

Pharma. & Biotech. (u)

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (u)

Utilities (o)

Autos. & Components (u)

Household & Personal Products (u)

Materials (u)

Consumer Durables (u)

Real Estate (o)

Capital Goods (u)

Banks (u)

Stock selection

Asset allocation

Page 10: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Agenda

1) Performance and attribution

2) Current positioning

3) Outlook

4) Conclusion

Page 11: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Portfolio characteristics

Benchmark: MSCI Europe ex UK Number of holdings: 129 Fund AUM £237m Typical tracking error: 4% p.a

Management team

Part of a team of 47 European equity investment professionals 14 years average experience

Company highlights

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Growth shares

The targets and aims provided above are the Investment Managers’ targets and aims only and are not necessarily part of the Fund’s investment objectives and policies as stated in the prospectus. There is no guarantee that these will be achieved. Fund size as at 31 March 2015, yield, gearing and discount as at 08 April 2015. *Yield is Trust Growth share class yield (net). ** For further information, including information on Trust fees and charges please visit our website at www.jpmeuropean.co.uk. There can be no assurance that the professionals currently employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management will continue to be employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management or that the past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of such professional’s future performance or success.

Fund overview

Alexander Fitzalan Howard Portfolio Manager

Stephen Macklow-Smith Portfolio Manager

Objective: long term capital growth

Targets: stocks with attractive value, higher quality and better momentum

Conversion between share classes (income & growth): • 15th March

Yield*: 2.6%

Discount: • Current 4.9%

Gearing: • Range: 90-120% • Actual: 104%

Ongoing charges apply**

Page 12: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Growth shares

Source: FactSet. The above portfolio characteristics are shown for illustrative purposes only and are subject to change without notice. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.

Portfolio positioning - as at 31 March 2015

-2.0% 0.0% 2.0%

Energy

Food Beverage & Tobacco

Health Care Equip. & Serv.

Capital Goods

H'hold & Personal Products

Banks

Autos & Components

Telecoms Services

Pharma Biotech & Life Sciences

Media

Top / bottom active sector positions Top / bottom active country positions

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

Switzerland

France

Spain

Norway

Sweden

Ireland

Belgium

Denmark

Netherlands

Germany

Page 13: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Portfolio characteristics

Benchmark: MSCI Europe ex UK Number of holdings: 239 Fund AUM £121 m Typical tracking error: 4% p.a

Management team

Part of a team of 47 European equity investment professionals 14 years average experience

Company highlights

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Income shares

The targets and aims provided above are the Investment Managers’ targets and aims only and are not necessarily part of the Fund’s investment objectives and policies as stated in the prospectus. There is no guarantee that these will be achieved. Fund size as at 31 March 2015, yield, gearing and discount as at 08 April 2015. *Yield is Trust Income share class yield (net). ** For further information, including information on Trust fees and charges please visit our website at www.jpmeuropean.co.uk. There can be no assurance that the professionals currently employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management will continue to be employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management or that the past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of such professional’s future performance or success.

Fund overview

Alexander Fitzalan Howard Portfolio Manager

Stephen Macklow-Smith Portfolio Manager

Objective: growing income together with long term capital growth

Targets: higher yielding stocks with sustainable dividends

Conversion between share classes (income & growth):

• 15th March

Yield*: 3.3%

Dividend payments:

• Quarterly

Discount: Current 2.7%

Gearing:

• Range: 90-120%

• Actual: 107%

Michael Barakos CIO & Portfolio

Manager

Page 14: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

JPMorgan European Investment Trust - Income shares

Source: FactSet. The above portfolio characteristics are shown for illustrative purposes only and are subject to change without notice. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.

Portfolio positioning - as at 31 March 2015

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

Pharma. & Biotech.

Materials

Food, Bev. & Tobacco

Autos. & Components

Capital Goods

Banks

Telecom. Services

Utilities

Insurance

Real Estate

Top / bottom active sector positions Top / bottom active country positions

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

Germany

Switzerland

France

Denmark

Netherlands

Portugal

Italy

Sweden

Finland

Norway

Page 15: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Agenda

1) Performance and attribution

2) Current positioning

3) Outlook

4) Conclusion

Page 16: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Source: (Left hand chart) Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As at 03 July 2015. (Right hand chart) Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As at 03 July 2013. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author at the date of publication which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice

European Sovereign 10 year spreads (versus Germany)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Greece

Eurozone

%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Italy 10Y Spain 10Y

Portugal 10Y Greece 10Y

Damage from Greek standoff is enormous but specific to Greece

Consensus forecasts for 2015 economic growth

%

Page 17: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

The impact of reform is real

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 March 2015.The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author at the date of publication which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice

Quarterly GDP (%)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Mar

07

Sep

07

Mar

08

Sep

08

Mar

09

Sep

09

Mar

10

Sep

10

Mar

11

Sep

11

Mar

12

Sep

12

Mar

13

Sep

13

Mar

14

Sep

14

Mar

15

Italy Portugal Spain

Ireland Greece

€110bn bailout for Greece

2nd Greek bailout (€109bn)

€85bn bailout for Ireland

€78bn bailout for Portugal

€100bn bailout for Spain

Italy commences reforms

Page 18: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

The rate of change in Europe is accelerating

2011 2015

Evolution between 2011 and 2015 Outlook

Consumers

Increasing tax Rising unemployment Pressure on real income

Unemployment has been declining since June 2013

Real income growth Fiscal consolidation Falling energy cost

Governments

Massive austerity Reforms to improve competitiveness Commitment to Maastricht criteria

No expansion yet

Banks

Asset Quality Review Centralised regulation Recapitalisation

Supply and demand of credit improving

Long term refinancing operations Better outlook due to yield curve

Corporates

Fortress balance sheet Repair debt De-gearing No capex Global growth slowdown

Domestic demand Mergers & Acquisitions Capex to start Euro weakness helps

competitiveness

Oil Euro QE

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. J.P. Morgan Asset Management Marketing The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author at the date of publication which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice

Page 19: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

European EPS Growth is strong

Source: MSCI, IBES, FactSet Estimates, Morgan Stanley Research. As at 31 March 2015.

Long term earnings growth Sector

-44.0%

-7.8% -3.5%

-0.1%

4.0% 9.8% 10.4%

17.0% 17.1%

28.0%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Ene

rgy

Mat

eria

ls

Con

s St

ap

Util

ities

Hea

lth C

are

Indu

stria

ls

Tele

com

ms IT

Con

s D

isc

Fina

ncia

ls

EPS growth 2015e

Source: UBS, March 31, 2015. Blue line represents trailing 12 month Earnings Per Share (EPS) for US universe, grey line for European universe. Rebased to 100 at 31 December 1987.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

US 12m trailing EPS

Europe 12m trailing EPS

The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author at the date of publication which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice

Page 20: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Valuation remains attractive

Source: MSCI, OECD, Morgan Stanley, Data as at July 2015. The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author at the date of publication which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice

P/E ratio (X)

MSCI Europe: Shiller Price to Earnings

…..but companies need to deliver on earnings

Page 21: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Agenda

1) Performance and attribution

2) Current positioning

3) Outlook

4) Conclusion

Page 22: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

Conclusions

Strong performance last year and over the longer term

Greece is dominating the headlines but little sign of contagion impacting the changes in Europe

Corporate earnings growth is accelerating

Valuations remain attractive

Both portfolios positioned to take advantage of positive trends in continental Europe

JPM European Investment Trust plc

JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015. The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author at the date of publication which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice. I would also add in performance disclaimer as we are discussing that: Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for future performance.

Page 23: JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc AGM...JPMorgan European Investment Trust plc Source: JPMorgan Asset Management as at 15 July 2015.The targets and aims provided above are the

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Fund Specific Risks The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product(s) or underlying overseas investments. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment product(s), there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met. Please also be aware that investment trusts may use gearing techniques (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both down and up which could mean sudden and large falls in market value. Some or all of the Manager’s annual charge for the Fund is taken from capital and/or income. Whilst this increases yield, it reduces the potential for capital growth. Important Information This promotional presentation is for information and educational purposes only and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The result of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product(s) or underlying overseas investments. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment product(s), there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide. You should note that if you contact J.P. Morgan Asset Management by telephone those lines may be recorded and monitored for legal, security and training purposes. You should also take note that information and data from communications with you will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with the EMEA Privacy Policy which can be accessed through the following website http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/privacy. Investment is subject to documentation (Investment Trust Profiles, Key Features and Terms and Conditions), copies of which can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited. Issued by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 288553. Registered address: 25 Bank St, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.