Jpmam europe dynamic fund range citywire_oct13
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Transcript of Jpmam europe dynamic fund range citywire_oct13
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
European Equities
JPMorgan Dynamic Funds
Citywire Wealth Manager Retreat October 2013
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
1
European equities have more than doubled since March 2009
Performance of MSCI Europe Index
Source: Datastream. Data from March 2009 to 1 October 2013. Includes reinvested dividends, in EUR. Past performance is not an indication of future.
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1st LTRO in December 2011 2nd LTRO in February 2012
Draghi‘s bumblebee speech
132%*
EU tells France, Spain Ireland & Greece to cut Budget deficits
IMF agree €110bn bailout for Greece
ESM set up with €500bn
€78bn bailout for Portugal
2nd Greek bailout €109bn + concerns on Spain & Italy
2
European equities are not driven by domestic economic growth
Australia
Norway
Canada
Spain*
USA
Japan
Austria
Netherlands
France** Belgium
UK
Italy***
Germany
Denmark
Switzerland
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
Rea
l equ
ity re
turn
s (%
)
Real GDP growth (%)
Source: SG Cross Asset Management. Thomson Datastream, OECD, MSCI Barra (first published in May 2010 – “Is there a link between GDP Growth & Equity Returns”). Equity returns from MSCI from 1970 – 2011 and GDP data from the OECD, * from 1980, ** from 1971, *** from 1984.
Real GDP growth versus real equity returns (1970-2011)
3
Closing the gap suggests $100bn of net inflows to European Equities
Source: EPFR, SG Cross Asset Research/ Global Asset Allocation. Data as at September 2011.
-150
-100
-50
50
100
150
200
-150
-100
-50
50
100
150
200
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
cumulative net outflows ($bn)
cumulative net inflows ($bn) EM
Europe
US
Japan
$100bn
4
Current valuations point to healthy returns
Source: MSCI, SG Cross Asset Research. European Dividend Yield is the Cyclically Adjusted Dividend Yield for MSCI Europe factoring in the 10 year average. Data as at 30 June 2013. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Return
Div
iden
d yi
eld
Year
European Dividend Yield, (%, LHS)
MSCI Europe returns over the next 5 years (% p.a, RHS)
5
5.5%
3.9%
2.0%
3.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1 year 3 years (p.a) 5 years (p.a) Since inception (p.a.)
Fund overview: JPM Europe Dynamic (ex-UK) Fund
Part of a team of 43 European equity investment professionals
Investment process: A best ideas approach focusing on stocks with attractive style characteristics
Benchmark: FTSE AWD Europe ex UK Net Index
Market capitalisation: multi-cap
Fund size £107m
Number of holdings 91
Expected alpha: 5%
Expected tracking error: 8%+ p.a
Annualised Performance, Net of A Class Fees (1.5%) Management team
Jon Ingram
Portfolio Characteristics
Excess return vs. FTSE AWD Europe ex UK Net Index
Portfolio Managers as at 30 September 2013. There can be no assurance that the professionals currently employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management will continue to be employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management or that the past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of such professional's future performance or success. Fund size as at 8 October 2013. * Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Figures in GBP, net of A class fees vs. FTSE AWD Europe ex UK, to 30 September 2013. Peer quartile is vs. the IMA Europe ex UK universe as at 27 September 2013 Excess return calculated geometrically. Inception date 30 September 2004.
Fund (%) 35.0 11.0 9.6 11.8
Benchmark (%) 27.9 6.9 7.4 8.6
Rank quartile 1st 1st 1st 1st
TE (%) 3.9 7.0 6.7 6.1
Inf Ratio 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.5
John Baker Blake Crawford
6
Strong performance across Dynamic range
2.8
10.5
2.0 0.8 3.6
0 4 8
12
6 mnths 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Since Inception (pa)
Excess Returns vs relevant benchmark as at 30 September 2013 (%)
1.6 5.2 5.5
-2
3
8
6 mnths 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Since inception (pa)
n/a n/a
Source J.P. Morgan Asset Management . Performance in GBP relates to the A-Net (acc) share class, NAV to NAV. JPM UK Dynamic Fund vs. FTSE All Share. Inception date Oct 2000. JPM Europe Dynamic (ex-UK) vs. FTSE All World Developed Europe from Oct 2008, prior to this FTSE Europe ex UK. Inception date 30 Sept 2004. JPM Europe Dynamic vs. MSCI Europe. Inception date Dec 2008. JPM Euroland Dynamic vs. MSCI EMU Index. Inception date Sept 2011. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Please refer to the Fund's prospectus for more information relating to the Fund.
3.5
10.2
3.4 1.6
3.6
0 4 8
12
6 mnths 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Since inception (pa)
3.6 5.5
3.9 2.0 3.0
-2
2
6
6 mnths 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Since inception (pa)
JPM UK Dynamic
JPM Europe Dynamic (ex-UK)
JPM Europe Dynamic
JPMorgan Funds- Euroland Dynamic
1 year 3 years 5 years Since
Inception
Fund return (%) 31.4 12.3 11.6 8.3
Benchmark (%) 18.9 10.1 10.7 4.6
Fund return (%) 35 11 9.6 11.8
Benchmark (%) 27.9 6.9 7.4 8.6
Fund return (%) 36.5 11.4 9.8 6.8
Benchmark (%) 23.9 7.7 8.1 3.1
Fund return (%) 35.3 - - 25.3
Benchmark (%) 28.6 - - 18.7
7
What do we believe?
Attractively valued, high quality stocks with positive momentum outperform the market
Quality ... our investment philosophy
8
BMW
Valuations remain attractive versus global peers
Positive news flow following International Motor Show in Frankfurt
Strong product pipeline – X5, X4, 4er, 3er GT, new Mini and Compact Active Tourer, i3, i8
Further upside potential from electromobility given current valuation of US based Tesla
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 08/10/13 The inclusion of the securities mentioned above is not to be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. These investment examples are included solely to illustrate the investment process and strategies which may be utilized by the Fund. Please note that these investments are not necessarily representative of future investments that the Fund will make.
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
9
Azimut holdings
One of the few independent asset gatherers in Italy
Focus on retail customers looking for capital preservation - Italy has a large pool (Euro3.5trn) of private financial wealth
Positive monthly net fund inflows since Q3 2011
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 08/10/13 The inclusion of the securities mentioned above is not to be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. These investment examples are included solely to illustrate the investment process and strategies which may be utilized by the Fund. Please note that these investments are not necessarily representative of future investments that the Fund will make.
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
10
PostNL
Regulatory support to improve profitability (increased stamp prices, abolition of Monday delivery, reduction in post box numbers)
Parcel and international divisions remain growth areas
Despite positive outlook valuations remain attractive – p/e 8.8x 2013 – p/e 7.2x 2014
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 08/10/13 The inclusion of the securities mentioned above is not to be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. These investment examples are included solely to illustrate the investment process and strategies which may be utilized by the Fund. Please note that these investments are not necessarily representative of future investments that the Fund will make.
1
2
3
4
Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13
11
Portfolio positioning – largest stock actives
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. Figures exclude cash. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Stock Absolute position %
Auriga Industries 2.9
PostNL 2.7
DFDS 2.2
Smurfit Kappa 2.0
NATIXIS 1.8
BASF --
Siemens --
Sanofi --
Novartis --
Nestle --
Active position %
JPM Europe Dynamic (ex UK) Fund – as at 30 September 2013
12
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Switzerland
France
Belgium
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Norway
Ireland
Denmark
-6.0% -3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0%
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech.
Personal Goods
Food Producers
Beverages
Industrial Engineering
Life Insurance
Nonlife Insurance
Aerospace & Defense
Automobiles & Parts
Industrial Transportation
Active sector positions Active country positions
JPM Europe Dynamic Fund (ex UK) – as at 30 September 2013 Fund positioning
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. Allocations are made at the managers discretion and can be changed without notice. The holdings represent the current holdings of the fund. However, it cannot be assumed that these types of investments will be available to or will be selected by the fund in the future.
13
Conclusion
Current market environment is favourable for unconstrained, conviction based active management
Process is at its strongest as macro influences subside and fundamentals return as the key driver of markets
Despite continued strong performance, Europe and UK markets remain attractively valued
Well resourced, experienced team with strong track record of outperformance
14
Appendix
15
Specialist investment teams with an average of 14 years experience
Core
Stephen Macklow- Smith William Meadon
Callum Abbot
Joanna Crompton
Sarah Emly
Alexander Fitzalan Howard
James Illsley
Richard Webb
Small / Mid Cap
Jim Campbell Martin Hudson
Guy Anderson
Georgina Brittain
Francesco Conte
Edward Greaves
Tim Lewis
Anthony Lynch
Katen Patel
Client Portfolio Management
Karsten Stroh Louise Bonzano Charlotte Crisp Will Johnson Ceri Jones Paul Shutes Nick Wilcox
Michael Barakos (CIO)
Dynamic
Michael Barakos
Tom Buckingham
Ian Butler
Ben Stapley
Kyle Williams
Style
Nicholas Horne
Judy Bromfield
Philippa Clough
James Ford
Rekha Halai
Chris Llewelyn
John O’Brien
David Allen
Steve Satchell
Jon Ingram
John Baker
Blake Crawford
Anis Lahlou-Abid
Alex Whyte
Investment Research & Portfolio Implementation
There can be no assurances that the professionals currently employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management will continue to be employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management or that the past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of such professional’s future performance or success.
16
European equities at a significant discount to US counterparts
Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As at 30 June 2013. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
MSCI US
MSCI Europe ex UK
Cyclically-adjusted PEs (CAPE) – US vs. Europe ex UK
Current discount: 46% 30 yr average discount: 12%
Year
17
Europe – Global leaders at a discount
Stock CAC40 Weight Description Domestic
profits PE13 US peer PE13 Comment
Total 11% Oil Major 3% 8.3x Exxon Mobil 11.5x Discount
Sanofi 11% Pharmaceutical 5% 13.6x Johnson & Johnson 16x Discount
LVMH 4% Luxury Goods 10% 18.3x Tiffany 21.3x Discount
Danone 4% Food manufacturer 10% 18.3x Coca-Cola 18.1x Faster growth
Source: Bloomberg, October 2013
18
'90 '95 '00 '05 '1090
100
110
120
130
140
150
Correction of structural imbalances
Euro launch
Unit labour costs Relative to Germany
Ireland
Greece
Spain
Italy
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12-4,5
-3,0
-1,5
0,0
1,5
3,0
4,5
6,0
7,5
Trade balances with the eurozone Six month moving average, € billions
Spain
Italy Greece
Germany
Source: Eurostat, ECB, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Guide to the Markets - Europe”. Data as at 30 September 2013.
Source: ECB, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Guide to the Markets – Europe”. Data as at 30 September 2013.
19
Corporate financial strength
European net debt/equity
Source: UBS, Based on UBS European Universe ex-Financials. Data as at 30 September 2013.
41%
46%
58%
53%
42% 44% 43%
40%
33%
27%
20%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
E
2014
E
2015
E
2016
E
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
€ billion Cash on MSCI Europe companies’ balance sheets
Source: J.P. Morgan Cazenove, Worldscope. Data ex-Financials, data as at 31 December 2012.
20
Big is not always better Returns have weakened as the fund has grown in size
Source: Morningstar Direct August 2013, IMA Sector = Europe ex-UK, in sterling
Returns
Size
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
10 Years 5 Years 3 Years 1 Year YTD
Top Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile Bottom Quartile BlackRock European Dynamic A Acc
Performance Relative to Peer Group Peer Group (5-95%): Open End Funds – Europe/HKG/TWN/SGP – Europe ex-UK Large-Cap Equity Currency: Pound Sterling
0m 250m 500m 750m
1,000m 1,250m 1,500m 1,750m 2,000m
Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13
Fund
siz
e –
com
preh
ensi
ve
(Mon
thly
)
BlackRock European Dynamic A Acc
Time Series Time Period: September 2003 to August 2013 Currency: Pound Sterling
21
JPM Europe Dynamic (ex-UK) Fund Fund objective and risk profile
Investment objective and policy
To maximise long-term capital growth by investing primarily in continental European equities.
Risk profile
The value of your investment may fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you originally invested.
The value of equity and equity-linked securities may fluctuate in response to the performance of individual companies and general market conditions.
The Fund invests in securities of smaller companies which may be more difficult to sell, more volatile and tend to carry greater financial risk than securities of larger companies.
This Fund is aggressively managed, which may result in higher volatility of the Fund's performance and bigger differences between the performance of the Fund and its benchmark.
For investors in Share Classes which are not hedged to Sterling, movements in currency exchange rates can adversely affect the return of your investment.
Please refer to the Fund's prospectus for more information relating to the Fund.
22
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
This is a promotional document and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P.Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you.
It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product(s) or underlying overseas investments. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment product(s), there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met.
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Investment is subject to documentation which is comprised of the Prospectus, Key Investor Information (KIID) and either the Supplementary Information Document (SID) or Key Features/Terms and Condition, copies of which can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited. Issued by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 288553. Registered address: 25 Bank St, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.