Jpmam europe dynamic fund range citywire_oct13

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management European Equities JPMorgan Dynamic Funds Citywire Wealth Manager Retreat October 2013 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

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Transcript of Jpmam europe dynamic fund range citywire_oct13

Page 1: Jpmam europe dynamic fund range citywire_oct13

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

European Equities

JPMorgan Dynamic Funds

Citywire Wealth Manager Retreat October 2013

FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

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European equities have more than doubled since March 2009

Performance of MSCI Europe Index

Source: Datastream. Data from March 2009 to 1 October 2013. Includes reinvested dividends, in EUR. Past performance is not an indication of future.

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1st LTRO in December 2011 2nd LTRO in February 2012

Draghi‘s bumblebee speech

132%*

EU tells France, Spain Ireland & Greece to cut Budget deficits

IMF agree €110bn bailout for Greece

ESM set up with €500bn

€78bn bailout for Portugal

2nd Greek bailout €109bn + concerns on Spain & Italy

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European equities are not driven by domestic economic growth

Australia

Norway

Canada

Spain*

USA

Japan

Austria

Netherlands

France** Belgium

UK

Italy***

Germany

Denmark

Switzerland

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Rea

l equ

ity re

turn

s (%

)

Real GDP growth (%)

Source: SG Cross Asset Management. Thomson Datastream, OECD, MSCI Barra (first published in May 2010 – “Is there a link between GDP Growth & Equity Returns”). Equity returns from MSCI from 1970 – 2011 and GDP data from the OECD, * from 1980, ** from 1971, *** from 1984.

Real GDP growth versus real equity returns (1970-2011)

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Fund no. 6030
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Closing the gap suggests $100bn of net inflows to European Equities

Source: EPFR, SG Cross Asset Research/ Global Asset Allocation. Data as at September 2011.

-150

-100

-50

50

100

150

200

-150

-100

-50

50

100

150

200

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

cumulative net outflows ($bn)

cumulative net inflows ($bn) EM

Europe

US

Japan

$100bn

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Current valuations point to healthy returns

Source: MSCI, SG Cross Asset Research. European Dividend Yield is the Cyclically Adjusted Dividend Yield for MSCI Europe factoring in the 10 year average. Data as at 30 June 2013. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Return

Div

iden

d yi

eld

Year

European Dividend Yield, (%, LHS)

MSCI Europe returns over the next 5 years (% p.a, RHS)

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5.5%

3.9%

2.0%

3.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1 year 3 years (p.a) 5 years (p.a) Since inception (p.a.)

Fund overview: JPM Europe Dynamic (ex-UK) Fund

Part of a team of 43 European equity investment professionals

Investment process: A best ideas approach focusing on stocks with attractive style characteristics

Benchmark: FTSE AWD Europe ex UK Net Index

Market capitalisation: multi-cap

Fund size £107m

Number of holdings 91

Expected alpha: 5%

Expected tracking error: 8%+ p.a

Annualised Performance, Net of A Class Fees (1.5%) Management team

Jon Ingram

Portfolio Characteristics

Excess return vs. FTSE AWD Europe ex UK Net Index

Portfolio Managers as at 30 September 2013. There can be no assurance that the professionals currently employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management will continue to be employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management or that the past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of such professional's future performance or success. Fund size as at 8 October 2013. * Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Figures in GBP, net of A class fees vs. FTSE AWD Europe ex UK, to 30 September 2013. Peer quartile is vs. the IMA Europe ex UK universe as at 27 September 2013 Excess return calculated geometrically. Inception date 30 September 2004.

Fund (%) 35.0 11.0 9.6 11.8

Benchmark (%) 27.9 6.9 7.4 8.6

Rank quartile 1st 1st 1st 1st

TE (%) 3.9 7.0 6.7 6.1

Inf Ratio 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.5

John Baker Blake Crawford

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Strong performance across Dynamic range

2.8

10.5

2.0 0.8 3.6

0 4 8

12

6 mnths 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Since Inception (pa)

Excess Returns vs relevant benchmark as at 30 September 2013 (%)

1.6 5.2 5.5

-2

3

8

6 mnths 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Since inception (pa)

n/a n/a

Source J.P. Morgan Asset Management . Performance in GBP relates to the A-Net (acc) share class, NAV to NAV. JPM UK Dynamic Fund vs. FTSE All Share. Inception date Oct 2000. JPM Europe Dynamic (ex-UK) vs. FTSE All World Developed Europe from Oct 2008, prior to this FTSE Europe ex UK. Inception date 30 Sept 2004. JPM Europe Dynamic vs. MSCI Europe. Inception date Dec 2008. JPM Euroland Dynamic vs. MSCI EMU Index. Inception date Sept 2011. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Please refer to the Fund's prospectus for more information relating to the Fund.

3.5

10.2

3.4 1.6

3.6

0 4 8

12

6 mnths 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Since inception (pa)

3.6 5.5

3.9 2.0 3.0

-2

2

6

6 mnths 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Since inception (pa)

JPM UK Dynamic

JPM Europe Dynamic (ex-UK)

JPM Europe Dynamic

JPMorgan Funds- Euroland Dynamic

1 year 3 years 5 years Since

Inception

Fund return (%) 31.4 12.3 11.6 8.3

Benchmark (%) 18.9 10.1 10.7 4.6

Fund return (%) 35 11 9.6 11.8

Benchmark (%) 27.9 6.9 7.4 8.6

Fund return (%) 36.5 11.4 9.8 6.8

Benchmark (%) 23.9 7.7 8.1 3.1

Fund return (%) 35.3 - - 25.3

Benchmark (%) 28.6 - - 18.7

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What do we believe?

Attractively valued, high quality stocks with positive momentum outperform the market

Quality ... our investment philosophy

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BMW

Valuations remain attractive versus global peers

Positive news flow following International Motor Show in Frankfurt

Strong product pipeline – X5, X4, 4er, 3er GT, new Mini and Compact Active Tourer, i3, i8

Further upside potential from electromobility given current valuation of US based Tesla

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 08/10/13 The inclusion of the securities mentioned above is not to be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. These investment examples are included solely to illustrate the investment process and strategies which may be utilized by the Fund. Please note that these investments are not necessarily representative of future investments that the Fund will make.

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13

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Azimut holdings

One of the few independent asset gatherers in Italy

Focus on retail customers looking for capital preservation - Italy has a large pool (Euro3.5trn) of private financial wealth

Positive monthly net fund inflows since Q3 2011

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 08/10/13 The inclusion of the securities mentioned above is not to be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. These investment examples are included solely to illustrate the investment process and strategies which may be utilized by the Fund. Please note that these investments are not necessarily representative of future investments that the Fund will make.

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13

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PostNL

Regulatory support to improve profitability (increased stamp prices, abolition of Monday delivery, reduction in post box numbers)

Parcel and international divisions remain growth areas

Despite positive outlook valuations remain attractive – p/e 8.8x 2013 – p/e 7.2x 2014

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 08/10/13 The inclusion of the securities mentioned above is not to be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. These investment examples are included solely to illustrate the investment process and strategies which may be utilized by the Fund. Please note that these investments are not necessarily representative of future investments that the Fund will make.

1

2

3

4

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13

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Portfolio positioning – largest stock actives

-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. Figures exclude cash. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.

Stock Absolute position %

Auriga Industries 2.9

PostNL 2.7

DFDS 2.2

Smurfit Kappa 2.0

NATIXIS 1.8

BASF --

Siemens --

Sanofi --

Novartis --

Nestle --

Active position %

JPM Europe Dynamic (ex UK) Fund – as at 30 September 2013

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-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

Switzerland

France

Belgium

Germany

Italy

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Norway

Ireland

Denmark

-6.0% -3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0%

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech.

Personal Goods

Food Producers

Beverages

Industrial Engineering

Life Insurance

Nonlife Insurance

Aerospace & Defense

Automobiles & Parts

Industrial Transportation

Active sector positions Active country positions

JPM Europe Dynamic Fund (ex UK) – as at 30 September 2013 Fund positioning

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. Allocations are made at the managers discretion and can be changed without notice. The holdings represent the current holdings of the fund. However, it cannot be assumed that these types of investments will be available to or will be selected by the fund in the future.

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Wendy Quarterly Download from factset. Sector grouping is ‘sector_msci_sector’
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Conclusion

Current market environment is favourable for unconstrained, conviction based active management

Process is at its strongest as macro influences subside and fundamentals return as the key driver of markets

Despite continued strong performance, Europe and UK markets remain attractively valued

Well resourced, experienced team with strong track record of outperformance

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Appendix

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Specialist investment teams with an average of 14 years experience

Core

Stephen Macklow- Smith William Meadon

Callum Abbot

Joanna Crompton

Sarah Emly

Alexander Fitzalan Howard

James Illsley

Richard Webb

Small / Mid Cap

Jim Campbell Martin Hudson

Guy Anderson

Georgina Brittain

Francesco Conte

Edward Greaves

Tim Lewis

Anthony Lynch

Katen Patel

Client Portfolio Management

Karsten Stroh Louise Bonzano Charlotte Crisp Will Johnson Ceri Jones Paul Shutes Nick Wilcox

Michael Barakos (CIO)

Dynamic

Michael Barakos

Tom Buckingham

Ian Butler

Ben Stapley

Kyle Williams

Style

Nicholas Horne

Judy Bromfield

Philippa Clough

James Ford

Rekha Halai

Chris Llewelyn

John O’Brien

David Allen

Steve Satchell

Jon Ingram

John Baker

Blake Crawford

Anis Lahlou-Abid

Alex Whyte

Investment Research & Portfolio Implementation

There can be no assurances that the professionals currently employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management will continue to be employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management or that the past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of such professional’s future performance or success.

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European equities at a significant discount to US counterparts

Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As at 30 June 2013. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

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10

20

30

40

50

60

83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

MSCI US

MSCI Europe ex UK

Cyclically-adjusted PEs (CAPE) – US vs. Europe ex UK

Current discount: 46% 30 yr average discount: 12%

Year

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Europe – Global leaders at a discount

Stock CAC40 Weight Description Domestic

profits PE13 US peer PE13 Comment

Total 11% Oil Major 3% 8.3x Exxon Mobil 11.5x Discount

Sanofi 11% Pharmaceutical 5% 13.6x Johnson & Johnson 16x Discount

LVMH 4% Luxury Goods 10% 18.3x Tiffany 21.3x Discount

Danone 4% Food manufacturer 10% 18.3x Coca-Cola 18.1x Faster growth

Source: Bloomberg, October 2013

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'90 '95 '00 '05 '1090

100

110

120

130

140

150

Correction of structural imbalances

Euro launch

Unit labour costs Relative to Germany

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Italy

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12-4,5

-3,0

-1,5

0,0

1,5

3,0

4,5

6,0

7,5

Trade balances with the eurozone Six month moving average, € billions

Spain

Italy Greece

Germany

Source: Eurostat, ECB, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Guide to the Markets - Europe”. Data as at 30 September 2013.

Source: ECB, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Guide to the Markets – Europe”. Data as at 30 September 2013.

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Corporate financial strength

European net debt/equity

Source: UBS, Based on UBS European Universe ex-Financials. Data as at 30 September 2013.

41%

46%

58%

53%

42% 44% 43%

40%

33%

27%

20%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

E

2014

E

2015

E

2016

E

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

€ billion Cash on MSCI Europe companies’ balance sheets

Source: J.P. Morgan Cazenove, Worldscope. Data ex-Financials, data as at 31 December 2012.

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Big is not always better Returns have weakened as the fund has grown in size

Source: Morningstar Direct August 2013, IMA Sector = Europe ex-UK, in sterling

Returns

Size

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

10 Years 5 Years 3 Years 1 Year YTD

Top Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile Bottom Quartile BlackRock European Dynamic A Acc

Performance Relative to Peer Group Peer Group (5-95%): Open End Funds – Europe/HKG/TWN/SGP – Europe ex-UK Large-Cap Equity Currency: Pound Sterling

0m 250m 500m 750m

1,000m 1,250m 1,500m 1,750m 2,000m

Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13

Fund

siz

e –

com

preh

ensi

ve

(Mon

thly

)

BlackRock European Dynamic A Acc

Time Series Time Period: September 2003 to August 2013 Currency: Pound Sterling

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JPM Europe Dynamic (ex-UK) Fund Fund objective and risk profile

Investment objective and policy

To maximise long-term capital growth by investing primarily in continental European equities.

Risk profile

The value of your investment may fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you originally invested.

The value of equity and equity-linked securities may fluctuate in response to the performance of individual companies and general market conditions.

The Fund invests in securities of smaller companies which may be more difficult to sell, more volatile and tend to carry greater financial risk than securities of larger companies.

This Fund is aggressively managed, which may result in higher volatility of the Fund's performance and bigger differences between the performance of the Fund and its benchmark.

For investors in Share Classes which are not hedged to Sterling, movements in currency exchange rates can adversely affect the return of your investment.

Please refer to the Fund's prospectus for more information relating to the Fund.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

This is a promotional document and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P.Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you.

It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product(s) or underlying overseas investments. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment product(s), there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide. You should note that if you contact J.P. Morgan Asset Management by telephone those lines may be recorded and monitored for legal, security and training purposes. You should also take note that information and data from communications with you will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with the EMEA Privacy Policy which can be accessed through the following website http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/privacy.

Investment is subject to documentation which is comprised of the Prospectus, Key Investor Information (KIID) and either the Supplementary Information Document (SID) or Key Features/Terms and Condition, copies of which can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited. Issued by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 288553. Registered address: 25 Bank St, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.