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June 5, 2017 SHANE TEDJARATI | President & CEO, Global High Growth Regions JP MORGAN GLOBAL CHINA SUMMIT 2017

Transcript of JP MORGAN GLOBAL CHINA SUMMIT 2017 - JPMorgan …medialibrary... · JP MORGAN GLOBAL CHINA SUMMIT...

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June 5, 2017 SHANE TEDJARATI | President & CEO, Global High Growth Regions

JP MORGAN GLOBAL CHINA SUMMIT 2017

Page 2: JP MORGAN GLOBAL CHINA SUMMIT 2017 - JPMorgan …medialibrary... · JP MORGAN GLOBAL CHINA SUMMIT 2017. ... From 1405-1433, Zheng He commanded the Ming dynasty's fleet of immense

China’s Record-Breaking Rate of Development

1

Number Of Years To Double Real GDP Per Capita

- Fastest rate of doubling GDP

- FOUR DOUBLEs in just 33 years

UK US Japan China

Post Great Depression Post World War II Post China Economic Reform

Source: UK - Bank of England (Three Centuries of Macroeconomic Data) (2013 £)

US - US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau, World Bank, HON Analysis (2009 US$)

Japan – The Maddison Project (1945-1955), Japan Statistics Bureau (1955-2015), HON Analysis (1990 JP Yen)

China - World Bank (Constant 2010 US$)

Industrial Revolution

1st: 1760

2nd: 1820

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From “BRICS” to “CRest” (China & the Rest)

2

In 2000, when BRICS Was Coined… … Fast Forward to 2016

Source: 2001 Global Economics Paper No:66 by Goldman Sachs, IHS Database, World Bank

GDP US$ Bn

GDP% of World

US 9,963 33.1%

Brazil 588 2.0%

Russia 247 0.8%

India 474 1.6%

China 1,080 3.6%

South Africa 136 0.5%

GDP% of World

Growth

Multiple

Incremental

GDP US$ Bn

24.7% 1.9X 8,606

2.4% 3.1X 1,206

1.7% 5.2X 1,032

3.0% 4.7X 1,770

14.9% 10.3X 10,100

0.4% 2.2X 159

The most

significant

needle-mover

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Laser Focus on Revolutionizing Industries

3

Strong Ambition In Advanced Manufacturing“Made In China 2025”

Source: IHS Global Insight; Int’l Federation of Robotics; Macquarie Research; Statista.com; MOFCOM;

Ernst & Young; KPMG; Company Website; HON Research

17%

40

230$B

R&D Investment VC Investment Patents Filed

2.5K

43K

2005 2016

45%

0.5

30$B

Aviation New

Materials

Rail / Metro

Transportation

Renewables Biomedical

Moving From Imitators To Innovators

No. 2 No. 2 No. 3

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Legacy of Global Outreach

4

From 1405-1433, Zheng He commanded the Ming dynasty's fleet of immense trading vessels on

expeditions ranging as far as Africa.

Source: Philips Atlas of World History; China Ministry of Culture

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From Broad Exploration To Targeted Strategic Investments

5

Increasing Pace of ODIChina Outbound Direct Investment (non-financial)*

Reached $170Bn In 2016, 22% CAGR From 2009

Changing Mix of Investment SectorsChinese Overseas M&A By Industry ($B)

Telecom, Media, Tech

Transport

Finance

Others

Industrials

Oil, Gas & Other Resources

* Continental breakdown of China Outbound Direct Investment based on 2015 data.

Asia

74%

North

America

7.4%

LATAM

8.6%

Europe

4.9%

Africa

2%

Oceania

2.7%

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Building The “New Silk Road” – “One Belt, One Road”

Silk Road Economies*

>40%of world

GDP

>60% of world

population

>50% of ’15-’20 world incr.

GDP

7

$14.5BTotal Direct Investment

8.5% Of Total ODI

$126BValue of New Contracts

$50B+Cumulative

Investment Value (‘14-’16)

12Free Trade Agreements

2016 ScorecardFinancial Support($B) Silk Road Fund CDB Ex-Im Bank

AIIBBRICS Bank

*OBOR initiative covers 65 countries in Asia, Africa & Europe

**$124B new investment announced @ Belt & Road Summit on May 14th, 2017

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