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1 JP Morgan 2009 Australasian Conference October 2009 O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D 2 DISCLAIMER While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Oil Search Limited does not warrant that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for its intended use. Subject to any terms implied by law which cannot be excluded, Oil Search Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in information in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice. This presentation also contains forward-looking statements which are subject to particular risks associated with the oil and gas industry. Oil Search Limited believes there are reasonable grounds for the expectations on which the statements are based. However actual outcomes could differ materially due to a range of factors including oil and gas prices, demand for oil, currency fluctuations, drilling results, field performance, the timing of well work-overs and field development, reserves depletion, progress on gas commercialisation and fiscal and other government issues and approvals.

Transcript of JP Morgan 2009 Australasian Conference - Home - Oil ... Morgan 2009 Australasian Conference October...

1

JP Morgan 2009

Australasian Conference

October 2009

O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D

2

DISCLAIMER

While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Oil Search Limited does not warrant that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for its intended use. Subject to any terms implied by law which cannot be excluded, Oil Search Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in information in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice.This presentation also contains forward-looking statements which are subject to particular risks associated with the oil and gas industry. Oil Search Limited believes there are reasonable grounds for the expectations on which the statements are based. However actual outcomes could differ materially due to a range of factors including oil and gas prices, demand for oil, currency fluctuations, drilling results, field performance, the timing of well work-overs and field development, reserves depletion, progress on gas commercialisation and fiscal and other government issues and approvals.

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Oil Search Profile

Established in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 1929

Operates all of PNG’s producing oil and gas fields. Current gross production ~40,000 boepd, net share ~21,000 boepd

As operator, responsible for generating 22% of PNG’s export revenue and 13% of its GDP in 2008 and is PNG’s largest investor and taxpayer

PNG Government is largest shareholder with 17.6%. In early 2009, Govt issued exchangeable bond over shares to IPIC of Abu Dhabi. Money raised by this Bond secured equity funding for PNG Government’s share in PNG LNG Project

~30% interest in PNG LNG Project, world scale LNG project operated by ExxonMobil. FID expected late 2009

Significant further gas resources still to be commercialised plus range of material exploration interests in PNG and Middle East/North Africa

Market capitalisation ~US$6 billion. Listed on ASX (Share Code OSH) and POMSOX, plus ADR programme (Share Code OISHY)

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Oil Search Locations

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Strong 5 Year Share Price Performance

OSH has delivered consistent top quartile performance.TSR for five years to end 2008 of 396%, 7th out of ASX 100

Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08

Share price (rebased to OSH)

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jan 09

Santos

ASX 100

WTI oil

Jul 09

Woodside

Oil Search

28-Sep-09

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Financial Performance

US$m

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

85.7

107.3

200.2 207.5

140.8

240.0

900

350.8

416.3

664 644.5718.6

814.3

239.1

330

554.3 544.8598.2

698.0

191.3

276.7

357.7

399

326.8

507.4

EBITDAX

Revenue OperatingCash Flow

CoreNet Profit

Share price underpinned by positive financial performance

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2009 First Half Performance Summary

Sound operating performance in 1H09, despite challenging conditions

NPAT of US$35.6m vs US$133.3m in pcp. Result driven by 55% lower oil price of US$51.84 per barrel, marginally lower production and liftings imbalance

Cash operating margin remained healthy at 78%, despite lower oil price

Balance Sheet strong with current cash balance of >US$430m

Debt free, with US$391.5m draw down facility available

Board approved payment of two US cents per ordinary share, unfranked, interim dividend. Payable on 9 October 2009

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World Class Safety Performance

Total Recordable Incidents (TRIs) of 1.1 in 1H09

TR

I /

1,0

00

,00

0 H

ou

rs

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007

Oil Search

2006

Australian Companies (APPEA)

2008

8.5

10.69.8 10.7

5.8

1.7

4.7

2.4 2.31 2.052.04

InternationalCompanies

(OGP)

12.7

9.1 9.37.8

7.0 7.3

5.2

9.4

8.2

6.3 6.8

3.9 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.1

4.0

3.6

4.9

5.76.0

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Strategic Direction

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The Next Growth Phase

PNG LNG T1 and T2 is transformational for both Oil Search and PNG

~ 580mmboe of 2P reserves will be commercialised (pre-Govt back-in)

Nearly triples OSH’s production base

Introduces ~30 yr plus legacy cashflow

More than doubles PNG’s GDP, triples export revenues

Substantial further growth potentialFurther 300mmboe discovered resource to commercialise

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The Next Growth Phase

Oil Search 2002/03 Strategic Review provided framework for delivery of consistent top quartile returnsNow undertaking major strategic update in light of expected PNG LNG Sanction 2009 Strategic Review is focused on:-

Optimisation of existing assets− Producing fields− Infrastructure− Drilling rigs

Delivery of PNG LNG T1 and T2Future growth− LNG Growth

− Achieving cost synergies with T1 and T2− Resource accumulation strategy

− Active appraisal and exploration programmes focused on material opportunities, portfolio optimisation

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IPIC Transaction

Expect to finalise terms shortly for sale of effective interest in PDL 2, including ~ 3.5% interest in PNG LNG Project, to IPIC

Funds raised will strengthen Balance Sheet, providing capital for growth initiatives including:

Exploration and appraisal activities to confirm contractible reserves LNG expansionOther gas commercialisation opportunities

Also provides buffer for funding of PNG LNG Project

IPIC welcomed by other JV partners, financiersDivestment is:

Value-accretive for shareholders, relative to share priceProvides a third-party see-through valuation Represents optimal way to raise funds for expansion

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Gas Commercialisation

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PNG LNG Project -Summary

All targeted milestones achieved, including:Umbrella Benefits Sharing Agreement signedMarkets – alignment on commercial terms with customers, covering full 6.3 MTPA capacityEarly Works approvals and commencement of activitiesAgreement on key terms for financing facilityEIS approved in principle

Final Investment Decision in late 2009, first LNG sales late 2013/early 2014

Final capital cost estimate expected 4Q09

Continued strong support from the PNG Government

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PNG LNG Project

Hides & Angore

Juha

Kopi

Kutubu & Agogo

Gobe

Port Moresby75km

310 km 32”gas onshore

pipeline

Juha Production facility 250 mmscfd

960 mmscfd Hides Gas Conditioning Plant

65 km 14” gas line & 8”

liquids line

110km 8”condensate line

~400km 34”subsea gas line

LNG Facility

Existing 270km 20” crude pipeline

Kumul

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Project Update –FEED/Early Works

FEEDTechnical and commercial analysis of bids for major supply contracts underway, contractor selection (with award conditional on FID) in 4Q09

Final capital cost available in 4Q09

Early WorksRange of early works activities now underway, including construction of training facilities in Port Moresby and Highlands, work to open up northern and southern supply routes

Activities will have positive impact on overall timetable, enables full scale construction to commence early 2010

Testing in-country capability

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Project Update - Financing

Comprehensive term sheet negotiated by PNG LNG Project finance team with a number of Export Credit Agencies (ECAs)

All key terms agreed, including 70% debt: 30% equity gearing ratio

Detailed discussions with commercial banks underway, based on ECA term sheet. Cornerstone of financing expected to be ECAs, with balance coming from banks, partner co-lending and potentially bond markets

Offers of finance from ECAs & banks expected 4Q09

OSH’s equity share covered by cash,corporate debt facility and cash flows

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Project Update In-country issues

Landowner agreementsUmbrella Benefits Sharing Agreement signed in May in KokopoIndividual licence-based forums have commenced to determine detailed benefits sharing arrangements within the licence landowners

EIS approved in principleLicence applications submitted for all upstream, pipeline and plant licences

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PNG LNG Milestones

2010 2012 20142011 2013

CommencedEarly Works

2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09

UBSA

1Q 09

Signed HOAs ReceiveEPC bids

FinaliseCapex

Receive offersof project finance

Commenceconstruction

First LNG sales

Final InvestmentDecision

SignSPAs

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Gas Resources in PNG

OSH Operated LicenceOSH Interest LicencePetroleum Development LicencePetroleum Retention LicenceLicence ApplicationOil FieldGas FieldOil & Gas FieldOil PipelineProposed Gas Pipeline

Kumul Terminal

PRL01

PPL234

PRL08PPL240

PRL03

PRL11

PRL12

PPL239

PDL1

PPL233

PPL190

PPL219

PRL10

PRL02

PDL2

PDL5PDL6

PDL4

PDL3

PRL09

142°E

9°S

7°S

145°E50km

APDL14

PPL260

AngoreJuhaHides

Moran

Agogo Kutubu

Gobe Main

PNG LNG ProjectGas Resources

Mananda Attic

Flinders

Barikewa Deep

Huria

Hedinia FW

Lead 7

WasumaGobe Deep

Hides FW

Pasca B

ExplorationGas Resources

Pandora

Barikewa

Uramu

P’nyang

Kimu

Juha North

SE Gobe

Non PNG LNG Gas Resources

3rd Train Threshold

0

5

10

15

20

25 tcf

PNG LNG3C

Upside

PNG LNG

Base Volume

2C

3C

Other Highlands JV Partner Resources

4th Train Threshold

2C

3C

Forelands &

Offshore Resources

Exploration

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LNG Expansion

PNG LNG infrastructure will provide substantial cost synergies for further LNG expansion

Studies underway on third train, focusing on:-Timing

Cost synergies

Resource requirements

Economics

Key requirement is proving up sufficient contractible gas to underpin the investment

Integrated exploration and appraisal programme including seismic and drilling

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Operations Review

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Hides

PNG Producing Oil & Gas Fields

PRL01

PPL234

PPL260

PRL08PPL240

PRL03

PRL11

PRL12PPL239

PDL1

PPL190

PPL219

PRL10

PRL02

PDL2

PDL5PDL6

PDL4

PDL3

PRL09

PPL244

OSH Operated LicenceOSH Interest LicencePetroleum Development LicencePetroleum Retention LicenceLicence ApplicationOil FieldGas FieldOil & Gas FieldOil Pipeline

142°E

9°S

6°S

145°E

Kumul Terminal

Moran

AgogoKutubu

Gobe Main

SE Gobe

SE Mananda PPL233

50km

APPL342

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Providing Cash for Growth

Since Oil Search took over operatorship of PNG oil fields in 2003, fields have produced ~50 mmbbl in excess of previous operator’s expectations and field life extendedExisting oilfields are mature (decline rate of 15-20%) but with appropriate investment, expect to mitigate decline curve to approx 10% Strategic review of field operations nearing completion. Key objectives are:

Delivering safe and cost effective operationsMaximise cash flows to support PNG LNG financingMeet project delivery obligations for gas to PNG LNGIntegrate and optimise oil & gas businesses

Revised operating philosophy in oil field operations Gas supply to LNGValue and conservation of gasImproved reliability and sustained operability of facilities

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Active Cost Management

PNG production is highly profitable – net oil field costs US$10.74/bbl in 1H09, US$9.97/boe including gas field costs

Global industry cost pressures easing

Continuing active cost reduction programmes

Adverse currency movements will put upward pressure on opex in 2H09

Field Costs Other Opex Corp Costs/FX

US$/boe Total cash costs per boe

10.68

2.18

1.09

9.97

1.52

0.46

1.88

1.75

9.13

1.45

1.26

7.64

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 1H09

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PNG Gross Oil Production

Oil R

ate

(b

op

d)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2004 – 2008Devt capex = $7.91/bbl,

Opex =$9.82/bbl

Pre-OSHDecline

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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OSH Net Production

Net Production (mmboe)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F

Kutubu

Moran

Gobe Main

SE Gobe

SEM

Hides GTE

MENA

Production outlook for 2009 of 8.0 – 8.3 mmboe

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Field Development Drilling Activity

Usano:2009 : 2 wells

SE Gobe:2010 : 1-2 wells

Kutubu:2009 : 2 wells2010: ±1 well

Agogo:2009 : 1 well2010: ±1 well

Moran:2009 : 1 well2010: 2 wells

PRL08

PPL240

PRL11

PRL12

PPL239 PDL1

PPL233

PPL190

PPL219

PRL02

PDL2

PDL5PDL6

PRL09

APRL14

PPL260

PPL219

PDL4

PPL219

PDL3

PDL4

PRL12

50km

AngoreJuha

Hides

SE Mananda

Gobe Main

Barikewa

Kimu

Cobra

Iehi

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2009 Exploration Update

Active 2H09 programme, focusing on maturing gas prospects in PNG and MENA commitments2H09 activities include:

PNG

MENA

PNG:− Wasuma well in PPL219

commencing 4Q09− 2D Seismic− Portfolio optimisation− PNG CSG licences activity

planning and start-up− Well site preparation in PPL 260

MENA:− Shakal well in Kurdistan − Caliph well in Libya− Tubb’a in Block 3, Yemen− Al Meashar in Block 7, Yemen− K42 Kurdistan award / seismic

option start-up

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PNG Exploration

PRL01

PPL234

PRL08PPL240

PRL03

PRL11

PRL12PPL239

PDL1

PPL233

PPL190

PPL219

PRL10

PRL02

PDL2

PDL4

PDL3

PRL09

PPL244

142°E

9°S

6°S

145°E50km

Fold Belt

Kumul Terminal

OSH Operated LicenceOSH Interest LicencePetroleum Development LicencePetroleum Retention LicenceLicence ApplicationOil FieldGas FieldOil & Gas FieldProspect (Oil/Gas)Oil PipelineProposed Gas Pipeline

PDL6PDL5

PPL260

APDL14

2010 -12 offshore

programme

2011 Flindersgas test

2011 PPL 234gas test

2011/12 Follow-up sub thrustleads adjacent to

Gobe, Hedinia and Hides.Technical/seismicwork in 2009/10

2010 PPL260Korka gas test

2009/10 Wasuma oil testwith sub-thrust test

Cobra sub-thrust success

2011 Barikewa Deepgas test

2010/11 Huriagas test

2011/12 distalfoldbelt oil play

CSG 7 Licences

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CSG Exploration Licences

6°S

142°E20km

141°E 143°E

ELA1725

ELA1726ELA1720

ELA1721

ELA1722

ELA1723

ELA1724

Commitment to spend ~US$5m over two years. Includes drilling several shallow wells and sampling/analysis of coals encountered

Existing well data is sparse, however, wells have encountered thick coals in the shallow Era Formation

Oil Search holds 100% in all seven licences

Awarded seven Mineral Exploration Licences in Strickland Basin (Western Province) of PNG (CSG exploration governed by Mining Act in PNG, licences administered by Mineral Resources Authority)Covers large area – 17,500 square kilometresOSH to investigate potential for Coal Seam Gas production from Pliocene coals present in basin

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Comparison to QLD CSG Region

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MENA Exploration

Sana’a Office

Dubai OfficeLibya

Tunisia

Yemen

Iraq

Block 3, Tubb’a(drilling ahead)

Tajerouine

Le Kef

Area 18, LibyaCaliph well (drilling ahead)

Shakal 1(testing)

Block 7, Al Meashar2H09

K42 Block

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Oil Discovery at Shakal 1, Kurdistan

Well reached TD (3,038 metres) in August having drilled all primary targets Strong hydrocarbon kicks in secondary target while drillingThis interval (Jaddala-Aalije) being testedFirst test interval of 40 ft flowed oil at up to 750 bopd on 13/64” choke Results of test of second 40 ft interval and third interval (dueshortly) will be analysed to determine appraisal programme

Oil Search has been closely involved in testing operationsAppraisal may involve further seismic or a well in 2010

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Libya – Caliph-1

Caliph is a frontier wild-cat testing proven and new plays offshore LibyaExxon, Hess, BP, NOEX all drilling in areaWell has encountered difficult drilling conditions due to high pressure and high gasHas had to be sidetracked twiceNow close to second of four target intervalsHigh hydrocarbon gas levels, with wet components are encouraging Logs being run to evaluate shows

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Block K42 KurdistanSeismic Option Agreement with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over Block K42 in North-East IraqK42 block covers 511 square kilometres and lies in south-eastern section of Zagros Fold Belt adjacent to Pulkhana oil discovery and Kor Mor gas condensate field, under developmentAlso along structural trend from Jambur field, currently producing with reserves of approximately 1 billion barrels of oil

Initial option period of 18 months. OSH (75%) will acquire 200 km 2D seismic data, commencing early in 2010Government has awarded 3rd

party interest to ShamaranPetroleum Corp (Lundin)At end of option period, OSH has option to sign full Production Sharing Contract75% interest in option agreement will convert to net 40% interest in any future PSCK42 seismic acquisition to commence early in 2010

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PNG LNG transforms OSH’s production outlook

1. Deliver PNG LNG

Project

2. Project Build,

Positioningfor Growth

3. Project Completion, Delivering Growth

2009 2010-2013 2014+

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Oil P

rod

uct

ion

(b

op

d)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

LNG Liquids

LNG Gas

PNG Development

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Summary

Oil Search on the cusp of major growth and corporate refocus

Is in an excellent position to deliver sustained growth:

Strong balance sheet

−>US$430m cash, with undrawn facility for US$391m, plus likely sale proceeds from oil and LNG interests

Delivery of PNG LNG T1 and T2 first priority

Strategic review has identified further growth potential, with activities action plan to deliver

Focus will move to appraisal and exploration post PNG LNG sanction

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O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D