JP. Favennec Director - Centre for Economics and Management IFP School Institut français du...
-
Upload
alexis-mathews -
Category
Documents
-
view
212 -
download
0
Transcript of JP. Favennec Director - Centre for Economics and Management IFP School Institut français du...
JP. FavennecDirector - Centre for Economics and Management
IFP SchoolInstitut français du pétrole
Africa in the new oil geopolitics
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
PETROLEUM WORLDWIDE IN 2002
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Source : BP Statistical Review
* Nuclear and hydroelectricity
Electricity*
Gas
Oil
Coal
Mtoe
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
WORLD RESERVES (1.1.2003)
Source : BP Statistical Review, CEA, IFP / DSEP
COAL +LIGNITE
(109 toe)(1) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 80 $/kg(2) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 130 $/kg(3) Present technology (Pressurised Water Reactor)(4) Recoverable(5) R/P: Proven Reserves/Production ratio
NON-CONVENTIONAL
Proven
Yet to bediscovered
Enhancedrecovery
In place
LIQUIDHYDROCARBONS
NATURALGAS
URANIUM (3)
Probable
Possibles 2800
ProvenProven
22,7 (1)39,5 (2)
600
532
143
120
143
100
100
80
R/P = 41 (5)
R/P = 61
R/P = 204
R/P = 65
(4)
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
THE PLACE OF AFRICA IN THE WORLD OIL RESERVES
Source: BP Statistical Review
(Proven oil reserves as at 1st January 2003)
CIS7.5%
Indonesia0,5%
Oceania3.2%
Europe1.8%
North Africa3.9%
West Africa3.2%
Venezuela7.4%
TOTAL : 143 Gt
Canada0.7% USA
2.9%
Mexico1.2%
* includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen
Middle East*64.9%
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
Février 2004
ESTIMATED PROVEN RESERVES AND PRODUCTIONFOR MAJOR AFRICAN OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES
Proven Reserves (Mb)
Production (Mb/d)
Libya 36 000
11 300Algeria
Egypt
Sudan
3 700
1,48
25 000Nigeria
563
1,86
2,12
5 400Angola
0,92
0,62
Gabon0,30
2 500
Congo
Equatorial Guinea
1 5000,26
1 1000,18
9000,18
Chad
0,12Source: BP Statistical Review, EIA, Oil & Gas Journal
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004Source : BP Stat. Review
CRUDE PRICE VARIATION
1861-1944: USA average, 1945-1985: Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura, 1986-2002: Brent Spot
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
(1875) Rockefeller
Period of control by
Rockefeller
(1911) Dissolutionof Standard Oil
(1928) Achnacarryagreement
(1960) Foundation of OPEC
(1973) Yom Kippur war
(1979) Iranianrevolution (1990)
Irak/Kuwait
war
$ 2002
$ current
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
OIL PRICES REFERENCES
Production costs $ 3 - 15 / bbl
Break even price for international oil companies $ 20 / bbl
Price to meet producing countries budget requirement $ 20 - 25 / bbl
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
90
135
165
165
1120125
80
290
80
MAIN OIL FLOWS IN 2000 (Mt)
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004Source: BP Statistical Review, Energy Information Administration
EVOLUTION OF AFRICA’S SHARE IN WORLD CRUDE OIL
PRODUCTION
Africa
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Europe & Eurasia
S. & Cent. America
North America
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1975 2000 2025
5047 b/d
(9,0 %)
7803 b/d
(10,5 %)
13690 b/d
(12,2 %)
Thousands barrels per day
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
USATotal imports = 9 646From Africa = 1 466
838
113
131
361
23
Nigeria
Algeria
Angola
Gabon
Congo
MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE USA IN 2003 (‘000 b/d)
Source: Energy Information Administration
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
EuropeanUnion
Total imports = 9 652From Africa = 1 806
325
Egypt
Angola
Gabon
Congo
MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2002
(‘000 b/d)
Source: European Commission
Algeria
Libya
74575
375
Nigeria Cameroo
n
164
122
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO ASIA IN 2002 (‘000 b/d)
OECDAsia Pacific(2)
Total imports = 6 738From Africa = 331
162
93 66
10 Angola
Gabon
Nigeria
Source: International Energy Agency, China OGP
Other Africa
(1) 2001 data(2) OECD Asia Pacific includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea
China(1)
Total imports = 1 209From Africa = 272
Sudan
76
100
96 Other Africa
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
SHARE OF HYDROCARBONS IN THE ECONOMY OF
AFRICAN COUNTRIES - 2002* -
AF021 - April 2004
ANGOLA
CAMEROON
CONGO
GABON
NIGERIA
EQUAT. GUINEA
90
60
94
81
95
90
45
5
67
73
40
86
Country % of GDP % of exports % of revenus
90
20
80
60
83
61
* EstimatesSource : ,CRS, World Bank, IMF, CIA World Factbook 2002, EIA
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and ExhibitionMarrakech, April 26-30 2004
KEY PRODUCING ZONES
Gulf of Mexico
CaspianArea
West Africa3
Gb27 Gb
30 Gb