Joseph W. Glauber International Food Policy Research ...
Transcript of Joseph W. Glauber International Food Policy Research ...
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Whither Multilateralism?
Joseph W. GlauberInternational Food Policy Research InstituteAdelaide4 March 2016
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Growth in global agricultural trade
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Source: WTO
Launch of Doha Round
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Growth of South-South Ag Exports
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South-South North-South
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Source: UNCTAD
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Growing share of developing country exports go to
other developing markets
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Exports to Developed Markets Exports to Developing Markets
Bil USD
Source: UNCTAD
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Largest Developing Country Exporters
2013 ExportsBillion USD
Change from 2009 Share to Developing Markets
Brazil 84.6 +59% 66%
China 46.1 +65% 56%
India 41.8 +188% 79%
Argentina 40.6 +50% 74%
Indonesia 34.7 +67% 68%
Thailand 32.7 +53% 67%
Malaysia 26.5 +47% 76%
Mexico 22.0 +52% 12%
Ukraine 16.1 +83% 59%
Turkey 16.1 +58% 56%
World 1,502.7 +49% 39%
Source: Flake and Flake (2015) and UNCTAD (2015)
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Doha Development Agenda, RIP
• 2001: Launch post 9/11
• 2003: Cancun ministerial => emergence of G20/G33/C4
• 2004: Framework Agreement => tradeoffs (CCPs for SSM/SP)
• 2005: Hong Kong ministerial => elimination of export subsidies
• 2006: Geneva meltdown => EU market access v US domestic support
• 2007: G4 process => Potsdam (EU/US v BZ/India)
• 2008: July ministerial => breakup over SSM (India v US)
• 2013: Bali ministerial => trade facilitation; public stockholding
• 2015: Nairobi ministerial => export competition
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Nairobi Package
• Export subsidies eliminated– Developed countries: 2020– Developing countries: 2023– Dvlping use of marketing and internal transportation subsidies (Art 9.4): 2028– Volume standstill based on average of previous 5 years
• Export credits—repayment period restricted to 18 months– Developed: end of 2017– Developing: end of 2020
• Food aid– Best efforts on cash versus in kind
• State Trading Enterprises– Best efforts
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Nairobi Package
• Special Safeguard Mechanism– Recognizes right of developing countries to have SSM (HK ministerial)– Committee on Agriculture will have special session to discuss
• Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes– Reaffirmed Bali declaration—peace clause for stockholding practices; vulnerable to SCM
challenge– Permanent solution to be found by MC11 (2017)
• Cotton– Market access—Developed and developing countries “in position to do so”: duty
free/quota free access to LDCs– Domestic support—recognize efforts to reform policies; more to be done– Export competition—immediate phase out for dvlpd; by 2017 for dvlpng
• Market Access—• Domestic support—
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Impact of DDA reduction formula on applied tariff
rates
Most market access gains concentratedin key developed countries
Minimal access in developing countries due to high tariff binding overhang
Source: Laborde 2014.
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Tari
ff R
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Implementation Year
Japan’s Beef (Chilled/Frozen) Import Tariffs
But, far from comprehensive
• Sensitive products remain protected under TPP
– Dairy
– Sugar
– Rice
• More access for SeP under Rev4?
– Limited tariff lines
– TRQs
DDA v TPP
WTO bound
Current applied
TPP (-82%)
DDA (-57%)
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• Labor
• Environment
• Cross border services trade
• E-commerce
• SPS
• Dispute settlement
• GMO approvals
• SPS harmonization
• Growth hormones
• Geographical indications
“Deep” agreements => standardization and
harmonization of standards
TPP TTIP
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Domestic support levels
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1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Producer Subsidy Equivalentas percent of value of farm production
Source: OECD
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Composition of domestic support
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1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
OECD Average
Tied to output Tied to inputs Decoupled from production
Source: OECD
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Producer Subsidy Equivalents
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PSE Coupled PSE
Source: OECD, calculations by author
Percent of value of production
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Composition of Domestic Support2014
Source: OECD
percent
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Brazil Russia Mexico China Turkey Indonesia Korea
Output Input other coupled decoupled
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World
Growth of Agricultural Insurance ProgramsPremium volume
Source: Glauber 2015
$ billion
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China US
Source: Glauber 2015
$ billion
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China corn support
Source: Gale 2015
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China corn
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Source: USDA, PSD database
Thous ha Thou tonnes
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Estimated change in outlays, FY 2014-23, by WTO
classification under 2014 farm bill
-50-40-30-20-10
01020
$ billion
Green Amber
Net change:Green: - $52.8 bilAmber: +$32.3 bil
Source: Glauber and Westhoff 2016
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Implications for the WTO
• Do new mega-regionals establish standards for global trade?
• Multi-lateralize mega-regionals?
– Expansion to TPP: Indonesia, Philippines, Korea, …
– China? India??
– Brazil
– LDCs
• If inclusive, brought into the WTO
• If exclusive, does WTO primary role becomes dispute resolution?
• What if TPP fails to be ratified?
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With no agreement on domestic support, dispute settlement
likely venue for addressing adverse trade effects
• US—Upland Cotton
• US—Country of Origin Labeling
• 2014 farm bill:
– Peanuts
– Soybeans
– ARC/PLC for cottonseed
• Developing country subsidies