José Mourinho. Chelsea FC ManagerBBC Online. February 20th 2005

Plenty of evidence from the past Tiny changes in environment capable of triggering hazardous geological phenomena Climate change is already starting to affect the solid Earth Modelling suggests more to come

1. Looking back

2. Where are we now?

3. Looking ahead

4. The last straw

Temperature rise fastest for 11,500y 2000 – 2010 hottest decade on record after 1990s Within 1ºC of highest Temperatures for ~ 1 million years Carbon dioxide levels highest for 15 million years

2º C

0.8º C

1.34º C

º

2º C

280

387

450

ppm CO2

Where next?

Dangerous Climate Change (DCC) threshold?

387

450

280

387

450

280

387

450

ppm CO2

280

387

450

ppm CO2

280

387

450

Where next?

450

Where next?

387

450

Where next?

280

387

450

Where next?

280

387

450

Where next?

DCC threshold may be well below 450 ppm

UK Met Office study:

only 20% chance that holdinglevels at 450 ppm would prevent a 2º C rise

ppm CO2

280

387

450

Where next?

400ppm

Medium emissions scenario (A1B)

© Crown copyright Met Office

© Crown copyright Met OfficeTemperature change (°C): 2090s compared to 1990s

Temperatures up 6°C or so Cold, arid climate replaced by

warmer, wetter, conditions 52 million cubic kilometres of

water shifted from ice sheets into ocean basins

2 -3km thick ice sheets melted at high latitudes

130m load added to ocean basins

Mass change lengthened day by 4 seconds

Depressed

crust

Rising magma

Active fault

Going

down

Going up

Pärvie Fault (northern Sweden)

Stuoragurra Fault (northern Norway) Basel 1356

New Madrid 1811-12

The great Storegga landslide

Continental

ice sheets Ocean

basins

52 million cubic km

of water Action zone

San Andreas (California)Vesuvius

High Andes (Chile)

Massif Central (France)

Bering glacier

Bagley Ice Field

Mount Steller

Kolka (Russia) 2002

Iceland uplift

Vatnajökull Ice Cap

BardabungaÖraefajökull

Snow-capped volcanoes

Coastal volcanoes

Tropical volcanoes

Etna

Casita

Sollipulli

Rainier

Less of this? Japan 2011

More of this? Haiti 2010

Imja Tsho Nepal

Rock dam

Lake Sarez

Lake volume: 16 cubic km People threatened: 5.5 million

Tajikistan

Montserrat eruptions: rainfall Japanese earthquakes: snow

Taiwan tremors: typhoonsPavlof: sea level

More eruptions occur from November to March

Attributed to seasonal redistributions of water mass

Climate change is set to be severe

Global emissions up 58% since 1990

No real action until 2020 at least

10 – 30 years to save Greenland Ice Sheet

Geological havoc added to climate chaos?

16 DEGREES C

EARLY MAY BANK HOLIDAY (May 1st – 4th)

Thursday, May 1st QUESTION TIME

(HOW) CAN WE TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE? Question the experts and air your own views

Friday, May 2nd – Sunday 4th

TALKING IN TWOS evening programme. Listen to some of the country’s top climate change

experts and communicators: Fred Pearce, Mayer Hillman, Tim Lenton, Bob Ward,

Mike Berners-Lee, Mark Maslin

Saturday, May 3rd

SCHOOLS & FAMILIES DAY

Stalls, activities, demonstrations, wild food walks, horse-drawn canal boat rides, music,

art and lots more

FULL PROGRAMME @ www.cromfordmills.org.uk