JORDAN POST-ELECTION PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY April 10 Survey of... · jordan post-election public...
Transcript of JORDAN POST-ELECTION PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY April 10 Survey of... · jordan post-election public...
JORDAN POST-ELECTION PUBLIC
OPINION SURVEY March 4-7, 2013
MIDDLE EAST MARKETING AND
RESEARCH CONSULTANTS (MEMRC)
MEMRC
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Methodology
• This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by the Middle East Marketing and
Research Consultants on behalf of the International Republican Institute.
• The national representative survey was carried out from March 4-7, 2013. The eligibility criteria was based on age (18 years of age or older). A sample of 1,000 individuals were interviewed face-to-face in their homes.
• The sample design was a multi-stage cluster sample:
– Stage One: Break country into 100 clusters distributed among Jordan’s 12 governorates based on the 2004 Housing and Population Census for the selection of 100 clusters across the Kingdom.
– Stage Two: Select 10 households from each cluster in a random fashion based on settlement population while ensuring representation of different parts of the cluster in the sample. The Nyman allocation approach was used to distribute the sample of clusters among governorates.
• Ten households were drawn (with replacement allowing for non-contacts) from each cluster using a random start and a systematic procedure of selection to ensure representation of different parts of the cluster in sample and to reduce intra-class correlation.
• Researchers conducted one in-person interview per household, selected using the Kish method.
• The response rate for the survey was 98 percent.
• The margin of error for the survey does not exceed + 2.5 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.
• Figures in charts and tables may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
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Region Governorates
North Irbid
Jerash
Ajloun
Mafraq
Center Amman
Zarqa
Balqa
Madaba
South Karak
Tafileh
Ma’an
Aqaba
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March 2013
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Survey Demographics
Gender
Male 50%
Female 50%
Geographic Location
North 28%
Center 64%
South 8%
Urban 80%
Rural 20%
Age Groups
18-24 16%
25-34 26%
35-44 23%
45+ 35%
Education
Less than secondary 38%
Secondary 34%
Higher than secondary 28%
Employment Status
Working 42%
Not working 58%
Household Total Monthly Income
Less than 250 JOD 22%
250 – 499 JOD 51%
500 – 999 JOD 19%
1000 + JOD 5%
Not sure 1%
Refused to answer 2%
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March 2013
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General State of Affairs
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March 2013
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48%
71%
57% 58%
65%
43%
58% 60%
43%
32%
44%
24%
34% 35%
28%
49%
29% 26%
45%
59%
0%
40%
80%
JUL 05 DEC 05 MAY 06 MAR 07 AUG 07 AUG 08 AUG 09 JUN 11 JUL 12 MAR 13
Right direction Wrong direction
In general, are things in Jordan going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
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March 2013
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
High prices Corruption Poor economic
conditions
Syrian refugees Unemployment No reform
12%
30%
25%
18%
24% 26%
7%
44%
18%
10%
4% 4% 4%
JUN 2011 (n=256) JUL 2012 (n=445) MAR 2013 (n=586)
Why do you think Jordan is going in the wrong
direction? (Open-ended)
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents who believe the country is going in the wrong direction**
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0%
20%
40%
60%
Stability & Security Political & Economic
reform
Hashemite leadership Improving economy Fighting corruption
57%
17%
10%
3%
46%
7% 6%
20%
50%
17%
8% 6% 5%
JUN 2011 (n=595) JUL 2012 (n=427) MAR 2013 (n=315)
What is the main reason for considering Jordan is going in the right direction? (Open-ended)
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents who believe the country is going in the right direction**
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Independent Electoral Commission
and Parliament
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March 2013
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To what degree do you believe that the Independent Election Commission, instead of the Ministry of Interior, was able to ensure having fair and transparent elections?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know I have not
heard of the
IEC
20%
35%
13%
22%
11%
1%
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March 2013
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To what degree were you satisfied with the voter registration process of the latest parliamentary elections?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know Refused to
answer
34% 34%
10% 12%
10%
1%
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March 2013
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To what degree were you satisfied with the voting process of the latest parliamentary elections?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know Refused to
answer
33% 33%
11% 12% 11%
1%
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March 2013
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To what degree were you satisfied with the vote counting process of the latest parliamentary elections?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know Refused to
answer
21%
30%
13%
19% 17%
1%
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March 2013
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To what degree were you satisfied with the result announcement process of the latest parliamentary elections?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know Refused to
answer
19%
29%
14%
24%
14%
1%
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March 2013
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In your opinion what are the top three issues the new parliament should start to tackle? (Open-ended)
0%
10%
20%
30%
Curb prices Fight
corruption
Fight
unemployment
Improve
economic
conditions
Fight poverty Increase wages Lower fuel
prices
25%
17% 17%
8%
5% 5% 3%
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March 2013
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Is there one parliamentarian or more who you believe will represent your opinion, concerns or needs in the newly elected parliament?
Yes
31%
No
60%
Do not
know
9%
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March 2013
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To what degree do you believe vote buying was widespread in the recent parliamentary elections?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know
27% 25%
14%
20%
13%
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March 2013
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To what extent do you think vote buying influenced the election’s outcome?
0%
20%
40%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Vote buying
was not
widespread
Do not know
32%
21%
9%
3%
20%
14%
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March 2013
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Will you follow the work of the newly elected parliament? If yes, through what means?
Yes
43%
No
53%
Do not
know
5%
n=425
36%
37%
43%
46%
47%
97%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Radio
Internet
Newspapers
Friends
Family
Television
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March 2013
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For how long do you think the newly elected parliament will stay in office?
12%
14%
25%
19%
10%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Do not know
Less than 6 months
6 - 12 months
1 to 2 years
2 to 3 years
Full 4 years
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March 2013
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Was your name registered in the voter registry for the recent parliamentary elections?
Yes
73%
No
27%
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March 2013
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Did you vote in the recent parliamentary elections that were held on January 23, 2013? What was the main reason for you not to participate?
21%
4%
5%
5%
8%
11%
20%
26%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Other
Refused to answer
Not convinced in elections
Illness
Elections not fair
No worthwhile candidates
No trust in parliament
Personal reasons
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
Yes
52% No
21%
Not
Registered
27%
**n refers to respondents who were registered but did not vote**
n=206
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Did you write down the name of your chosen local district candidate on the ballot or did you mark “” next to the name of the candidate you chose? (n=516)
Wrote
down
name
32%
Marked
""
68%
Left a
blank
ballot
1%
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents who report having voted**
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To what degree do you believe you were well enough informed about the voting procedures on Election Day? (n=516)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know
51%
35%
10%
4% 1%
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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To what degree did you believe you were well enough informed to make an informed choice when voting for a candidate in your local district where you were registered on Election Day? (n=516)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know
51%
35%
10%
3% 1%
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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To what degree do you believe you were well enough informed to make an informed choice when voting for a national list on Election Day? (n=516)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Large degree Moderate
degree
Little degree Not at all Do not know Did not vote
for a list
34% 34%
15%
11%
1%
6%
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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When did you decide to give your vote to district candidate? (n=516)
1%
2%
7%
11%
16%
20%
43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Left a blank ballot
Do not remember
A day before Election Day
Election Day
During the last four weeks
before Election Day
During the last seven days
before Election Day
More than a month before
Election Day
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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What was the main reason that made you give your vote to that district candidate? (n=510)
3%
3%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
9%
17%
17%
25%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Do not know
Other
Tested former member of parliament
Suitable person
National duty
Election program
Efficiency
Personal acquaintance
Trust in candidate
For services the candidate renders
Honesty/Integrity
Tribal/Relation/From same area as me
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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When did you decide to give your vote to a national list? (n=516)
13%
2%
10%
12%
20%
21%
23%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Left a blank paper
Do not remember
A day before Election Day
During the last four weeks
before Election Day
During the last seven days
before Election Day
Election Day
More than a month before
Election Day
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March 2013
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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What was the main reason that made you give your vote to that national list? (n=451)
2%
13%
6%
2%
2%
3%
5%
7%
8%
8%
9%
9%
10%
16%
0% 10% 20%
Refused to answer
Do not know
Other
Husband asked me
Promises to improve conditions
Random choice
Islamists
Helps people
Two votes
Convinced with list
Good reputation
Personal acquaintance
Election program
Tribal/Relation/From the same area as me
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents who report having voted for a national list**
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Were you offered any amount of money in order for you to give your vote to a local district candidate? (n=516) Was the offer made by one or more district candidates? And were you offered anything in kind (such as heaters, blankets, etc..) in order for you to give your vote to a local district candidate? (n=516)
Yes
7%
No
93%
Money offered by district candidate
37%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
By one candidate
By more than one
Money offered
3%
97%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Yes
No
Goods offered by district candidate
n=38
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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Were you offered any amount of money in order for you to give your vote to a national list? (n=516) And were you offered anything in kind (such as heaters, blankets etc..)? (n=516)
Yes
1%
No
99%
Money offered by national list
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
No
99%
Yes
1%
Goods offered by a national list
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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4%
7%
7%
7%
8%
27%
96%
93%
92%
91%
91%
73%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Difficulties in finding the polling station
inside the polling center
Your name was registered in a different center
from the one you went to
Difficulties in reaching the polling center
Unqualified Independent Electoral
Commision staff
Pressure by some candidate(s) or their
representative(s) to vote for them
Crowds and long lines
Yes No Do not remember
On Election Day, did you encounter any of the following situations? (n=516)
Jordan National Poll
March 2013
**n refers to respondents report having voted**
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MIDDLE EAST MARKETING AND
RESEARCH CONSULTANTS (MEMRC)