Jon D. EricksonJon D. EricksonRubenstein School of EnvironmentRubenstein School of Environment

and Natural Resourcesand Natural ResourcesUniversity of VermontUniversity of Vermont

We Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking LotWe Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking LotEconomic, Social, and EcologicalEconomic, Social, and EcologicalImplications of Incremental ChoiceImplications of Incremental Choice

The Tyranny of Small DecisionsFEEDBACK LOOPSFEEDBACK LOOPS

(marginal, and potentially episodic)(marginal, and potentially episodic)

Marginal Land-UseChange

MarginalEconomic Change

IncrementalWatershed Health

Decline

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

pp

m

Chlorides

School Quality

Traffic Congestion

Energy Dependence

Social Networks

Community Services

Out from Under the TyrannyFEEDBACK LOOPSFEEDBACK LOOPS

PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICYPARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY

Watershed HealthLand-Use Changeand Social Context

Biophysical

Land Use

Society

Community

Economy

Firms

Households

Economic Structureand Change

$

Dutchess County, New York

• 2,077 km2, mixed land use• 970 km of named streams • > 132,000 employment pool• IBM = >11,000• SW to NE development gradient• Effective buying income (EBI) ranks 15th in the U.S.

19921992 20012001

% urban/suburban% urban/suburban

% forest% forest

% agricultural% agricultural

WappingersWappingersWatershedWatershed

Historical land use change

19921992 20012001

% urban/suburban

% forest

% agricultural

Fishkill WatershedFishkill Watershed

Historical land use change

Increases in Percentage of Land in Urban and Suburban Uses

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

F01

F02

F03

F04

F05

F06

F07

F08

F09

F10

F11

F12

F13

F14

F15

F16

W01

W02

W03

W04

W05

W06

W07

W08

W09

W10

W11

W12

W13

W14

W15

W16

W17

Pe

rce

nt

ch

an

ge

, 19

92

to

20

01

Increases in urban and suburban land as a percent of subcatchment area, for 33 sites in the Fishkill (designated with F codes) and Wappingers (W codes) watersheds. Code numbers increase with distance upstream.

DM-2

DM-1 DM-3

Alt-1

Alt-3

Alt-2

Group of Decision-MakersGroup of Decision-Makers

CSc

CEv

CEcAlt-1

Alt-3

Alt-2

Individual Decision-MakerIndividual Decision-Maker

GOAL

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv

w1 + w2 + w3 = 1

CSc

CEv

CEcAlt-1

Alt-3

Alt-2

Alternatives

CEc CSc Ecological

CriteriaRelative condition index for Longnose Dace

-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5

Tam

arac

k

F17

Ple

asan

t Val

ley

Eas

t

F15

Dut

ches

s C

o A

irpor

t

Ple

asan

t Val

ley-

MS

T

F08

F14

Gris

tmill

Cre

ek

F04

F13

Upt

on L

ake

Qui

et A

cres

-MS

T

F03

Col

d S

prin

g C

reek

Sta

nfor

d R

ec_M

ST

F12

Hun

ns L

ake

Red

Oak

Mill

-MS

T

F01

F11

Littl

e W

appi

nger

s

F02

E B

ranc

h W

app

Gre

at S

prin

g

F07

-A

stu

den

tize

d r

esid

ual

s o

f N

L

esti

mat

ion

+/- s.e.

Chemistry follows land use

But, biotic responses

very noisy!

Land Use Alternatives

CEc Social

Criteria

CEv

Census

by Block, Tract, Town, Zip . . .

Business Point

Tax Parcel

Alternatives

Economic

Criteria

CSc CEv

GOVERMENTGOVERMENT

OUTSIDEOUTSIDEWORLDWORLD

CAPITALCAPITALExportsExports

ImportsImports INDUSTRYINDUSTRY

HOUSEHOLDSHOUSEHOLDS

DepreciationDepreciation

InvestmentInvestment

ConsumptionConsumptionGoodsGoodsLaborLabor

Private GoodsPrivate Goods& Services& Services

PublicPublicServicesServices

Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3

Stock

C1

C2

Out

In

Socio-Economic Sub-Model

GIS Land-Use Sub-Model

EcosystemSub-Model

Sectoral_Economic_Decline

Land_Demand

Growth

Land_Reclamation

Ecosystem_Impact

Scenerios

Scenerios

Land_Biophysical_Characteristics

Land_Use_Location

Land_Use_Type Land_Biophysical_Characteristics

Land_Development_Loading Aquatic_Dynamics

Physicochemical_Parameters

Biotic_Integrity Functional_Integretity

Ecosystem_Impact

Storm_Events Water_Flow

Building

Land_Built

Land_Demand

Sectoral_Economic_Growth

SAM_Multipliers

Scenerios

Loss

Population

Land_Use_Location

Land_Use_Type

Buildable_Land

Land_Use_Zoning

Geophysical_Attibutes

Real_Estate_Attributes

Total_Land_Inventory

Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis

Watershed Health

SustainableSustainableSCALESCALE

Land-Use Change

and Social Context

Biophysical

Land Use

Society

Community

Economy

Firms

Households

Individuals

EquitableEquitableDISTRIBUTIONDISTRIBUTION

Economic Structure

and Change

EfficientEfficientALLOCATIONALLOCATION

GOAL

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv