Joint GWP CEE/DMCSEE training: Drought management principles in UK by Trevor Bishop

© Crown copyright Met Office

Rachael Connerton, Water Resources Policy Advisor

Trevor Bishop: Deputy Director Environment

Agency

3 October 2014

DMCSEE/GWP CEE capacity build training

From monitoring to end user

Environment Agency: Drought Management


The Environment Agency: Who we are and what we do!

Preserving Water Security

Public water supply 50%

Other industry 6%

Fish farming, cress 7%

Other 3%

Hydropower (non

consumptive) 32%

Other Electricity production

(consumptive) 2%

Our Water Account: Recent Performance

Water companies abstracted

15,500 Ml/d. Nearly 500 Ml/d,

or about 3%, less than

previous year

Total abstraction for the calendar year 2011 from non-tidal surface water and groundwater sources in England and Wales (source Environment Agency) Total abstraction for the calendar year 2011 from non-tidal surface water and groundwater sources in England and Wales (source Environment Agency)

Draft:

Total abstraction for the calendar year 2011 from non-tidal surface

water and groundwater sources in England and Wales

Total abstraction for the calendar year 2011 from non-tidal surface water and groundwater sources in England and Wales (source Environment Agency)

Water Risk and Finance

• Demand reduced by approximately 2%

compared with the previous year.

• Overall demand shows a consistent

reduction of about 1% a year since 2006.

• From 2003 a small but consistent

average decline in pcc of about 1% each

year.

• Average pcc now 146 l/p/d (2% or 3

litres less than previous year)

• An 18% difference between measured

and unmeasured pcc (129 –v- 155)

• Average leakage per property in

England and Wales has dropped by 7%

to 127 l/prop/d.

Our Water Account: Recent Performance

Total abstraction for the calendar year 2011 from non-tidal surface water and groundwater sources in England and Wales (source Environment Agency)

[t1]Interesting number, can we just confirm that its 127 l/prop/d. It’s the same as metered pcc?

Draft: The main components of PWS

demand between April 2011 and March

2012


Water Account: Pressures

Planning for long term water efficiency

Typical Catchment Balance in

the SE England


Status of Water

Resources



Statutory Drought Planning


• Environment Agency Area

Drought Plans

• Water Company Drought

Plans

• Environment Agency

National Drought Plan

• Central and local

government Contingency

Plans

Water resources information 7 July 2014

These slides outline the risk of a developing drought this year and show how it is managed

The information is for the use by the Environment Agency.

National Drought Coordinator

Drought Management -

Illustrative Example

WR Information – 2 July 2014

9

Context – Public Water Supply and Drought

• Water Company Water Resource Management Plans (WRMP) is

a strategic 25 year view of Water Company’s area aiming to

enable cost effective security of supply under normal conditions –

WRMP are a Statutory process signed-off by the Secretary of

State.

• Water Company Drought Plans (DP) set out timely actions for

security of supply under periods of low rainfall. Actions typically

escalate through encouraging voluntary customers reductions,

mandatory customers restrictions and relaxing environmental

protections to allow access to additional resources.

• The transition between normal operation and drought (resilience)

is set between each water company and the level of service for its

customers which is then endorsed by the Secretary of State

through the WRMP and DP process and plans.

3


10

Context – Role of the Environment Agency

Water resources pressures and drought management

• Monitor/assess hydrological, hydrogeological and

environmental status

• Report on water resource/drought status against indicators

• Advise and help coordinate abstractors, other stakeholders

and government on appropriate actions

• Enforce licence conditions against predefined triggers

• Manage and operate site specific river augmentation

schemes to support abstractions and the environment (e.g.

Shropshire Groundwater Scheme)

• Active environmental management to mitigate impacts of

pressures


11

Monthly water situation report – June 2014

• Total rainfall for hydrological areas across England to 30 June

Classed relative to respective historic totals.

Final and provisional NCIC (National Climate Information Centre)

Source: Met Office © Crown Copyright, 2014. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2014


12

Daily mean river flow for 01/07/2014 expressed as a percentile and classed relative to an analysis of historic daily mean flows for the same time of year

Percentiles presented relate to an analysis for the time of year and not a whole year.

Source: Environment Agency. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2014

Weekly River Flow Week ending 01/07/2014

Probabilistic

13 Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites up until the end of September 2014.

Probabilistic ensemble projections

of groundwater levels at key

indicator sites at the end of

September 2014.

Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the groundwater

level at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year.

Source: Environment Agency. Geological map

reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS ©

NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency,

100026380, 2014

Pie charts indicate probability, based on

climatology, of the surface water flow at each site

being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year.

Source: Centre for Ecology and

Hydrology, Environment Agency


14

Current WR situation in Cumbria • Over 30 mm rain in catchments

between 4 and 6 July

• Both reservoirs recovered within

normal ranges

• Both sources rely on river flow and/or

rainfall inflows to sustain levels.

• Ennerdale catchment responds quickly

to rainfall but it is required locally

• June rainfall in local area is 44% (LTA)

• 3 month (March to May LTA)

regional rainfall is 102%


15

Timetable of management actions

UU

Drought

Plan (2013)

Triggers

Ennerdale

(earliest expected

based on 1 July draw

down levels)

Actions Hawes-water Additional actions to

Ennerdale actions

1 23 June (actual) .

NOTE: Lake level now

above trigger 1 (at 7

July)

Convene drought teams,

enhanced efficiency and

monitoring

24 June

(actual)

Rezoning of sources,

increase pumping from

other sources

2 12 days after trigger 1 Rezoning, voluntary

water use restraints,

Unlikely this

year

Review use of other

sources, continued

rezoning

3 9 days after trigger 2 Apply for drought order,

commence tankering

(Ennerdale only)

Unlikely this

year

Apply for drought permits,

use alternative and off line

sources

4 13 days after trigger 3

Followed by DO (asap)

Apply compulsory

restrictions (TUBs)

followed by use of

drought order

Unlikely this

year

As Ennerdale

EA Drought status Environment Agency Actions

Developing drought

(internal status)

Not required Convene drought teams and strategic

governance, start situation reporting, prepare

comms strategy

Drought Not required Respond to drought order/permit applications,

enhanced monitoring, reporting and comms


16

Forward look

• Recovering situation as reservoirs return within normal range for time of year due to significant rainfall

• Local area teams maintain close monitoring on levels and situation over summer

• Local and national leads review response to identify lessons for future preparedness

• UU, Defra and EA resume weekly telecons on IROPI and EIP preparation


17

Draft Rolling Map example

• Worked with WUK on the maps and definitions

• Uses area or smaller boundaries for drought status and water supply zones for water use restrictions

• Worked with WUK on the maps and definitions

• For use on gov.uk, social media and host websites

Drought mapping

and comms

1976 Drought - standpipes

2004-07 South East drought

Legislation

• Pre-1945 Byelaws

• 1945 Water Act, Section 16

• Water Industry Act, 1991, Section 76

• Water Resources Act 1991 (amended by Environment Act 1995 and Water Act 2003) – Sections 73 - 81

• Flood and Water Management Act 2010

• Drought Direction 2011 affecting the 'non-essential uses'

Water use restrictions – new provisions

• New legislation commenced on 1 Oct 2010:

• Flood and Water Management Act 2010

• Water Use (Temporary Bans) Order 2010 (detail and definitions)

• Water companies can restrict and/or prohibit more types of water use during a drought.

• Replaces the hosepipe bans from the Water Industry Act

• New powers – in response to 2004-07 drought

• Reduces the need for non-essential use drought orders

• Watering gardens and non-commercial plants using a hosepipe

• Cleaning private motor vehicles or boats with hosepipe

• Filling and maintaining domestic swimming pools, ponds or ornamental fountain

• Drawing water for domestic recreational use

• Cleaning domestic walls, windows, paths and patios or any other outdoor surface using hosepipe

What’s covered?

Water demand patterns 1995

Our guidance - example

Our role

• Planning

• Drought planning

• Regulation of water companies

• Active drought management

• Drought permits / orders

Drought management – head office

• Communications

• Co-ordination of communications, internal and external

• Requests for information by Chief Executive, Defra, Ministers

• Increase in press interest and from other organisations such as NFU

• National briefings

• Weekly one message briefings – cabinet office and Defra

• Support to the regions

• Drought permits

• Advice and guidance

Drought management – Areas, NPS

• Area

• Monitoring of environment

• Reporting and responding to

impacts

• Enforcement on abstraction

licences

• Local direct communications

• National Permitting Centre/Support

• Determine drought permits

• Manage objections and support any hearing

The Environmental Drought

Develops

Normal Jet stream

Drought Jet stream

28



Drought 2010 - 12


2010 – 2012 River flow, groundwater and reservoir summary over 24 months

River flow

Groundwater

Reservoir

Stacked bars show proportion of indicator sites in different categories: exceptionally high, notably high, above normal, normal, below normal, notably low, exceptionally low for different months from June 2010 to July 2012

C A B A C B C C A D D B B A C A C D B A D E A A A A

D A B A C B C C B D D C B B C A C D B C D E A A A A

D A B B D C D C B D D C C B C A D D B C D E B A A A

D A C B D C D C B D D D C C C A D D B D D E B A A A

D B C B D C D C C D D D C C C A D D C D D E B A A A

D B C C D D D D C E D D C C C B D D C D D E B A A A

D B C C D D D D C E D D D C C C D D C D D E B A A A

D B C C D D D D C E D D D C D C D D C D D E B B A A

D B C C D D D D C E D D D C D C D D C D D E C B A A

D B C C D D D D C E D D D C D C D D C D D F C B A A

D C C C D D E D C E E E D C D C D E C D D F C B A A

D D C C D D E D C E E E D C D C D E C D D F C B A A

D D C C D D E D C E E E D C D D D E C D E F C B A A

D D D C D D E D D E E E D D D D D E D D E F C B A A

D D D D D D E D D E E E D D D D D E D D E F C B A A




D D D D D D E D D E E E D D D D D E D D E F D B A A

D D D D D D F D D E E E D D D D D E D D E F D B A A

D D D D D D F D D E E E D D D D D F D D E F D B A A

D D D D D D F D D E F E D D D D E F D D E G D B A A

D D D D D D F D D E F F D D D D E F D E E G D B A A

E D D D D D F D D E F F D D D D E F D E E G D B A A

E D D D D D F D D E F F D D D D E F E E E G D B A A

E D D D D D F D D E F F D D D D E F E E F G D C A A

E D D D D D F D D E F F E D D E E F E E F G D C A A

E D D D D D G D D E F F E D D E E F E E F G D C A A

E D D D D D G D D E F F E D E E E F E E F G D C B A

E E D D D D G D D F F F E D E E E F F E F G D C B A

E E D D D D G D D F F F E D E E F F F E F G D C B A

E E D D D D G D D F F G E E E E F F F E F G D C B A

E E D D D D G D D F F G E E E E F F F E F G D C B A

E E D D D D G D D F G G F E E E F G F F F G D C B A

E E D D D D G D D F G G F E E E F G F F G G D C B A

F E D D D D G D D F G G F E E E F G F F G G D C B A

F E D D D D G D D F G G F E E E F G F F G G D C B A

F E D D D D G D D F G G F F E E F G F F G G D C B A

F E D D D D G D D F G G F F E E F G F F G G D D B A

F E D D D D G D D G G G F F E E F G F F G G E D C A

F E D D D D G E D G G G F F E E F G F F G G E D C A

G F D D D D G E E G G G F F F F G G F F G G E D C B

G F D D D D G E E G G G F F F F G G F F G G F D C B

G F E E D D G E E G G G G F F F G G G F G G F D C B

G F E E D D G E E G G G G G F F G G G G G G F D D B

G F E E D D G E E G G G G G F G G G G G G G F D D B

G E E E E E E G G G G G G G G G G G G G G D D C

A A B A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A

B B B C C C C C C C C C B B C C B C B C D D B A A A

C B C C D D C C C C D D C D D D C D C C D D B B A A

C C C C D D D C D D D D D D D D D D D C D D D C A A

C C C D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D E D C B A

C D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D E D C B A

D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E F D C B A

D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E F D D C A

D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E F E D C A

D D D D D D D D D D D D D E D D E E E E F F E D C A

D D D D D D D D D D D E E E E D E E F F F F E D C B

D D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E E E F F F F F D D B

D D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E E E F F F F F D D B

D D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E E F F F F F F D D C

D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E E E F F F F F F D D D

D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E E E F F F G G G E D D

D D D D D D D D D D E E E E E E F F F F G G G E E D

D D D D D D E D D D E E E E E E F F F F G G G E E D

D D D D D D E D D D E E E E E E F F F G G G G F E D

D D D D D D E D D D E E E E E E F F F G G G G F E D

D D D D D D E D D E E E E E E E F F G G G G G F E D

D D D D D D E D D E E F E E E F F F G G G G G F E E

D D D D D D E E E E E F F F F F F F G G G G G G E E

D D D D D D E E E E F F F F F F F F G G G G G G F E

D E D D D E F E E E F F F F F F F F G G G G G G F E

E E E E E E F E E F F F F F F F F G G G G G G G F E

E E E E E E F E E F F F F F G G G G G G G G G G F F

E E E E E E F F F F F G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G

F F F F F F G G F G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G

C D C B B A D C A C B C A B A B A A A B A A A B A A

D D C B C C D C A C C C B B B B A C A C A C B B A A

D D C C C C D C C D D D B B C B C C B C C C B B A A

D D D C C C D D C D D D C C C B C C B C C C B B A A

D D D C C C D D C D D D C C C C C D B C C D B C A A

D D D C C C D D C D D D C C C C C D C D C D B C A A

D D D C C C D D C D D D D C D C D D C D C D B C A A

D D D D D D D D C D D D D C D C D D C D C D C C A A

D D D D D D D D C D D E D D D C D D C D C D C C A A

D D D D D D D D C D D E D D D C D D D D C D C C A A

D D D D D D D D D D D E D D D D D D D D D D C C B A

D D D D D D D D D D D E D D D D D D D D D D C C B A

E D D D D D D D D D E E D D D D D D D D D D C C B A

E E D D D D D D D D E E D D D D D D D D D E C C B A

E E D D D D D D D D E E D D D D D E D D D E C C B B

E E D D D D D D D D E E E D D D D E D D D E D D B B

E E D D D D D D D E E E E D D D D E D D D E D D B B



F E D D D D E D D E E F E D D E E E D D D E D D C B

F E D D D D E D D E E F E E E E E E D D E E D D C B

F E D D D D E E D E E F E E E E E E E D E E D D C B

F E E D D D E E D E F F E E E E E E E E E E E D C C

F E E D D D E E D E F F F E E E E E E E E E E D C C

F F E D D E E E E E F F F F E E E E E E E F E D D D

F F E D E E F E E E F F F F E E E E E E F F E D D D

F F E E E E F E E E F F F F E E E F E E F F E D D D

G F E E E E F E E E F G G F F E F F F F F G F E D D

G F E E E E F E E F F G G F F F F G G G G G G E D D

G G F E F E G F F F F G G F G F G G G G G G G E F E

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12


Drought 2010 - 12


“Drought conditions have so badly affected wildlife in some regions that rescue parties have been created to save fish from rapidly disappearing

rivers.”

"Never ever has it dried up this early in the year. It has a terrible effect.”.....”We are running out of rivers to put the

fish in”

Guardian 3 April 2012

Rescue squads sent in to save drought-hit fish

The Environmental Drought

Develops

32



Drought 2010 – 2012

Early April River flows and reservoir levels



Drought 2010/12: What was different?


• Awareness of Resilience

• Political Interest

• Drought Governance

• Water Community

• Media

• Public

'We are facing a severe water shortage‘ The Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman

confirms a drought for the south east of England and warns of impending hosepipe bans.


The Public?

Perception about the current situation (Thames Water Customers)

Water Resources: Secure, Conserve and Prosper


Drought 2010 – 12: PWS Resilience


Gradual Awareness Raising

More Focused Awareness Raising

Temporary Use Bans (LoS)

Drought Permits and Orders

Emergency Drought Orders


Drought: Planning Water Security


• Resilience – we have choices

• Water Resource and Drought Plans

• Planning for today, planning for tomorrow

• Risk and consequences

• Resilience is more than capacity


Looking to the future

Climate Change Population Growth



Climate change scenarios:

Changes in summer flows

Gaps between supply and demand: 2050’s



Planning Water Security


• Drought

• Agreed decision trigger points

• Cross sector coordination

• Media and communications

• Future Drought

• Climate Change adaptation

• Access and allocation

• Supply Resilience

• Demand management

• Environmental resilience

Water Risk and Finance in the 21st Century

Key Actions for the next decade

1. Access and Allocation

2. Water Demand Management

3. Environmental Resilience

4. Drought Management

5. Security of Supply – Resilience

• Planning Assumption

• Economics


Planning Assumptions: Stochastic hydrology

• A series of rainfall models have now been generated by University of East Anglia & Newcastle University for key catchments across our supply area

• Models are calibrated against historic events producing similar distribution of events

• Running these models allow the generation of much longer drought sequences of rainfall which produce these alternative events to be explored

• These models are also able to take account of climate change factors, therefore we can run them to understand the expected variability of the weather and how this could then change under different climate change scenarios


Wider range of droughts to consider


Use of Economics for Decision Support


• Previously • Financial efficiency - Least cost, just in time

approach

• Future • Compound/Deep uncertainties

• New Paradigm for water – Robust Decision Making,

Real Options Valuation ...

• TE 2100

• Water Infrastructure and Water White Paper

Joint GWP CEE/DMCSEE training: Drought management principles in UK by Trevor Bishop

Documents

Transcript of Joint GWP CEE/DMCSEE training: Drought management principles in UK by Trevor Bishop